S2 Underground

//The Wire//2230Z March 25, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: UNSC APPROVES TEMPORARY GAZA CEASEFIRE RESOLUTION.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

France: The terror alert scale has been raised to its maximum level following the terror attack in Moscow. AC: It is unclear as to why France has done this; the nature of the Moscow attack (and the highly questionable details of the incident) does not lend itself to being an indicator of follow on attacks, or at least not any more than France experiences routinely. However, French authorities could be concerned with the potential reactionary attitudes throughout their nation, which may increase the chances of copycat attacks.

-HomeFront-

New York: The United Nations Security Council adopts a ceasefire resolution for Gaza following the abstention of the United States.

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Analyst Comments: The impacts of a UNSC ceasefire resolution are unclear for many reasons. The text of the resolution itself is halfhearted at best, only intending to provide a ceasefire for the last two weeks of Ramadan. No continuing peace agreement is on the table. However ineffective this resolution may be, perhaps the most significant impacts will be had on the diplomatic front. The abstention by the United States (instead of a “no” vote” has soured relations with Israel, with PM Netanyahu canceling an official visit to the United States because of it. However, this does highlight the unique nature of special interest groups in American politics, pulling official government policy in every direction, usually with confusing and contradictory results. Competing and contradictory interests even within government agencies have obfuscated all US policy regarding this conflict for some time. Of course, it is up to the belligerents of the conflict as to whether or not a ceasefire shall be reached; a piece of paper at the UN means nothing on the ground. Likewise, the involvement of the US on either side is uncertain. If a ceasefire agreement comes into effect, what is to become of the US military operation to build logistical infrastructure in Gaza? As with almost all US foreign policy conducted over the past few decades, it is often challenging to discern whether inexperience, corruption, or imbecility of the highest order is the cause for American diplomatic follies overseas. However, in this case, the combination of all three is likely to result in little change in the conflict with regards to American involvement.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire Weekly Rollup//March 17-23, 2024//

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Haiti: The situation remains tenuous as violence continues. Evacuation flights continue to be undertaken (mostly by helicopter) as many nations evacuate their citizens from Port-au-Prince.

Russia: This week an attack at the Crocus City Hall concert venue in Moscow left an estimated 133 dead, and many others wounded. Most of the assailants were captured alive, and enhanced field interrogation techniques have indicated that the motive for the attack may have been financial rather than ideological.

Aside from the terror attack, substantial changes have been observed in Russia on the military front with regards to the conflict in Ukraine. Just a few hours before the Crocus shooting, the Kremlin announced that Russia is shifting to a state of war in Ukraine. AC: Up until this point, Russia has always referred to the conflict in Ukraine as a “Special Military Operation”, stopping short of calling the conflict a “war”.

This policy shift also came after Russia conducted a precision strike on the power generation units of the Dnipro Hydroelectric Station, which provides power for the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station in southeastern Ukraine.

Africa: The ruling military council in Niger has announced the cessation of the military agreement allowing American troops to remain stationed in the country. Following the military coup last year, the majority of US involvement in the region was largely confined to what is publicly known as Base 201. This base is a major hub for U.S. operations conducted against ISIS throughout the region. 

Far East: China continues to make preparations for what is generally recognized as the most likely national objective over the next few years…the reunification of Taiwan. Tensions have been exacerbated following several incidents over the past few weeks. The expansion of American military deployments to Kinmen Island has also worsened relations, along with the typical fishing disputes. However, China also continues to expand influence and control into the more far-flung regions of the Earth. This week, Chinese officials met with Nigerien politicians with the goal of establishing a national railway network throughout Niger. Chinese officials also met with Ismail Haniyeh, a senior Hamas official, marking the first time Chinese representatives have officially met with Hamas since the recent escalation of conflict in Israel.

