Risk Parity Radio

In this episode we answer questions from Joel, Javen, Bradley and Brian.  We discuss leveraged portfolios, GOLD, the BTAL episode, accumulation portfolios, brokerage comparisons and how we calculate the returns on our sample portfolios.

And THEN And then we go to our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio

Additional links:

Portfolio Visualizer Analysis of Joel's Portfolio:  Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

Bonus "Not an Improvement" Video Clip from Joel:  YARN | that's not an improvement | Homestar Runner Strong Bad Trogdor | Video clips by quotes | f27b57a5 | 紗

Portfolio Charts Portfolios Page:  Portfolios – Portfolio Charts

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In this episode we analyze the Amplify Black Swan Growth & Treasury Core ETF, ticker symbol SWAN, using David Stein's Ten Questions to Master Investing, which are:

1.  What is it?
2.  Is it an investment, a speculation, or a gamble?
3.  What is the upside?
4.  What is the downside?
5.  Who is on the other side of the trade?
6.  What is the investment vehicle?
7.  What does it take to be successful?
8.  Who is getting a cut?
9.  How does it impact your portfolio?
10.  Should you invest?

Additional Links:

SWAN FAQ:  Amplify_SWAN_faqs.pdf (amplifyetfs.com)

SWAN Prospectus:  https://www.amplifyetfs.com/Data/Sites/6/media/docs/swanpartf.htm

SWAN Review Article:  SWAN - A Review of the Amplify BlackSwan ETF for Downturns (optimizedportfolio.com)

Analysis of Synthetic SWAN vs Levered Golden Ratio Portfolio:  Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

Analysis of Synthetic SWAN vs. SWAN-based Levered All Weather Portfolio:  Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

The NTSX Episodes are Episodes 59 and 61.

RPR Sample Portfolios:  Portfolios Page | Risk Parity Radio

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In this episode we answer emails from Bob, Kelly, Jack and David.  We discuss long term treasury bond and STRIPS funds, Iowa and the Field of Dreams, a Ray Dalio article about bonds from March and a missing link.

And then we go to our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio

Ray Dalio Article Link:  Why in the World Would You Own Bonds When... (bridgewater.com)

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In this episode we answer emails from Ralph, Justin, Rikki, Dan, Anderson and Phil.  We address, dividends, bonds vs. bond funds, portfolio visualizer vs. portfolio charts, a PIMCO bonds correlations paper, ideas from Dan, and the Hedgefundie portfolio (again).

Links:

The PIMCO Stock-Bond Correlation Paper:  displaydocument.ashx (pimco.fi)

Dan's Blog:  KEEP INVESTING $IMPLE, $TUPID! | But not simpler than it needs to be! (keepinvestingsimplestupid.com)

Experimental Leverage Risk-Parity Portfolio At ChooseFI/M1:  M1 Pies: Manage and Optimize Your Portfolio Like a Pro (choosefi.com)

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In this episode we answer four emails from Dave, or Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate if you prefer.  We address foolish consistencies and conflicts of interest, the reason we have sample portfolios, interest rate hysteria and Vanguard's VPGDX fund. 

And then we go to our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio

Additional Links:

Contents of VPGDX:  VPGDX - Vanguard Managed Allocation Fund | Vanguard

Analysis if VPGDX vs. Golden Butterfly vs. Golden Ratio:  Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

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In this episode we analyze the AGFiQ  US Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund ETF, ticker symbol BTAL, using David Stein's Ten Questions to Master Investing, which are:

1.  What is it?
2.  Is it an investment, a speculation, or a gamble?
3.  What is the upside?
4.  What is the downside?
5.  Who is on the other side of the trade?
6.  What is the investment vehicle?
7.  What does it take to be successful?
8.  Who is getting a cut?
9.  How does it impact your portfolio?
10.  Should you invest?

This fund analysis was suggested/requested by listener Javen S.

Additional Links:

BTAL Fact Sheet:  AGFiQ U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund - - Fund Profile

BTAL Prospectus:  AGFiQ Annual Prospectus

BTAL Correlation Matrix:  Asset Correlations BTAL (portfoliovisualizer.com)

Backtest Golden Butterfly Portfolio Example:  Backtest GB Portfolios (portfoliovisualizer.com)

Backtest Golden Ratio Portfolio Example:  Backtest GR Portfolios (portfoliovisualizer.com)

Backtest Leveraged Portfolios Examples: 
tinyurl.com/8t62zjhk

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In this episode we answer questions from Greg, David, Chris, Rikki and John-Michael.  We discuss the "Weird Portfolio", do a Vanguard Life-Strategy Funds comparison, using a risk-parity style portfolio for intermediate needs, alternative allocations and related tax issues, treasury bonds, emerging markets funds and tax-advantaged transactions, and the Experimental Risk Parity Lever portfolio at ChooseFI and M1.

