Rational Security

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Anna Bower, Tyler McBrien, and Kevin Frazier to talk through the week’s big national security news, including:

• “Aliens vs. Predators.” Despite forceful legal pushback—including by the U.S. Supreme Court—the Trump administration is working hard to continue its campaign to remove foreign aliens it accuses of pursuing a “predatory incursion” from the country using the Alien Enemies Act. How far will it go? And to what extent can the courts (or anyone else) stop them?
• “Aye Aye Robot.” Both the Biden and Trump administrations were fans of artificial intelligence (AI) and set out policies to incorporate it into government decision-making. But while the Biden administration focused much of its efforts on guardrails, the Trump administration has increasingly torn them down as part of a broader push to incorporate the nascent technology into government decision-making. What are the risks and potential benefits of this sort of government by AI? 
• “For Pete’s Sake.” Beleaguered Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth is more beleaguered than ever this week, after reports that, in addition to inadvertently sharing classified secrets with Atlantic reporter Jeffrey Goldberg, he also passed them to his wife, brother, and personal lawyer on another Signal thread. Meanwhile, a former adviser (and established Trump loyalist) went public with allegations that Hegseth’s management has led to chaos at the Defense Department and called for his resignation. Will this be enough for the Trump administration to cut bait and run? Or does his support in the MAGAsphere simply run too deep?

In object lessons, Tyler, fresh from biking adventures abroad, hyped the routes, photos, and resources on bikepacking.com, if physical exertion is your idea of relaxation. Anna, finding other ways to relax, came to the defense of The Big Short in helping to soothe her anxiety amid more current market upheaval. Doubling down on the “no relaxation without tension” theme, Scott’s outie binge-watched Severance while on vacation. And Kevin, very on-brand, was quick to bring us a feel-good story of a new community partnership to support AI skill-building in Austin-based nonprofits. 

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This week, Scott sat down with co-hosts emeritus Benjamin Wittes, Quinta Jurecic and Lawfare's new senior legal fellow James Pearce to talk through the week's biggest national security news stories, including:

• “Midnight Planes Going Anywhere.” The Supreme Court has weighed in on the Trump administration’s decision to quickly fly dozens of Venezuelan nationals to El Salvador with little to no meaningful process, holding that those detained had to be provided notice and an opportunity to challenge their removal, but only through habeas in their place of detention. Meanwhile, we are still awaiting the Court’s final decision on whether a lower court can direct the executive branch to seek the return of another man who was removed to El Salvador by mistake. What will these decisions mean for the Trump administration’s aggressive deportation policies?
• “All the King’s Horses and All the King’s Men, Won’t Be Able to Put Humphrey’s Together Again.” Watchers of the D.C. Circuit may have suffered whiplash this week, as an appellate panel reversed a district court’s conclusion that the Trump administration’s removal of statutorily protected members of the Merit Service Protection Board and National Labor Review Board was most likely unlawful, only for the panel itself to be reversed in short order by the whole en banc court. The issues now seem clearly poised for review by the Supreme Court. Is Humphrey’s Executor and other case law preserving independent agencies toast? Or might the Court stop short of killing independent agencies altogether?
• “A Duty of Pander.” Attorney General Pam Bondi punished a Justice Department attorney this week after he admitted to a federal court that he had not been provided adequate answers to some of the court’s questions. It’s the latest in a parade of disciplinary actions accusing attorneys of disloyalty for engaging in candor with the federal courts over the confusion that some of the Trump administration’s policies have caused. Is the Attorney General within her rights to crack down on these actions? And what impact will her demand for loyalty have on the Justice Department’s relationship with the federal courts?

For object lessons, Quinta recommended the movie "Margin Call" as a reflection on the last financial crisis, as we prepare for the next one. Ben brought attention to Russia's brutal and inhumane attack on a children's playground in Ukrainian President Volodmyr Zelensky's hometown of Kryvi Rih, which underscores just how committed Russia really is to peace. Scott shared his latest home pizza discovery—a one hour no-knead recipe for pan pizza crust from King Arthur's Baking—as well as his next experiment: an all edge pieces pan pizza. And James gave a double-header object lesson, sharing his participation in the Baker to Vegas footrace and his reading of another story about something even more inhuman: Mary Shelley's Frankenstein.