-HomeFront-

Arkansas: Bryan Malinowski died of his wounds following being shot by ATF agents during a raid on his home this week. Malinowski was the Executive Director of the Bill and Hillary Clinton National Airport in Little Rock. He has been affiliated with the airport in varying capacities for over 30 years, and was appointed to this position in 2019.

Washington D.C. – Congress passed the $1.7 trillion omnibus spending bill.

Texas: The border crisis continues as increasingly violent illegal immigrants begin demonstrating more combative behavior towards American military forces defending the border. This week, journalists have been prevented from accessing locations near the border by federal Customs and Border Patrol agents, drawing down the potential locations by which footage can be obtained of the thousands of illegals being trafficked into the United States by federal agents daily. AC: As a reminder, deportations have 

//The Wire//1700Z March 23, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: U.S. DOJ LAUNCHES NEW RED FLAG PORTAL, CROCUS SHOOTING SUSPECTS ARRESTED IN RUSSIA.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Russia: Though details are challenging to verify with any veracity, the death toll following the Crocus terror attack has reportedly risen to over 120. FSB agents have arrested over a dozen suspects in connection with the attack. Almost all of the shooters have been captured alive, and most appear to ethnically be of Tajik descent, or at minimum not ethnically Russian.

Far East: Tensions between Taiwan and China have increased slightly above baseline this week following the deployment of American troops to Kinmen Island. The occupation of this observation post, though largely having been an open-secret over the past few years has reignited local tensions and provided another opportunity for escalation.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. – This morning the Department of Justice launched the National Extreme Risk Protection Order Resource Center. AC: This is essentially a learning portal intended to share information with local police, medical providers, and informants on how to more effectively confiscate guns and remove rights via red flag laws and other extrajudicial processes.

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Analyst Comments: Though again details are impossible to verify independently, the Russian FSB has released initial field interrogation videos of several of the Crocus shooting suspects taken immediately after arrest. Accounting for the fact that these videos are always taken under a state of duress and probably scripted (or at minimum, rehearsed), all of the shooting suspects indicated they were recruited on Telegram and paid to conduct the attack. Again, it must be stressed that most of these “field interrogations” involve clearly documented cases of torture, so any confessions made aren’t very reliable from an intelligence collection standpoint.

However, in the interest of expediency being the most effective method of countering runaway theories, this is an important distinction to make as the mainstream media is running with the story that the attackers were ISIS and the attack was carried out for ideological reasons. Considering these very rough initial details, at the very least it would be operationally prudent to remember that none of the other confirmed details of this attack match the typical ISIS attack profile. The assailants surviving the attack alone is a strong indicator of ideology not being the driving factor behind this incident.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2000Z March 22, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: TERROR ATTACK STRIKES MOSCOW. HOUSE PASSES TRILLION DOLLAR SPENDING BILL.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Haiti: Evacuations and repatriation operations continue via a variety of means. Due to the targeting of fixed-wing aircraft in the vicinity of the main airport in Port-au-Prince, and the difficulty in reaching the airport itself, many evacuation efforts are being carried out via helicopter to the neighboring Dominican Republic where the security of additional logistics can be guaranteed.

Russia: This evening, at least five gunmen conducted a terror attack at the Crocus City Hall in Moscow, a large public concert venue and theatre. The attack has reportedly left over 40 dead, and hundreds wounded, though these numbers are expected to rise. Following the shooting, the Crocus Hall complex was observed to be on fire. As of this report, hundreds of civilians and victims are reported to still be trapped inside the burning structure.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. – In Congress, the House passed the $1.2 trillion omnibus spending bill this morning. The bill was introduced Thursday night, less than 24 hours before the vote. The bill is over 1,000 pages long. Included in the bill is an additional $300 million for Ukraine and $200 million for the creation of a new FBI headquarters. An extra $1 billion was given to the TSA (in addition to their $10.5 billion funding), specifically for “pay equity investments”.

