Rational Security

This week, Scott sat down with Senior Editors Kate Klonick and Eric Columbus to talk through the week’s big national security news stories, including: 

• “An Un-Airing of Grievances.” Since the assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk, some supporters of his—including several figures within the Trump administration—have actively sought to have individuals who have said critical or purportedly insensitive things about Kirk removed from their jobs or otherwise punished. This arguably came to a head after Jimmy Kimmel Live! was pulled from the air following statements by FCC Chairman Brendan Carr suggesting networks might face additional regulatory scrutiny for not addressing alleged misinformation about Kirk’s killer he purportedly put forward. And while Kimmel is now back on the air, several major local affiliates are refusing to air his show. How do these efforts comport with the First Amendment? And what do they mean for freedom of speech regardless?
• “You Can’t Spell Appeasement Without App.” After months of negotiations—during which it has held off on enforcing a statutorily mandated ban—the Trump administration has announced that it has reached a deal with China regarding the disposition of the social media platform TikTok and its operation in the United States. But the public details of the deal have been few and far between, and much more remains to be worked out. How close to a deal are the parties in actuality? And does it address the national security concerns motivating Congress’s ban in the first place?
• “Playing with White House Money.” The Trump administration has been rocked by two major corruption-related stories in the past week. First, the Justice Department is reported to have closed an investigation into White House immigration czar Tom Homan, who reportedly accepted $50,000 from undercover FBI agents prior to joining the administration on the understanding that he would help the donors gain access to the incoming Trump administration. And second, new details suggest that the recent deal to permit chip sales to the UAE were tied up in a variety of major cryptocurrency deals that enriched both the Trump Organization and others in the Trump administration—only the latest in a long history of suspect cryptocurrency transactions by Trump-related businesses. How big a problem are these transactions? And what do they tell us about the state of corruption on the second Trump administration?

In object lessons, Eric marked the Jewish New Year with a novel recommendation: “To Rise Again at a Decent Hour,” by Joshua Ferris, a midlife-crisis tale woven through Judaism, baseball, and dentistry—two subjects close to his heart, and one that isn’t. Scott, meanwhile, is back on the D.C. concert circuit and wants you to join him at Union Stage on October 14 to see Katie Pruitt, whose rock-infused Americana sound he thinks deserves a bigger audience. Kate rounded things out with a little blue hippo—specifically the souvenir version of the famous Egyptian figurine better known as “William,” a reminder of a past mother-daughter trip to Paris that involved butchering French while scouring the Louvre.

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For this week's very special episode on Rational Security's 10th anniversary, Scott sat down with a slew of co-hosts emeritus, each of whom brought their own topic to discuss.

• Shane Harris flagged the connections between online radicalization and the young men behind many recent public acts of gun violence, including the alleged perpetrator of the Charlie Kirk killing;
• Benjamin Wittes insisted we are STILL not talking enough about Russian drone incursions and other forms of gray zone warfare in Eastern Europe;
• Quinta Jurecic brought some statistics about the success (or not) of the Trump administration's federalization of law enforcement in D.C. (and elsewhere) that are worth contemplating; and
• Alan Rozenshtein asked how it can still be true that no one but him seems to care about the Trump administration blatantly disregarding the TikTok ban.

In object lessons, Shane is basking in the glory of HBO’s “Somebody Somewhere”—partly because his buddy Jeff Hiller just won an Emmy for his role in it. Ben praises Adam Boehler—and even Donald Trump—for helping secure Elizabeth Tsurkov’s release. Alan is definitely not using this opportunity to use Pacific Rim for his object lesson—really—instead recommending fantasy mystery “The Tainted Cup,” by Robert Jackson Bennett. Scott takes us into orbit with Samantha Harvey’s “Orbital,” a lyrical meditation on life and reflection in space. And Quinta dives into the future with “Empire of AI,” by Karen Hao, a deeply reported look at OpenAI and its role in shaping the technology’s trajectory

Last call to help us celebrate Lawfare’s 15th anniversary! Get your tickets now to join us this Friday, 9/19, to hear from some of your favorite Lawfare people past and present, take a look back on the key moments that have shaped our first 15 years, and get a sneak peek into what’s coming next.

