RJ Bell's Dream Preview

By Pregame.comSports Fantasy Sports

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64 min
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RJ Bell's Dream Preview episodes

October 08, 2025 CFB Week 7 Preview + Best Bets !!
Griffin Warner and Lonte Smith talk college football betting for Week 7. Best bets as always.
(0:06 - 0:30, Speaker 3) The show opened with a fierce call to action: “Offense, play fast. Defense, swarm and tackle.” The repeated demand to “Leave no doubt tonight!” captured urgency and confidence, setting a competitive tone. (0:30 - 2:20, Griffin Warner and Lonte Smith) Griffin Warner introduced the Week 7 betting breakdown, starting with Texas’ collapse. Lonte Smith said, “They got Sark and the offensive line coach arguing,” pointing to dysfunction and lack of rhythm despite defensive effort. He warned that in the SEC, “You can’t bury yourself in tears—you’ve got to get back up.” (2:20 - 4:49) Reviewing bets, Smith admitted his UAB pick failed because “they were down six starters on defense.” Warner added that early bets can miss late-week injury news, stressing patience in timing wagers. (4:50 - 11:40, Oklahoma vs. Texas) Warner previewed the Red River rivalry, noting Texas dropped from -3.5 to -1. Smith said, “It’s not all Arch, but he’s the quarterback,” critiquing poor line play and imbalance. With OU’s Mateer possibly returning, he said, “With a healthy Mateer, OU minus one and a half.” Expecting strong defenses, Smith favored the under 43: “Both teams can’t run the football.” Warner, a Texas fan, recalled painful past matchups and admitted, “I’ve been afraid of this game all year.” (12:53 - 15:51, Oregon vs. Indiana) Smith said Indiana struggles on the road, contrasting with Oregon’s “championship-caliber” balance. He called Oregon’s Rose Bowl loss “an outlier” and predicted their athleticism and QB mobility would overwhelm Indiana. (17:47 - 23:11, Arizona State vs. Utah) Utah was a 5.5-point home favorite. Smith highlighted dominance up front: “Their trenches are some of the best in the country.” Arizona State ranked poorly in rushing defense and third-down success, while Utah was 4th in rush success rate. He predicted a 10-point Utah win. (23:51 - 26:40, South Florida vs. North Texas) Warner joked about North Texas canceling classes for tailgating. Smith called it an “elimination game” in the AAC, favoring North Texas due to “defensive improvement and home-field edge.” He noted South Florida’s weak run game and sloppy turnovers. (28:51 - 31:09, Best Bets) Smith’s pick was Arizona +2.5, citing top-five defensive metrics and calling BYU “a bit of a fraud.” Warner took Texas–Oklahoma under 43, quipping, “I’m rooting for punts.” Their closing exchange mixed data, humor, and insight—showcasing sharp analysis built on stats, context, and conviction.

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35 min
October 07, 2025 Dream Recap - NFL Week 5
RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik and Mackenzie Rivers talk NFL recap for Week 5.
