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Retail real estate in early 2026 is defined by imbalance. In many suburban, open-air markets, demand is overwhelming supply. Five tenants are chasing one quality space. Vacancy is razor-thin. New construction still does not pencil. The result is leverage—and it is shifting.
Chris Ressa and Andrew Mahr of Bialow Real Estate dig into how that leverage is actually showing up in deals. Face rents are not always jumping overnight, but economics are tightening through lower tenant improvement packages, higher tenant capital contributions, and tougher negotiations around delivery costs. Retail is repricing—just not always in the most obvious way.
The conversation also highlights the growing divide between markets. Urban cores tied to office traffic remain uneven, while suburban lifestyle centers are absorbing demand from retailers with capital, patience, and long-term conviction. Strong operators are choosing to invest more upfront to control fixed occupancy costs over time, especially in junior anchor and specialty formats.
A North Miami case study brings the thesis to life. An off-market Wild Fork deal shows how the best sites are no longer “available”—they are unlocked through persistence, relationships, and a willingness to target occupied real estate. The takeaway is simple: in today’s market, waiting for vacancy is passive. Going direct is how deals get done.
What You’ll Hear00:00 – Welcome and introductions
Chris Ressa welcomes Andrew Mahr and sets the stage for a wide-ranging conversation on retail, relationships, and the market.
01:00 – Running, resilience, and perspective
Andrew shares his Boston Marathon journey and why endurance, advocacy, and long-term commitment shape how he approaches business.
03:00 – What Bilo Real Estate actually does
A look at Bilo’s role as a national, outsourced real estate department and why deep market familiarity matters.
05:15 – Retail in 2026: a tale of two markets
Urban cores tied to office demand lag while suburban, open-air retail faces intense competition and limited supply.
07:45 – Why new retail still doesn’t pencil
Interest rates, construction costs, and underwriting realities continue to stall speculative retail development.
09:30 – Leasing momentum and shifting deal economics
Rents are rising—but often through reduced TIs and higher tenant capital, not just headline numbers.
12:00 – Who’s winning: strong retailers with capital
Why the healthiest tenants are choosing to invest more upfront to control long-term occupancy costs.
13:30 – Hospitality and wellness as growth categories
Restaurants, social wellness, and experiential concepts emerge as powerful drivers in mixed-use environments.
15:20 – Retail’s changing role in mixed-use projects
How retail is anchoring hotels and serving as support in residential-heavy developments.
16:00 – Off-market strategy in action: North Miami
A Wild Fork case study shows how targeting the best corner—occupied or not—creates opportunity.
18:45 – Why “availability” is the wrong starting point
Reverse-engineering markets around the best sites instead of what’s listed.
21:00 – Relationships over transactions
How trust between landlords, tenants, and advisors accelerates deals and fuels long-term growth.
25:00 – Closing thoughts on partnership and execution
A reminder that alignment, patience, and execution—not timing the market—drive success.
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Retail real estate is not just stable — it is entering a meaningfully better phase of the cycle.
Drawing on recent conversations with owners, brokers, tenants, architects, engineers, and contractors, Chris Ressa challenges the prevailing narrative that 2026 will simply mirror a solid 2025. Instead, he outlines why the year ahead could outperform expectations across leasing, rents, and long-term fundamentals.
At the center of his thesis is sustained leasing velocity. Across categories and markets, tenant demand continues to outpace available supply, even as headlines focus on isolated retailer struggles. Chris explains why those failures do not define the health of retail — and why today’s winners are expanding with conviction.
He also breaks down why early-2025 disruptions, including an unusually high number of store closures and tariff uncertainty, are unlikely to repeat in 2026. With bankruptcies moderating, new construction still muted, and many signed tenants yet to open, available retail space is tightening further.
Layer in a U.S. consumer expected to gain discretionary spending power, and the result is a collision of forces that may finally unlock meaningful rent growth. Chris argues this is the early innings of a retail pricing cycle — and 2026 could be the year it clearly shows up.
What You’ll Hear00:12 – Welcome to 2026
Chris sets the stage with early sentiment from across the retail real estate industry.
01:58 – Leasing Velocity Tells the Real Story
Demand for retail space continues to outpace supply across most categories.
03:28 – Winners, Losers, and Retail Reality
Why retailer failures don’t equal a weak retail sector.
