S2 Underground

//The Wire//1900Z April 13, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: STABBING ATTACK IN SYDNEY LEAVES 6 DEAD. IRAN SIEZES ISRAELI CARGO SHIP.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Australia: A stabbing attack at the Westfield Bondi Junction Mall in Sydney has left 6x dead, and 8x people wounded. The attacker was shot and killed at the scene by police. AC: Authorities have not revealed the name or background of the assailant, other than that he was known to authorities and reportedly had a history of violent encounters with police. Authorities have also stated that the attack was not terrorism. This is almost certainly a blatant fabrication as the basic details of the attack strongly indicate what would normally be considered to be a terror attack.

Middle East: Iranian forces have seized the Israeli-linked container ship M/V MCS ARIES in the Strait of Hormuz.

-HomeFront-

New York: A riot broke out between police and Palestinian supporters in midtown Manhattan following weeks of increasingly more kinetic demonstrations. AC: In the United States, the wide-ranging nature of pro-Palestinian groups and demonstrations is not easy to discern; the tangled web of political ideologies and allegiances is often contradictory and confusing.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Though the hijacking of the M/V MSC ARIES is par for the course, the implications of what this attack may suggest can be more serious than first realized. Iran occasionally (but regularly) hijacks ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, so the targeting of an Israeli ship at a time of increased tensions is not unexpected. However, Iran normally seizes oil tankers, not container ships. As a result, questions remain as to if Iran has decided to implement a Houthi-like blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. If so, serious escalations of the conflict will likely occur. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been a wartime training scenario for decades, considering the impact that this maritime chokepoint has on global economics.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2130Z April 12, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: HOUSE RENEWS FISA SECTION 702. RUSSIA TESTS ICBM.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Russia: A ballistic missile test was carried out overnight from a facility in southern Astrakhan. The test launch was carried out from the Kapustin Yar test facility. Though Russian defense forces have previously announced the number of missile tests to be conducted this year, this specific test was not announced to the public ahead of time, keeping with the Russian tradition of only giving the U.S. 24 hours notice for any test launches. AC: The type of missile tested was not named by the Russian MoD, but was likely a TOPOL-M (NATO: SS-27 SICKLE B) ICBM. The choice of test site was also likely selected deliberately due to the rising tensions in the Middle East; the missile launch would have been visible to virtually the entire region, and likely was intended to serve as a reminder to all parties of the seriousness of the potential escalation of conflict within the Middle East.

-HomeFront-

USA: The U.S. House of Representatives has voted to renew Section 702 of FISA. The bill now heads to the Senate, where it is expected to pass.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: The renewal of Section 702 should not be surprising, nor should the tie-breaking vote in favor of the renewal being cast by House Speaker Mike Johnson. Though the changes to Section 702 are exceptionally dystopian in nature, the status quo of American surveillance largely will be unchanged. However, the means by which this vote was achieved have widened the perception of staggering corruption and blackmail within federal government.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2100Z April 11, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: TENSIONS REMAIN HIGH IN ANTICIPATION OF IRANIAN EMBASSY STRIKE RESPONSE. INCREASE IN STRATCOM ACTIVTY OBSERVED.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: Anticipation remains high regarding the potential Iranian response to the Embassy strike in Damascus. Russia, Germany, and other European nations have called for all parties to exercise restraint as the conflict between Israel and Iran becomes more direct in response to recent events. AC: It’s too soon to tell what the result of this more recent flare-up will be, but claims as to the apocalyptic potential are probably overhyped. Iran may choose to respond with substantial military strikes. Likewise, Israel may respond to the response with an even more substantial tit-for-tat move. However, even considering the seriousness of the situation, a no-holds-barred total war is unlikely at this stage. No major combatant is truly prepared for the war to expand significantly, but the potential for mistakes and diplomatic mis-steps always increases the chances of unplanned escalation.

-HomeFront-

USA: A slight increase in the baseline of USSTRATCOM activity was observed last night following an increase in HFGCS radio traffic overnight. This morning approximately 4-6x E-6B Mercury aircraft were active around the continental United States as well, along with a few other strategic airframes.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: As with all strategic indicators, these data points could be nothing…but could also be something. Normally, this level of traffic is an indicator of a training exercise. The lack of any substantial traffic from the Russian BearNet also indicates a more benign use of American strategic assets. However, increases to the strategic baseline are a useful metric to track as being aware of the movement of strategic assets can be a good indicator of potentially very serious world events.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2130Z April 10, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: MANILA PROTESTS HIGHLIGHT GROWING CONCERNS. FISA REAUTHORIZATION DRAWS IRE IN CONGRESS.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Far East: Chinese drone incursions on Taiwan’s Kinmen Island have increased over the past few weeks. Due to the extremely close proximity of this island to a major international logistics hub (only a couple of miles away), smaller quadcopter drones have been increasingly used to surveil Taiwan’s remote observation posts on the island.