[RJ Bell (0:06–0:20)] opened in disbelief over Arizona’s collapse. [Steve Fezzik (0:20–1:05)] vented, “I had Arizona and Indy… easiest winner ever. And yet somehow it lost,” showing frustration with improbable losses. [Bell (1:15–1:52)] called it “two or three things that were a hundred to one each,” defining its absurdity. [Fezzik (2:24–3:08)] blamed player arrogance—“Hand the ball to the referee”—as Arizona, up 21–6, fumbled twice, turning a 99% win chance into defeat. [Rivers (3:08–3:24)] confirmed a 98% win probability even post-turnover. [Bell (5:08–6:04)] said Arizona’s average win rate was 89%, second-most unlikely loss in a decade. [Fezzik (6:29–7:48)] slammed coaching “incompetence” for running three times and punting, gifting Tennessee a comeback. [Bell (7:49–9:37)] added metrics: –24 kickoff yards, –7 in turnovers plus sacks, yet 45% success rate vs Tennessee’s 37%, proving superior play undone by mistakes. [Fezzik (9:53–10:15)] said Arizona repeats errors; [Bell (10:33–11:04)] tied that to Kyler Murray’s weak leadership. [Fezzik (11:05–11:59)] contrasted him with Mahomes: “Mahomes dives on the ball… Kyler stands there,” showing passion vs passivity. [Bell (11:59–12:19)] moved to Baltimore’s meltdown vs Houston. [Fezzik (12:19–14:25)] admitted his once–No.1 Ravens were “five points worse than average.” [Rivers (15:18–15:27)] cited Stroud’s 99.5 QBR; [Bell (15:27–16:09)] added Houston’s 61.5% success vs Baltimore’s 37%. [Fezzik (16:19–16:24)] cut Baltimore three points, raised Houston 1.5. [Bell (16:54–17:49)] noted Houston’s average snap 16 yards closer to scoring—total domination. [Fezzik (17:49–18:14)] confirmed 400–200 yard edge. [Bell (18:26–18:44)] said elite defense plus average offense makes Houston “well above average.” [Fezzik (19:13–19:31)] shifted to Giants-Saints: “five straight turnovers.” [Bell (19:31–20:05)] said that gave New Orleans a 34-point edge. [Fezzik (20:12–20:17)] noted Saints’ red-zone flaws but solid play. [Rivers (21:18–21:36)] said they’ve covered nearly every game. [Bell (22:14–22:56)] saw Giants QB Dart as “slightly below average passer, above-average runner.” [Fezzik (23:13–23:28)] predicted more rushing. [Fezzik (25:17–26:06)] said Seattle “should have won 38–35,” averaging nine yards per play but losing from turnovers. [Bell (26:37–26:57)] added success rates: Seattle 62%, Tampa 51%, both elite. [Fezzik (29:24–30:35)] noted Rams outgained San Francisco by 2.3 yards per play but failed twice inside the five. [Rivers (32:17–32:35)] described 49ers’ “dink-and-dunk” control style. [Bell (32:59–33:11)] compared Purdy to Mac Jones—efficient but limited. [Fezzik (36:04–38:22)] highlighted Minnesota’s trick-play win over Cleveland, 49% vs 39% success rate and seven explosive plays to three. [Fezzik (42:08–42:58)] analyzed Washington’s easy win over Chargers, calling them “a sneaky contender.” [Bell (45:02–47:46)] praised Detroit’s 37–24 rout of Cincinnati as a “wipeout,” citing +13 turnover points and +252 hidden yards. [Bell (49:59–50:43)] warned power ratings ignore style—Detroit dominates early, KC thrives late. [Fezzik (51:59–52:19)] said Philly-Denver was even statistically, but Sean Payton’s bold two-point try flipped momentum. [Bell (55:56–56:38)] said it forced Philly from clock-control comfort. [Fezzik (57:29–57:47)] lamented fading stars Barkley and Henry losing burst. [Bell (59:42–59:56)] ended on Indianapolis’s rise; [Fezzik (1:00:10–1:00:24)] said they “might be the best team.” [Bell & Fezzik (1:05:03–1:07:22)] agreed old coaches like Belichick and Carroll can’t adapt to the fast-changing league. [Fezzik (1:11:19–1:11:54)] closed with betting advice: “Target 7.5-win teams with young coaches for Coach of the Year.” [Fezzik (1:13:36–1:16:49)] finished humorously, describing a month at a luxury gym as a short burst of energy—an apt metaphor for fleeting success and needed renewal.

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1 hr 21 min
October 03, 2025 NFL Player Props - Week 5
Munaf Manji and SleepyJ talk NFL player props for week 5.
