Redefining Energy

First Episode on the Redefining Energy MINUTES on the main channel.

On the menu this week, an update of nuclear and offshore wind, two important (but minor) sources of carbon-free energy.

And some news on the scandal at Cummins, and their pollution cheating device, costing them 1.6bnUSD.

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/cummins-take-about-204-bln-charge-fourth-quarter-2023-12-22/

Happy new year to all our listeners.

It has become a tradition for the first episode of the year: Gerard and Laurent present their 2024 Predictions in the Energy Transition. And we brought in our friend (and co-host of our sister show RE TECH) to spice up the conversation: Michael Barnard. Michael also acts as referee to score the predictions that were made a year ago.

1. Record installation of everything Energy Transition: Solar, Batteries, Heat Pumps, EV (Gerard)
2. Massive consolidation in the EV sector – Toyota will buy Panasonic (Laurent)
3. Volatility in the Energy market is here to stay (Gerard)
4. New alternatives to Li-Ion in Stationary Storage (Laurent)
5. The Energy Transition has no plan, it just goes (Gerard)
6. Nuclear: Westinghouse takes over Europe (Laurent)

Well, the result was that Gerard won (but Laurent is considering filing a reclamation)

Now, to 2024. Our 6 predictions are:

1. Stellantis will outsource its EV production in China
2. Politics: Elections in 2024 could derail the Energy Transition
3. Oversupply of everything energy related – Prices are going down
4. Stronger top-down governance of Transmission and Interconnection
5. The return of Clean Energy shares
6. China will gain massive international market in Wind and EVs

We thank our partner AXPO for supporting the show.

Final Episode of 2023 (and last one for the MINUTES on their own channel). All episodes will be on this channel going forward.

Here are the Redefining Energy Awards for 2023:

• Company of the Year - BYD
• Start Up of the Year - PV Case
• Deal of the Year – Tesla and NACS
• Trade of the Year – Short Gas TTF
• Scandal of the Year – Venture Global and the 200 LNG cargoes heist
• Person of the Year – Jigar Shah
• Stupidest Quote of the Year - Kim Kardashian
• LINK TO THAT COMMERCIAL https://youtu.be/9EASYmElZuU?si=ygpWeT5FeUsQ0e26
• Book of the Year: How Big things get done – Bent Flyvbjerg & Dan Gardner

Happy New Year to all our Listeners.
Thank you for your unwavering confidence!
And we will see you again on the 2nd of January 2024 for our famous Predictions 2024!

Last episode of the Year. And what a year. We passed 1m downloads since inception. In 2023, we will have 470k downloads up 34% compared to 2022.

Gerard and Laurent saw the Weaponisation of Energy coming: two years ago in Oct 2021, we did Episode 60 called “the Natgaspocalypse”. That was 5 months before the invasion of Ukraine.

Two years into weaponizing energy, it is time to look back and assess. What were the immediate impacts of that crisis. How to evaluate the short-term responses (market, supply chain, government, behaviour, fuel choice). Did the Energy system show resilience, or have we just been lucky?

To make sense of all of this, we brought Andy Sommer on the show. Andy is head of Fundamental Analysis, Modelling & Meteorology at Axpo, a major Renewable Energy Producer and Trader. Andy is responsible for Axpo’s short and mid-term analysis of all global energy markets, from oil to gas and coal, all the way to European power and emission markets.

With Andy, we debate how did that shock impact the eternal debate Climate vs Security of Supply vs Affordability. And beyond the short-term consequences, what are the long-term impacts and the change of mindset that will give more emphasis on Energy Security.

Gerard (the Dove) and Laurent (the Hawk) come with different conclusions, but nevertheless agree on the path forward where Energy Security aligns with the Energy Transition.
We thank Aquila Capital for supporting our show. They have been great partners since inception.
Announcement:
Big changes coming in 2024. We go weekly.
In fact, we are merging the main show, this show, with our second show called Minutes. We created the sister-show Minutes two years ago as a separate experiment, and we have been pleased by its progression, so it is time to go mainstream.
So, in 2024, we will have our main show, not the first and 15 of each month, but the first and third Monday of each month. And then we will have a new revamped minutes (less than 10mns) where we will freewheeling discuss about a topic making the news or important to us. That will be on the second and fourth Monday of each month (and fifth if there is a fifth Monday, which apparently is quite rare). See how it goes. Your comments are welcome.