Demonstrations broke out at the Chinese consulate in Manila last night as Filipino citizens voiced objections to the escalation of conflict within the South China Sea. Of note, protesters also criticized the growing relationship between the Philippines and the United States. AC: These sentiments are not new, having been growing during the past few years of the “Pacific Pivot” (the re-militarization of the Pacific theatre). However, these tensions will almost certainly grow in the Philippines as the temporary proxy nature of American involvement in their nation becomes more clear.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. – Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) has once again become a hot issue in Congress as its renewal has placed much scrutiny on the program. So far, pushback among some members of Congress has delayed the reauthorization of Section 702, however the text of the proposed changes is still being considered by Congress.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Despite its name, the regulations set forth in FISA mostly apply to American citizens, with opponents of the measure having revealed the extrajudicial surveillance this law authorizes. As a reminder, the FISA process has been used over 3.4 million times to spy on Americans. Congressional testimony has confirmed that this process was used illegally over 278,000 times to surveil Americans without obtaining a warrant. This lack of oversight has been debated for years, and the complexity of the federal surveillance state has resulted in very few people digging through the details of how intense this surveillance is. However recent proposed changes to expand the surveillance capabilities under this law have drawn even more attention to the program. For instance, in the latest proposed changes to Section 702, Congress gave itself special exemption from surveillance efforts, so that a warrant would only be required to surveil sitting members of Congress, whereas the surveillance of taxpayers would not require a warrant. Another contention of the reauthorization is the so-called “data broker loophole” which allows federal agencies to collect untold amounts of information by simply purchasing that data from private companies, and more importantly creating the infrastructure and data exchange mediums to outsource illegal surveillance to private companies…further blurring the lines between private industry, and federal surveillance.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1930Z April 9, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: TENSIONS REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE EAST FOLLOWING MULTIPLE INCIDENTS.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: Following the events surrounding the targeting of the Iranian Embassy compound in Damascus, tensions remain throughout the region in many respects. Tensions in Gaza remain elevated as Israeli strikes continue and the invasion of Rafah enters the final planning steps. Of note, Israeli forces have withdrawn from Gaza substantially, possibly to allocate forces for the invasion of Rafah, and possibly to prevent becoming overstretched in the North as an additional front opens up in the South. Conversely, as Ramadan draws to an end, an increase in targeting is expected (and has been announced) by Hamas and Hezbollah, with uncertain levels of confidence in their ability to make good on their threats. AC: Most American pundits have also threatened an increased likelihood that Iran will directly attack the United States in response to the Iranian Embassy strike. Though U.S. bases in Syria will almost certainly receive increased levels of indirect fire attacks, diplomatically, a larger more direct attack on the U.S. makes little sense in this specific instance. From the Iranian perspective, Israel is the nation that directly attacked them, so Israel shall be the target, purely out of the desire to save face in the international community. As to what the Iranian response will be, ballistic missile attacks are the most logical attack vector, but anything goes at this point.

-HomeFront-

Idaho: Saturday afternoon the FBI arrested Alexander Mercurio at his parent’s house after he allegedly planned to provide materiel support to ISIS. He had allegedly been a part of various online communities supportive of ISIS, and had allegedly been planning to conduct an attack at a church.

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Analyst Comments: In the raid on Mercurio’s home, no evidence indicating an imminent threat was found. However, several of his father’s firearms (which were stored in a locked closet) were seized. According to the criminal complaint, Mercurio had been under surveillance for almost two years. As he is currently 18 years old, this means that he was under federal surveillance since he was a minor. As a result, it is difficult to determine if this case was a legitimate case of potential terrorism. Considering the current trends involving similar cases, much discernment is called for when examining the particulars of this case, and how the entire situation began in the first place. It is remarkable how many cases arise when an underage individual (usually with some sort of mental disability, though that is not clear in this specific case), attempts to engage in illegal activity online, and on their very first try always end up communicating directly with a federal informant.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2100Z April 8, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: HOUTHI ATTACKS CONTINUE. SHIP LOSES POWER IVO VERRAZZANO BRIDGE IN NY.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Red Sea: Houthi forces claim to have conducted attacks on several commercial ships over the weekend. The M/V HOPE ISLAND was targeted in the Red Sea, resulting in unknown success. Yemeni forces also claim to have targeted the M/V MSC GRACE F and M/V MSC GINA in the Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea, but the success of these actions is also unknown. AC: Yemen claims to have carried out the latter attacks with their Air forces, which if true, would signal both an increase in capabilities and yet another escalation of the conflict.

-HomeFront-

New York: The M/V APL QINGDAO lost propulsion while transiting the Kill Van Kull waterway at approximately 08:30 pm Sunday evening. The QINGDAO lost power just north of the Verrazzano Bridge, but tugboats were able to bring the vessel under control before any damage occurred.

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Analyst Comments: The power loss onboard the QINGDAO marks the second such incident occurring under nearly identical circumstances. Though the loss of power on a ship can result from any number of innocent mechanical issues, the circumstances and timing of recent events decreases the likelihood of both incidents being innocent mistakes.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire Weekly Rollup//March 31 – April 6, 2024//

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Syria: Sunday night, Israeli forces struck a building immediately adjacent to the Iranian Embassy in Damascus. The Iranian Embassy proper was damaged in the strike, and further investigation of the strike location indicates the building was an annex of the official Embassy and located within the confines of the Embassy compound (and thus within the area of Iranian diplomatic protection). Three Iranian generals were killed in the strike, along with a few staff officers.