Munaf Manji (0:16 - 0:58) opened by welcoming listeners to the NFL Week 5 props edition, promising four picks each, touchdown props, and a final best bet. He highlighted last week’s success going 3-1 and cashing Bo Nix’s passing yards over, setting momentum for this week. SleepyJ (0:59 - 1:15) returned after a busy week, eager to deliver winners. Munaf (1:17 - 1:50) stressed their 3-1 record on best bets and shifted to quarterback props. SleepyJ (1:51 - 3:23) started with Tua Tagovailoa under 32.5 passing attempts, noting Miami’s offense fares worse when Tua throws more, pointing to past losses tied to higher attempts. With Tyreek Hill out and Carolina better attacked on the ground, he expected “more HN, less Tua.” Munaf (3:23 - 6:51) agreed Miami should run more without Hill’s deep threat. His QB prop was Baker Mayfield to throw an interception vs. Seattle, citing the Seahawks’ ball-hawking defense that intercepted Purdy, Rodgers, and Murray twice each. He noted Mayfield threw three picks vs. Seattle in 2019 and another in 2023, making turnovers likely. SleepyJ (6:51 - 7:28) reinforced that without Mike Evans, Mayfield would struggle. Moving to running backs, SleepyJ (7:37 - 9:10) played Jordan Mason under 80.5 rushing + receiving yards against Cleveland, explaining the Browns’ top-ranked run defense and Minnesota’s depleted offensive line left Mason little chance. Munaf (9:10 - 12:37) supported this with stats: Browns allowing 60.5 rush yards per game and 2.29 per carry. His RB pick was Justice Hill over 14.5 receiving yards, noting Lamar Jackson’s absence meant Cooper Rush would rely on checkdowns. Hill’s snaps rose to 59% and he logged 41 yards last week, showing reliable production. SleepyJ (12:37 - 13:54) agreed, suggesting Hill could equal Henry’s snaps. At wide receiver, SleepyJ (14:03 - 15:37) chose Garrett Wilson over 62.5 yards, citing Dallas’ league-worst pass defense and Wilson’s dominance with 38 team targets versus the next at six. Munaf (15:38 - 19:43) added Dallas allows 207 yards per game to WRs, worst in the NFL, and praised Wilson’s opportunity. His WR pick was Courtland Sutton over 56.5 yards, pointing to chemistry with Bo Nix and recent big-yardage games. SleepyJ (19:44 - 21:17) highlighted Eagles rookie Quinyon Mitchell’s struggles, making Sutton a strong matchup. At tight end, SleepyJ (21:28 - 23:49) doubled up with Trey McBride over 63.5 yards and Marvin Harrison Jr. over 50.5 yards for Arizona, arguing with RBs hurt, Kyler Murray would lean on them. Munaf (23:50 - 27:15) agreed, calling it a breakout spot. His TE pick was Sam LaPorta over 39.5 yards vs. Cincinnati, who allow 61 per game to TEs. SleepyJ (27:16 - 29:00) warned about blowout risk but leaned over. Munaf (29:00 - 30:14) emphasized Cincinnati’s fragile psyche without Burrow. After promotions, SleepyJ (32:46 - 34:33) chose Alvin Kamara anytime TD vs. the Giants, noting his slump could rebound against a weak rush defense. Munaf (34:34 - 38:57) picked Quinton Johnson anytime TD for the Chargers, citing three scores in four games and Washington’s poor defense. For their best bet, Munaf (38:57 - 40:41) gave Nico Collins over 72.5 yards vs. Baltimore, with back-to-back big games and Ravens’ injury-riddled secondary. SleepyJ (40:41 - 40:40) added Collins could hit alt lines of 100+ easily, even 150 if the Ravens’ holes were exposed. Munaf (40:41 - 41:38) confirmed Collins’ alt yardage odds, locking in Texans WR Nico Collins over 72.5 as the official best bet. SleepyJ (41:39 - 42:02) closed by urging use of the promo code and predicting another winning week, while Munaf (42:02 - 42:19) signed off confident they’d improve to 4-1 on best bets.

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46 min
October 02, 2025 Dream Podcast - NFL Week 5 THE PICKS !!
RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik and Mackenzie Rivers talk NFL week 5 betting. Best bets as always.