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Analyst Comments: As the Moscow attack was ongoing, and even before the situation had reached a conclusion, the White House issued a statement that there were no indications that Ukraine was involved, nor did the United States have advance knowledge of this attack. This could be a knee-jerk reaction in order to protect the United States proxy (even without knowing or verifying the facts), or this could suggest knowledge of the incident beforehand. As a reminder, two weeks ago the U.S. State Department (as well as the diplomatic wings of several other European nations) posted very specific warnings via the U.S. Embassy in Moscow, regarding the increased likelihood of terror attacks conducted against soft-targets at public concert venues in Moscow. As evidenced by history, the U.S. DoS has an exceptionally poor ability to assess threats of any kind, much less to specifically outline the exact attack profile used by the terrorists today.

Additionally, on the geopolitical front, Russia has officially transitioned into a state of war in Ukraine. Up until this point, Russia has always referred to the combat operations in Ukraine as their “Special Military Operation”, refraining from using the term “war” to describe their military operations. Within hours of this policy shift, the attack was carried out at the Crocus venue. Though obviously many factors must be considered, what is exceptionally clear is the gravity of international atmospherics at this time. As this terror attack is potentially one of the worst in Russian history, careful diplomacy and exceptional tact must be observed by world leaders as international tensions reach exceptionally grave levels of concern.

In Congress, the $1.2 trillion spending bill also completely strips funding for the United Nations Relief and Works Agency. As a reminder, UNRWA has been accused of supporting Hamas by Israel. However, no evidence has been provided by Israel to substantiate these claims, leading even FVEYs partners (such as Australia) to press Israel for details of this alleged cooperation, which have gone unanswered. UNRWA is the main aid UN aid group distributing aid (provided by a plethora of nations) and providing medical care in Gaza. The denial of funding, based 

//The Wire//2230Z March 21, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: INDIA BEGINS RESCUE OPERATIONS IN HAITI. SECURITY CONCERNS OF ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION MANIFEST.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Haiti: India has begun an operation to rescue Indian nationals that have become stranded due to the recent escalation of violence. The status of the evacuation of American citizens in Haiti remains less clear. State Department representatives have indicated that roughly 1,600 Americans have requested evacuation in Port-au-Prince.

-HomeFront-

Texas: This morning a wave of more violent illegal immigrants resulted in a perimeter breach in El Paso. This comes as more favorable weather conditions allow increased human trafficking during the spring and summer months throughout Central America. AC: Though the latest riot at the border has increased the visibility of a desperate situation, the overall status of illegal immigration (and the Operation Lone Star mission) continues to be nearing a breaking point with regards to the sheer number of illegals being trafficked over the border.

North Carolina: Further details emerge regarding an incident that occurred last week involving an individual suspected of having ties to terrorism. Last week, Awet Habte Hagos was arrested in Gates County after firing a rifle outside of the convenience store where he worked. Following the police response and subsequently trying to gain control of the responding officer’s gun, he fled the scene. He was later arrested after being found hiding under a local resident’s home.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: After the arrest of Awet Hagos, few details emerged regarding the case until yesterday, when it became known that Hagos has strong ties to subversive activity. Allegedly being born in Eritrea, Hagos made his way to the United States via Haiti. Though not confirmed at this time, official statements have insinuated that he was an asylum seeker. In any case, authorities claim that either his presence in the U.S. or the pretense by which he obtained entry was illegal. Additionally, he was wanted by both the FBI (where he is listed on a terror watchlist), and ICE for separate reasons. Additionally, upon searching the recreational vehicle that was his domicile, weapons and “military intelligence material” was found by the local Sheriff.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2030Z March 20, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: FRANCE THREATENS DEPLOYMENT OF TROOPS IN UKRAINE. CLINTON AIRPORT DIRECTOR SHOT IN ATF RAID.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

France: Over the past few weeks, wide swings in rhetoric have called into question France’s intentions in Ukraine. Largely arising out of confusing and contradictory statements between President Macron and senior defense officials, France’s official policy regarding the potential deployment of French soldiers to Ukraine has not been clearly outlined. However, recent statements by senior defense officials indicate that France may potentially send up to 20,000 soldiers to Ukraine.