05:32 – Bankruptcies, Tariffs, and a Reset Market
How 2025 disruptions slowed leasing—and why 2026 looks different.
07:26 – The Consumer Comes Back Into Focus
Rising discretionary income and its impact on physical retail demand.
08:18 – Rent Growth vs. Landlord CapEx
How economics are shifting tenant and landlord cost burdens.
09:03 – The Early Innings of a Pricing Cycle
Why multiple forces are colliding to push rents higher.
10:55 – What’s Next for Retail Retold
Fresh off the energy of ICSC New York, Chris Ressa and Carly Iacono unpack what really matters in retail real estate right now and where the market is headed into 2026. In this episode of What’s in Store, they move past surface-level headlines and dig into the conversations happening behind closed doors with investors, landlords, and retailers alike. pasted
One clear theme emerged: certainty has returned, but the conversation has shifted. Cap rates are no longer viewed solely through the lens of interest rates. Instead, investors are pricing risk based on tenant quality, sector fundamentals, and long-term demand. At the same time, retailers are facing a supply crunch, with limited availability in top shopping centers constraining expansion, even as new stores continue to outperform expectations.
Chris and Carly also explore the rising demand for value net lease deals, the growing challenge of maintaining long weighted average lease terms, and why long-term credit tenants have become harder to find. Perhaps most encouraging, retailers are reinvesting heavily in their physical stores, signaling renewed confidence in brick-and-mortar retail.
Taken together, these insights paint a clear picture: retail is not just resilient. It is evolving with discipline, data, and conviction.
What You’ll Hear00:07 – Setting the Stage at ICSC New York
Chris and Carly explain why ICSC remains the most important deal-making forum in retail real estate.
02:30 – Why Cap Rates Are No Longer Just About Interest Rates
The discussion shifts to how investors are pricing risk by sector and tenant quality.
10:25 – Liquidity Returns and What It Means for Deal Volume
Improving credit markets are quietly unlocking stalled transactions.
12:07 – The Real Supply Constraint Retailers Are Facing
Retailers want to grow, but many cannot find space in their top target centers.
15:51 – Value Net Lease Becomes a Hot Asset Class
Short-term and below-market leases attract intense buyer demand.
25:28 – New Stores Are Outperforming Expectations
Retailers report new locations beating pro forma sales projections.
31:39 – The Challenge of Long-Term Credit and Lease Duration
Maintaining portfolio WALT is getting harder as long-term deals become scarce.
34:23 – Retailers Reinvest in the In-Store Experience
Capital is flowing back into physical stores through remodels and upgrades.
37:05 – The Surprising Silence Around AI and Labor
Two dominant topics from past conferences barely register this year.
38:34 – Why These Trends Point Toward 2026
Chris and Carly explain why these themes are just the beginning.
Flashing back to December 2023, this Retail Retold replay proves just how relevant the details still are. In this episode, host Chris Ressa breaks down one of the most underestimated risks in retail real estate leasing: possession contingencies. A lease can be fully executed, a delivery date locked in, and everyone feeling good, until the existing tenant does not leave. Without a possession contingency in place, landlords can find themselves caught between two tenants, facing delays, legal exposure, and a deal that suddenly starts to unravel. It is a reminder that possession is not a technicality; it is everything.
Chris also zooms out to talk about something just as critical to long-term success: skill-building. Every year, he commits to sharpening a new skill, often outside of traditional business training. These disciplines, ones that demand focus, patience, and attention to detail, end up strengthening how deals get done, decisions get made, and pressure gets handled.
This quick-hitter episode is a flashback with staying power. The lesson is simple: protect your deals with the right clauses, and protect your edge by continuously leveling up. Because in retail real estate, the smallest details often decide the biggest outcomes.
What You’ll Hear in This Replay00:00 – Flashing Back to December 2023
Chris reflects on the timing of the episode and why these lessons still matter today.
02:15 – The Habit of Building New Skills
Why intentional skill development — inside and outside of business — sharpens long-term performance.
04:20 – Learning Precision Outside the Office
How mastering a detail-oriented hobby improves focus and decision-making in high-pressure work.
09:55 – What Is a Possession Contingency?
A clear, practical explanation of the clause many deals overlook.
12:10 – When a Tenant Does Not Leave
The real risk of expired leases, holdovers, and delayed possession.
14:30 – Protecting Delivery Dates and Deals
How possession contingencies create clarity and protect all parties.
