Redefining Energy

Geopolitics and Climate disasters have shown how fragile Energy flows and infrastructures have become. Moving electrons or molecules is becoming an ever-greater challenge in the drive to decarbonisation, affordability, and security of supply.

Politics are always in the background, and the recent US Midterms elections have signaled the end of a full Democrat Congress which has been very active in financing infrastructures and the energy transition.

To discuss Energy infrastructure in the context of divisive national politics and tense geopolitics, we have invited one of the savviest US Energy regulators of recent years: Neil Chatterjee. Neil is an American lawyer, political advisor, and government official who was Chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) from 2017 until he was removed from the position by President Donald Trump in November 2020 for his “pro-climate” positions.

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission is the United States federal agency that regulates the transmission and wholesale sale of electricity and natural gas in interstate commerce and regulates the transportation of oil by pipeline in interstate commerce. FERC also reviews proposals to build interstate natural gas pipelines, natural gas storage projects, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals, in addition to licensing non-federal hydropower projects.

At FERC, Neil approved several key infrastructures such as Liquified Natural Gas Export terminals, and passed the landmark Order 2222, unlocking the development of Distributed Energy Resources (mini grids, VPP, batteries).

With Neil, we discuss the US investments prospects in the wake of the US Midterms, the Inflation Reduction Act, the conundrum of Permitting and more generally how Energy flows are constantly being restructured.

We thank our new sponsor, The Green Recruitment Company, the leading renewable energy and sustainability staffing company in the world.

The war in Ukraine has triggered a dislocation of Energy markets, especially in Europe. This has led to a point a few months ago when governments had to bail out all Utilities which were caught on the wrong side of Energy Trades. Trillions of derivatives threatened to trigger a “Lehman moment”.

How did we get there? Are the Energy markets the culprits or just the symptoms? Are they beyond repairs or can they be reformed? Do they even need to be reformed? As Regulators are coming up with new ideas every week, we bring on the show the legendary Energy Trader Pierre Andurand.

From Goldman Sachs whizz kid to now managing one of the best performing Energy funds on the planet, Pierre Andurand is one of the most successful Energy Trader since the retirement of John Arnold in 2012. Pierre shares with us a clear vision backed by stellar financial returns (consistently above 50% per annum the past 3 years, and above 30% over his 20-year career).

Pierre delivers a masterclass in Energy switching (Oil, Gas, Renewables, Nuclear), talk about elasticity of demand and the impacts of volatility on the transition; for Gerard and Laurent, it is equivalent of having a private tennis lesson with Roger Federer.

Did we have Lehman moments? definitely. Is the worse behind us? quite likely. And how do we see the future? Pretty rosy.

We thank Aquila Capital for their support

Offshore Wind was one of the great development successes of the past decade, growing in 10 years from a few pilot projects to a real industry. Two zones have been at the fore front: the North Sea (with 30GW as of 2021) and China (with +20GW). Better tech, burgeoning supply chain and infrastructure, and a dramatic fall in cost have created tailwinds for this industry.

Offshore Wind is now a technology considered all around the world. However, there is a little problem: the fixed bottom Offshore Industry has benefited from a unique feature of the North Sea, i.e. shallow waters (less than 70m). And if you find great wind resources offshore in a lot of places, the seabed is generally much deeper, in fact too deep for fixed bottom.

Hence, some of the North Sea pioneers have been trying to crack the code of floating offshore wind. A milestone was hit when, in March 2022, Scotland awarded 15GW of seabed for floating. No more experimentation, the race is on.

To talk about this new technology, its promises as well as its challenges, we have invited Stephen Bull, EVP Renewables at Aker Solutions, the Norwegian Engineering giant. Within its offshore wind division, Aker has developed a specific competence relating to foundations, transmission, marine operations, dynamic cable, mooring systems, and subsea power solutions.

Stephen Bull is also Chair of Renewable UK and one the founding father of the offshore wind industry in the UK when he was at Equinor leading the development of Dogger Bank, the largest offshore wind park in the world.

With plans to multiply offshore wind by a factor 10 in the coming decades, and floating being a key technology, Gerard and Laurent are having a great conversation on how to unlock the floating potential, and also discover how “concrete is the unsung hero of floating OSW”.

This episode is produced in partnership with WindEurope
https://windeurope.org/


We thank our partner Aquila Capital
https://www.aquila-capital.de/en/

Decarbonising the shipping industry seemed very aspirational until recently. Lofty goals are out there: “The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has set an ambition to reduce the carbon intensity of emissions from shipping by at least 40% by 2030, and 70% by 2050, compared with 2008 levels. To achieve this, the shipping industry needs to unite in taking urgent action.”

While a lot of talks are centered around hydrogen or ammonia, it is once again the batteries that are making the difference. Namely, advances in batteries and the genuine advantages of electric propulsion vs fuel propulsion are now creating a perfect technical and economic launchpad for a massive decarbonisation of shipping.

