Reformasi Dispatch

Gerindra Chair Prabowo Subianto is showing ‘buyer’s remorse’.  By all accounts the three time presidential hopeful is casting about for a running mate who can add vigor to his so far lackluster campaign.  Polls show Prabowo – with near 100 percent name recognition – backsliding while Central Java Gov Ganjar Pranowo clearly leads in multiple credible surveys. National Awakening Party (PKB) Chair Muhaimin Iskandar is expecting the VP nomination but Prabowo is dragging his feet on setting up the inter-party secretariat that will help the coalition plan the 2024 presidential campaign.  PKB is the unofficial political vehicle for Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) – the world’s biggest Islamic organization. 

Alienating Iskandar puts at risk his sway with a vast constituency of moderate Muslim voters.  Also on the pod: the barbaric practice of female genital mutilation (FGM) is finally in the news, largely due a government‑sanctioned Congress of Women Islamic Leaders.  And Michael Smith, Northeast Asia correspondent for the Australian Financial Review joins to discuss the escalating protests against China’s Covid restrictions, the outlook for President Xi Jinping and a deteriorating investment case for an economy many considered the factory for the world.

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When it comes to transitioning to renewables and electrifying transport, Arsjad Rasjid, KADIN’s chairman, says the time of “talk, talk, talk” is over. Government and business need to work together to make power generation cleaner, to attract tens of billions in higher tech industries like electric vehicles as well as in information and communication technology. The wind is certainly at Indonesia’s back. FDI in machinery and metals is double what it was a year ago. At the G20 Indonesia secured US$20b in funding from G7 nations to retire coal fired plants (Indika Energy, Pak Arsjad’s own company will be among the first to benefit). But big economies including the US and the EU are introducing subsidies and quotas requiring big chunks of EV battery production to be based in those markets. Will retiring coal powered electricity just free up dirty coal for export. Indonesia wants to participate in the supply chains that churn out the next generation of EVs and batteries not just consume them. But will red tape hamstring it’s bid to escape the so called middle income trap? It’s a considerable list of agenda items for any organization, for Indonesia Inc there’s little time to waste.

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Indonesia has pulled off a well-run G20 summit with no boycotts during a -- to put it mildly -- difficult year. Peter Mumford of the Eurasia Group joins Kevin and Jeff to discuss all the summitry and what it means for Indonesia's standing in the world. And: Peter runs through the Malaysian election and considers why the electorate appears to be tuning out.

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A moment of jocular rapport between the president and Prabowo Subianto sent pundits spinning this week.  It appeared, when quoted in print, to constitute an endorsement of the Gerindra chair -- but not so.  The president remains unaligned ahead of the 2024 race, but his cryptic jest at least made clear that his endorsement will be a prize. 

Also: Multiple credible polls now show Ganjar in sole possession of first place, by a statistically significant margin, and the United Alliance (KIB) is still his likely nominating vehicle.  Finally: with Putin confirming his G20 absence, Ref Dispatch discusses what the summit means for Indonesia.

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The Holy Grail of electric-vehicle production is a nickel battery derived from a genuinely green process, from mining through hydrometallurgy to handling residual tailings.  Indonesia holds the bulk of the world's nickel -- but its current and planned projects for refining ore into battery-grade material (or 'MHP') are anything but green.  These use conventional high-pressure acid leaching (HPAL), which entails high costs, acidic gases, and vast tailings.  Indonesia's current trajectory points to the exclusion of its battery material from key markets (EU, US, et al) where regulators and consumers will demand high standards.  But at least one company, Altilium, offers something completely different: an economical way to process ore into MHP -- with over 95 percent acid recycling and zero leftover tailings.  Paired with renewable energy, the prospect exists for carbon-neutral battery production.  Could it work, at scale?  In this episode of Reformasi Dispatch, Jakarta-based Altilium CEO and Monty Python aficionado Chris Gower responds to our (Spanish) inquisition.

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The state of the Anti-Corruption Commission (KPK), trends in the police and the atmosphere for discourse are factors affecting Indonesia's outlook for legal-system predictability and the rule of law -- which in turn drive development and democratization.  Joining the pod to evaluate a tumult of trends is Prof. Laode Syarif, a distinguished former KPK member (2014-19) and the current executive head of the Partnership for Governance Reform, an NGO that has long played a crucial role in reform. 

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A scheme to nominate President Joko Widodo for vice president, which is suddenly occupying headlines, would face multiple hurdles – legal, ethical, political and electoral.  The idea may have arisen from the camp of Gerindra Chair Prabowo Subianto, but it has at least some currency with Widodo’s supporters.  It therefore serves as an indicator that they may be losing heart in the prospects for nominating Widodo’s ally, Central Java Gov Ganjar Pranowo.  In fact, Ganjar’s strong poll standing is still likely to attract sufficient party support for a nomination at some stage.  ‘Widodo for VP’ reflects the establishment's eagerness to find a path to a friendly successor regime. 

Also in this episode: prospects for police reform emanating from the 'Brigadir J' case revelations, and how a change in PPP's chair could boost outgoing Jakarta Gov Anies Baswedan. 

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 Kevin and Jeff talk about President Joko Widodo’s decision to raise fuel prices and claw back some of the nearly 700 trillion rupiah in subsidies expected this year and how more price hikes may be in the offing. Said Iqbal of the Indonesian Trade Union Confederation warns of national strikes if the price hikes aren’t reversed. How Jokowi linked groups are beginning to campaign for Central Java governor Ganjar Pranowo ahead of the 2024. And finally a brief discussion of grisly alleged murders and dismemberment by Indonesian military of Papuan civilians.

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Indonesia’s Islamic firebrand suddenly won early release from prison.  The founder of the banned Islamic Defenders Front (FPI) has repeatedly shook national politics -- but conditions have changed since his zenith in 2017 and Reformasi Dispatch discusses what might come next.  

Also: A major step back on climate policy as the government indefinitely postponed its long-awaited tax on carbon; Jeff and Kevin discuss the overlap of political and industrial interests at stake.  And the latest cooking-oil imbroglio.  

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Kevin and Jeff talk with Harvard academic and pollster Seth Soderborg about the art and science of taking the temperature of the Indonesian electorate. It's a tough and expensive process. Use phones or online surveys and you risk missing huge chunks of the population with no regular access to the Internet. And respondents don't tend to like to express a definitive opinions, opting if possible for a middle-of-the-road answer.

Still, answer they do -- at length -- meaning that if you have the resources and time reputable opinion surveys can turn out surprisingly accurate data.

For well over a year, polling regarding presidential preference for the February 2024 election has clearly shown three potential nominees well ahead of all others, namely: two-time past contender Lt Gen (ret) Prabowo Subianto; Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo; and Jakarta Gov Anies Baswedan. 

An April poll by Indikator Politik showed that, in a field of 19 potential candidates, Ganjar and Prabowo were on top, with support from 27 percent and 24 percent of respondents, respectively.  Because the poll’s error margin was three percentage points, this technically constitutes a tie.  But that poll also showed that only 73 percent of respondents recognized Ganjar’s name, while 98 know Prabowo – in effect, constituting upside potential for Ganjar as he becomes more well-known.  Baswedan garnered 19 percent in the poll, while no others won support from more than four percent. 

In late May, a poll by Litbang Kompas also identified Ganjar and Prabowo in a virtual tie for first, with Baswedan in third.

Enjoy the show!

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