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This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Benjamin Wittes and Natalie Orpett, and Professor of Law at Cardozo Law School Rebecca Ingber, to talk through the week’s big national security news, including:

• “Uninvited Aerial Vehicles.” The Polish government is claiming that nineteen armed Russian UAVs penetrated its airspace last night. While Russians are suggesting no attack was intended, Poland has invoked Article IV of the NATO Treaty and worked with allied NATO aircraft to shoot the drones down. What might be happening here? And does it mean we’re on our way to World War III as some are suggesting?
• “Bibi is a Killer Negotiator. No, Wait—Switch That.” Within days of the Trump administration tabling another ceasefire proposal—and, by some accounts, making progress in pressuring Hamas to accept it—Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu authorized a set of missile strikes that killed the leaders of Hamas’s political wing in nearby Qatar. It’s the first such move in a Gulf country, many of which have moved towards normalization with Israel through the Trump-backed Abraham Accords. What explains Israel’s actions? And what do they portend for the conflict in Gaza and the region as a whole?
• “Cruise Control.” A week has passed since the Trump administration took the controversial step of targeting a boat alleged to be smuggling narcotics at the direction of the Venezuelan criminal organization Tren de Aragua with lethal force. The Trump administration hasn’t repeated the move, but it’s said it intends to. And U.S. military assets—including strategic assets whose use in a counter-narcotics military campaign is far from clear—have continued to build up in the region, leading some to believe that a broader campaign against Venezuela itself may yet be in the offing. How likely is a broader campaign? And could its implications be, legally and politically? 

In Object Lessons, Ben is cheering on a cadre of former FBI agents suing Kash Patel over their firings, and in the process, sings the praises of an accidental hero—the “Drizz.” Natalie, meanwhile, gets très littéraire with “The Elegance of the Hedgehog,” by Muriel Barbery—a book so French that almost nothing happens. Scott rang in his 8th wedding anniversary the traditional way: getting drunk in the basement and falling in love all over again—with The Paper. And Bec wonders just how much coin it’s going to take to change the Department of Defense to the Department of War.

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This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Anna Bower, Tyler McBrien, and Peter Harrell to talk through the week’s big national security news stories, including:

• “Faginomics.” With the recent announcement that the U.S. government would be taking a 10% stake in the company Intel, the Trump administration has ushered in a new era of state-guided industrial policy, fueled by concerns of major power competition, particularly around the race to AI. How does this new policy intersect with its other novel economic priorities, such as the imposition of tariffs? And how legally viable is it, given present (and potentially future) legal challenges?
• “Ménage à Trois.” On the margins of the recent meeting of the China- and Russia-led Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a point of warmly (and very publicly) embracing Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping—a move many have taken as a clear shot across the bow at the Trump administration, which has been in heated economic negotiations with India over tariffs and trade relations. What does this exchange say about the Trump administration’s handling of the U.S. relationship with India—and other key U.S. relationships?
• “Midnight Planes Going Nowhere.” In an emergency hearing over the holiday weekend, federal judge Sparkle Sooknanan stopped the Trump administration from deporting hundreds of unaccompanied Guatemalan minor migrants to their home country—a move that the government of Guatemala has now claimed that it invited. What should we make of this move by the Trump administration? And how does it fit within its broader immigration crackdown?

In object lessons, Tyler biked to City Island, NY, discovering a charming little enclave with great food, shops, and beaches. Sticking with the New York theme, Anna recommends “John Proctor is the Villain,” a play by a writer from her Georgia hometown that’s so good it’s making women cry. Scott, meanwhile, left New York behind to live his best Neapolitan life with a new backyard pizza oven that can achieve the appropriate temp for a puffy crust. And Peter’s been reading “When the Clock Broke,” a reminder that the 1990s may have been the dress rehearsal for our current political dumpster fire, all the while keeping an eye on challenges to Trump v. Casa.

