Redefining Energy

Delivering 24/7 carbon free power is the holy grail for infrastructure funds. Such progress requires a new approach to investing. New technologies need to be harnessed: Hybridization, storage, and data science. The ESG component is also getting additional scrutiny from investors. So, how will the state-of-the-art infrastructure fund of the 2020’s look like.

We have the privilege of welcoming David Scaysbrook, co-founder and managing partner of Quinbrook Infrastructure Partners. We discuss his vision and execution of infrastructure capable of delivering 24/7 carbon free power. Our conversation covers all type of renewables: wind, solar, hydro, biomass, methane recovery and battery storage. We also talk about the growing importance of digital and ESG.

Reference to two great podcasts:
-Jigar Shah, head of Loans Office Program DOE, on Experts Only https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/experts-only-podcast-104-with-commercial-financing/id1277844958?i=1000545651034
-Elon Musk on the Lex Fridman Show
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/252-elon-musk-spacex-mars-tesla-autopilot-self-driving/id1434243584?i=1000546357873

Thank you to our new partner DLA Piper.

Happy new year 2022 to all our listeners.
In this Episode, its Nostradamus vs. Cassandra all over again: Laurent and Gerard review their 2021 predictions (Episode 42) and look forward to the future. How accurate were our two co-hosts’ predictions for 2021?
1) “The Empire strikes back”, legacy players in the Energy and Automotive sectors will bounce back
2) The unstoppable development of renewables
3) The SPACs* valuation hang-over, most of them imploding after reaching unjustifiable valuations
4) The tipping point in EVs production and adoption
5) The renaissance of the Carbon markets
6) The growing leadership of China in the Energy Transition…
Get the results and see how was the more accurate

And now our six predictions for 2022:
1)The Energy Transition is not going to be a smooth ride
2)The Hydro and water crisis
3)The decade of geothermal
4)Energy High Prices
5)Elon Musk (Time’s “Person of the Year”) out of Tesla
6)Power Market Structure Reform

We thank again Aquila Capital for continuing to support the show in 2022, and we have lined up very exciting contents for you all in the coming months. Happy new Year!

*SPAC: Special Purpose Acquisition Company

2021 looked like an “annus horribilis” for the solar industry. Price increases, supply chain problems, threat of taxes on importations. Is the solar industry at the end of 2021 just doom and gloom? Absolutely not. The solar industry has grown an amazing 27% this year, and the trend will continue in 2022.

We bring the best analyst of the industry, Jenny Chase, Head of Solar at Bloomberg NEF to go through the trends, in volume, prices, technologies, supply and demand. We discuss why solar resists all threats and establish itself, despite recent price rises, as the cheapest source of electricity worldwide.
And to finish the year on a high note, this marvelous quote from our eternal hero (and TIME’s Person of the Year) Elon Musk: “The sun is absurdly, overwhelmingly the source of energy in our solar system. Doesn’t even need maintenance – just works!”

We also want to congratulate Patrick Graichen (Ep52) for becoming new Germany’s Secretary of State for Energy and Climate; Michael Barnard (Ep59) second most downloaded episode; and finally, the king, our friend and mentor, Paul Martin (Ep44) for the most downloaded episode of the year (and ever!).

Paul just co-created the Hydrogen Science Coalition (https://h2sciencecoalition.com/), a group of independent academics, scientists and engineers who are working to bring an evidence-based viewpoint to the heart of the hydrogen discussion. We fully endorse that initiative. Go Paul, Tom, Bernard, David and Jochen.

And as we close the year, we thank again our long-term partner Aquila Capital, who has decided to continue next year. Yeah!

Merry Christmas to all our great listeners (before the EU Commission bans it as “too offensive”) and talk to you all in 2022.

EV charging is developing exponentially. It is now a 30bnUSD market per year, growing at a astonishing pace of 20%. More than 1.5m EV charging stations are now operational in the world, 50% in China, 30% in Europe. The US will catch up soon thank to the Biden Infrastructure plan that commits 7.5bnUSD to EV charging.

But ultra-fast charging comes with technical challenges as the impact on the local electricity networks are tremendous. On the one hand, large EV charging networks are being deployed with a commoditised approach and questionable business models; on the other hand, new turn-key sophisticated solutions start to emerge, such as integrating batteries and EV charging, creating micro-grids at retailers’ premises.

