Reformasi Dispatch

BBC's veteran Southeast correspondent joins Reformasi Dispatch to assess how Asean is coping with super‑power rivalry in a 'post‑globalization' framework.  The answer (spoiler alert): could be better.  Jonathan contributes his perspective on conditions in Myanmar and the importance of Indonesia's diplomatic efforts via Asean; he also touches on EVs in SE Asia.  Also in the episode: Jeff and Kevin cover some sudden shifts in Indonesia's presidential nominating alliances and the VP sweepstake maneuvers.

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Indonesia's foreign policy is even freer and more active than usual, as President Joko Widodo
negotiates the G20, Asean, IPEF, Aukus, the OECD, Brics and other acronyms.  On the eve of Asean's Jakarta Summit and in the wake of Widodo's address to Brics, the pod consults foreign policy expert Dewi Fortuna (of the Habibie Center and the National Research and Innovation Agency or 'Brin') who sets forth her "Hedging Plus" description of Indonesia's approach.  Also: Jeff and Kevin discuss Ganjar's partial polling recovery and his recent campaign-trail performance.

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The Indonesia analyst for the Helsinki-based NGO Crea joins the Reformasi Dispatch podcast to cut through the haze concerning the world's worst smog.  We examine SO2, NOx and 2.5ug particulates in Jakarta's 'airshed' and consider the urgency of revamping regulations on coal.  While the issue pits coal-related interests against considerations of public health -- and official pronouncements tend to defend coal while faulting the transportation sector -- we ask where policymakers' priorities actually lie.  Also in this episode: Ganjar catches up in polls and Golkar's former chair wins early release from prison.

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Earlier this month Indonesia government data showed the country’s GDP grew at an annualized rate of 5.2 per cent during the three months to June 30. It’s a rate of growth that would be the envy of most big economies not least because it has so far avoided triggering rapid price inflation while paralleling an overall improvement in government services.

The state of the economy has helped support a generally sunny outlook among Indonesia’s voters and their favorable views of their outgoing  president, Joko Widodo, who is enjoying stratospheric approval ratings as a result. Widodo’s support is so robust that a nod from him to one of the three likely contenders vying to replace him may go a long way toward securing the top job. But it’s a not an episode of Reformasi Dispatch without a healthy dose of skepticism and this case is no different. Investment ought to be playing a much bigger role in driving Indonesia's growth.  And while 5.2% is nice, GDP really should be growing at something closer to 7 per cent -- unseen in post Suharto-era Indonesia -- to soak up surplus labour and boost wages.

Joining Jeff and Kevin is Angus Mackintosh, founder of CrossASEAN Research and Insight Provider on Smartkarma. We recorded our interview on Wednesday Aug 16th. Flight cancellations and the Independence Day holidays wreaked havoc with our production schedule last week. We’ll be back with a full episode on Friday August 25th.

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A cap-and-trade scheme to encourage emissions reductions is imminent, with application for the power sector as well as avoided deforestation.  Jeff welcomes back Bill Sullivan from Christian Teo & Partners to talk about new regulations paving the way towards carbon exchange next month. While small and likely restricted to the domestic market, Indonesia stands out among its neighbours for venturing into the market for carbon trading and offsets, with all the first-mover advantages that the move may bring.

Also: a Gibran Run?  Jeff and Kevin discuss the elite gravitation towards a Prabowo-Rakabuming ticket, including pressure on the Golkar chair -- and how Ganjar could potentially respond.

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Jeff, Kevin and Steven talk with the Special Rapporteur for the UN on Myanmar about the country's worsening crisis and what levers ASEAN can use to further its Five Point Consensus. Also: Airlangga Hartarto faces 12 hours of scrutiny from the Attorney General’s Office while facing a rift in his own Golkar party; yet more intrigue affects Pertamina; and Foreign Minister Marsudi in the recent Asean ministers' summit.

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Kevin and Jeff speak with the human rights activist and high profile lawyer on unfinished business criminal justice reform under the Widodo presidency, his defense of Time Magazine and the Bali Nine, and prospects for governance reform under a Prabowo presidency about which he’s surprisingly open-minded.

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We consult the Teneo SE Asia expert Bob Herrera Lim on the intricacies of what may be a watershed juncture in the politics of Thailand.  Also: breaking down Prabowo's Najwa Shihab interview and re-assessing prospects for the indictment of Anies Baswedan.

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The leadership of Indonesia’s governing party, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP) indicates a rapprochement between their respective leaders Megawati Sukarnoputri and Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, ending their yearlong estrangement and potentially upending President Joko Widodo’s governing parliamentary coalition.

PDIP elites resent Widodo’s reluctance to distance himself with his two time rival and presidential candidate, Prabowo Subianto. Also in the episode: the government readies a bevy of five- to- 10 year “golden visas” aimed at attracting  highly skilled workers, retirees, individuals with globally recognized talent a digital nomads.

And Steven joins Kevin and Jeff to discuss Jakarta’s interim governor’s ambition to begin construction of the capital’s seawall.

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The long-awaited ban on exports of raw bauxite ore is in place and Reformasi Dispatch turns to an expert on resource‑sector regulations to examine the drivers of policymaking -- including stark variations that differentiate assorted minerals such as nickel, bauxite, copper and tin.  Also: a review of the start of Minister Luhut Panjaitan's defamation proceedings against two prominent human rights activists; and a look at one of the world's most prominent Indonesians, the 17‑year singer-songwriter Ariani Putri.

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