15:30 – Final Takeaways
Why better documents and better operators go hand in hand.
In this episode of Retail Retold, host Chris Ressa gets inside the mind of Lÿden Foust, the CEO and founder of Spatial.ai—the company turning real human behavior into a map retailers can actually use. If you think location strategy is still built on income bands and census data, this conversation flips that idea on its head.
Foust explains how Persona Live Segmentation blends social signals, credit card trends, demographic nuance, and movement patterns to reveal who your customer really is—and where they live in the physical world. It’s the engine behind brands like Patagonia and Lululemon choosing sites, growing market share, and targeting high-value segments others miss.
Ressa and Foust dig into the elephant in the room: AI isn’t spatial (yet). The technology can write decks and draw buildings, but it can’t feel the difference between half a mile and a trade area boundary. The fundamentals still matter—and boots on the ground beat bots on the map.
The two break down how value just overtook quality in consumer preference, why Dutch Bros is winning by going after unexpected segments, and how landlords can use psychographics to land better tenants and build smarter merchandising mixes.
What You’ll Hear:
Chapters
00:00 — Who Is Lÿden Foust
Chris introduces Lÿden and the origin story of Spatial.ai’s Persona Live Segmentation platform.
01:13 — Why Psychographics Matter
Lÿden explains why real behavior beats demographics when retailers choose locations.
02:15 — The Data Behind Persona Segmentation
Spatial.ai blends social signals, spending patterns, demographics, and movement to map customer segments.
06:38 — Retailers Using It Today
Patagonia, Lululemon, and others use psychographics to find top customer groups and guide site selection.
10:58 — AI’s Limits in Real Estate
Chris and Lÿden debate why AI isn’t spatial yet—and why human context still wins for site selection.
12:41 — Mobile Data: Good and Bad
They break down what mobile visitation data reveals, and where it misrepresents certain customer groups.
14:27 — Building Trade Areas Smarter
Lÿden explains how mobile data reshaped trade area analysis and unlocked competitive insight.
18:40 — Value Now Beats Quality
They explore why “value” just surpassed “quality” in consumer preference and what retailers should do about it.
19:27 — Dutch Bros Case Study
Lÿden highlights how Dutch Bros grew share by serving unexpected segments with the right price-value tradeoff.
24:37 — Psychographics for Landlords
Chris asks how property owners can use segmentation to land anchor tenants and build stronger merchandising mixes.
The kids’ entertainment world is exploding, and in this episode of Retail Retold, host Chris Ressa dives straight into the center of that momentum with Melissa Tinsley, Director of Real Estate at Unleashed Brands. Melissa pulls back the curtain on the powerhouse portfolio behind Urban Air, Sylvan Learning, The Little Gym, and Water Wings, revealing how Unleashed is rapidly shaping the future of experiential retail.
She shares why she left Tropical Smoothie Café after eight years to tackle the high-stakes, high-complexity world of big-box entertainment real estate—where ceiling heights, engineering gymnastics, waivers, zoning battles, and multimillion-dollar buildout decisions turn every Urban Air deal into an adrenaline-fueled puzzle.
Melissa breaks down Urban Air’s evolution from trampoline park to full-scale adventure park, how that shift has changed the competitive landscape, and why the brand is aggressively expanding across the West Coast, East Coast, and major suburban hubs.
She also explains why Urban Air is becoming a go-to solution for vacant big boxes—drawing families, driving cross-shopping, and creating the kind of sticky traffic landlords crave.
Packed with candid insights on franchisee growth, site criteria, and real estate challenges, this episode gives a powerful look at how Unleashed Brands is building the next generation of family-focused retail experiences.
What You’ll Hear:
Chapters
00:00 – Meet Melissa Tinsley
Melissa shares her background and move to Unleashed Brands.
01:26 – Inside the Unleashed Brands Portfolio
How Urban Air, Sylvan, The Little Gym, and Water Wings fit together.
03:16 – The Reality of Big-Box Entertainment Deals
Ceiling heights, engineering challenges, waivers, and zoning.
04:55 – From Trampoline Park to Adventure Park
How Urban Air is evolving and outpacing competitors.
07:28 – Franchise Growth + Who’s Investing
The types of franchisees fueling expansion across the country.
09:31 – Markets on Fire
Where Urban Air is growing fastest—especially CA, NY, and NJ.
