Risk Parity Radio

In this episode we answer emails from Anderson, Brad, David, Ana and Christy.  We discuss I-bonds vs. TIPS, John Kimble, Portfolio Builder, Steve Van Metre and new-fangled ETFs, and Uncle Frank's advice to newer investors.  Then we finish up with our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio

Additional Links:

I-Bonds vs. TIPS Article:  I Bonds vs. TIPS: What’s the best bet for inflation protection? | Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (tipswatch.com)

I-Bonds Episode:  Podcast Episode #93 | Risk Parity Radio

One of the TIPS Episodes:  Podcast Episode #78| Risk Parity Radio

Portfolio Builder Sensational Video From April 2020:  Greatest Stock Crash In History Ahead Build This Portfolio ASAP - YouTube

Meb Faber Podcast Re Levered Risk-Parity Style Portfolios (re-labelled "Return Stacking"):  Episode #368: Rodrigo Gordillo & Corey Hoffstein, “You Now Get To Have Your Beta Cake While Eating Your Alpha Too" - Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog

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In this episode we, ahem, "address" a recent attempt by Morningstar to predict the future returns and performance of markets for the next 30-40 years using a bag of crystal balls and their conclusions about safe withdrawal rates.

Links: 

The Report in Question:  State-of-retirement-income.pdf (morningstar.com)

The Data They Should Have Been Using:  Diversification_Landscape_033021v2.pdf (morningstar.com)

The Track Record Of These Methodologies According To Morningstar:  Your Forecasts for Stock and Bond Returns  (2011)| Morningstar

And a nice tax advisor:  The FI Tax Guy (Sean Mullaney)– Tax, Financial Independence, and Fun

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In this email we answer emails from John, Gary, Chuck, PJ, Dave and Brandon.  We discuss crystal-ball-laden  catastrophes, modern alternative asset fund opportunities, help with the Portfolio Visualizer calculators, my recent absence, my lack of written output, Roth 401k and IRAs.

Links:

Big Ern Sequence of Return Series #34 and Comments:  Using Gold as a Hedge against Sequence Risk – SWR Series Part 34 – Early Retirement Now

Episode 40 re Gold:  Podcast #40 | Risk Parity Radio

Episode 70 re CAPEd Crystal Balls:  Podcast #70 | Risk Parity Radio

Gary's Links to Private Alternative Asset Funds:  Hedonova and https://orthogonalglobal.com

Chuck's Older Fund Identifications for Portfolio Visualizer:  . NAESX - Small Cap;  VFITX - Intermediate Treasuries;  VUSTX - Long Term Treasuries; VFINX - S&P 500; and ^gold - Gold. Sector Funds:  FSUTX - Utilities; FSRBX - Banks; FIDSX - Financial Services; FRESX - REIT; FSPHX - Healthcare; FIREX - Intl. Reit; FSDPX - Materials; FCYIX - Industrials; FSENX -Energy; FDFAX - Consumer Staples; FSCPX - Consumer Discretionary; and FSPTX - Tech.

Portfolio Visualizer Asset Backtester:   Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

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In this episode we answer a trifecta of questions from Christopher and emails from JonB and Value Stock Geek.  We discuss accumulation, dollar-cost averaging, a Bridgewater paper, calculating withdrawals from the sample portfolios and the Weird Portfolio.

And then we go to our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio

And then we crawl back in the morass of our NFT experiment.

Additional links:

Bridgewater Paper from Episode 49:  2009.12 AW Info Pack.doc (granicus.com)

Kitces Four Phases of Investing Article:  The Four Phases Of Saving For Retirement (kitces.com)

Bogleheads Tool and Data:  Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project] - Page 25 - Bogleheads.org

Value Stock Geek Portfolio:  The Weird Portfolio. How To Avoid Bubbles, Limit Drawdowns… | by Value Stock Geek

Opensea Polygon Transfer Instructions/Links:  How do I find my funds on Polygon? – OpenSea

EconoMe Conference:  EconoMe Conference - Nov 13th & 14th, 2021

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In this episode we answer emails from Paul, Mike, Brett, Yarrow and Peter.  We discuss a Levered All Seasons Portfolio, an investment in BIP, closed-end funds and issues with GAA.  We also address Peter's issues with trying to buy a Risk Parity Radio NFT.

Links: 

Optimized Portfolio Article about the Levered All Seasons:  Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio Review, ETF's, & Leverage (optimizedportfolio.com)

Paul's Levered All Weather M1 Pie:  Paul's Portfolio | M1 Finance

Correlation Analysis for BIP:   Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)

Golden Ratio Portfolio using BIP:  BGR Portfolio With BIP (portfoliovisualizer.com)

Correlation Analysis for GAA Components:  Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)

GAA vs. Golden Butterfly and Golden Ratio:  https://tinyurl.com/y4fvrfmp

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In this episode we start by answering emails from Melanie, David, Jeffrey and Richard about Schwab ETF alternatives, Mary Mary, the financial podcasts I listen to, sector and other stock funds in the context of the Holy Grail and Macro-Allocation Principles, leveraged bond funds and the whys of the bonds we use in the sample portfolios.  One additional excellent personal finance podcast I neglected to mention is The Earn & Invest Podcast (earnandinvest.com) with Doc G.

