RBC's Markets in Motion

The big things you need to know: Three big things you need to know: First, Tech has bounced back on performance and earnings revisions but valuations remain a problem. Second, valuations more broadly have started to look less appealing. Third, other updates in our high frequency indicators highlight how pendulums have swung on a few different fronts (namely investor sentiment, election stats, and funds flows).

The big things you need to know: First, reporting season has ended up looking just fine on the stats, with one twist at the end. Second, we update our rundown of key themes on earnings calls. Third, net bulls on the AAII survey bounced back last week as 10-year yields decoupled from their 2023 spike, hopes for Fed cuts returned, and flows to US equity funds improved.

The big things you need to know: Three big things you need to know: First, after a weak start to 1Q24 reporting season, it has settled into a groove on the stats. Second, we review our thoughts on key themes on company earnings calls so far. Third, we highlight what’s jumping out on our high frequency indicators. This includes our main sentiment indicator (which we still think hasn’t fallen enough) and our rundown of the key headwinds and tailwinds for Small Caps (which both weakened last week).

The big things you need to know: First, we’ve just completed our quarterly survey of RBC’s equity analysts around the globe and found that optimism on performance persists for most sectors and coverage regions, despite the challenges associated with higher interest rates. Second, with a fresh set of survey results in hand we are making three changes to our sector recommendations. Within the US (and S&P 500 specifically) we are upgrading Materials to overweight, downgrading Health Care to market weight, and downgrading REITs to underweight.

The big things you need to know: First, investor sentiment has taken a bit of a hit, but it’s too early to say the pullback is over. Second, while we continue to expect the pullback to bottom out in the 5-10% range vs. recent highs, we’ve taken a look at S&P 500 performance around recent wars to gauge potential downside risks if we are wrong in that assumption. Third, it’s been a rough start to 1Q reporting season as companies beating consensus EPS forecasts have been underperforming significantly in terms of immediate price performance. Fourth, we’ve been surprised to see Large Cap Growth underperforming given the recent move up in 10-year yields, and run through the reasons (besides crowding and overvaluation) that we think this is happening.

The big things you need to know: First, geopolitical concerns are spiking at a time when stocks already seemed due for a pullback. Second, the rotation trade has just gotten a lot more complicated. Third, companies have been keeping expectations low on earnings. Fourth, our valuation modeling suggests some modest downside risk to the stock market if we don’t get cuts, and a more significant hit if we get more hikes. Fifth, Small Caps may be stuck in a holding pattern for a while. Sixth, Biden has closed the gap with Trump in betting markets. Seventh, US equity flows have fizzled.

Two big things you need to know: First, the Energy sector still looks attractive to us, even after its big move in March, and we remain overweight. Second, Trump has lost some momentum in swing state polling, challenging a key assumption of many non-US investors.

Three big things you need to know today: First, we lift our YE 2024 S&P 500 price target to 5,300 (from 5,150). The most constructive model in our tool kit indicates upside to ~5,400, which represents our bull case if our base case is too conservative. Second, we continue to see some conflicting cross currents for stocks. Among the five models that we use, our economic, valuation, and cross-asset work are sending the most constructive signals, while our sentiment and politics work are less enthusiastic. Third, we lift our 2024 S&P 500 EPS forecast to $237 (from $234), which remains slightly below the bottom-up consensus.

Two big things you need to know today: First, our work on the R2000 relative to the S&P 600 (sparked by Small Cap PM concerns about low quality) adds to our belief that the US came close to recession in 2022. Second, CFTC buyside positioning in US equity futures rebounded last week ahead of the Fed, highlighting increased risk of a melt-up in the broader US equity market.

Three big things you need to know: First, Energy has been a top S&P 500 sector since January. We like its attractive valuations, improving funds flows, and role as an inflation hedge in our overweights. Second, Large Caps are starting to look a little better than Small Caps on a few of the earnings-related metrics that we track, suggesting to us that Small Caps’ sluggish performance of late isn’t all about Fed and inflation fears. Third, sentiment continued to slip on one of our main sentiment models from elevated levels.