11:13 – Filling Big Box Vacancies
Why Urban Air is becoming a prime replacement for dark anchors.
12:18 – What Landlords Need to Know
Co-tenant reactions, parking concerns, and why Urban Air drives powerful family traffic.
Which of these trends will reshape brands the most?
This week on What’s in Store, Karly Iacono and Chris Ressa break down the power moves happening across luxury retail—and why the category is rewriting the rules of real estate.
They open with a jolt: luxury brands are no longer just leasing the world’s most iconic corners… they’re buying them outright. Prada dropping $835 million on Fifth Avenue and LVMH investing billions globally isn’t about rent—it’s about dominance. Karly and Chris argue these brands aren’t reacting to the market, they’re locking in control of their physical identity for decades to come. Flagships aren’t stores anymore—they’re statements.
They then dive into the comeback of experiential flagships. After a decade obsessed with e-commerce scaling, luxury is doubling down on high-touch experiences: concierge service, curated appointments, even food and beverage. The hosts make it clear—luxury isn’t selling products, it’s selling a feeling you can’t stream.
Next, they explore the suburban shift. With affluent consumers spending more time at home, luxury is quietly testing high-income suburbs, balancing exclusivity with convenience without diluting the brand.
Finally, Karly and Chris tackle the booming world of resale luxury. Once a fringe online niche, authenticated resale is taking Class A corners—and becoming a gateway for the next generation of luxury shoppers.
What You’ll Hear:
Chapters
00:00 — The Luxury Land Grab
Karly and Chris break down why luxury brands are buying their real estate and making billion-dollar bets on iconic flagship locations.
08:50 — The Flagship Comeback
The hosts explore why experiential, high-identity flagship stores are surging back as luxury brands reassert the power of physical retail.
16:15 — Luxury Moves to the Suburbs
They discuss the shift toward affluent suburban markets as luxury brands meet high-income consumers closer to home.
22:20 — The Rise of Resale Luxury
Karly and Chris unpack how authenticated resale is becoming a major gateway to luxury—and why resellers are taking prime corners once reserved for the biggest brands.
This episode moves fast — because Rob Gresham’s career has never slowed down. Chris Ressa sits with the restaurant veteran who went from washing dishes at 15 to helping architect the early operational engine behind CAVA’s meteoric growth from zero to 80 stores.
Rob shares the wild ride: running a steakhouse kitchen as a teenager, getting recruited by Chipotle to fix troubled locations, learning the business side under industry giants, and joining CAVA before it was a household name — building systems, opening markets, and helping scale a brand that eventually went public.
Then the pandemic hit. Consulting work vanished. His son was bored. So Rob turned a homeschool project into something much bigger: a business plan for a scratch-made, allergen-conscious chicken concept. When it came time to name it, Rob’s son delivered the winner: Isaac’s — inspired by Isaac Newton, who invented calculus and discovered gravity while quarantined during the plague. “He changed the world in quarantine,” his son said. “You created a restaurant. Name it Isaac’s.”
Today, Isaac’s Poultry Market has two booming locations, a cult following, and the DNA of a future fast-casual standout. Rob’s story is momentum, grit, and timing — the kind Retail Retold was made for.
What You’ll Hear:
Chapters
00:00 — From Dish Pit to Drive
How a 15-year-old dishwasher discovered his path — and his ambition — in the restaurant world.
02:00 — Learning the Business Beyond the Kitchen
The mentors and moments that pushed Rob from chef to full-scale operator.
04:45 — Chipotle, CAVA, and Fixing What’s Broken
Rob’s early role in stabilizing stores and helping build CAVA’s operational backbone from day zero.
06:30 — Building a Rocketship Brand
Cross-country construction sprints, tiny founding teams, and opening stores at breakneck speed.
09:00 — The Decision to Walk Away
Why Rob left CAVA at its peak and refused to transition into an office role.
13:00 — Pandemic Curveball → Entrepreneurial Breakthrough
How a business-plan lesson with his son turned into the foundation for Isaac’s Poultry Market.
14:00 — Naming Isaac’s: A Quarantine Stroke of Genius
The Isaac Newton inspiration that became a bold, meaningful brand name.
17:00 — Building Location #1 in a Broken Supply Chain
Construction chaos, blown budgets, and the reality of opening a restaurant during COVID.