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This week, Scott sat down with old and new Lawfare colleagues—Benjamin Wittes, Renée DiResta, and Michael Feinberg—to talk through the week’s big national security news stories, including:

• “An Old Fashioned Anti Raid.” Former Trump National Security Advisor (turned Trump critic) John Bolton got a rude awakening this past week when the FBI conducted a raid at his home, reportedly on the grounds that he is believed to have retained classified information from his time in office. It’s the latest in a recent spate of (well publicized) investigations targeting Trump’s critics and enemies, including a series of mortgage fraud investigations into Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook (who Trump now purports to have removed for cause), New York Attorney General Letitia James (which coincided with a photo shoot that Justice Department official Ed Martin did, uninvited, outside of her home), and Senator Adam Schiff. How big a threat are such investigations to Trump’s enemies? And what will their long-term implications be for the Justice Department?
• “Uncleared and Present Danger.” Last week, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard pulled security clearances from 37 current and former intelligence officials on the purported grounds that they had “abused the public trust by politicizing and manipulating intelligence, leaking classified intelligence without authorization, and/or committing intentional egregious violations of tradecraft standards.” Those affected range from current senior intelligence officials to former officials who have been out of government for years to current senior congressional staffers. What are the consequences likely to be of Gabbard’s actions and what does it show about the Trump administration’s approach to national security agencies?
• “Blue Sky Thinking.” In response to a state law mandating age verification for anyone seeking to use social media platforms, Bluesky has opted to shut down its services in the state of Mississippi. What does this sort of response tell us about the trajectory of state and federal regulations, and what the impact might ultimately be on the internet?

In Object Lessons, Ben is letting The Algorithm light his way—literally—with solar-powered sunflower lights. Renée, not to be outdone, also bows before our algorithmic overlord and wants you to stream Red Bull’s YouTube dance battles. Scott is using his green thumb to plant the seeds of some versatile green fruit. And Michael is going less horticultural, more horrifying, by planting horror movie props around his house—because nothing says “I love you” like a severed head in the fridge.

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This week, Scott sat down with his colleagues Anna Bower, Chris Mirasola, and Mykhailo Soldatenko to talk through the week’s big national security news, including:

• “Wings and a Prayer.” The Ukraine conflict has been the subject of intense shuttle diplomacy over the past week, as President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin flew to a meeting in Alaska last Friday, only for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and a cadre of European leaders to fly to Washington, DC, to meet with Trump yesterday at the White House. What do we know about their conversations? And could this be a turning point in the conflict?
• “Capital Offense.” It’s been more than a week since President Trump chose to make law enforcement in Washington, DC—a city he has derided as “taken over by violent gangs and bloodthirsty criminals”—a national priority, by deploying hundreds of National Guard personnel and federal law enforcement officers to the streets and seeking to assert federal control over the police department, in ways that triggered a legal challenge by the city. What is motivating this major policy effort? And where does it seem likely to lead?
• “The Ep Files: I Want to Believe.” The Trump administration is reportedly installing a new “co-”deputy director at the FBI, in part because of controversy the current incumbent—former right-wing radio host Dan Bongino—has courted relating to the release of the so-called “Epstein Files.” And it’s indicative of the major problems that these files—and the potential that they may say something about President Trump’s relationship with the notorious sex offender for whom they are named—are causing President Trump and his administration. What’s driving this rare point of dissent among the president’s core supporters? And what ramifications could it have for our justice system?

