Reformasi Dispatch

A renewed push to open Pandora’s box of amendments – potentially scuppering direct presidential elections – narrowly failed, for now.  Jeff and Kevin discuss the actors, aims, party stances, and ‘Trojan Horse’ stratagem.  Also:  an interview with  Aim Sinpeng of the University of Sydney regarding methods that online hate speech perpetrators use to evade platform controls.  Finally, a look at PDI-P’s latest posturing regarding the presidential election and a glimpse of prospects for rooftop solar arrays.

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 Jeff and Kevin discuss the new Charta Politika poll showing the Central Java head ahead of both other major potential contenders for president in 2024.  Ganjar Pranowo is the figure with momentum at present – as well as the most upside potential.  Given his gubernatorial record and his earnest approach to reform, the trend bodes well at an early stage of the momentous election process.  Also: the most notorious integrationist militia leader from East Timor receives a meritorious service medal from President Joko Widodo, outraging human rights NGOs.  And domestic perceptions of coal as a mainstay of Indonesia’s energy resilience could shift – if producers continue prioritizing lucrative exports ahead of fixed-price sales to the State Power Company (PLN).  Finally: how events in Afghanistan may affect views of the US in Asia.

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Margaret Barry, The Bali Children Foundation founder explains the struggles of schooling in disadvantaged communities amid the prolonged pandemic. Also: Jeff and Kevin discuss political machinations that persist despite the crisis conditions gripping the country.

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Breakthrough deaths underscore a need for Coronavac efficacy data.  As cases tumble in Jakarta and western Java, most off Java provinces are spiking – Jeff and Kevin examine the trends.  Also: how governors have fared politically and the latest maneuvers of Maharani and Moeldoko.  And, a setback for geothermal energy?  Finally, a look at encouraging FDI growth.  Joining the pod from New Delhi is the India and Indonesia analyst from Apac Assistance, Anshika Singh, who helps assess how India’s experience with the Delta variant can be instructive for Indonesia.

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Jeff and Kevin conduct a 30-minute interview in English with the leader of West Java’s 50 million residents on 23 July.  Gov Kamil provides a thorough overview of crisis conditions and describes measures to manage an acute shortage of healthcare personnel.  Also, the provincial government’s initiatives to extend telemedicine, free vitamins and drugs and basic social assistance for the poor.  The governor also touches on investment inflows and factory workforce management in West Java’s vast industrial sector.

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Case detections are declining on a moving-average basis in Jakarta and, more recently, nationwide.  Jeff and Kevin discuss the trends and the restrictions outlook in light of a newly released study of antibody prevalence in Jakarta.  Also: findings from the Survey Institute (LSI) regarding President Widodo’s approval rating and public perceptions about vaccination.  Finally, CGM CIMB Securities Head of Indonesia Research Erwan Teguh joins the pod to assess economic conditions, shed light on the state of the banks and consider the impact of mobility curbs on the informal sector.

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Bob Herrera Lim, Southeast Asia risk analyst for the consultancy Teneo, places Indonesia’s precipitous, unabated case spike in a regional context.  With the most vaccinated people per capita in the region (save Singapore), Indonesia poses a test for how well Sinovac’s Coronavac vaccine fares against the now predominant Delta variant.  And while a public health crisis in Malaysia precipitated the downfall of a government, the same is hardly likely in Indonesia.  Plus: Jeff and Kevin discuss the hot topic of credit-card usage among Pertamina directors and the tenuous role of Basuki Purnama ('Ahok') as the state oil company’s president commissioner.

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With Java in the grip of a long-dreaded case spike fuelled by the Delta variant, the government is attempting to impose the strictest curbs applied to date.  Jeff and Kevin review the latest conditions and examine the implications.  Also: a round-up of political and justice issues including a test of free speech, charges for a former minister, the Omnibus’s first court test and the Chamber of Commerce undergoes change.

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Several countries have higher daily caseloads, but Indonesia has the sharpest spike underway.  Many delta-driven transmissions may be going undetected, especially with patients queuing for beds in hospitals on Java.  Tighter restrictions take effect on 2 June, but should the president do more?  Jeff and Kevin discuss the pandemic with the University of Indonesia Professor of Epidemiology Dr. Pandu Riono.  He critiques cabinet decision-making and discusses the manning of makeshift emergency hospitals.  Also: what case trends among fully vaccinated healthcare workers reveal about the ‘delta resilience’ of Coronavac.

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Simon Flint, The 1,000 Days Fund Co-Founder explains the causes and effects of below-par growth in under-fives – something that affects nearly one in three Indonesian children.  He explores the role for NGOs in supporting the Widodo Administration’s high-profile anti-stunting campaign.  Also: Jeff and Kevin discuss the case spike, the government’s assorted handling efforts, and implications for the economy – as well as the latest presidential poll data from Saiful Mujani Research (SMRC).

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