I’ve been studying Robin Hanson’s catalog of writings and interviews in preparation for our upcoming AI doom debate. Now I’m doing an exercise where I step into Robin’s shoes, and make the strongest possible case for his non-doom position!

This exercise is called the Ideological Turing Test, and it’s based on the idea that it’s only productive to argue against someone if you understand what you’re arguing against. Being able to argue *for* a position proves that you understand it.

My guest David Xu is a fellow AI doomer, and deep thinker, who volunteered to argue the doomer position against my version of non-doomer “Robin”.

00:00 Upcoming Debate with Dr. Robin Hanson

01:15 David Xu's Background and Perspective

02:23 The Ideological Turing Test

02:39 David's AI Doom Claim

03:44 AI Takeover vs. Non-AI Descendants

05:21 Paperclip Maximizer

15:53 Economic Trends and AI Predictions

27:18 Recursive Self-Improvement and Foom

29:14 Comparing Models of Intelligence

34:53 The Foom Scenario

36:04 Coordination and Lawlessness in AI

37:49 AI's Goal-Directed Behavior and Economic Models

40:02 Multipolar Outcomes and AI Coordination

40:58 The Orthogonality Thesis and AI Firms

43:18 AI's Potential to Exceed Human Control

45:03 The Argument for AI Misalignment

48:22 Economic Trends vs. AI Catastrophes

59:13 The Race for AI Dominance

01:04:09 AI Escaping Control

01:04:45 AI Liability and Insurance

01:06:14 Economic Dynamics and AI Threats

01:07:18 The Balance of Offense and Defense in AI

01:08:38 AI's Potential to Disrupt National Infrastructure

01:10:17 The Multipolar Outcome of AI Development

01:11:00 Human Role in AI-Driven Future

01:12:19 Debating the Discontinuity in AI Progress

01:25:26 Closing Statements and Final Thoughts

01:30:34 Reflecting on the Debate and Future Discussions

Follow David: https://x.com/davidxu90

The Ideological Turing Test (ITT) was coined by Bryan Caplan in this classic post: https://www.econlib.org/archives/2011/06/the_ideological.html

I also did a Twitter version of the ITT here: https://x.com/liron/status/1789688119773872273

Doom Debates catalogues all the different stops where people get off the "doom train", all the different reasons people haven’t (yet) followed the train of logic to the conclusion that humanity is doomed.

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