Rational Security

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott talked over some of the various natsec stories blowing up headlines, including:

• “The Truth is Up There…And We Shot It Down.” Last week’s controversy over a Chinese spy balloon has blown up, as the United States and Canada have shot down a number of similar unidentified flying objects over their airspace in the past few days. But why is the Biden administration being so close-lipped about what these things are? Is there reason for concern?
• “Now I Know How Joan of Arc Felt.” Special Counsel Jack Smith appears to be turning up the heat on associates of former President Trump: former Vice President Pence is reportedly invoking both executive privilege and the Speech and Debate Clause to avoid testifying before a grand jury, while Smith is pushing to overcome another witness’s claim of attorney-client privilege on the basis of the crime-fraud exception. What should we make of these moves? What do they tell us about where the investigation is headed? 
• “Oh Nikki, You’re On Time, First in Line, It Blows My Mind.” Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley is the first Republican to officially step up and compete against former President Trump for the Republican nomination for president. Why declare now? And what does her candidacy mean for the race? 

For object lessons, Alan dipped back into his high school literature reading list and endorsed John Steinbeck’s “East of Eden.” Quinta recommended the Rolling Stone piece we’ve all been waiting for: a profile of influential right-wing sh*tposter @Catturd2. And Scott urged listeners to check out the band Television’s 1977 classic “Marquee Moon” in honor of its frontman Tom Verlaine, who passed away a few weeks ago.

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This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined once again by host emeritus Benjamin Wittes to talk through the week's various freak-outs, including:

• “We Found the 100th Luftballon.” Last week, a Chinese spy balloon floated over the United States, triggering a national freak-out that led to the cancellation of a major high-level summit between U.S. and Chinese leaders. Was this freak-out warranted? What does it tell us about U.S.-China relations?
• “SotFU.” President Biden delivered his second State of the Union address last night—and it was about as contentious as expected. How did he do? And how should we feel about this most vaunted of national institutions?
• “ChatOMG.” Over the past several weeks, countless Americans have had the chance to hash it out with ChatGPT, a large language-model artificial intelligence that is open to the public and will either revolutionize or devastate a thousand different human tasks, depending on who you ask. Just how revolutionary is ChatGPT? And is that a good thing or a bad thing?

For object lessons, Alan embraced his home state of Minnesota’s annual “name a snow plow” contest and its winner, “Yer a blizzard, Harry.” Quinta lamented the latest fatality resulting from Elon Musk’s takeover of Twitter: the end of its free API and the countless useful integrations it helped facilitate. Scott suggested that listeners check out David Romero’s 3D renderings of some of Frank Lloyd Wright’s most dramatic but never built designs, and implored Mr. Romero to put Wright’s “Plan for Greater Baghdad” higher on his project list. And Ben saluted the service of the “Little Ass Projector” he’s used in countless special military operations, which he lost in battle earlier this week. 

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This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by Lawfare special Georgia correspondent Anna Bower to talk through the week's big national security news stories, including:

• “You Gotta Know When to Fulton.” Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis has wrapped up her work with a special purpose grand jury investigating former President Donald Trump and his associates for potential 2020 election interference, and has said that charging decisions will be forthcoming. But why did she oppose the public release of the grand jury’s report? And what might that tell us about where the case is headed?
• “It Is Happening Again.” The brutal murder of Tyre Nichols by police officers in Memphis, Tennessee, is bringing back to the fore demands for police reform and greater accountability for the violence that our criminal justice system levels disproportionately against Black Americans. What lessons should we take from this case? Is there any way forward for change?
• “Drop the ‘Real.’ It’s Cleaner.” Former President Donald J. Trump is back on Facebook and Instagram, after parent company Meta lifted the permanent ban that had kept him off the platforms for promoting violence in relation to the Jan. 6 insurrection. Is this change the right policy? What might it mean moving forward?

For object lessons, Alan threw his endorsement behind HBO’s latest post-apocalyptic venture, The Last of Us. Quinta urged listeners to dig into the works of (Canadian) national treasure Alice Munro. Scott sang the praises of his new favorite kitchen multitasker. And Anna—seeing that the end of law school is nigh—decided to one-up Alan with her own post-apocalyptic recommendations, Station Eleven and The Leftovers.

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This week, Quinta and Scott were joined by special guest Michel Paradis to talk over the week's big national security news, including:

• “Don’t Tank my Chain.” Western allies of Ukraine have finally agreed to a way forward on providing the country with tanks, an issue which has proven surprisingly contentious in recent weeks. Germany will now allow its Leopard tanks to be used in the near-term while the United States will send Ukraine a series of M1 Abrams in the future, meeting the German demand for a matched U.S. contribution. Why was this so important to Germany? And what does it tell us about the broader state of the war?
• “Slight of the Valkyries.” The U.S. Treasury Department has slapped new sanctions on the Russian mercenary group, the Wagner Group, labeling them a Transnational Criminal Organization (“TCO”)—even as U.S. officials continue to resist calls to designate them a terrorist organization. What explains this reticence? Is it warranted?
• “Empire State of Mind.” For the first time, the New York City district attorney is trying someone under state criminal laws barring material support for terrorism that the state adopted following the September 11 attacks—even though the criminal suspect was never present in New York, but merely knew his actions would have repercussions there. Is this a sensible move? Or is there reason for pause? 