We invite Arcady Sosinov, CEO FreeWire Technologies, a Californian Start-Up that has raised more than 100mUSD from leading investors (Riverstone, BP, BlueBear), to discuss the future of Ultra-fast EV charging.

And it is not going to be necessarily what people currently think.

As COP26 comes to a close, there has been a flurry of commitments to invest trillions of dollars in green technologies and carbon neutral projects. That is the core of ESG investing (or is it?).
ESG investing has grown exponentially since the famous 2015 Marc Carney’s speech "Breaking the Tragedy of the Horizon" and the 2020 Blackrock letter “Because capital markets pull future risk forward, we will see changes in capital allocation more quickly than we see changes to the climate itself”. Numbers are dizzying. ESG investment has almost trebled over the last five years, reaching $50 trillion in assets in 2021.

At the same time, ESG investing seems to be victim of its own success with inflated claims not met by facts. With more than 600 ratings and 5,000 metrics, ESG has become a maze where investors are drowned in an “alphabet soup” of standards while some financial institutions seem to be more focused on fees than purpose. At last, the regulators - whether the EU Commission or the SEC - are starting to intervene to create standards.

To try to understand the dynamics of ESG investing, its challenges, effectiveness, and possible solutions, we have invited Catherine Howarth, CEO of Shareaction. Shareaction is a NGO working to assess the quality of sustainability practice of the world’s largest institutional investors, and to hold investors accountable on the gap between their sustainability claims and actions.
We exchange candidly with Catherine on ESG ratings, shareholders’ activism, the divestment movement, and the role of regulators.


References

Shareaction: https://shareaction.org/

Quilter on ESG: https://media.quilter.com/search/greenwashing-tops-investors-concerns-around-esg-products-new-research-finds/
Talking Responsibly: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/talking-responsibly/id1547007524
DivestInvest: https://www.divestinvest.org/
“Doing Good or Feeling Good” by EDHEC: https://energycentral.com/c/ec/doing-good-or-feeling-good-detecting-greenwashing-climate-investing-edhec
EU Taxonomy: https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/banking-and-finance/sustainable-finance/eu-taxonomy-sustainable-activities_en
DWS (Deutsche Bank) rocked by $1trillion SEC greenwashing probe: https://www.internationalinvestment.net/news/4036306/dws-rocked-usd1trillion-sec-greenwashing-probe-reports
Bank of International Settlements: “A taxonomy of taxonomies” https://www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap118.pdf

Renewables are developing very fast, but without a proper distribution system, the energy transition will soon stall. So, what does tomorrow’s green grid looks like? It seems like a dull subject, but the grid modernisation is the necessary condition of a successful roll out of wind, solar and EV Charging.
What needs to change, what type of investment are necessary, not just from a deployment perspective but also in terms of efficiency, costs, and regulation.
We have the privilege of inviting Antonio Cammisecra, Head of Global Infrastructure & Networks at the giant Italian Utility ENEL. ENEL operates distribution networks in eight countries on two continents. Antonio provides us with a ground-breaking vision of tomorrow’s green grid, digital and adaptable. He also unveils breakthrough management techniques such as quantum computing and cyber-security.
Distribution networks should definitely not be underhyped.

Thank you to Aquila Capital for supporting the show

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For the past decade, Natural Gas has been promoted as the “Clean, Reliable and Cheap” fuel to assist the Energy Transition. Well that cosy theory, heavily promoted by the fossil fuel companies, is collapsing in front of our eyes with the Gas crunch affecting Europe, Asia and Latin America.
As of 6 October 2021, TTF (the Dutch gas hub) front month prices briefly touched 160EUR/MWh, 8 times higher than where they were at beginning of the year, and equivalent to a staggering 56USD/mmbtu or 350USD/bbl of Oil.

In this episode, that we record almost live, Gerard and Laurent try to analyse the causes, the impacts, and the long-term consequences of what we dub “The Natgaspocalypse”. We might as well have called the episode “From Russia with love” as we are discussing, amongst other factors, the role of Russia in the current energy crunch.

But a lot of other long-term and short-term factors have come together to create the perfect storm. So, if supply is being analysed, there is also a lot to discuss about demand.