In object lessons, Anna hyped a new Kelce brothers podcast episode that featured some girl that Travis is dating. Chris recommended a crafty parenting hack: taking your kid to Michael’s for some unplugged, creative fun. Scott channeled his inner influencer, telling you where you can find the newest, hippest dog shirts. And Mykhailo brought us back down to Earth with a recommendation of Timothy Snyder’s YouTube series, The Making of Modern Ukraine, for a dive into the context and real causes for the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

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This week, a rejuvenated Scott returned from vacation to sit down with his Lawfare colleagues Benjamin Wittes, Daniel Byman, and Kate Klonick to talk through some of the week’s big national security news, including:

• “Occupational Hazards.” The Israeli government led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has stated its intent to occupy Gaza City, the last segment of Gaza not under Israeli military control, and displace its civilians to “designated safe areas.” In an apparent response to both domestic and international outrage at the plan, Netanyahu later disavowed any intent to annex Gaza—even as he acknowledged calls to do so from within his coalition—and finally laid out a rough Israeli end-goal for Gaza: namely, a non-Israeli governing entity, led by neither Hamas nor the Palestinian Authority, operating under complete Israeli security control. But will this be enough to assuage these concerns? And what does it tell us about where the Gaza conflict may be headed?
• “The Rake.” The Trump administration has struck a deal with chip manufacturers NVIDIA and AMD, allowing them to export certain high-end (but not frontier model) chips to Chinese companies engaging in AI research, among other relevant activities, so long as they share 15% of the profits with the government. It’s a move that has both Democrats and Republicans worried about major power competition with China crying foul, and lawyers raising serious doubts as to its legal viability. What appears to be driving this recent about-face? And what does it say about the trajectory of U.S. policy on AI (and China)?
• “The War on Drugs. But, Like, Actually.” According to the New York Times, President Trump has reportedly signed a secret order authorizing the use of military force against drug cartels his administration has designated as terrorist organizations. Exactly what sort of military action may result is not yet clear, but it already has legal and policy experts raising concerns on a number of different fronts. How big a move is this, and what actions might it yield?

In object lessons, Dan, in learning more about 18th-century rivalries, recommends the game Imperial Struggle. Ben, in cheerful outrage, revealed his plans for 100lbs of blue and yellow marking chalk. Scott, in humble apology, reveled in his new-found love of pizza beans. Kate, in cheerful anticipation, expects a weekend of reverie with 14 pounds of fruit and vegetables.

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This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Natalie Orpett, Kevin Frazier, and Tyler McBrien to talk through the week’s big national security news stories, including:

• “Feeding Frenzy.” The crisis in Gaza has reached a new, desperate stage. Months of a near total blockade on humanitarian assistance has created an imminent risk, if not a reality, of mass starvation among Gazan civilians. And it finally has the world—including President Donald Trump—taking notice and putting pressure on the Israeli government to change tack, including by threatening to recognize a Palestinian state. Now the Israeli government appears to be giving an inch, allowing what experts maintain is the bare minimum level of aid necessary to avoid famine into the country and even pursuing a few (largely symbolic) airlifts, while allowing other states to do the same. But how meaningful is this shift? And what could it mean for the trajectory of the broader conflict?
• “Hey, It Beats an AI Inaction Plan.” After months of anticipation, the Trump administration finally released its “AI Action Plan” last week. And despite some serious reservations about its handling of “woke AI” and select other culture war issues, the plan has generally been met with cautious optimism. How should we feel about the AI Action Plan? And what does it tell us about the direction AI policy is headed?
• “Pleas and No Thank You.” Earlier this month, the D.C. Circuit upheld then-Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin’s decision to nullify plea deals that several of the surviving 9/11 perpetrators had struck with those prosecuting them in the military commissions. How persuasive is the court’s argument? And what does the decision mean for the future of the tribunals?

In object lessons, Kevin highlighted a fascinating breakthrough from University of Texas engineers who developed over 1,500 AI-designed materials that can make buildings cooler and more energy efficient—an innovation that, coming from Texas, proves that necessity really is the mother of invention. Tyler took us on a wild ride into the world of Professional Bull Riders with a piece from The Baffler exploring the sport’s current state and terrifying risks. Scott brought a sobering but essential read from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace about how synthetic imagery and disinformation are shaping the Iran-Israel conflict. And Natalie recommended “Drive Your Plow Over the Bones of the Dead,” by Olga Tokarczuk, assuring us it’s not nearly as murder-y as it sounds.