For object lessons, Quinta caved to the buzz and recommended that listeners give the podcast “Shameless Acquisition Target” a listen, just like they wanted. Scott urged folks to check out Katie Pruitt, who is on the verge of releasing her second album of Americana-influenced rock (and hopefully coming to the D.C. area on tour). And Michel shared a lovely story about whether this is the year of the cat or the year of the rabbit on the lunar calendar, and how the confusion started in the first place.

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This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott reunited on our new recording day to talk through the week’s big national security news, including:

• “Blocked and Muted.” Earlier this week, the Washington Post published a draft report by the Jan. 6 committee detailing how the far right used social media to organize and mobilize in the lead-up to the insurrection—the very same analysis that was reportedly kept out of the committee’s final report, over the objections of staffers. How substantial are these revelations? And how will they impact the committee’s legacy?
• “Sino the Times.” The Chinese government is reporting that its population has declined for the first time in 60 years, decades ahead of projections. Combined with the fallout of the regime’s reversal on zero-Covid policies and a lagging economy, some are taking this as a sign of difficult times to come for the People’s Republic. How should we read these reports? And what do they mean for the China-U.S. relationship?
• “Raising the Roof.” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has warned that the federal government is beginning “extraordinary measures” to avoid a debt default, as the United States moves closer to the debt ceiling—without either party in Congress having an apparent plan for raising it. How serious a threat is this? What options might be available for addressing it?

For object lessons, Alan recommended the Australian kids series “Bluey” for those listeners with toddlers they need to keep occupied. Quinta, fresh off her vacation to the Grand Canyon, recommended an unlikely book: an authoritative account of everyone who has ever died there. And Scott passed along the best damn lentil soup recipe ever.

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Hey there, Rational Security listeners! We have a quick programming note for you:

Due to some scheduling conflicts both among us co-hosts and with Lawfare’s broader podcast production schedule, we are moving Rational Security’s release date from Wednesday to Thursday from this week moving forward.

This does unfortunately mean you will have to wait an extra day for this week’s episode. But it also means that we’ll be able to bring you new episodes that are meatier, newsier, and more B-roll-y than ever moving forward.

Thanks for bearing with us, and we will see you on Thursday.

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This week, a Quinta-less Alan and Scott were joined by their Lawfare colleagues senior editor Molly Reynolds and managing editor Tyler McBrien to talk over some copycat-ing that's been taking place in the national security space, including:

• “Hoppin’ the Fence at Lulapalooza.” In a clear echo of the Jan. 6 insurrection, followers of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro sacked the country’s parliament this past week, just days after his successor Lula da Silva was sworn in—and while Bolsonaro himself was visiting former U.S. President Trump at his Mar-a-Lago estate. What’s the relationship between Jan. 6 and Brazil’s recent experience? Is this the beginning of a dangerous global trend?
• “The Divider House Rules.” After fifteen votes, Rep. Kevin McCarthy is now the Speaker of the House. But to get there, he had to make a lot of concessions—many of which are now showing their face in the House rules and in committee appointments, while others remain secret. What constraints has McCarthy accepted in order to win office? And will they mean for the coming Congress?
• “C’mon, Man!” Several months after FBI agents raised former President Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate to recover classified documents, lawyers for current President Biden have acknowledged that they located a few classified documents from his time as vice president in Biden’s private office as well. Critics in Congress and elsewhere are crying out that this reflects a double-standard, but does it? How big a deal is this, and what will it mean for the ongoing Mar-a-Lago investigation?

For object lessons, Alan passed along Rick Martinez's winter-friendly recipe for pozole verde. Scott recommended revisiting an old classic, Louis Menand's “The Metaphysical Club,” as a reflection on the emergence of pragmatism as an American intellectual tradition. Molly endorsed Melissa Clark's latest cookbook, “Dinner in One,” even if you have to go to the bottom of the ocean to get a copy. And Tyler invoked Kyle Chayka's concept of "ambient tv" to justify his viewing of season 3 of “Emily in Paris.”

