Redefining Energy

The Energy Storage Market, namely large-scale batteries, is the fastest growing segment of the Energy transition. Texas, UK, California, and Australia are witnessing phenomenal deployment rates. We are talking about annual growth of 30%-40%.
As more and more infrastructure investors are either considering investing in Batteries, or have already started, we wanted to make a deep dive on how to monetise that new asset class. Because revenues from batteries quite differ from wind and solar. It’s all about flexibility and optionality with a strong layer of digital.
To get a better understanding of this new landscape, we have brought our friend Quentin Draper-Scrimshire to the show. Quentin is a very talented young entrepreneur, fellow podcaster, and the CEO of Modo Energy, the leading data analytics firm focussed on the commercialisation of battery energy storage. Modo Energy's customers include funds, asset owners, utilities, traders, and optimisers in Great Britain. Who will win in the race for maximum returns? Data scientists turned traders or traders turned data scientists.
A wonderful look into the future, which is happening now, pedal to the metal!
https://modo.energy/

And we thank Aquila Capital for their continuous support.

Can we really go to Net Zero and keep energy secure and affordable with current policies, or do we need to make hard choices that politicians might not be willing to sustain over the long term? Are the new technologies going to save us or will have to rely on dirigiste policies to dampen the energy prices spikes and secure affordable power.
What will it take to go net Zero? Are we too dependent on weather and unreliable energy sources? Two visions are clashing: it is Elon Musk’s Master Plan 3 vs Bill Gates/Vaclav Smil “We don’t have the tech” or it is just a question of generation: 51 years old vs 67 and 79 years old?
We present a very tough but necessary debate with Doug Houseman, Principal Consultant at 1898 Burns McDonnell (a US Engineering giant), and a keen observer of the Energy Transition. Doug has a plan, and he also comments on the alternative which would be Greta’s plan (That’s where we start to differ). But as Mike Tyson used to say, “Everybody has a plan until he gets punched in the face”.

Are our choices that binary? Doug advocates a nuclear renaissance, massive seawater pumped hydro systems and new transmissions. No mention of decentralized power, exponential deployment of batteries and solar, nor digital.

In a simple summary: are we complexifying a simple model or are we simplifying a complex model? Blue Pill or Red Pill?

3 million heat pumps were installed in Europe in 2022 (up 38% year on year) with some markets going crazy (Poland went up 120%). The movement is not limited to Europe, as US annual sales rose above 4 million units for the first time in 2022 (more than gas boilers).
As the deployment of heat pumps has reached an inflection point in 2022, we wanted to dig deep into the decarbonisation of heating. We wanted to talk about new technologies, economics and government interventions which are sometimes good (ban of new oil and gas boilers, subsidies) sometimes bad (electrons are more taxed than molecules).
This silent revolution needed a voice, and that’s our friend Jan Rosenow. Jan is the European Director of the Regulatory Assistance Project, a global energy think tank working on clean energy. He is also an Honorary Fellow at Oxford University. Jan Rosenow is a global heat pump expert and has tracked heat pump markets around the world. He works with policy makers all over Europe to craft and implement more effective policies to drive the transition.
And of course, we talk about Hydrogen (spoiler alert, not in great terms)
References https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H3jIRRzF6d0
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-022-01104-8
https://www.raponline.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/RAP_Heat_Pump_Toolkit.pdf


CarbonBrief:
https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-how-the-energy-crisis-is-boosting-heat-pumps-in-europe/

debunking myths
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/debunking-heat-pump-myths-dr-jan-rosenow?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios&utm_campaign=share_via

We thank our friends and partners Aquila Capital, for supporting the show

The supply chains in renewables are a total mess. Security of Supply, Price fluctuations, Technological changes, ESG… Acquiring equipment on time and on budget is becoming a harder challenge by the day. How to fix the supply chain for renewables?

We needed to bring a real professional on the show, and that’s Özer Ergül. Özer is Group Head of Procurement with Aquila Capital. Prior to joining Aquila Capital, he was Group CPO for Lightsource BP, and started his career at Toyota and then HitachiABB. Özer is also Chair of Supply Chain Sustainably workstream with Solar Power Europe. Last year, Özer supervised a CAPEX of 4bnEUR for a 3.3GW deployment of new renewable capacity in Europe and AsiaPac.

Özer delivers the four golden rules to fix the supply chains problems. More perspiration than inspiration. Very technical but eye opening.