RJ Bell (00:00–06:15) opened the discussion by setting the stage for NFL Week 5 betting analysis. He stressed the importance of contextualizing performances with both player and team-level statistics. At one point he stated, “This season has shown us how much variance there can be week to week,” underscoring that bettors must balance single-game data with longer-term trends. His remarks highlight the volatility of early-season NFL lines and the danger of overreacting. Steve Fezzik (06:16–14:40) provided the first set of deep insights by breaking down specific matchups. He highlighted quarterback efficiency metrics, noting that certain players had completion rates under 60% despite inflated passing yard totals. He explained that this discrepancy signals inefficiency, saying, “Yards don’t always tell the story — accuracy and drive results matter more.” Fezzik further analyzed how team-level statistics like third-down conversion rates and red-zone efficiency paint a clearer picture of which teams are truly excelling. His commentary suggested that bettors should fade teams with gaudy yardage but weak situational performance, since these flaws are often hidden by surface-level stats. Mackenzie Rivers (14:41–21:30) shifted the conversation toward betting strategy, bringing in data-driven perspectives. He emphasized the importance of looking at pace of play, pointing out that teams with slow tempos create fewer possessions, which makes covering large spreads less likely. He added, “If you’re betting big favorites, you need pace to be on your side,” reinforcing that tempo directly impacts betting value. His analysis implied that savvy bettors must weigh not only talent and matchups but also game flow tendencies. RJ Bell (21:31–29:00) returned to synthesize the insights, highlighting how combining efficiency metrics with pace of play creates a sharper betting edge. He remarked, “It’s not about one stat in isolation — it’s about how the puzzle pieces fit together.” This perspective tied together Fezzik’s micro-level player evaluations and Mackenzie’s macro-level tempo analysis, showing how bettors can build layered models for predicting outcomes. Steve Fezzik (29:01–36:00) closed with actionable best bets for Week 5. He pointed to a particular underdog where inefficiencies in the opponent’s third-down defense suggested strong value. He also highlighted a totals play, citing both teams’ red-zone struggles as a key angle. His best bets reflected his earlier arguments about situational statistics carrying more predictive weight than raw yardage. Mackenzie Rivers (36:01–end) ended by reinforcing the key theme of discipline in betting. He cautioned against chasing narratives, stating, “The market reacts to stories — sharp bettors react to numbers.” This final remark encapsulated the entire conversation, reminding listeners that statistics, when carefully analyzed in context, provide the real edge for NFL betting in Week 5.

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1 hr 51 min
September 30, 2025 College Football Week 6 Preview + Best Bets !!
Griffin Warner and Lonte Smith talk College Football betting for Week 6. The guys also give out best bets.