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This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by co-host emeritus Benjamin Wittes to talk through the big natsec news stories starting off the new year, including:

• “Watch Out, You Might Get What You’re After.” As we recorded, the Freedom Caucus was in the midst of burning down the House, denying the Republican majority the ability to appoint Kevin McCarthy as Speaker through three consecutive ballots. Where might this lead? And what more should we expect from the 118th Congress? 
• “Title and … Reversed?” The Supreme Court interrupted its holiday break to consider whether Republican-led states should be allowed to intervene in a case wherein a lower court ordered the end of Title 42 policies, which impose draconian immigration restrictions on the basis of the COVID-19 public health emergency. What could the Supreme Court’s intervention mean for these policies? And what does their persistence tell us about immigration politics in our country?
• “A Boom Market for Things That Go Boom.” U.S. arms exports to NATO allies nearly doubled in 2022, due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But what might becoming an even larger arms exporter mean for U.S. foreign policy? 

For object lessons, Alan recommended the teen revenge flick, "Do Revenge." Quinta endorsed Kate Beaton's new graphic novel, "Ducks: Two Years in the Oil Sands." Scott issued a mea culpa for his recent lapses in Muppet knowledge and independently confirmed that yes, in fact, the new "Willow" television series is in fact good. And Ben urged listeners who might find themselves in NYC to check out Mike Birbiglia's latest stage show, "The Old Man and the Pool."

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For their end-of-the-year episode, Alan, Quinta, and Scott took on a number of hard-hitting questions posed by you, the listeners, including:

• What did Quinta mean when she referenced "the radical political statement" of the Star Wars series Andor?
• How should we grade Biden as a foreign policy president? Has he made America credible again?
• Will recent mass shootings make Congress more open to any sort of "domestic terrorism" legislation?
• What delay tactics did former President Trump use in the courts, and what can be done to stop others from doing the same?
• Who wins, werewolf or vampire? And how?
• How would the Afghan Adjustment Act provide legal protections for Afghans who fled the Taliban in the final days of the U.S. military presence? And what is stopping Congress from enacting it?
• Why has the United States let Turkey bully Stockholm and Helsinki over NATO membership? 
• How can we get Americans to care about foreign policy? 
• Which Muppet does each host identify with most strongly and why?

They also passed along listener-submitted object lessons, including:

• The World Affairs Councils of America network, a group of grassroots nonprofits from all over the country that are dedicated to promoting international affairs knowledge at the local level. 
• “How Not to Network a Nation” by Benjamin Peters, an interesting book that contrasts the Soviet and American attempts to build early computer networks, focusing on the competition that made the Soviet attempts flounder, and the state-subsidized programs that made the American attempts succeed.
• Net Assessment, the War on the Rocks' bi-weekly journal club podcast that the listener considers the "serious and professional" Rational Security (cue Quinta's eye-rolling).
• Bag Man, a seven-part podcast miniseries by Rachel Maddow about the Spiro Agnew scandal.

Finally, listener Mike shared his favorite cocktail of the year—a variant of the standard Gold Rush formula that swaps Nocino or another walnut liqueur out for a third of the honey syrup—and asked each host their own. Alan endorsed any and all cocktails involving miso paste. Quinta endorsed her old stand-by the Dark and Stormy, while also recommending hot mulled cider for the season (which Scott supplemented by recommending the addition of some citrus fruit, demerara sugar, and star anise, plus a spike of bourbon and cognac). And Scott passed along the Diplomatic Handshake, a phenomenal cocktail from Local Jones in Denver, CO, the recipe for which he'll share on social media as soon as he has their permission...

Happy holidays everyone, and here's hoping for a fantastic New Year! We will see you in 2023...

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This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were once again joined by Congress maven Molly Reynolds to hash through some of the week's big natsec news, including:

• “Don’t Fear the Referr(als).” As its presumed end draws nigh with the new Congress, the Jan. 6 committee is racing to bring its work to a close. Yesterday it voted to make four sets of criminal referrals, including for former President Trump. It also released a 100-page draft executive summary for its forthcoming report. What more should we expect from the committee? And what impact will these steps have?
• “The Grapes of Vlad.” The U.S. Congress sent a strong message of support to Ukraine this week by committing $45 billion in U.S. assistance, even more than requested by the Biden Administration. But there are few signs that Russia’s poor performance thus far is threatening Russian President Vladimir Putin’s control of the country, who seems to be settling in for a long-haul strategy of waiting out Western and Ukrainian resistance. What trajectory is this conflict on as it approaches the one-year mark? Where do we think it’s likely headed?
• “Showdown at the O.K. Corral.” The Republican Party is set to take control of the House in January. But who will be leading them remains up in the air, as majority leader Kevin McCarty is still struggling to secure enough support from the far right wing of his party. His supporters are circling the wagon, most recently by publicly wearing “O.K.” pins signaling their support for “Only Kevin.” But can he get across the threshold? And at what cost? 

For object lessons, Alan recommended the overlooked spy drama "The Courier" for all his fellow Cumberbitches. Quinta passed along her favorite recipe for holiday cookies. Scott re-upped his (well-reviewed!) eggnog recipe and recommended another holiday classic: the Lion's Tail. And Molly urged everyone suffering from World Cup withdrawal to check out NPR's "The Last Cup."

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