We thank our partner for the episode, Conquest Group, a Paris/Dublin-based alternative asset management firm investing in and operating long-life, high-quality assets in tomorrow’s critical infrastructure for the energy transition on behalf of his clients

We discovered Simon Moores, CEO of Benchmark Minerals Intelligence, on YouTube, during a legendary testimony during the US Senate in 2019. Simon just blew our mind, so it had been an ambition for this show to bring him on. And we did.
With Simon, we analyse the whole supply chain of batteries, from mining (lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite) to refining, down to the Gigafactories.
The battery industry has managed to scale x10 in the past six years and is expected to x8-x10 (depending on who you listen to) in the current decade. That would allow the electrification of the whole transportation sector!
Is there enough raw materials in the ground, are we going to go from one dependency to another? Can lithium be replaced? How is the state of the Nickel market after the 2022 meltdown? Can we create supply chains outside China? What is the impact of the IRA in the US? Will automakers get more involved in mining (we just witnessed the spectacular investment of GM in Thacker Pass)? Is there a new battery technology that would dent the domination of the Li-Ion batteries?
All those questions are so much more in a very lively discussion with Simon.
(We refer to Joe Lowry, that we respect and salute)


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Benchmark Mineral Intelligence is an independent price reporting agency (PRA), data and supply chain intelligence provider for the lithium-ion battery and electric vehicle industry. We offer subscriptions and strategic advisory services to those in or looking to enter the active lithium-ion battery ecosystem.

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References:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wv0PHIo1zzo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OW45rCuhIg8&t=17s
https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/
https://events.benchmarkminerals.com/event/da3e1b1f-7c83-4a16-a34d-6b020d09070a/summary
And also, very useful report on the State of Play in the Battery Industry https://www.volta.foundation/annual-battery-report

And don’t forget our “Book of the Year 2022” “Volt Rush” on that topic.---------------
We thank Aquila Capital for supporting the show

Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) are private contracts between a producer of renewable energy and consumers. The PPA was developing consistently, mainly driven by Utilities. Then 2022 arrived and we witnessed an unprecedented volatility in PPA markets in Europe.
What were the consequences of that turmoil on the PPA markets in terms of prices, tenures, counterparties? Did PPA provide good hedges to sellers and buyers?
We have brought in Luca Pedretti, the COO & Co-Founder of Pexapark to dive into the intricacies of the PPA market. Pexapark is the leading analytic platform of PPAs.
How has the market evolved in recent months and where is it heading? What new thinking and innovative approaches in terms of risk management are bringing solutions and give rise to new opportunities? We also talk about the detrimental haphazard proposals of market reforms by regulators, their lack of trust in the private sector, and their itching attempts to over-regulate with top down one-size-fits-all decisions, soviet style.
But hope is around the corner, and the PPA market will evolve and thrive, but it will be a different market, more on a portfolio basis than on an asset basis, with different tenures and risk management systems.
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Pexapark is a 5-year young, rapidly growing company of 100 enthusiasts providing renewable energy management software and PPA transaction services to investors so that they can independently price, analyse, manage, and transact their production on power markets. Pexapark enabled so far +20 GW of PPAs and its software is run for 1’000s of assets.

Also, if you like more audio content on commodities and energy, check the HC Insider Podcast https://www.linkedin.com/company/hcgroup-global/

Finally, we thank our partner Aquila Capital, who make this show possible!

Everybody wants to buy 24/7 green electrons, but until recently, it has proven quite difficult. Most buyers of Green Energy are currently purchasing their electrons on a yearly basis, and furthermore with little regard for the location.
At the same time, last century thinking has gripped regulators with frantic proposals of price caps and tentative market reforms around nodal pricing. This flurry of activity has only added confusion in the mind of renewables developers, and hence has been stifling investment.
The real solution to a correct pricing of green electrons comes from several forward-thinking energy consumers such as Google and Microsoft who have now decided to target an hourly match of Green Electricity. In order to solve the issue of monitoring space and time, blockchain has come to the rescue under the form of an EnergyTag.
We have brought Simone Accornero, CEO FlexiDAO, a European Start Up in charge of tracking and monitoring those Green Electrons by the hour. FlexiDAO works closely with critical stakeholders to co-create the international standard around energy-related emission compliance.
Thanks to their end-to-end 24/7 Carbon-free Energy platform, companies can quantify and confidently showcase their contribution to society's decarbonization.
Tracking those Green Certificates will allow to price them properly, so renewable developers will know where and when it is valuable to add green electrons on the grid, boosting the incentives to invest in storage (time) and transmission (space).
The Energy timestamps are a genuine innovation in the development of the Energy Transition.

Please check EnergyTag, with our friend Toby Ferenczi. (https://energytag.org/)

Also, as promised, the link to the 8th Energy Storage Summit – London 22 - 23 February 2023 https://storagesummit.solarenergyevents.com/

And we thank Aquila Capital for their support!