Which means, friends of Minutes, that the Minutes channel will cease to exist. Stay on the Main show for your Minutes.

This Sunday, a Special Episode. We are going live to COP28 in Dubai.

Our special guest is Bruce Douglas, CEO Global Renewable Alliance, who is spearheading the effort around the key message “Double down, Triple Up” or how we will decarbonise by tripling renewables by the end of the decade.

Bruce tells us how it is on the ground, how he is having the busiest week of his life, and how the positive message is now being relayed by hundreds of Heads of State and key business decision makers.

"COP28 text finally agreed - this is HUGE! Massive gratitude to everyone who made this possible 🙏 - proudest moment of my career so far... 😍
“The inclusion of tripling renewables in the final COP28 text is unprecedented and signals the start of a massive clean energy revolution. It is the first time all nations have recognised renewable energy as the main solution to the climate crisis, representing a paradigm shift in the energy transition."

In the past 5 years, we have seen an incredible rise of Energy Storage (ESS) on numerous Grids. Those markets, whether in Europe (10GW) or in the USA (16GW), have been created by the magic formula where entrepreneurship blended with new technology.

For Laurent and Gerard, there is not better guest to discuss the phenomenal growth of the ESS than Dr Alex O’Cinneide. Alex is the Founder and CEO of Gore Street Capital, a London based fund which now manages a portfolio of 1.2GW of batteries in GB, Ireland, Germany, Texas and California. Seven years ago, he was working out of a telephone booth with his laptop on his knees.
Alex explains the value of a geographical portfolio approach, how tech is evolving, how supply chains are reacting, what is similar and what is different in all those markets. An energy transition story which is also a personal journey of a very talented entrepreneur whose success has been recognised by the Industry as Alex has been recently received the prestigious “Man of the Year” award by Solar Media.

Alex describes the investment in batteries (compared to wind or solar) as the most challenging, but also the most important and rewarding.

And as we say on the show, it is all about harnessing “space and time” or in a more market angle “Long Flex – Short Vol”

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This podcast is powered by Axpo an international leader in providing sustainable energy solutions for the future.

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This podcast is done in partnership with the Energy Storage Summit 2024

The Energy Storage Summit (20-21 February, London) is the biggest, busiest, and most innovative networking event for energy storage, uniting stakeholders to exchange knowledge, learn and establish crucial industry connections. Taking place at the Novotel London West in Hammersmith, the Summit has become Europe’s annual must-attend energy storage event for the entire value chain.

You don’t want to miss this one – book your ticket using code RE15 for a 15% discount. Following two sold out editions, we expect the same again in 2024.
Don't miss your chance to hear directly from innovators spearheading change and make your mark on the rapidly evolving energy storage industry. https://storagesummit.solarenergyevents.com/tickets/

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More on Alex and Gore Street Capital

Alex O’Cinneide is CEO and Chair of the Investment Committee of Gore Street Capital, which he founded in 2015 as a global platform to facilitate the deployment of renewable energy solutions. His career has included senior roles at KPMG, Quorum European Partners, Kleinwort Benson, Paladin Capital Group and utility-scale renewables developer Masdar Capital, where he served as Head of Investments and General Manager for six years. Alex also holds academic qualifications from Trinity College Dublin, the London Business School and the London School of Economics and Political Science, culminating in a PhD that analysed the effectiveness of renewable energy policy in the Republic of Ireland and the UK.
Gore Street Capital was formed in 2015 as a global platform to acquire and manage renewable energy solutions, supporting robust businesses and high-performing assets that contribute towards the transition to a low-carbon economy. In 2018, Gore Street Capital created the UK energy storage investment class by listing Gore Street Energy Storage Fund (LSE: GSF) on the premium segment of the London Stock Exchange, and has since played a material role in the growth of GSF from £30m at IPO to a market cap of over £451m as of 30 June 2023. The company comprises a team of almost 45 energy professionals in GB, Ireland and the US working across finance, construction, engineering, legal and more as it continually brings roles in-house to support the fund.