Of course, we will start with short distance trips, like for ferries, tugboats, fishing, but the technology has developed so fast in recent years that the possibilities seem much wider. UC Berkeley models that – by the end of the decade – 40% of routes could be electrified without subsidies, not even taking into accounts environmental benefits.
To discuss the electrification of shipping, we have invited Geir Bjørkeli, CEO Corvus Energy to have a conversation about the technical options around the electrification of shipping. Corvus Energy is the leading provider of zero-emission solutions for the ocean space. Corvus Energy’s full product portfolio covers batteries for all types of vessels: Lightweight batteries for tourist and fast passenger crafts, large battery systems for cruise and ro-pax and batteries with high cycling capability for ferries and offshore. Corvus Energy has unsurpassed experience from 600 projects, totaling over 500 MWh and more than 4 million operating hours.
Gerard and Laurent’s big surprise is that we are not talking about massive government subsidies, the economics of expensive fuel and maintenance costs are doing the heavy lifting. Great story!

We thank our partner AQUILA CAPITAL

Reference: UC Berkeley study
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-022-01065-y

In the past two years, we’ve seen a remarkable renaissance of the carbon markets.
Some markets are of a “compliance” type - like in Europe - heavily regulated but limited in geography and scope; but there is limited prospect for an overall Cap & Trade worldwide as carbon markets were ignored in the US IRA - the largest Climate bill ever.
So, what happens when a sector or a company is not covered by those compliance markets but still have pledged a net-zero or carbon-neutrality (whatever that means)? Well, that’s where the “voluntary market” steps in.
Re-born on the ashes of the Kyoto Protocol, projects such as forestry, carbon avoidance and removal are developed and get rewarded for their environmental benefits. That’s not THE solution to climate change, but that could be one of several.
The current voluntary market has quadrupled its size in the last 3 years to 2bnUSD and is expected to reach 50bnUSD by the end of the decade. Still small, compared to a 10bnUSD/day on the oil market… but we need all the help available on our road to a +1.5C world.
Unfortunately, we have immediately witnessed a lot of gaming and greenwashing around the issue of carbon credits. Only horror stories make it to the media, not the great projects (and there are a lot); the former must be banned, the latter promoted and rewarded.
Around Mark Carney, former governor of the central banks of Canada and England, a group of scientists, NGOs, Industries have coalesced into the Integrity Council for Voluntary Carbon Market to create a quality benchmark, and make sure that the carbon credits proposed to corporations on their way to net-zero are sound.
We bring Annette Nazareth, chair of the Integrity Council to discuss about the goal, talk about horror stories and how the ICVCM, in full openness, is establishing rules for a robust market.
(we’re sorry if sometimes the sound quality is not perfect)
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References:
https://icvcm.org/public-consultation/
https://vcmintegrity.org/
https://trove-research.com/
Alessandro Vitelli
Mark Lewis
https://www.ieta.org/
https://verra.org/
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We thank Aquila Capital for their continuous support

Talking about nuclear is tough. In the left corner, a besieged and opaque industry only delivering carefully crafted talking points; and in the right corner, most of the energy economists and financiers that are ignoring promises never met. One can’t escape the feeling that the nuclear industry operates in a parallel universe where models don’t match reality, where actual numbers don’t match forecasts; a world where nuclear generation is flat over the past 10 years while renewables have quadrupled.
Nevertheless, when the current nuclear fleet is either forcefully closed (like in Germany) or becomes unreliable (like in France or Japan) or uneconomic (like in the USA), we see emissions going up, the restart of old coal plants, and a reduction of energy security at enormous cost (If EDF was producing as much as 12 years ago, Europe would yearly get 150TWh of carbon free power, equivalent to 250TWh of natural gas, or more than 50bnEUR ANNUALLY at current price level).
Despite all the flaws of the nuclear industry, the opinion seems to be shifting in its favour; not because of “net zero”, but because of security of supply and crazy fossil fuel prices. The best example of this is the recent U-turn of Japan and South Korea towards Nuclear.

The nuclear industry is at the crossroads between oblivion and reboot.
We wanted to go beyond that “There is no alternative” message and dig deep into the industry’s challenges, pipe dreams but also real and exciting prospects, such as SMR (Small Modular Reactors) and other innovations. We also wanted to talk geopolitics and the role of Russia in the supply chain.
And there is no better guest than Boris Schucht, CEO of Urenco, to have an open debate on the pod. The Urenco Group is a British-German-Dutch nuclear fuel consortium operating several uranium enrichment-plants in Germany, the Netherlands, United States, and United Kingdom. It supplies nuclear power stations in about 15 countries, and has a 29% share of the global market for enrichment services in 2011
Albert Einstein said that the definition of stupidity is doing the same mistakes all over again while expecting a different outcome. We all would wish that nuclear plays a bigger role, from a climate and security of supply perspectives, but the industry needs to put its act together and deliver results rather than false promises.

Link to Michael Barnard's piece on SMR
https://illuminem.com/energyvoices/c1f245f8-d201-498e-9e85-8592095ae2ac

We thank our partner Aquila Capital for their support

This episode is done in partnership with SolarPower Europe.