MESSAGE FROM FLEXIDAO
“During this interview, Simone Accornero made the statement that international certificates from LATAM were being used on another continent and for the creation of renewable-generated steel. This statement is incorrect and was used to represent a possible future situation if market boundaries are not well defined, not a statement of fact.”

Happy new year 2023 to all our listeners. In this Episode, it is Nostradamus vs. Cassandra all over again: Laurent and Gerard review their 2022 predictions (Episode 65) and look forward to the future.

How accurate were our two co-hosts’ predictions for 2022?
1) The Energy Transition is not going to be a smooth ride
2) The Hydro and water crisis
3) The decade of geothermal
4) High Energy Prices
5) Elon Musk out of Tesla
6) Power Market Structure Reform.

Overall, it seems to be another draw. You’ll be the judge.

And here are our new Predictions for 2023
1) Record installation of everything Energy Transition: Solar, Batteries, Heat Pumps, EV
2) Massive consolidation in the EV sector – Toyota will buy Panasonic
3) Volatility in the Energy market is here to stay
4) New alternatives to Li-Ion in Stationary Storage
5) The Energy Transition has no plan, it just goes
6) Nuclear: Westinghouse takes over Europe

We thank our partner Aquila Capital for their continuous support and wish all our listeners a Happy New Year 2023.

Another year of explosive growth for the Solar Industry: production above 300GW, +45% yoy. What’s behind this staggering growth? How are the supply chain evolving? What are the “Fab four” and what new technology are they pursuing? Why are the prices not going down? How can the development of ESG in supply chain be assessed? How will the industry look in 5 years?

So many questions for this booming industry and it is just starting: Solar PV capacity is expected to almost treble over the 2022-2027 period, growing by 1.5TW and surpassing coal as the largest source of power capacity worldwide, according to a report from the International Energy Agency (IEA). In its “Renewables 2022” report, the IEA expects renewables to grow by 2.4TW over the next five-year period, with an acceleration of installations in the residential and commercial rooftop market globally to help reduce energy bills.

We needed answers; that’s why we brought Finlay Colville on the show. Finlay is Head of Research PV-Tech and Solar Media and the most widely admired expert around the world for his insights. (Especially now that we are wondering about the fate of our Queen of Solar, Jenny Chase, who gave up the Head of Solar at BNEF. Jenny told me she is still active. We send her our love and respect).

Finlay strongly believes that the Solar industry will reach a 1TW capacity in this very decade, which is a total gamechanger than the incumbents are totally oblivious to.

Gerard and Laurent agree 100%. “The incumbent energy industry has literally no idea what’s coming for them”

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Find more of Finlay Colville analysis here
https://www.pv-tech.org/
https://www.solarmedia.co.uk/

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A warm salute to our friends of Solar Power Europe.
https://www.solarpowereurope.org/

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We thank the Green Recruitment Company for supporting the show. The Green Recruitment Company is the leading renewable energy and sustainability staffing company in the world.
With recruiters in Europe, America, China, Australia & Africa, The Green Recruitment Company offers bespoke staffing solutions across solar, wind, green hydrogen, carbon capture, storage, investment & finance, and much more.
https://www.greenrecruitmentcompany.com/

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Don't forget our excellent weekly sister show: Redefining Energy MINUTES
Applepodcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/redefining-energy-minutes/id1605111087
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0mx29RlfrabGS6QErA8UD8


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Merry Christmas to all our listeners. See you on the 2nd January 2023 for our traditional previsions. (Gerard thinks he has won)

The biogas/biomethane industry is now one of the promising segments of the Energy Transition: security of supply, renewables sources, local jobs, round the clock dispatchability; the industry ticks all boxes.

Biogas can basically be made from any organic material, so the three big sectors are: 1) agricultural wastes (manures and slurries, crop residues) 2) food waste (from the processed food industry or food manufacturing, but also from supermarkets and households) 3) waste water. Biogas only contains 50%-60% methane; it can be upgraded to produce “biomethane” by removing the CO2 and other impurities.

Recent massive deals have made the headlines (BP acquisition of Archaea, Shell of Nature Energy, Macquarie of BayWa biogas, Nextera of Energy Power Partners) and more big players are committing capital to this industry: (TotalEnergies, Marubeni). Overall, the industry could x10 this decade.

To discuss the future of biogas/biomethane, we bring on Chris Huhne, UK Energy and Climate Change Secretary from 2010 to 2012, one of the founding fathers of CFDs in the Renewable Energy Industry and currently Chair of ADBA (Anaerobic Digestion and Bioresources Association).

We review the challenge of technological standardisation, government incentives, and feedstock supply chains.

Will biogas solve the energy transition on its own? Certainly not. Will it be an important part of the solution? Definitely.

We thank our long-time partners Aquila Capital