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This week, Scott joined his Lawfare colleagues Natalie Orpett and Eric Ciaramella to talk through the week’s big national security news, including:

• “In Mother Russia, Sometimes Bear Poke You.” Discussions over a possible broader ceasefire in Ukraine—beyond the temporary (and limited) energy and Black Sea ceasefire agreements last week—appear to have ground to a halt over Russian demands. Many observers suspect this is simply a stalling technique by Russian President Vladimir Putin, as Russia prepares for another offensive intended to improve his negotiating leverage. President Trump, meanwhile, in a rare swipe at the Russian dictator, has said he’s “pissed off.” But will Trump bring leverage to bear enough for Putin to budge? Or are the ceasefire negotiations like to stay stuck in the mud—and, if so, will Trump know who to blame?
• “Nuukin’ Futs.” Vice President J.D. Vance visited the northernmost U.S. military base in Greenland last week and delivered a speech in front of U.S. service members that accused Denmark of neglecting its Greenland protectorate and failing to adequately protect it from China and Russia—shortcomings that, in his telling, justify President Trump’s stated intent to gain U.S. control over the island nation. Is there any truth to Vance’s allegations? And will his remarks help or hurt the Trump administration’s purported objective of securing Greenland and improving U.S. access to its various resources? 
• “Third Term’s the Charm.” In an interview this week, President Trump insisted to reporters that he was serious about potentially pursuing a third term and suggested that there were “methods” by which he could do so, in spite of the 22nd Amendment’s two-term limitation on presidents. How seriously should we take his threat? Are there arguments that could carry water — and will it matter?

In object lessons, Natalie—tire-d of DC traffic—“spoke” highly of her beloved ebike. Scott, flying solo in NYC, curled up with his Kindle at Amor y Amargo, contemplating the question: how many Amaros does it take to make the perfect Sazerac? And Eric praised “Language City: The Fight to Preserve Endangered Mother Tongues in New York,” by Ross Perlin—a fascinating portrait of linguistic diversity and the fight to preserve it.

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This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Benjamin Wittes and Roger Parloff to talk through the week of the most Rational Security-esque of national security news stories ever, including: 

• “Oopsec.” In a strong contender for the most ridiculous national security story of the year, senior Trump administration officials appear to have planned a series of airstrikes in Yemen that took place earlier this month through the social messaging app Signal—and they appear to have included The Atlantic’s Editor-in-Chief Jeffrey Goldberg by mistake, giving him access to detailed war plans and internal policy discussions that he has now (mostly) made public. How irresponsible were the Trump administration’s actions? And what will the consequences be of this mistake?
• “Secrets, Lies, and Bureaucratic Red Tape.” The Trump administration employed the Alien Enemies Act to remove alleged members of the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua to a notorious prison in El Salvador last week, just before or perhaps just after (a point of ongoing inquiry) an order from a federal district court judge directed them not to. And now the Trump administration is invoking the state secrets privilege to avoid having to disclose more details regarding its policy choices. How firm is the legal ground that the Trump administration is operating on? And how will the courts handle it? 
• “How Do You Think We Keep These Shoes So White?” Leading white shoe law firm Paul, Weiss kissed the feet—or perhaps licked the boots—of President Trump this week in an effort to escape the highly discriminatory sanctions Trump recently imposed on them for their past ties with a lawyer who worked with the prosecution in his New York criminal case. What could their acquiescence mean for big law? And the legal industry more generally?

In object lessons, Roger is unwinding from court documents in English by diving into Walter Isaacson’s “Elon Musk” in French—because nothing says relaxation like a billionaire’s biography en français. Scott revisited his college years, reminded of Bob Dylan’s live 1966 performance of “The Royal Albert Hall Concert” after watching A Complete Unknown (pro tip: never leave a pile of axes at a folk festival). And Ben pleads with “the algorithm” to stop assuming he needs weapons disguised as mobility devices.