How those crazy energy prices are fed to the final consumers is creating havoc within the Energy supply chain and triggers heavy-handed, hastily designed, government interventions. Such crises certainly distract the decision makers from their lofty “Net Zero by 2050” goals.

Even when the market ends up rebalancing, as commodities market always do, the suddenness of the shock and its magnitude will generate significant consequences that will go beyond price controls and geopolitics. Governments will need to be more hands-on, whether through a faster decarbonisation or simply doubling down on gas.

The Energy Transition will not be a smooth journey.

We thank Aquila Capital for their support
https://www.aquila-capital.de/en/

What are the technological options to compensate for – as the German say - the “Dunkelflaute” (dark doldrums), those winter weeks of low winds and low solar? That’s the code that will have to be cracked by Long Duration Energy Storage (above 8 hours and up to several days). Because, if no realistic solution is implemented in the coming years, we will still have gas peakers in the XXIIth century.
Gerard and Laurent have invited Michael Barnard, an internationally recognised technology cleantech consultant, with world-class expertise on grid storage technology, electrification, and hydrogen.
Together we review and analyse the various options: how far can Li-Ion batteries get us to? How to maximise the value of pumped hydro storage? How to scale flow batteries? Can we even rely of more breakthrough technologies?
It will take time, will need government intervention, energy market reforms, but the solutions are there. Long Duration Energy Storage is definitely the “Final Frontier”.

References
Disclaimer: Michael works as adviser for Agora Energy Technologies - https://agoraenergy.ca/
Prices of batteries: https://about.bnef.com/blog/battery-pack-prices-cited-below-100-kwh-for-the-first-time-in-2020-while-market-average-sits-at-137-kwh/
MIT research:
https://news.mit.edu/2021/powering-energy-transition-better-storage-0329
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-021-00796-8

Steel and cement with their 2,000 mills and 3,000 kilns, together currently emit 15% of the world’s CO2. So far, they’ve been exempted from carbon trading or carbon pricing, which means no significant reductions have been implemented. But in a 1.5degree and Net Zero scenarios, they start to feel the pressure.

We brought Dolf Gielen, Director Innovation and Technology at IRENA (International Renewable Energy Agency) into the conversation to try to understand why those industries are so hard to decarbonise. And we are focusing the debate on a very simple choice: do you fix the fuel (with CCS – Carbon Capture and Storage of CO2) or do you switch the fuel (with – for example Hydrogen or Biomass)?

There are a lot of hurdles to overcome, such as: bad economics, international competition (especially for steel, not so for cement), and regulators who don’t seem to be very interested.

Some promising options are now on the table, but they will require massive governments interventions.

References:
Engineering with Rosie (Youtube) on CCS technologies: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fC388uNJhUY

An excellent blog on cement emissions:
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/co2-emission-from-cement-industry-whats-best-estimate-claude-lorea/

McKinsey on decarbonizing Steel:
https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/metals-and-mining/our-insights/decarbonization-challenge-for-steel

Dolf Gielen: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dolf-gielen-852ab514/

And, last but not least, a hilarious video explaining really how CCS/CCUS works
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MSZgoFyuHC8

Many Thanks to Aquila Capital for supporting the show
https://www.aquila-capital.de/en/

Methane is the largest source of greenhouse gas after CO2. The latest IPCC report has flagged the issue as “Code Red”. Until recently, Methane Emissions had not been universally monitored nor managed. Hence, how can Natural Gas legitimately claim that is it is a “bridge fuel” in the fight against Climate Change?
Thankfully, the landscape is starting to evolve; and it’s about time, as methane emissions represent 8x those of the much-publicised aviation sector.
Behind this major improvement is the non-for-profit MIQ, co-piloted by the prestigious RMI (Rocky Mountain Institute). MIQ had devised a ranking system for all Oil and Gas provenance, assessing and grading the content of venting, leaking, and flaring. The MIQ system leads to third party certification, a major milestone in the fight against Climate Change.
Gerard and Laurent seat with Georges Tijbosch, senior advisor at MIQ, who is deploying those major advancements, which might have significant geopolitical implications.
Finally, Gerard debunks Laurent’s wild conspiracy theories around Russian gas.

References:
MIQ: https://miq.org/
Capterio: https://capterio.com/flareintel
Kayrros: https://www.kayrros.com/methane-watch/

A great thanks to Aquila Capital for supporting the show: https://www.aquila-capital.de/en/