Rational Security

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by serial guest Lawfare executive editor Natalie Orpett to talk through the week's big national security news, including:

• “Surly Intervention.” Desperate circumstances in the island nation of Haiti have both Haitians and the international community thinking seriously about another international intervention. But no one seems excited about the prospect, or eager to lead it. How should the international community be approaching this situation?
• “What’s the Penalty for Inequal Substitution?” The Biden administration finally negotiated the freedom of WNBA Star Brittany Griner this past week, but at a steep cost: the freedom of notorious Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout. And she leaves behind her another American, Paul Whelan, who has been in Russian prison since 2018. Was the trade worth making? How should the United States handle these difficult hostage-taking cases?
• “Justice Delayed is Justice in Stride.” Nearly thirty-four years after the Pan Am 103 bombing, the Justice Department has secured custody over Abu Agila Masud, a former Libyan intelligence operative believed to have built the bomb for, and played a key role in, the operation. How big a victory is this capture? How is the Justice Department likely to approach his prosecution?

For object lessons, Alan embraced his inner Trekkie and endorsed the newest Star Trek series, "Star Trek: Strange New Worlds." Quinta endorsed Don Delillo's classic 1985 novel "White Noise," soon to be a feature film from Noah Baumbach. Scott encouraged listeners to incorporate folk guitarist John Fahey's 1968 album "The New Possibility" into their holiday music routine. And Natalie gave a few recommendations from her recent dive into short stories, including T. Coraghessan Boyle's short story "Princess" in a recent issue of the New Yorker and the late Hillary Mantel's collection of short stories, "The Assassination of Margaret Thatcher."

Also, Rational Security will be doing its listener-submitted end-of-year episode later this month! So be sure to send any topics you want us to discuss or object lessons you want to share to [email protected]. 

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This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were reunited after a few weeks apart to talk through the week's big national security news, including:

• “In the Land of the Blind, the One-Eyed Man is Still Guilty of Seditious Conspiracy.” The jury in the Oath Keepers trial came back last week, convicting every defendant of at least one criminal offense—including the controversial charge of seditious conspiracy. What might this mean for other Jan. 6 investigations moving forward?
• “Morality? Puh-leeze.” Weeks of protests in Iran finally seemed to bear fruit last week when a regime official signaled that the morality police may be disbanded and laws requiring that women wear hijabs be repealed. But other regime figures don’t seem on-board with that solution. Is this a sign that protests are succeeding? Where might they go from here?
• “Les Fleurs du MAL.” The litigation that led Judge Aileen Cannon to appoint a special master to review evidence collected by the FBI from former President Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate this past summer has finally culminated in its final form: an 11th Circuit ruling reversing Judge Cannon’s order and disbanding the process altogether. Where will the investigation go from here?

For object lessons, Alan celebrated Quinta and Ben's silver screen debut. Quinta recommended Rachel Maddow's new podcast series "Ultra." And Scott provided an essential Muppet holiday special update, flagging both that "A Muppet Christmas Carol" was being restored to its original form on Disney+ on 12/11 as well as an online version of the 1987 classic, "A Muppet Family Christmas." 

Also, Rational Security will be doing its listener-submitted end-of-year episode later this month! So be sure to send any topics you want us to discuss or object lessons you want to share to [email protected]. 

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Quinta and Scott co-hosted sans Alan, but were joined by the co-hosts of the Carnegie Council's The Doorstep Podcast, Nikolas Gvosdev and Tatiania Serafin! They talked through the week's big national security news, including:

• “Paper Rocks Censors.” China has erupted in protests against Xi Jinping’s draconian zero-COVID policies, with thousands of Chinese citizens holding up a blank white sheet of paper as a sign of their discontent. Will these “white paper” protests make a difference in China? How should the United States respond?
• “A Cheney Might Shoot You in the Face, But They’d Never Stab You in the Back.” Last week, the Washington Post reported that more than a dozen current and past staffers on the Jan. 6 committee are angry with co-chair Liz Cheney for decisions to focus the committee’s final report on conduct related to former President Trump. Is there merit to these complaints or do they seem overblown?
• “Much Guaido About Nothing?” The Biden administration is easing sanctions on Venezuela, as talks loom between the incumbent Maduro regime and recognized government-in-exile of opposition leader Juan Guaido. Does this signal a major shift in U.S. policy towards Venezuela? Or are those condemning the move overblowing the situation?

As for object lessons, Quinta engaged in a bit of self-promotion over her recent Atlantic piece on the forthcoming Supreme Court case Moore v. Harper. Scott indulged in a Werner Herzog impression to recommend a new documentary directed by his son, "Last Exit: Space." Nikolas urged listeners to check out a recent interview with former German Chancellor Angela Merkel on her legacy and the current state of affairs in Europe. And Tatiana poured one out for free speech and passed along a recent article in New York Magazine, "Do You Have a Right Not to be Lied To?"