22:00 — The Battle for Location #2
Inside the seven-month negotiation to secure exclusives and protect the emerging brand.
29:00 — The Future of Isaac’s Poultry Market
How Rob is approaching growth, second-gen spaces, and the next wave of opportunity.
What Does It Take to Scale from Two Gyms to 100+ Stores Across America?
n this episode of Retail Retold, Chris Ressa welcomes franchise powerhouse Kal Gullipali — the man who turned two Orange Theory studios into a 100-unit empire spanning Marco’s Pizza, Dave’s Hot Chicken, European Wax Center, and more. From Wall Street to wellness centers to hot chicken, Kal’s story is a masterclass in bold moves, smart capital, and relentless growth.
Kal reveals how selling his first franchise lit the spark for scale — and how COVID became the ultimate wake-up call to diversify. Today, his group operates across multiple states, building new stores, buying portfolios, and driving more than $35–40 million in annual growth. He breaks down the numbers, the strategy, and the mindset it takes to play at this level.
This episode dives into what it really takes to win in franchising: sharp site selection, patient capital, and powerful partnerships. Kal also calls out a coming shift in the fast-casual world — the return of true customer service — as brands rediscover that speed means nothing without hospitality.
What You’ll Hear:
Chapters
00:00 – Meet Kal Gullipali
From Wall Street to Main Street — how a former Merrill Lynch analyst became a franchise powerhouse.
02:00 – The First Franchise Bet
Why Kal’s first leap into Orange Theory Fitness changed everything.
04:00 – From Two Gyms to a Hundred Units
The mindset, capital, and partnerships behind explosive growth.
06:00 – Lessons from Selling and Scaling
How selling early wins funded a smarter, more diversified empire.
07:45 – Enter the Pizza and Hot Chicken Game
Why COVID turned Kal into a believer in delivery-driven, resilient brands.
09:30 – Building vs. Buying
The strategy behind mixing acquisitions with ground-up new builds.
10:30 – Why Dave’s Hot Chicken Took Off
High AUVs, hot branding, and a cult following—Kal breaks down the magic formula.
13:00 – The Numbers Behind the Empire
A candid look at performance, diversification, and what drives profitability.
15:00 – The Power of People and Process
Inside Kal’s shared-services model and how he scales culture across brands.
18:00 – The Franchise Trend No One’s Talking About
Why customer service—not tech—will define the next era of QSR success.
What happens when two of retail’s sharpest minds go head-to-head on the data behind the industry’s biggest shifts? You get this week’s episode of Retail Retold, where Chris Ressa sits down (again!) with Ethan Chernofsky, Chief Marketing Officer at Placer.ai.
Ethan brings the receipts—billions of data points from Placer.ai’s location analytics—to unpack five retail trends that are redefining the way consumers shop and how retailers win. From Chili’s comeback and Trader Joe’s cult following to the rise of “dark stores” and the urbanization of suburbia, Chris and Ethan debate what’s driving foot traffic, loyalty, and value creation across retail. It’s part data, part strategy, and all energy.
What You’ll Hear:
Chapters
00:00 – Welcome Back, Ethan Chernofsky
Chris and Ethan kick things off with their signature energy — a quick catch-up, a look inside Placer.ai’s marketing team, and how data storytelling is changing the game.
02:30 – Trend #1: Know Your Reason for Being
The biggest driver of retail success today? Focus. Ethan explains how Chili’s, Trader Joe’s, and Sprouts are winning by doubling down on what they do best.
08:30 – Trend #2: The Battle for the Basket
Loyalty is up — but so is cross-visitation. Chris and Ethan break down why shoppers are visiting more stores and what it means for retailers fighting for “share of list.”
13:15 – Trend #3: The Middle Market Mystery
Can the “middle” of retail survive? The duo debates whether flexibility, not price point, is the secret weapon for retailers stuck between luxury and value.
18:10 – Trend #4: The Store as a Platform
From buy-online-pickup-in-store to dark stores and retail media, Ethan unpacks how brick-and-mortar is becoming retail’s most powerful ecosystem.
22:45 – Trend #5: The Urbanization of the Suburbs
The suburbs are stealing the spotlight. Ethan and Chris discuss how urban concepts are moving into suburban centers—and what that means for open-air retail.
29:00 – Final Thoughts: The Future of Retail is Real
Chris and Ethan wrap it up with what’s next for data, design, and human experience in the physical retail world.
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