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This week, Scott sat down with Rational Security veterans and Lawfare colleagues Benjamin Wittes and Molly Reynolds to talk through the week’s big national security news, including:

• “House Odds.” Speaker of the House Mike Johnson scored an unlikely win last week, when he kept the narrow (and notoriously fractious) Republican house majority united enough to pass its own continuing resolution to keep the government open—and then successfully got enough Democrats to acquiesce to debate on it for it to pass through the Senate without amendment. What does this tell us about the current dynamics in Congress—and what the Democratic minority in either chamber might realistically hope to achieve moving forward?
• “This Pressure Goes to Eleven.” The Trump administration amped up military operations in the Middle East this week, taking out a senior ISIS leader in Iraq, pursuing an aggressive set of airstrikes against the Houthis in Yemen, and greenlighting a renewal of Israeli hostilities in Gaza, seemingly ending the weeks-long ceasefire that had prevailed there. The common thread across all three sets of action seems to be Iran, a regime that the Trump administration has both socked with a return of maximum pressure sanctions and sought to engage on possible negotiations over its nuclear program. Is this new maximum maximum-pressure campaign likely to work? What risks and benefits does it present?
• “Saying the Quiet Part Incredibly Loud and at Length.” President Trump gave an unprecedented speech at the Justice Department last week, where he spent over an hour misrepresenting the criminal cases that had been made against him prior to his rising to the presidency and naming specific individuals as enemies who he indicated should be arrested. What motivated his address? And what will it mean for the campaign of vengeance he is slowly rolling out against his perceived political enemies?

In object lessons, Molly momentarily set aside her usual evangelism for regional NPR-affiliate podcasts to champion Good Politics/Bad Politics, a Substack deep-dive into U.S. elections and governance by Jonathan Bernstein, Julia Azari, and David S. Bernstein. Scott, ever the escapist, steered clear of wands and wizardry but still embraced fantasy with Lev Grossman’s “The Bright Sword.” And Ben lamented the recent gutting of Voice of America—only to note that those voices haven’t vanished. They’re just looking for a new frequency.

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This week, Scott sat down with Lawfare Senior Editor and co-host emeritus Alan Rozenshtein and Lawfare Executive Editor Natalie Orpett to talk through the week’s big national security news, including:

• “Lowering the Bar.” Last week, the Trump administration took aim at two leading law firms—Covington & Burling and Perkins Coie—by repealing lawyers’ security clearances and setting limits on the extent to which government actors can contract with them, on the apparent grounds that they worked for Trump’s perceived enemies. Is this legal? Will it be challenged? And what will the effect be on the legal industry?
• “Big Math on Campus.” The Trump administration recently announced its intent to withhold $400 million in government grants from Columbia University, on the grounds that it had not done enough to combat anti-semitism on campus—a measure it paired with an indication that it would repeal student visas from those who had expressed “pro-Hamas” views. Is this tack a proper or legally sustainable one? And what impact will it have on academic communities in the United States?
• “Nothing Is Certain but Death and Ta…Well, at Least Death.” After temporarily delaying tariffs on Canada and Mexico after 48 hours last month, President Trump assured everyone that they were definitely getting installed this month. But once again, after a few days, he rescinded many of them. Nonetheless, the uncertainty surrounding this administration’s policies has markets spooked, triggering fears of a recession—something President Trump has indicated people may just have to live through. What are the real costs and benefits of Trump’s oscillating trade policies?

In object lessons, Alan went full nerd and prescribed himself a decade-long literary exile with “Gardens of the Moon,” the first in Steven Erikson’s ten-book epic. Scott’s old ass, meanwhile, threw its weight behind “My Old Ass,” a film about a young woman navigating family, love, and self-discovery—all with a little hallucinogenic assistance. And Natalie logrolled like a pro, plugging Quinta Jurecic’s guest spot on The Ezra Klein Show, where Quinta delivers one of Natalie’s all-time favorite “Quintaisms”—with all the necessary context baked right in.

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This week, Scott was joined by his Lawfare colleagues Molly Reynolds and Quinta Jurecic to work through the week’s big national security news stories, including:

• “Kyiv Calm and Tarry On.” This past Friday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited the White House for what turned into a disastrous meeting, in which President Donald Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance baited him into a heated public argument over Russia’s invasion of his country. In its aftermath, Trump refused to sign the minerals deal Zelensky was there to finalize and has now cut off U.S. assistance to Ukraine—though, at the time of recording, reports were emerging that the minerals deal was now back on track. And while European allies have stepped up their support for Ukraine, Trump’s Republican allies have united in support of him and increasingly called for Zelenskyy’s resignation. What contributed to this explosive about-face in U.S. policy towards Ukraine? And what does it tell us about the Trump administration’s decision-making?
• “Betting Against the House.” House Majority Leader Mike Johnson scored what many are framing as a big win last week when he—with help from President Trump and ally Elon Musk—was able to unite his fractious caucus’s narrow majority to pass their preferred budget. But there are concerns that aspects of the budget—and the broader agenda Trump is pressuring his party to unite behind—will likely undermine Republicans’ prospects of holding the House in 2026 midterm elections. What is the state of governance in Congress at the moment? And what does it mean for the Trump administration’s aggressive agenda.
• “Prime Directive.” Washington Post owner Jeff Bezos once again intervened in the newspaper’s opinions section last week, when he indicated that the paper no longer had a responsibility to reflect diverse views and would instead focus on issues of “personal liberties and free markets” that he thought were important for America—a mandate that led opinions editor David Shipley to resign. Is Bezos’s move an effort to dodge the ire of President Trump and his supporters? Or is something else in play? And what impact will it have on the paper’s future as an institution?

For object lessons, Quinta endorsed the New York Times Magazine’s lengthy art-imitates-life-imitates-art portrait of the Murdoch family and their odd relationship with the show Succession. Scott shared his discovery of a beautiful (and free!) online graphic novel of one of his favorite books, Lloyd Alexander’s “The Book of Three,” that’s made it much more accessible for his young son, and asked for listeners to recommend other good graphic novel translations of classic fantasy and sci-fi suitable for a younger audience. And Molly celebrated the best season of the year: Girl Scout cookie season!

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This week, Scott joined his Lawfare colleagues Benjamin Wittes, Natalie Orpett, and Anastasiia Lapatina for a rare, all-in-person discussion of the week’s big national security news, including:

• “Chicken Kyiv, Served Cold.” The Trump administration’s vision for a peace settlement in Ukraine is coming into focus—and it’s not the one many Ukrainians and Europeans were hoping for. In negotiations that have largely excluded Ukrainian and European partners—and amidst a barrage of hostile attacks on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s democratic legitimacy—the Trump administration appears to be insisting on some U.S. stake in Ukraine’s rare earth minerals while remaining unwilling to support Ukraine’s NATO membership and resistant to providing hard security guarantees in response. Are the contours of such a deal something Ukraine can agree to? And will it advance U.S. and Ukrainian national security interests?
• “Euro Vision.” In some of his first comments since emerging from elections as Germany’s new chancellor, Friedrich Merz called for European independence from the United States, in light of the Trump administration’s increasing neglect (and even hostility) to longstanding transatlantic partnerships. And Ukraine may be the first front for this new policy orientation, as European officials have suggested an increased willingness to deploy ground troops to Ukraine, increase their own assistance levels, and even make an alternate offer for access to Ukraine’s rare earth minerals. How much potential is there for a truly independent European foreign policy? And what will it mean for U.S. national interests?
• “Baywatch Reruns.” As part of its aggressive campaign against undocumented migrants, the Trump administration has expanded its use of the detention facility at Guantanamo Bay for what it claims to be the “worst of the worst” undocumented migrants involved in violent crimes. But recent reporting has cast serious doubt on whether everyone who has been detained at Guantanamo meets this qualification, while others have raised questions about the conditions in which detainees are being held and the legal basis for the involvement of military personnel. What is the Trump administration really trying to accomplish? And is Guantanamo Bay once again becoming a black mark on American rule of law?

In object lessons, Natalie confirmed the existence of the year’s most top-secret, exclusive diplomatic gathering—the Lawfare Baby Summit. Anastasiia unveiled Escalation, a long-anticipated narrative podcast series from Lawfare and Goat Rodeo about the history of the U.S.-Ukraine relationship. Scott—in true elder Millennial fashion—identified with the gracefully aging, definitely not old, Before Trilogy from Richard Linklater. And Ben marked the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine with a somber reflection on the sparse turnout at a Lincoln Memorial rally over the weekend, underscoring the ongoing challenge of building mass political movements from within small communities.