Links:

Weird Portfolio Article:  The Weird Portfolio. How To Avoid Bubbles, Limit Drawdowns… | by Value Stock Geek

Weird Portfolio vs. Golden Butterfly vs. Golden Ratio comparison:  Backtest Weird Portfolio

Vanguard Moderate Life Strategy vs. Golden Butterfly vs. Golden Ratio comparison:  Backtest Vanguard Moderate Life Strategy

Episode 27 re Utility Funds:  Podcast 27

Episode 9 re Preferred Shares Fund PFF:  Podcast 9

Episode 31 re RPAR:  Podcast 31

Optimized Portfolios Article re Leveraged ETFs:  What Is a Leveraged ETF . . .?

Experimental Risk Parity Lever M1 Pie:  https://www.choosefi.com/vasquez-exp-risk-parity

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In this episode we answer emails from Bob, Zahir, Melanie, Pat and Rob.  We address sound effects, strange voices, analyzing leveraged investments, test-driving risk-parity portfolios, selling bad investments in individual stocks, small-cap value stock investments over time and balancing safe/perpetual withdrawal rates vs. projected drawdowns.

Then we go to our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio

Additional Links:

Episode 111 Notes Page:  Podcast Episode 111 | Risk Parity Radio

Portfolio Charts Golden Butterfly Analysis:  Golden Butterfly – Portfolio Charts

Risk Parity Ultimate Restructuring Episode And Analysis Notes:  Podcast Episode 109 | Risk Parity Radio

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In this episode we answer emails from Keith, Jeffrey, Evan, Brendan, Kelly and Paul.  We address Kelly Criterion and other risk/reward considerations (Sharpe and Sortino ratios), crystal balls, the "Possibility Effect" cognitive bias and a base-rate analysis of the Golden Butterfly portfolio, issues with IVOL, trading ETFs at Vanguard, the perpetual withdrawal rate, expense ratios and bucket strategies, basic retirement considerations, issues with QYLD  and an examination of Big Ern's leveraged retirement portfolios.

It's another barn burner!   Real Wrath of God type stuff!

Links:

Kelly Criterion article:  Leverage and The Line Between Aggressive and Crazy (rhsfinancial.com)

Golden Butterfly analysis with Heat Map:  Golden Butterfly – Portfolio Charts

Episode 89 re QYLD:  Podcast Episode 89 | Risk Parity Radio

Big Ern Article Re Leveraged Portfolios:  Lower risk through leverage – Early Retirement Now

Big Ern Article Re Gold In Portfolios:  Using Gold as a Hedge against Sequence Risk – SWR Series Part 34 – Early Retirement Now

Episode 40 Re Gold:  Podcast Episode 40 | Risk Parity Radio

Portfolio Analysis Comparison Of Big Ern Leveraged Portfolio With And Without Gold:  Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

The SWAN ETF:  SWAN - BlackSwan Growth & Treasury Core ETF - Amplify ETFs

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In this all-email extravaganza we address emails from Spencer, Nick, Bob, Randy, Falco, Kevin, and Daniel.  We address the Hedgefundie Portfolio (again!), an article about a 50/50 stock/10-year treasury reference portfolio, BigErn's research about gold (again!), CAPEd and other common crystal balls and the erroneously implied mean-reversion assumption, gold etfs, using cash as a short-term risk-reducer, implementing the Golden Ratio in the Netherlands, a missing link from Episode 7 and implementing the Risk Parity Ultimate at M1 finance.  Whew!

And we are still a month behind on the emails.

Referenced links:

Episode 82 re the Hedgefundie portfolio:  Podcast Episode 82| Risk Parity Radio

Lengthy Hedgefundie Portfolio Article:  HEDGEFUNDIE's Excellent Adventure (UPRO/TMF) - A Summary (optimizedportfolio.com)

Article re 50/50 S&P/10-year treasury reference portfolio:  The Risk Parity Gorilla In The Room | AlphaWeek (alpha-week.com)

50/50 S&P/10-year treasury vs. Golden Ratio backtest:  Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

BigErn Gold Article:  Using Gold as a Hedge against Sequence Risk – SWR Series Part 34 – Early Retirement Now

Episode 40 re Gold:  Podcast Episode 40 | Risk Parity Radio

Dragon Portfolio Paper with 100-year Analysis:  https://artemiscm.docsend.com/view/taygkbn

Next Level Life You Tube Video on Gold:  Why Are Gold Portfolios So Dependable? - YouTube

Episode 70 re CAPE Ratio:  Podcast Episode 70 | Risk Parity Radio

Ben Felix Episode re CAPE Ratio:  RR #146 - Do Expected Stock Returns Wear a CAPE? - YouTube

Ben Felix Episode re Expected Returns:  RR #151 - Professor Brad Cornell: A Skeptic’s Look at the Cross Section of Expected Returns - YouTube

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