A note from GSF Compliance Department:

• GSF is among the largest energy storage owners, including utilities, when judged on geographic spread – GB, Ireland, Germany, Texas and California.
• Around 3% of GSF’s Irish revenue is accrued by trading 5 MW from a 50 MW project.
• Gore Street Capital has 45 employees, plus contractors.
• GSF does not yet have operational assets in Scotland and future performance is yet to be determined.

Why should the 97% of non-French listeners of the podcast be interested in the fate of the French nuclear fleet?
With 60GW and 56 reactors, the French nuclear fleet is critical to the very existence of a European Power market as it represents 10%-15% of the electricity consumed on the continent and much larger share if you only account for zero carbon sources.
And its “health” is a key component of Europe’s Security of Supply and Energy price levels. Furthermore, beyond Europe, a well-functioning French nuclear fleet reduces the need for LNG imports.
20 years ago, EDF was the most powerful utility in the world, producing 420TWh of carbon free power and about to be privatised to reach a 200bnEUR valuation. 20 years later, plagued by debt, major outages, financial losses, and poorly timed government interventions, EDF had to re-nationalised.
Rather than relitigate the past or engage into sterile discussions about whether nuclear is THE solution, A solution or NOT A solution, we have to live with simple facts: a) for the past 30 years, French nuke has been the backbone of the whole European Energy system b) it almost imploded in 2022 (half of the fleet down at some point) as the worst possible moment: when Russia invaded Ukraine.
Going forward, can Europe still rely on the French nuke fleet for Security of Supply? Can nuclear continue to provide cheap power or will it become uncompetitive? How does nuclear cope with an increasingly volatile power markets where the key word is now “Flexibility”?
We bring in a Breton sailor, Emeric de Vigan. Emeric is a former trader at EDF Energy where he oversaw the short-term power trading of the entire nuclear fleet. He is now head of Kpler Energy, a leading subscription-based data and analytics platform delivering real-time market intelligence for diverse commodities and their transportation.
In summary, Emeric really knows what he is talking about.
With Gerard and Laurent, Emeric delivers a dispassionate, clinical, and sometimes technical conversation about the future of the French nuclear fleet.

PS: after the recording of this episode, EDF and the French government found an agreement on the price of power for the current nuclear fleet: 70EUR/MWh (vs 42EUR/MWh under ARENH) More here: https://www.ft.com/content/e2fc3abf-4803-4561-8ef2-0c77fd2d07a8

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If you want to know more about the current political and economic conundrum about French nuclear, please read this excellent presentation by Yves Marignac, Institut Negawatt https://seafile.institut-negawatt.com/f/a565a5e04bcc4615b301/


This podcast is powered by Axpo an international leader in providing sustainable energy solutions for the future.

We hear a lot about Climate Tech, and the VC investments about to revolutionize and accelerate the Energy Transition. Gerard and Laurent wanted to know more. And there is no better place than Silicon Valley to hear it directly from the source.

What are the trends? Where to invest? What strategy?

There is no better guest than Dr. Carolin Funk, Partner at Blue Bear Capital, to provide an exceptional vision of the current Climate Tech environment.

Blue Bear is a Silicon Valley- based venture capital and early growth equity firm driving the expansion of digital technologies into multibillion-dollar verticals across the energy, infrastructure, and climate industries. Blue Bear's portfolio covers operational AI, IoT, and cybersecurity technologies, all deployed with enterprise customers to drive connectivity and efficiency across the world's most critical industries.

We deep dive into Blue Bear’s investments thesis, how they analyse hundreds of opportunities per year to select only 4-6 investments. What quality are they looking for in terms of TAM, teams and what exits are possible. Blue Bear is not your regular VC fund which strategy is sometimes described as “spraying and praying”. Their investments are highly concentrated and the added value to management is second to none. Blue Bear is royalty when it comes to Climate Tech. Having Blue Bear at your cap table gives you an additional aura when you’re an entrepreneur.
We thank our most faithfull partner Aquila Capital, one of the most successful infrastructure fund in Europe

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Finally, we have put an intro music (The Persuaders - 1971)
Tell us if you like it or not. We love all our listeners.