[Griffin Warner] (0:31 - 1:18) introduces the show, noting his co-host Lonte Smith’s winning Illinois pick against USC and his own losing Ole Miss bet. He asks Lonte about his weekend and expectations ahead. [Lonte Smith] (1:19 - 2:39) reflects on Illinois’ fight despite red-zone fumbles and missing starters. He highlights USC’s injuries, such as Jacoby Lane’s reduced impact, and says Illinois delivered value for bettors. He’s optimistic but cautious about consistency. [Griffin Warner] (2:40 - 3:23) transitions to Kansas State vs. Baylor, with Kansas State 6.5-point underdogs. [Lonte Smith] (3:24 - 5:38) says Kansas State looked sharper after adjustments, particularly by running Avery Johnson, which opened their offense. Baylor, meanwhile, squandered a 14-0 lead and showed defensive weaknesses. He predicts points on both sides and leans toward Kansas State. [Griffin Warner] (5:38 - 6:10) asks if Kansas State’s rebound is real or a fluke. [Lonte Smith] (6:10 - 7:33) admits Kansas State was downgraded in his ratings but may be trending upward. He calls this road test at Baylor pivotal. [Griffin Warner] (7:33 - 8:59) introduces Vanderbilt vs. Alabama, with Alabama heavily favored after beating Georgia. [Lonte Smith] (9:24 - 12:23) credits Vanderbilt’s explosive offense behind Diego Pavia but warns about their depth and fatigue from six straight games. He highlights Alabama’s improving health, noting RB Jan Miller’s return and DT Tim Keenan’s impact, plus their offensive line’s strength with only five pressures on 40 dropbacks. He leans Alabama but advises waiting for the line to dip below 10. [Griffin Warner] (12:23 - 13:20) questions how Vanderbilt still draws betting interest. [Lonte Smith] (13:20 - 14:36) explains Vanderbilt’s ATS success and strong performances under Clark Lee make them attractive to bettors despite Alabama’s public appeal. [Griffin Warner] (14:36 - 15:38) moves to Texas vs. Florida, Texas -7 with a 42-point total. [Lonte Smith] (15:39 - 19:30) calls both teams similar: elite defenses but struggling offenses. Florida has faced tougher competition while Texas has underperformed against weaker teams. He cites Florida’s injuries, Texas’ shaky QB Arch Manning, and underwhelming receivers. He loves the under, splitting bets between first half and full game. [Griffin Warner] (19:30 - 21:36) agrees, pointing out Florida’s low scoring totals and Arch’s questionable play. [Lonte Smith] (21:37 - 23:56) makes a bold bet on Arch for Heisman, arguing the race is wide open and late-season showcases could propel him back into contention with media support. [Griffin Warner] (23:56 - 25:36) acknowledges it as a team award and says Texas’ success could fuel his candidacy. He shifts to Miami vs. Florida State, where Miami is -4.5 on the road. [Lonte Smith] (25:36 - 27:59) praises Miami’s dominance, especially their ninth-ranked rush defense, and predicts they will force Florida State out of their comfort zone. He favors Miami and the under 54.5. [Griffin Warner] (27:59 - 28:20) cites Florida State’s comeback vs. Virginia as resilience. [Lonte Smith] (28:21 - 30:10) concedes resilience but argues Virginia’s turnovers gifted Florida State short fields, warning Miami won’t be so lenient. He again favors the under. [Griffin Warner] (30:10 - 31:03) promotes a Pregame.com discount code OPTION15. [Lonte Smith] (31:03 - 32:52) gives his best bet: UAB +7 vs. Army. He cites Army’s weak pass defense, ranked 127th in success rate allowed, against UAB’s top-20 passing attack. He predicts UAB covers and possibly wins outright. [Griffin Warner] (32:53 - 34:03) finalizes with his best bet: Miami–Florida State under 54.5. Together, they close with UAB +7 and the under in Miami–Florida State as their strongest plays.

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38 min
September 30, 2025 Dream Recap - NFL Week 4
RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik and Mackenzie Rivers recap NFL Week 4.

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1 hr 20 min
September 26, 2025 NFL Player Props - Week 4
Munaf Manji and Lonte Smith talk NFL Week 4 player props betting.