Taiwan: Several earthquakes struck the island Monday night, causing widespread damage. The most substantial earthquake registered a magnitude of 7.2, the largest recorded earthquake to strike the nation since 1999. So far, the official death toll is 13 fatalities, though this number may rise as many still-missing persons become accounted for.

Belgium: During the NATO summit in Brussels, U.S. SECSTATE Blinken stated definitively that Ukraine will join NATO. AC: A timeline for this event was not given, nor were any details provided as to how this will happen as this seems to be a technical impossibility (for many reasons) at present.

-HomeFront-

Tennessee: An arson incident occurred at the Global Vision Bible Church in Wilson County at around 6:00 am Easter Sunday. A metal trailer filled with Holy Bibles was set on fire outside the front entrance of the church. Local authorities confirm the incident was intentional and no arrests have been made, despite security footage capturing the license plate of the vehicle that dropped off the trailer.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Regarding the Iranian Embassy strike, confusion continues as to mere centimeters of ground regarding the exact survey points of a compound in Damascus. However, as with nearly all Israeli airstrikes, what is absolutely clear is that the strike was conducted within the bounds of what is normally considered in the kinetic targeting community to be a CAT 1 No-Strike Entity (NSE). Additionally, the Collateral Damage Estimation (CDE) analysis of the potential Civilian Casualties (CIVCAS) caused by the chosen munitions without question confirm that, had it been carried out under U.S. regulations set forth in U.S. military law (and in Joint Publication 3-60), this strike would have been illegal. In any case, the diplomatic implications are quite severe, regardless of a few centimeters difference of diplomatic soil. If Israel had struck these generals as they stood on the sidewalk in front of the Embassy compound, the diplomatic impact would be virtually the same; worsening relations among two nations who already suffer from intense rivalry and vastly competing interests.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1700Z April 6, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: MORE EARTHQUAKES/AFTERSHOCKS STRIKE NEW JERSEY. NAGORNO-KARABAGH REMAINS TENSE.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Europe: Farmer protests continue throughout the continent. Though simmering down over the past few weeks, demonstrations were renewed overnight in many locales throughout the region.

Armenia: As tensions have been rising for weeks between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Iran has allegedly begun directly supplying Armenian forces. AC: This is not particularly surprising, considering the entities that have been arming Azerbaijan. Over the past few months, both sides have been re-arming, prompting concerns that the Nagorno-Karabagh War may reignite over the next few months.

-HomeFront-

New Jersey: Follow on aftershocks struck the region yesterday, including another 4.4 magnitude earthquake. Damage reports have again been minimal, but many resources have become strained due to comparatively powerful earthquakes not being common in the region.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Right now it’s too soon to determine if the Nagorno-Karabagh War will begin in earnest once again, however tensions are rising in the region. Both sides (equally serving as proxies for much larger nationstates) have motivations to continue the conflict, even considering the devastation that the previous war brought to the region.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

Hey everyone, quite a big topic to cover this time but I hope that this was a good introduction to one of the world's most infamous conflicts.

As usual, these kinds of conflicts really make us reflect on the situation here at home, which isn't always super positive. However, this is a good reminder that even when a conflict seems like it will never end, peace will be the result at some point.

Youtube version: https://youtu.be/g4bzRS6gnDo

00:00 - Introduction and Overview 

01:30 - Conflict Summary 

04:43 - Conflict Origins 

10:45 - Lessons Learned 

15:47 - IRA Split 

17:46 - Takeaways 

29:56 - "Societal Loading" 

40:19 - Closing Thoughts

//The Wire//1800Z April 5, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: EARTHQUAKE STRIKES NEW JERSEY. SECSTATE BLINKEN SAYS UKRAINE WILL JOIN NATO.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Belgium: During the NATO summit in Brussels, U.S. SECSTATE Blinken stated definitively that Ukraine will join NATO. AC: A timeline for this event was not given, but considering the implications of such actions, concerns abound as to what will transpire when this does happen.

-HomeFront-

New Jersey: A 4.8 magnitude earthquake struck in the vicinity of Lebanon. AC: As this is the strongest earthquake to hit New Jersey since 1884, substantial civil disruptions were reported. Damage reports have so far been minimal, but 911 call centers became overloaded as citizens called to report the earthquake. Ground stops were also reported at the following airports as crews inspected runways for damage:

John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK)

Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR)

Baltimore/Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport (BWI)

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Even though Ukraine joining NATO would be the absolute worst military option (reinforcing a defeat and taking on the responsibility of defending a nation that could not defend itself) this course of action was inevitable due to the deep financial incentives of the United States. Though many Americans believe that such an action would immediately result in WWIII, how this will work in practice is unknown. Absolutely zero NATO members are anywhere near combat ready for this situation; and 100% of the warmongering individuals are only doing so to the point of financial benefit, almost certainly not really desiring a true conflict. However, this is obviously a very dangerous game, one which most world diplomats are not equipped to play.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//