Note: We will be on vacation next week but look forward to being back on August 13!

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Scott recorded this week’s special episode live from the 2025 Aspen Security Forum, where he sat down with a panel of top national security journalists—including co-host emeritus Shane Harris of The Atlantic, Mark Goldberg of the Global Dispatches podcast, and Alex Ward of the Wall Street Journal—to talk about some of the issues that have emerged at and around this year’s Forum, including:

• “Putting the Ass in Aspen.” Twenty-four hours before the Aspen Security Forum was set to begin, the Defense Department barred more than a dozen officials who had been publicly set to participate, for months, on the grounds that the Forum promotes “the evils of globalism.” What does this tell us about the Trump administration’s relationship to the foreign policy establishment?
• “Rolling Alone.” While U.S. officials were in short supply at the Forum, foreign officials were not, as foreign ministers and other officials from Europe, Asia, and other corners of the world had a heavy representation on the panels. And while those panels often addressed different topics, at least one common theme tended to emerge across them: the challenges of the new era of major power competition, especially at a moment when the United States seems especially skeptical of traditional alliances and multilateral institutions. What did we learn about the challenges these countries are facing? And what does it mean for the United States’ ability to strategically compete?
• “Deus Ex Machina.” If there is one topic that was represented at almost every panel at this year’s Forum, it is the question of Artificial Intelligence — how important it is, what it will do to solve the world’s problems, new problems it will cause, and all it will cost to win the race to perfecting it. But is AI really that important? Or does its ubiquity in national security conversation reflect more hype than substance?

For object lessons, Shane shared his latest piece for The Atlantic about an old man, a dog, and the CIA’s efforts to keep them apart. Scott endorsed the Aspen Security Forum itself and urged those not in attendance to check out Aspen’s recordings of the event—as well as the recordings of various side conversations he made, which will be up on the Lawfare Daily feed later this week. Mark recommended his new podcast with Anjali Dayal on the United Nations, To Save Us From Hell, which they release as part of his U.N. Dispatch newsletter. And Alex shared his quest to read a book about each U.S. president, what it’s taught him about how weird the presidents are, and the online community that’s helping him get through it.

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This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Benjamin Wittes and Eric Ciaramella to talk through the week’s big national security news stories, including:

• “With Arms Wide Open.” After years of open skepticism toward Ukraine (and uncharacteristic deference to Russia), it seems President Trump may have turned a page. His rhetoric has grown cooler toward Russian President Vladimir Putin, and he has proven more willing to provide arms to Ukraine, even over contrary efforts by some of his advisers—including an agreement to provide Ukraine with Patriot missiles and other U.S.-made, Europe-funded weapons. What explains this switch? And how durable is it likely to prove?
• “Hitting Foggy Bottom.” Just days after the Supreme Court removed a preliminary injunction, the State Department went forward with substantial personnel cuts, RIFing 1,350 foreign and civil service personnel in Washington, D.C. It’s all part of a much broader reorganization that State Department leadership claims will make the Department leaner or more efficient, even as it guts personnel working on issues disfavored by the Trump administration. 
• “Waiting for the Intel Impressment.” Since the Trump administration’s June 21 airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, a heated debate has raged over their effects. The administration maintains the strikes were “historically successful” and permanently set back the Iranian nuclear program. But media reports source to people within the intelligence community have suggested a much more limited effect. How should we weigh these competing claims? And when will we know the truth?

In object lessons, Ben asks for your public service in supporting Lawfare’s Public Service Fellowship. Scott pulled a Quinta with his recommendation of the New Yorker essay “Zohran Mamdani and Mahmoud Khalil Are in on the Joke,” by Hanif Abdurraquib. And Eric makes his summer travels epic by listening to the podcast, The Rest is History.

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