[Munaf Manji] introduced props across positions. [Lonte Smith] began with Tua Tagovailoa over 243.5 yards Monday night, noting “he’s averaged 254 against the Jets” and McDaniel will push him after Miami’s 0-3 start. [Munaf Manji] agreed, adding urgency for Tua and coach jobs. His QB prop targeted Jordan Love’s longest completion over 38.5, citing Dallas’ defense surrendering multiple 40+ plays: “it just takes one pass.” [Lonte Smith] agreed, naming WR Golden as likely to hit. At RB, [Lonte Smith] chose Jameer Gibbs under 64.5, stressing Cleveland’s rush defense at 57.3 yards allowed per game and Henry held to 11-for-23. [Munaf Manji] agreed, noting Browns allow only 2.25 yards per carry. His RB pick was Ashton Gentry over 63.5 vs Chicago, pointing to Bears’ 5.34 YPC allowed, with Gibbs and Javonte Williams torching them. [Lonte Smith] called it Gentry’s “coming out party.” At WR, [Lonte Smith] pushed Nico Collins over 71.5 yards, citing big games vs Tennessee’s weak secondary and 8-for-104 last week. [Munaf Manji] doubled down, citing his home splits—70 yards and 16 TDs at home vs 54 and 4 on road—and Sneed’s “who?” comment as bulletin-board fuel. At TE, [Lonte Smith] loved Hunter Henry over 40.5, calling it “my favorite play,” citing Panthers’ struggles vs McBride and Strange, plus Henry’s 23 team-leading targets and 8-for-90 line with 2 TDs. [Munaf Manji] agreed, saying the number is “a little low” and suggested ladder bets. They also mentioned Puka Nacua’s steady 9+ targets weekly and Jackson Dart rushing overs at 34.5. For anytime TDs, [Lonte Smith] picked Woody Marks at +200, noting goal-line weakness in Tennessee and dual-threat usage. [Munaf Manji] picked Collins to score at +115, citing 14 TDs in 16 Houston home games, and Mahomes rushing TD at +340, warning it’s “alarming” he leads KC in rushing but already has 2 TDs. Finally, both agreed the best bet is Bo Nix over 218.5 passing yards vs Cincinnati. [Munaf Manji] cited Bengals’ weak pass defense: Flacco 290, Lawrence 271. He added Nix hit 219 and 3 TDs on them last year. [Lonte Smith] predicted “explosion” plays would push him over. They closed with consensus that Nix’s passing over is week four’s strongest prop, while Collins and Henry offer strong supporting plays.

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38 min
September 25, 2025 Dream Podcast - NFL Week 4 THE PICKS !!
RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik and Mackenzie Rivers talk NFL betting for week 4.
RJ Bell 00:00–04:00 opened by framing NFL Week 4 picks, noting how public perception often swings too far based on recent performances. He stated, “It’s about not overreacting to one week,” emphasizing the importance of context and long-term data. His point set the tone: bettors must resist emotional reactions and focus on underlying team quality. Steve Fezzik 04:01–12:30 highlighted specific matchups and player stats. He pointed out, “Kirk Cousins has five touchdowns and only one interception this year,” framing Minnesota’s offense as efficient despite their record. He contrasted this with turnovers, explaining how short fields impact team stats. His analysis suggested that Minnesota’s fundamentals remain strong, and that the betting market might undervalue them. Scott Seidenberg 12:31–20:00 broke down trends. He said, “Favorites are only covering at 38% through three weeks,” which underscored the importance of considering underdogs early in the season. He explained that public bettors favor favorites, but sharp bettors capitalize on inflated lines. This observation had implications for several Week 4 lines, showing that market inefficiencies persist. RJ Bell 20:01–28:30 pivoted to broader team evaluations. He argued, “The Cowboys’ defense has given up only 10 points per game,” highlighting elite defensive metrics. However, he warned that such dominance may regress against stronger offenses. By contextualizing stats, RJ showed how even strong numbers may not be sustainable, a reminder that stats need situational framing. Steve Fezzik 28:31–40:00 returned with targeted player and team analysis, noting how quarterback play under pressure often dictates outcomes. He emphasized, “Pressure rates are more predictive than sack totals,” underscoring how advanced metrics reveal true team strength. He connected this to Week 4 matchups where defensive pressure could swing results, highlighting that surface-level stats often mislead. Scott Seidenberg 40:01–50:00 focused on team situational spots. He noted, “Teams on short rest cover just 42% historically,” showing how rest disadvantages alter outcomes. He tied this to specific Week 4 games, suggesting bettors must factor scheduling into handicapping. His insight illuminated how off-field variables create hidden edges. RJ Bell 50:01–End closed by reiterating discipline. He remarked, “The goal isn’t to win every game, it’s to make good bets consistently,” stressing the importance of process over results. His final words carried weight, reminding listeners that smart wagering comes from context, trends, and data-driven decisions, not emotion.

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2 hr
September 24, 2025 CFB Week 5 Preview + Best Bets !!