There is a lot of media around Utility solar, but the real solar revolution is happening one rooftop at the time. In China, the EU and Australia, Rooftop and C&I account for more than 60% of all solar installations (In the US, it’s only 30%). No need to restructure the Distribution network: it’s energy at the point of need.

So, we wanted to do an episode on Rooftop solar, because on one hand, very intelligent people in think-tanks and governments write reports after white papers about decarbonisation, on the other hand, entrepreneurs and industrialists are every day executing the energy transition by installing on-site solar power.

These are the foot soldiers of the energy transition, and they deserve their place in the sun (so to speak).

Hence, we have invited Thomas Kercher the CEO of Febesol, a fast-growing German rooftop solar installer to discuss the nitty-gritty of residential solar.
What are the motivations of his clients? How are the technologies evolving? What does the software look like? How easy it is to get permitting? and most important, what is the Human Resources aspect?
We also discuss the integration of solar into smart home, EV Charger, Batteries, Heat pumps as citizens are looking for lower costs, autonomy, and a new meaning of freedom from bureaucratic and unreliable global systems.

We salute OTOVO, great platform, for providing excellent data.

Great thanks to our partner DLA Piper.

The energy transition is coming; it is not a top-down, it’s a bottom-up.

Energy Efficiency is not sexy, it’s under the radar, hard to invest in. We are talking about small unit amounts, with aggregation problems, credit problems, standardisation problems.
But the whole sector is undertaking a quiet revolution: with the price explosion of retail energy, efficiency is now on everyone’s desk.
In the US, Sunrun has managed to securitise portfolios of rooftop solar using techniques of the mortgage industry. The same techniques are now arriving in Europe, even if it’s more complex because Europe doesn’t have the equivalent of the American FICO score which was introduced 35 years ago and has proven so seminal in the growth of personal lending.
Nevertheless, pioneer utility and distributors like Octopus in the UK or Thermondo in Germany are integrating supply chains and providing financing for a seamless service.
We have the pleasure to receive Alex Betts, fund manager Energy Efficiency at Aquila Capital. We like Aquila because they have a robust methodical approach of EE. We discuss the challenges but also the prospects of EE investment.

We thank our partner DLA Piper for supporting our show

The future of storage is so bright that investing in in the vertical and its adjacencies is the opportunity of a lifetime. At the same time, buyer beware - there are many Theranos-like investment opportunities lurking out there in our vertical. You've got to be very smart to minimize the losers in your portfolio…or, as the great Michael Lewis would say, adopt a “Moneyball” approach.

Where are the successes and where are the pitfalls? You need to be a great financier but also a fantastic scientist to figure out which will be the winning opportunities in the maze of projects floating around.

That’s why we have invited Jeff Chamberlain, CEO of Volta Energy Technologies (a 400mUSD Venture Capital fund) to discuss all the new innovations out there, including solid-state batteries. Jeff Chamberlain launched Volta Energy Technologies (https://volta.vc/ ) from Argonne National Laboratory in 2016. Volta’s investment scope includes batteries, storage, and all the associated technology required to reduce cost and integrate batteries into vehicles and the grid across a spectrum of innovation that includes materials production, batteries, fast-charge tech, power electronics, management software, and recycling. Jeff and his team leverage all their knowledge and experience not only in batteries but also more generally in technology commercialization, physics, engineering, and investing to source, diligence, underwrite, and manage their investments.

We talk about the difficulties of scaling and the need to integrate innovations into the current industrial infrastructure and supply chains, not try to compete against them. The debate doesn’t not avoid “controversial” companies such as Quantum Scape and Energy Vault.

In conclusion, Batterytech is a fantastic field of investing, but there are Zombies out there, not only in VCs but also in public markets under the form of SPACs.
There will be blood.

A great thanks to our partner Aquila Capital

Subsea interconnectors are a very discreet sector, it entails decade-long developments…but are developing fast and have become critical to increasing renewables penetration and enhancing energy security. They were originally developed around the North Sea and the Baltic Sea by TSO (Transmission System Operators) but have now caught the interest of large private infrastructure investors. Those HVDC cables, running for hundreds of kms under the seabed, can carry (in both ways) power equivalent to a nuclear plant.

How are those projects being developed? What are their revenue models? What are the technical options? What does the future look like as pharaonic projects liking continents are now being considered? Gerard and Laurent provide an in-depth view into the beauty and sophistication of those projects with the “captain Nemo” of interconnectors, Simon Ludlam.

Simon, a former investment banker, is the founding partner of Etchea Energy which currently provides the Management Team to the Irish MaresConnect interconnector project. Etchea Energy previously provided Project Director services to the €500m Greenlink Interconnector where it was successful in introducing Cap & Floor regulation in Ireland, securing PCI status for the project, and raising equity finance for the construction phase. Prior to Greenlink, Simon originated and led the development of the €600m ElecLink interconnector project through the Channel Tunnel.

We thank our friend and partner Aquila Capital for supporting the show