Honestly, we have struggled to find a suitable title for this Episode. We thought of and then abandoned catchier titles such as “Withering Wind”, “Have we reached peak wind?” and even “Wind – WTF”. Finally, we settled for a more optimistic headline.

Still, after a great decade, the Wind industry is facing serious head winds. After 2020 and 2021: record years – almost 100GW (incl 10% - 20% offshore), 2022 saw the market shrink down to 77GW. Dominated by China, US, EU, Brazil. Wind is now four times smaller than solar.

Struggling OEMs, social licenses, slow grid connections, supply chain inflation, botched auctions, write downs, rising interest rates, local content requirements… the list goes on and on.

Wind trends seem to have massively decoupled from the thriving duo Solar + Battery. How deep is the Wind Energy crisis? 1TW has been reached and there are massive plans that don’t seem to correspond to the current health of the supply chain. Have we reached peak wind?

We bring on our friend Rosie Barnes, one of the top wind observers in the world, and we try to categorize each issue, analising which are cyclical and which are structural. Can we endlessly grow the size of the Turbines? Not only from a technical point of view, but also from a logistical aspect and a financial perspective. Is there a real Chinese challenge?

We tackle all those points in a heated conversation where opinions are hard to reconcile. We agree only on a few things: the race towards bigger sizes must stop. OEMs must regroup and accept to pause any innovation, deliver longer series, and reconstitute their profitability. The wind industry needs to have a hard look at itself so as to re-emerge stronger in the coming years, as it will transform itself from a growth industry to a value industry

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An episode done in partnership with Wind Europe.
WindEurope is an association promoting the use of wind power in Europe. Based in Brussels it has over 600 members, which are active in over 50 countries.

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This podcast is powered by Axpo an international leader in providing sustainable energy solutions for the future. In the Nordics, Axpo has been a pioneer within Trading and Origination services for the last 20 years.

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Links to Rosie on Social Media
- Engineering with Rosie: https://www.youtube.com/@EngineeringwithRosie
- Uptime podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-uptime-wind-energy-podcast/id1504249857

The smaller the grid, the higher the price. Islands have been plagued forever by a higher price of power. This is an inherent consequence of their small scale. Add on the top some natural catastrophes, and you end up with a poor and costly service for consumers.
The good news is that there is a new generation of Utility managers which has started to tackle the problem. Of course, results are unperfect, as for one Hawaii there is one Puerto Rico. It is not just about money; it is about changing the culture and the rapid adoption of new technologies.
To illustrate what can be done at reasonable budgets, we have invited Steve Berberich, CEO of Jamaica Public Service Company Limited (JPS). After running the California ISO for a decade, he has opted for a new challenge rather than enjoy a well-deserved retirement. Jamaica’s energy system is highly dependent on high cost imported fossil fuels; petroleum imports account for over 80 percent of electricity production. Furthermore, electricity theft is a massive problem. Finally, Jamaica is always at the mercy of a devastating hurricanes.
Jamaica Public Service Company Limited (JPS) is a privately held integrated electric utility company and the sole distributor of electricity in Jamaica. The Company is engaged in the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity, and also purchases power from a number of Independent Power Producers (IPPs). The change of attitude is to present this stable island of 3m as a perfect testing ground for all possible technological innovations. JPS invites all innovations to be rolled out in Jamaica, which then can leapfrog some legacy part of the industry.
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This Episode partners with Bruce Douglas’ Global Renewables Alliance Let’s triple renewables in the next ten years.
https://globalrenewablesalliance.org/
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The Episode is sponsored by PV CASE. PV CASE is the ultimate design software for solar PV developers from the earliest stages of planning all the way to the procurement phase. https://pvcase.com/RedefiningEnergy
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Finally, Laurent and Gerard would like to thank all our listeners as we have reached 1,000,000 downloads across all our shows. The main show will likely pass that bar in November. We will celebrate big time.