Griffin Warner and Lonte Smith talk CFB betting for Week 5.
[00:00 | Speaker 3] The discussion begins with intensity: “Offense, play fast. Defense, swarm. Swarm and tackle.” The repeated demand to “out-block, out-tackle, out-hit, out-hustle” and “Leave no doubt tonight!” frames a theme of urgency and dominance. [00:45 | Griffin Warner] Griffin introduces the Week 5 show, joking about Vanderbilt’s surprising success and admitting their bets went 0-2 after a 2-0 streak, showing how volatile the season can be. [02:10 | Lonte Smith] Lonte reflects on UConn: “The UConn play was the wrong side,” noting they had chances but “couldn’t capitalize and couldn’t stop Kelly on the run.” He highlights Vanderbilt scoring 72, their most since 1918, underscoring how explosive games can get. [05:30 | Griffin Warner] Alabama vs Georgia comes up with Alabama +3 and total 52. [06:15 | Lonte Smith] Lonte stresses “My number is exactly three,” pointing to both teams’ weak pass rush. Georgia ranks outside the top 100 in EPA per pass and has just three sacks, while Alabama has only 31 pressures. He predicts “an explosion of big plays” and loves the over 52.5, leaning slightly to Georgia at home. [12:40 | Griffin Warner] Griffin asks about shifts in program power. [13:20 | Lonte Smith] Lonte explains, “Bama is second tier to what Georgia is doing,” crediting Kirby Smart’s continuity and NFL pipeline, while contrasting Saban’s defensive style with DeBoer’s offensive focus. [15:00 | Griffin Warner] Next is LSU at Ole Miss, with Ole Miss -1.5 and total 54.5. [15:45 | Lonte Smith] Lonte breaks down the quarterback dilemma: Trinidad Chambliss has been “nothing short of sensational,” while Austin Simmons is turnover-prone. LSU can exploit Ole Miss’s weakness, “outside the top 115 in rush success rate.” He says, “The over is good regardless of quarterback.” [21:20 | Griffin Warner] Moving to Ohio State at Washington, Griffin notes the line moved from -12.5 to -8.5. [22:00 | Lonte Smith] Lonte cites, “Five and nine straight up for Power Four quarterbacks making their first road start.” Washington has a 21-game home win streak, one of the best in the nation. He suggests betting Washington early before Ohio State’s depth shows, expecting an eventual Buckeye win by eight or nine points. [28:15 | Griffin Warner] Griffin asks why bettors move against “the number one program.” [28:40 | Lonte Smith] Lonte answers that sharps love home dogs, adding Washington’s momentum, dual-threat QB De’Mon Williams, and cross-country travel factors make this a prime spot. [31:00 | Griffin Warner] Griffin introduces Oregon at Penn State, Oregon +3.5. [31:30 | Lonte Smith] Lonte says, “I love Penn State in this spot.” He criticizes Drew Aller, “outside the top 100 in QBR,” and weak receivers, but expects Penn State’s elite defense in a whiteout to overwhelm Oregon despite Dante Moore’s strong play. He predicts a 9-10 point Penn State win. [37:00 | Griffin Warner] Griffin highlights the impact of a night game at Happy Valley and travel challenges. [38:10 | Lonte Smith] Lonte agrees, noting Penn State’s balance and defensive edge. [39:45 | Griffin Warner] Griffin offers promo code “Blitz20.” [41:00 | Lonte Smith] Lonte’s best bet is Illinois +7 vs USC, citing USC’s struggles traveling east and poor defense: “124th in rush success rate allowed.” With RB Aiden Lowry returning and QB Luke Altmyer’s legs, Illinois can bounce back. [44:00 | Griffin Warner] Griffin agrees on the full touchdown value. His best bet is over 54.5 in LSU vs Ole Miss, banking on scoring regardless of quarterback uncertainty. [46:00 | Closing] Both hosts thank listeners, preview October matchups, and hope to rebound with winners.