Then we roll out some Risk Parity Radio NFTs (non-fungible tokens), which you may acquire through the support page of the website at Support | Risk Parity Radio or here: Risk Parity Radio - Collection | OpenSeas

After that we go to our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio

Additional links:

Flight to Safety Research Paper About Treasuries:  delivery.php (ssrn.com)

Our Three Principles of Portfolio Construction:  Episode 7 | Risk Parity Radio

REIT Funds Episodes:  Episode 19 | Risk Parity Radio and Episode 21 | Risk Parity Radio

Utilities Funds Episode:  Episode 27 | Risk Parity Radio

Preferred Shares Fund Episode:  Episode 9 | Risk Parity Radio

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In this episode we answer emails from Visitor 3050, Daniel, Chet, Jack, Jeff and Marc.  We discuss risk-reward metrics and where to find them, corrections to modelling SWAN, using asset class analyzers, "bracketed rebalancing", adding gold to a portfolio and the bond breakdown of NTSX.

Links:

Portfoliocharts Risk and Return Analyzer:  RISK AND RETURN – Portfolio Charts

Daniel's Portfoliovisualizer Analysis of SWAN:  SWAN Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

SWAN compared with a 45/80 portfolio:  Revised SWAN Backtest Portfolio (portfoliovisualizer.com)

Optimized Portfolio Article re SWAN:  SWAN - A Review of the Amplify BlackSwan ETF for Downturns (optimizedportfolio.com)

Optimized Portfolio Article re NTSX:  NTSX ETF Review - WisdomTree U.S. Efficient Core ETF (90/60) (optimizedportfolio.com)

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In this episode we answer emails from EJ, J Allen, Paul, Hoarseman, Larry and Anderson.  We discuss bitcoin funds, the Callan Periodic Table, transitioning your portfolio to decumulation, I-bonds, a momentum strategy and becoming a financial planner/advisor.

Links: 

Updated Kiplinger article re (now 12) crypto-currency funds: 12 Bitcoin ETFs and Cryptocurrency Funds You Should Know | Kiplinger

Larry's Link Re Momentum Strategy:  Accelerating Dual Momentum Investing – engineered portfolio

Millionaires Unveiled Podcast Episode featuring a Financial Advisor:  208: Net Worth of 5M – 2.5M in Tesla Stock (millionairesunveiled.com)

Money Guy Episode re Choosing Financial Advisors:  How and When to Hire a Financial Advisor! - YouTube

Michael Kitces Podcast For Financial Advisors:  About the Financial Advisor Success Podcast by Michael Kitces

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In this episode we answer emails from Julie, Pat, Craig, Chris and Matt, in which we discuss the Retirement Spending Calculator at Portfoliocharts, leveraged portfolios and ETFs in taxable and tax-protected accounts, crypto-fund alternatives, risk parity research and articles, and asset location in Roth vs. taxable. 

And THEN And then we go to our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio

Additional Links:

The Retirement Spending Calculator Tutorial is here (added November 2):   Retirement Spending Calculator Tutorial - YouTube

Retirement Spending Calculator:  RETIREMENT SPENDING – Portfolio Charts

ChooseFI/M1 Experimental Risk Parity Portfolio:   M1 Pies: Manage and Optimize Your Portfolio Like a Pro (choosefi.com)

Kiplinger Article Re 11 Crypto-Funds:  11 Bitcoin ETFs and Cryptocurrency Funds You Should Know | Kiplinger

Episode 5 and Links to Articles:  Podcast 5| Risk Parity Radio

Episode 7 and Links to Videos:  Podcast 7| Risk Parity Radio

AQR Risk Parity Article:  Understanding Risk Parity (aqr.com)

Bridgewater Site:  Research & Insights — Bridgewater Associates

Bonus Panagora Article from earlier episode:  PanAgora-Risk-Parity-Portfolios-Efficient-Portfolios-Through-True-Diversification.pdf

Episode 93 re I-bonds:  Podcast 93 | Risk Parity Radio

Treasury Direct Website:  Individual - Buying Series I Savings Bonds (treasurydirect.gov)

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In this episode we address the seemingly intentional friction imposed by the financial services industry preventing us from moving our own retirement accounts around.  Then we tackle emails from Jay, Andrew, Dave (x2) and Justin about Vanguard funds, Mel Brooks and quadruple-witching days, cockroach portfolios and the bias-variance dilemma, and modelling low-volatility funds.

Partial list of useful Vanguard ETFs:

Total Market:  VTI
Large Cap Growth Stocks:  VUG
Small Cap Value Stocks:  VIOV or VBR
REITs:  VNQ and VNQI (International)
Utilities:  VPU
Long-Term Treasury Bonds:  VGLT and EDV (extended duration)
Intermediate-Term Treasury Bonds:  VGIT
Short-Term Treasury Bonds:  VGSH

There do not appear to be any good Vanguard fund options for investing in gold, commodities, preferred shares, volatility, crypto-currency-related assets or leveraged stock and bond funds.

Morningstar Long View Podcast with Rick Bookstaber:  Rick Bookstaber: Avoiding Complexity Is 'Risk 101' | Morningstar

Analysis of commodities fund COM:  Podcast 99| Risk Parity Radio

Risk vs. Uncertainty Discussions:  Podcast 64| Risk Parity Radio and Podcast 66| Risk Parity Radio

The Bias-Variance Dilemma:  Podcast 49| Risk Parity Radio

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