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This week, Scott sat down with his colleagues Tyler McBrien and Roger Parloff, as well as special guest Claire Meynial, U.S. correspondent for Le Point, to talk over the week's big national security news, including:

• “Make Europe Aghast Again.” Vice President J.D. Vance stunned the Munich Security Conference last week with remarks that criticized European allies for suppressing far-right and anti-immigration voices while playing down threats from China and Russia. Combined with the Trump administration’s past hostility to Transatlantic relationships, many are taking Vance’s as a sign of a downgrade in the U.S.-Europe relationship. But is this overstating things? And how far can the Trump administration adjust the relationship on its own, even if it wanted to?
• “I Would Do Anything for Bove, but I Won’t Do That.” (Credit to Robert Anderson, via Mike Stern.) The resignation of seven Justice Department attorneys over their refusal to move to dismiss charges against New York City Mayor Eric Adams at the direction of acting Deputy Attorney General Emil Bove has brought national attention to the Trump administration’s apparent intent to use its discretion over criminal prosecution as a policy tool to advance its immigration and potentially other agendas. But what do these recent events tell us about the potential for—and limits on—such a strategy? 
• “Animus Instinct.” The legal challenge to President Trump’s executive order banning transgender individuals from military service and halting gender-affirming care finally had a hearing in federal court this week. And in a barnburner, U.S. District Judge Ana Reyes raked the Justice Department over the coals, querying whether the ban was the result of “animus.” But how big a difference will her line of inquiry make in the end? Is there any realistic chance the courts will intervene?

For object lessons, Roger recommended a visit to the Holocaust Museum as an opportunity for a sober reflection. Tyler passed along Noah Schachtman's portrait of the players in the Eric Adams resignation scandal in Vanity Fair. Scott passed along his new favorite vegetarian pasta recipe, pasta al sugo finto. And Claire discussed some of her work on abortion rights in advance of International Women's Day on March 8, including research into the Comstock Act. 

We value your feedback! Help us improve by sharing your thoughts at lawfaremedia.org/survey. Your input ensures that we deliver what matters most to you. Thank you for your support—and, as always, for listening!

To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.

Use promo code RATIONALSECURITY at the link below to get an exclusive 60% off an annual Incogni plan:

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This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare teammates Tyler McBrien and Nastya Lapatina and Lawfare friend Joel Braunold, Managing Director of the S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace, to talk over the week's big national security news stories, including:

• “Mi Gaza Es Su Gaza.” President Donald Trump shocked the world last week when, in a joint press briefing with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, he announced plans for the United States to “own” Gaza, take responsibility for reconstructing it, and ultimately renovate it into a “Riviera” on the Eastern Mediterranean—one, he later made clear, that Palestinians would no longer be allowed to live in. What of this plan is serious and what is bluster? And what impact will it have on the broader Israeli-Palestinian conflict, including the delicate ceasefire that Trump’s emissary worked so hard to secure just weeks ago in Gaza?
• “Bullets for Bauxite.” President Trump recently reiterated his desire for a quick end to the conflict in Ukraine, a topic on which senior Trump administration and Ukrainian officials will be talking soon. But peace will come at a price—in this case, a deal guaranteeing U.S. access to Ukraine’s rare earth minerals, among other concessions. Is Trump’s timeline realistic? And how is his administration’s “America First” tack likely to impact the trajectory of the conflict?
• “Quid Pro Whoa.” Acting Deputy Attorney General Emil Bove took the exceptional step this week of directing the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York to dismiss corruption charges—arising from alleged improper contributions and relationships with foreign government officials, including from Turkey—against New York Mayor Eric Adams so that Adams could focus his energy combating high crime and unlawful immigration. What should we make of such a clear quid pro quo? And what might it mean for the Justice Department moving forward?

For object lessons, Tyler and Nastya plugged Lawfare's next big long-form audio documentary series, which they co-host and is set to debut later this month: Escalation, a podcast about the war in Ukraine. Scott recommended an incredibly touching piece in the New York Times about faith, parenthood, and reconciling the two, entitled "How My Dad Reconciled His God with His Gay Son," by Timothy White. And in honor of the man's Super Bowl victory, Joel shared one of his favorite quotes from Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts, which has particular resonance with the peacebuilding community he works in: "I had a purpose before anybody had an opinion."

We value your feedback! Help us improve by sharing your thoughts at lawfaremedia.org/survey. Your input ensures that we deliver what matters most to you. Thank you for your support—and, as always, for listening!

Use promo code RATIONALSECURITY at the link below to get an exclusive 60% off an annual Incogni plan:

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