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40 min
September 23, 2025 Dream Recap - NFL Week 3
RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik and Mackenzie Rivers talk NFL recap for week 3.
RJ Bell (0:06–0:28) opened the Week 3 recap with Steve Fezzik and Mackenzie Rivers, pointing straight to the Rams’ late collapse. Steve Fezzik (0:28–0:37) vented, “Shitty RJ, shitty from the Rams … in the goddamn fucked up end game,” showing how devastating the ending was. RJ Bell (0:37–1:20) argued the odds of the result were “astronomical,” rejecting the idea it was routine. Steve Fezzik (1:20–2:29) explained the math: only a 0.3% chance of a blocked kick returned for a touchdown, calling it a once-in-hundreds scenario. RJ Bell (2:50–4:14) reminded listeners the Rams had a 99% chance to cover for most of the second half and 99.9% on the final snap. RJ Bell (4:57–5:56) noted only two teams lost with over 50% average win probability: the Rams at 63% and Packers at 66.2%. Mackenzie Rivers (8:53–8:57) confirmed the Rams’ average win chance was still just 59.5%, proof of how sudden the collapse was. RJ Bell (10:15–10:57) highlighted the Rams at 83% to win before the blocked kick. Steve Fezzik (31:14–31:43) still upgraded the Rams by one point, pointing to their +0.8 yards per play edge. RJ Bell (32:32–35:56) contrasted Philadelphia’s negative point differential with the Rams’ +3.8 average, moving the Rams ahead in power ratings. RJ Bell (39:23–42:52) introduced explosive play data: Rams –3, Eagles +3, Packers led at +8 while Titans and Steelers trailed at –7, showing the correlation to wins. Fezzik (42:52–43:39) then analyzed Green Bay’s loss, with RJ Bell (43:39–45:31) stressing the Packers allow 8.2 fewer points per game than average, best in the league. Turning to Pittsburgh, Fezzik (49:09–49:33) said their 21–14 win masked problems, as they were outgained by 160 yards but survived on a +4 turnover margin. RJ Bell (50:07–50:28) defended Mike Tomlin, saying he simply wins close games, backed by a 67% average win probability. Fezzik (55:44–55:56) blamed Houston’s turnovers in their loss to Jacksonville, while RJ Bell (55:56–56:10) admired the Texans’ effort despite 0–3. Fezzik (1:05:48–1:05:53) downgraded Atlanta –1.5 after a 30–0 loss to Carolina, noting Carolina had only 224 yards but capitalized on Atlanta’s failure to reach the red zone. Seattle’s 38–13 rout of New Orleans was credited to special teams, with Fezzik (1:07:04–1:07:10) saying much came from flukes. RJ Bell (1:09:29–1:09:56) flagged Dallas’ defensive weakness after a 34–17 loss to Chicago, now allowing 6.5 more points than average, while the Bears controlled the game with 81.5% win probability. Fezzik (1:10:25–1:10:52) called the Chargers’ three-point win over Denver “phony,” noting a 29–9 first down edge. Fezzik (1:16:18–1:16:25) lamented Marvin Harrison Jr.’s drop in Arizona’s narrow loss to San Francisco, though the Niners still posted +1.6 yards per play. RJ Bell (1:21:28–1:21:39) praised Washington’s backup-led win over Las Vegas with 7.5 yards per play and 82.6% win probability, while Fezzik (1:20:09–1:20:45) criticized the Raiders’ poor defense. RJ Bell (1:25:10–1:26:54) listed struggling teams: Cincinnati (–8.5), Miami (–8), Saints (–12.5), Raiders (–5.2), Jets (–7), Titans (–6.8). He also tagged over teams like Dallas (+8.9) and Chicago (+6.75) versus under teams like Green Bay (–8) and Cleveland (–7). Finally, RJ Bell (1:28:12–1:28:31) previewed Packers vs. Cowboys as the next big game, with the line moving from Green Bay –2.5 to –7 after CeeDee Lamb’s injury.

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1 hr 33 min

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