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This week, a Quinta-less Alan and Scott welcomed Lawfare's dynamic associate editor duo, Katherine Pompilio and Hyemin Han, on to the show to talk through the week's big national security news stories, including:

• “Going Full Cleve.” Last week, former President Donald Trump announced his intention to once again run for president—in spite of the Republicans’ weak showing in the midterm elections and his own impending legal troubles. What does Trump’s announcement mean for 2024 and after? 
• “A Mueller Mulligan?” Trump’s announcement that he was once again running for president in turn led Attorney General Merrick Garland to make his own announcement last Friday: that he was appointing another Special Counsel to take over the investigations into Trump’s interference in the 2020 election results and mishandling of classified records. Was this the right move? How will the Special Counsel’s appointment impact the investigations—and Trump’s political future?
• “Pyongyanking Our Chain.” North Korea has launched a new ICBM that it claims can deliver nuclear weapons anywhere in the United States. Should this threat be taken seriously or is it a bluff? And is the Biden administration doing enough to respond?

For object lessons, Alan shared the tale of Lawfare's biggest animal fan, Katherine's African Grey parrot Moby. Scott passed along the late Michael Gerson's essay on dropping his youngest son off at college as a wonderful meditation on parenthood. Katherine shared her passion for soft jazz, and recommended the album "Ethiopics, Vol. 4: Ethio Jazz 1969-1974" as a great dive into Ethiopia's own early 1970s jazz scene. And Hyemin endorsed a show she recently took in at the Brooklyn Academy of Music: "Trojan Women," which beautifully translated a Greek tragedy through the Korean storytelling form of pansori.

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• “Red Dead Redemption.” Expectations of a “red wave” in the 2022 midterm elections came up short this week, as Democrats retained control of the Senate and expanded their control in the states while Republicans only appear to gain control of the House by the slimmest of margins. How will these election results impact the security of our democracy moving forward?  
• “Negotiating a Peace Entreaty.” Even as Russian forces beat a retreat from Kherson, some officials within the Biden administration—most notably, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley—are reportedly becoming more inclined to push for a negotiated peace with Russia, particularly as the winter months slow down the pace of fighting. Russia, meanwhile, responded to a speech by Ukrainian President Volodmyr Zelensky outlining a 10 step plan for peace with a new barrage of missile attacks. What are the pros and cons of such negotiations? And how might they impact the conflict, and its attendant risks of escalation? (When the team recorded, it seemed possible that a Russian missile had landed on Polish soil, killing two civilians; as of Wednesday morning, NATO now says the blast was likely caused by a Ukrainian air defense missile and was unintentional.)
• “He Said, Xi Said.” President Biden sat down with Chinese President Xi Jinping this past week for their first face-to-face meeting as presidents on the margins of the G20 meeting. Both sides reportedly committed to easing tensions between the two countries and resuming work towards shared challenges, such as climate change. What explains this change in tack? Will it stick?

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This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by Brookings Institution Middle East expert Natan Sachs to talk over the week's big (non-U.S. election) national security news, including:

• “Bibi Got Back.” Last week, an unprecedented fifth national election in the last four years returned controversial former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to power, at the head of a coalition including several far-right nationalist parties. What does his return to office mean for the future of Israel and the region? And its relations with the United States?
• “COP Out.” The United Nations’ 27th annual Convention of Parties (also known as “COP27”) is playing host to world leaders in Sharm-al-Sheikh, Egypt, this week, where some are hoping to find new consensus on how to combat climate change. Are countries taking these challenges seriously? What are these efforts likely to look like moving forward?
• “Everybody Toots.” Elon Musk’s purchase and dramatic reorientation of Twitter is begging to drive users to other social media platforms, including the decentralized Mastodon network. What will Musk’s changes mean for the future of disinformation and content moderation, both within Twitter and outside of it?

For object lessons, Alan endorsed hunting the world's most dangerous game: man (with paintballs). Quinta passed along a useful reference on the state of crime in the United States and the way it is being used in the midterm elections. Scott recommended everyone try a sip of his long neglected workplace colleague. And Natan celebrated the pandemic perseverance of his office jade plants as a sign of hope in dark times.

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This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott shook off their post-Halloween sugar comas to hash through some of the week's big national security news stories, including:

• “A Home Invasion in the House.” A man connected to various online conspiracies broke into the San Francisco home of Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi and violently assaulted her husband, all as part of a plot to kidnap and torture her. What is to blame for this type of violence? Are we taking it seriously enough?
• “First (R)use?” The Biden administration’s recently released Nuclear Posture Review has taken many progressives by surprise, as it appears to walk back candidate Biden’s commitment to a policy against first use. Is this criticism fair? What should we make of the Biden administration’s nuclear strategy?
• “Trust and the Fourth Estate.” The Justice Department has codified new guidelines putting significant restrictions on when and how prosecutors can subpoena and arrest journalists. Are these restrictions well-founded or do they go too far? 

