Reformasi Dispatch

A recent presidential fashion statement -- a bright yellow necktie -- triggered anticipation that he may harbor designs on a takeover of Golkar, the Soeharto-era ruling party that will likely remain second-largest in the next parliament.  Insider sources cited by Tempo magazine corroborated this indication of this maneuvering via sartorial elegance.  But a Golkar takeover next December would be no simple task, even for the powerful Joko Widodo -- and it might conflict with the interests of Prabowo Subianto.  Also: Jeff and Kevin discuss Prabowo's Free Lunch program and its costs, along with a possible parliamentary process to censure the government for wayward handling of the election process.

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Nickel smelter air pollution, and the cost on the economy and public health, is the focus of substantive research in a new 100-page report from Crea and Celios.  Crea analyst Katherine Hassan discusses the findings, methodology, and implications -- including the possibility of much of Eastern Indonesia eventually becoming a highly polluted and impoverished zone.  At issue is whether regulatory enforcement will address options for cleaner nickel processing technology, smokestack scrubbing and deployment of renewable energy. 

Given the unmatched attributes of Indonesia's nickel resources and the imperative for transitioning to EV fleets worldwide, nickel‑industry externalities take on global significance.  Also: Jeff and Kevin discuss how the new parliament may shake out and what a limited cabinet reshuffle signals about post-election politics.

To read Celios x CREA's report on nickel downstreaming industry, go to https://energyandcleanair.org/publication/debunking-the-value-added-myth-in-nickel-downstream-industry/

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Pollster Seth Soderborg joins for our post election wrap up as Indonesians overwhelmingly cast ballots in the first round for Prabowo Subianto who syphoned support from Joko Widodo's fellow party member, Ganjar Pranowo. Now Ganjar's party, the Indonesia Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) must decide whether to join a governing coalition or reprise its role as parliamentary opposition. That's something its chair, Megawati Sukarnoputri may relish more than her cadres who may have developed a taste for power over the past decade under Widodo. 

Also Wahyu Dyatmika, CEO of Info Media Digital, the digital arm of Tempo Media Group joins after the break to talk about ongoing harassment of reporters and cyber attacks during the campaign, driving up the risks and costs to media companies which seek to hold the powerful to account.

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The Prabowo-Gibran ticket has succeeded in portraying the 14 February national election as, in effect, a referendum on Widodo-ism -- with themselves on the overwhelmingly popular side promising "continuity".  But will it instead, unbeknownst to many, actually prove to be a referendum on democracy? Jeff and Kevin discuss new polling data and the impact (if any) of some livelier public discourse in the final days approaching balloting.  We expect a comfortable first-round majority for Prabowo.  Also: a look at the legislative elections, the election-day Quick Count methodology, and some consideration of post-election policymaking.

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If you enjoy Reformasi Dispatch, you might enjoy our special episode.
In this special episode, we talk to Andreas Harsono, a veteran reporter and rights advocate writing for the NGO Human Rights Watch.

Get the episode on Buy Me A Coffee
https://www.buymeacoffee.com/reformasi/e/219468

In the final days of campaigning, Prabowo has benefited from joint appearances with the popular president, but prospects for a one-round win are nonetheless questionable.  The professional public-opinion research analyst Seth Soderberg joins the pod to delve into the dynamics and assess probabilities.  Also: Jeff and Kevin examine cabinet resignation rumors and review the final presidential candidate debate.

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As the presidential campaign enters the home stretch, President Widodo may weigh whether to overtly endorse Prabowo, which would indelibly tie him to Prabowo's fortunes.  Joint public appearances have been sustaining Prabowo's momentum, but prospects for a first-round majority are not yet fully assured.  Also: Jeff and Kevin discuss the politics of rice and food aid as the Widodo administration fends off a spike in the price of the key commodity just days ahead of the balloting.

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NetGrit founder Hadar Gumay explains the mechanics of the 14 February election process - from the voter list to the official count, and all the balloting procedures and monitoring systems in between.  Given his experience, this is tantamount to having the workings of a car engine explained by Henry Ford.  He cites the complexities, including Papua's communal noken voting, but notes the remarkable organizational successes of past elections.  Nonetheless, the upcoming process is not without cause for concern.  Also: Jeff and Kevin discuss Gibran Rakabuming's latest debate (a bit odd), a Foreign Corrupt Practices (FCPA) case, whether PDI-P is re-unifying and prospects for cabinet departures -- perhaps including the iconic finance minister, Sri Mulyani Indrawati.

To download Netgrit's Jaga Suara App on Google Playstore, click here: Jaga Suara 2024

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As we gear up for an election year we are turning to our donors but this time we are giving back! As a token of our gratitude for your US$20 donation we are making available exclusive content, starting with a special podcast episode recapping the fourth presidential debate. Kevin and Jeff offer up analysis of who had a good night and who fell short. Donors will get insight into whether Indonesia’s fifth presidential election will go to a runoff in June. And if it does which candidate will make the cut. We also discuss how has the Indonesian electorate changed since 2019 and how the candidates must pivot to reflect young voters who who don’t remember life before the country’s transition to democracy and yet crave a cleaner environment and better jobs and higher quality of life. To donate and download your exclusive content, follow the links in the show notes. And thank-you.

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Should Gerindra Chair Prabowo Subianto be thankful that President Widodo has provided vital backing?  Or should the president be grateful that Prabowo has provided a lifeline?  How these two regard one another may shape Indonesia's political outlook for some time.  For 'Perth-spective,' we turn to Murdoch University's Indo-Pacific Research Center and its senior fellow Ian Wilson, who is actually currently at Singapore's ISEAS.  Prof Wilson recounts Prabowo's past campaigning and Widodo's own political forays in recent years to assess the logicality of campaign ads about 'continuity'.  Also: Jeff and Kevin touch on poll data and the effects of debates on the campaign.

Get our special episode on the 4th Presidential Debate on:
https://www.buymeacoffee.com/reformasi/extras

It takes a lot of money to run a podcast. You need subscription fees for hosting, audio recording services, editor's salary and music licensing. Luckily, you, estemeed listeners of Reformasi Dispatch podcast can help us.

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