For object lessons, Alan recommended his favorite recent audiobook, Daniel Immerwahr's "How to Hide an Empire." Quinta threw her support behind the season of Fall, and shared a photo of some of its lovely colors (see our show page). And Scott recommended a cocktail named after the only way worth living: Naked and Famous.

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This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by China expert and law professor Julian Ku to talk through some of the week's big national security news, including:

• “Xi Loves Me, Xi Loves Me Not.” At the Chinese Communist Party’s 20th National Congress this past weekend, Chinese President Xi Jinping was able to not only secure his leadership over the party and country for a third consecutive five-year term but successfully staff the party apparatus with his hand-picked loyalists. What does the Congress tell us about where China is headed under Xi’s rule?
• “Huawei or the Highway.” Less than 24 hours after the close of the CCP Congress in Beijing, Attorney General Merrick Garland and his most senior deputies unveiled a series of indictments against Chinese nationals alleged to have engaged in covert campaigns to interfere with the investigation into Huawei, penetrate U.S. research institutions, and curb protests by Chinese nationals in the United States. Is the timing a message or just a coincidence? How should the Biden administration be responding?
• “4th and Elon(g).” Despite his best efforts, Elon Musk’s purchase of Twitter is set to go through this Friday. But in the last few days, there have been mutterings that the purchase might be subjected to a national security review by the federal government. Are these rumors just Elon’s Hail Mary attempt at killing the deal? Or might they have some merit? And what will either outcome mean for Twitter?

For object lessons, Alan recommended the new film "Argentina, 1985." Quinta endorsed the novel "Grey Bees" by Andrey Kurkov for those wanting to sample some modern Ukrainian literature. Scott urged listeners who share his space obsessions to check out "For All Mankind," one of the best shows he's seen on television. And Julian recommended the BBC documentary series "Rome: Empire Without Limit" by Mary Beard for those wanting to reflect a bit on the rise and decline of great powers.

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This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott flew solo to talk through some of the week's big national security news stories, including:

• “Jake, Mr. Sullivan if You’re NSSty.” The Biden administration finally unveiled its long awaited (and overdue) National Security Strategy last week, through a high-profile event at Georgetown University featuring National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan. Does it hit the mark? Does it even matter? 
• “Big Subpoena Energy.” The Jan. 6 committee confidently closed its last live session with a bang last week, in the form of a unanimous vote to subpoena former President Trump for his testimony. Trump responded with a 14-page rant a few days later that repeated many of his grievances over the 2020 election but did not address whether he would comply. Why did the committee take this step? Is there any way to compel Trump to cooperate? Will it need to?
• “Is it SIGINT or SIJINT?” The Biden administration has issued a new Executive Order limiting its collection of signals intelligence, as part of an effort to come to agreement with the European Union’s legal system and its stringent privacy protections. Will these new arrangements be invalidated by European courts like their two predecessors? Or could they finally be up to snuff?

For object lessons, Alan recommended the impressive (if highly depressing) new European sci-fi film "Vesper." Quinta seconded Carlos Lozada's takedown of one of the Senate's most milquetoast members. And Scott celebrated the 90th birthday of a real legal legend and all around phenomenal human, Judge Guido Calabresi. 

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This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by beloved Lawfare contributor and UVA Law professor Ashley Deeks, fresh from her latest stint at the White House. They hashed through some of the week's big national security news, including:

• “The Bridge and Pummel Crowd.” Ukraine’s destruction of a symbolic bridge linking Russia to Crimea has observers worried about a new round of escalation, as Russia responded with missile strikes on a range of civilian targets across the country, including a German consulate in Kyiv, with promises of more to come. Are we entering a new, brutal phase of the conflict? What can be done to stop its civilian toll—or to keep the escalatory spiral from spinning out of control?
• “Finally, Some Decency and Moderation on the Supreme Court.” Last week, the Supreme Court took up not one but two—albeit, two closely related—cases that center on how to apply Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act, a law that provides internet companies with immunity for liability arising from user-generated content they host and protects their ability to moderate content. What might this judicial scrutiny mean for the future of content moderation on the internet?
• “1,001 Arabian Slights.” Saudi Arabia’s decision to cut oil production—a move expected to drive up oil prices and slow the global economy, to the benefit of Russia and other producers—has some members of Congress up in arms. This is especially true as it came on the end of a summer visit by President Biden that controversially seemed to signal a willingness to thaw relations with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, which have grown icy since his involvement in the 2018 killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. What do these steps mean for the future of the U.S.-Saudi relationship?

For object lessons, Alan shared his wife's love for ch-ch-ch-chia pets. Quinta shared a story of voter fraud and corruption in one of America's greatest institutions: NPS's Fat Bear Week competition. Scott shared his joyfully music-filled week and urged listeners to check out his favorite album of all time, celebrating its 20th anniversary. And Ashley passed along a revealing story about the fake Vermeer discovered at the National Gallery of Art. 

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