-HomeFront-

Arkansas: Yesterday one ATF agent was shot while attempting to serve a search warrant in a dawn raid at the home of Bryan Malinowski. During the exchange of gunfire, Malinowski himself was shot in the head, and is currently on life support. The cause for the raid has not been made public. AC: Malinowski is the Executive Director of the Bill and Hillary Clinton National Airport in Little Rock. He has been affiliated with the airport in varying capacities for over 30 years, and was appointed to his current position in 2019.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: In Europe, NATO members have expressed inconsistent policy stances as it becomes increasingly obvious that Ukraine is losing the war. As such, the atmospherics around the issue have rapidly shifted from “we would never consider sending NATO troops to Ukraine” to “we’re looking at only sending 20,000 French soldiers”. The expediency of this rhetoric shift indicates the severity of the situation. Of course, even considering this new rhetoric, the overall situation does not change that much. The most loosely-guarded secret of the war is that NATO troops from dozens of nations have secretly been fighting in Ukraine (in limited roles) under the classic guise of being “advisors”. Since the first day of the war, it is almost certain that American “advisors” secretly were running the show at most echelons of military command. If France were to openly send tens of thousands of troops to Ukraine, the military value of this would be negligible at this late stage. However, France may be trying to maneuver Ukraine into a better negotiating position by doing so. War is indeed a continuation of politics by other means, however special talents are required to make the inverse true and use the threat of war to force a better political position. As such, the open discussion of sending NATO troops to directly fight Russia in Ukraine is likely to cause difficult questions to arise; questions that the prior secrecy afforded ignorance of due to political leadership and diplomats not understanding the severity of the games they are playing.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2130Z March 19, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: CONFLICT ERUPTS ON AFGHAN/PAKISTANI BORDER. CHINA INCREASES PARTNERSHIP WITH NIGER.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Niger: As Nigerien attitudes towards an American presence in Niger remain tepid, Chinese influence continues to grow throughout the region. Yesterday, the Governor of the State of Niger met with representatives of the China Railway Corporation with the intent to explore the options of creating a railway network that would span the majority of the country.

Afghanistan: Conflict has erupted between Taliban forces and Pakistani border guards as Afghan forces seize key terrain in what is traditionally referred to as the semi-autonomous Federally Administered Tribal Area (FATA) in Pakistan.

-HomeFront-

Texas: The U.S. Supreme Court has ruled in favor of Texas, ruling that the state can enforce immigration law by making illegal entry a state crime.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: As the extremely rugged terrain along the Afghanistan/Pakistan border is some of the most remote and inaccessible land on Earth, it is challenging to determine how far Afghan forces have gone in conducting limited assaults into what is technically Pakistan. The nature of the conflict is also likely not a full-scale invasion, but rather typical of the conflict throughout the region; mostly skirmishes and limited engagements between small units on both sides. However, this does indicate that Afghanistan is not just interesting in, but also capable of, settling old scores with historic adversaries.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2100Z March 18, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: PROTESTS BEGIN IN CUBA, VIOLENCE CONTINUES IN HAITI.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Haiti: The situation on the ground remains tenuous as violence continues and the geopolitical situation remains challenging to describe. Many low-level gangs have taken advantage of the chaos in order to settle scores; many reports have surfaced of piles of bodies being found in the street, the reason for which is not often discernible. AC: Many people appear to be killed for any number of reasons, and perhaps most dangerously, for any reason at all. This unfortunately is not new for Haiti, and has been a tragic reality for those living in the beleaguered nation for years.

Cuba: Growing dissatisfaction among the populace has become more palpable following demonstrations throughout the country. Many of the demonstrations are in response to recent food shortages, which have increasingly become more serious over the years. A recent spike in blackouts and food shortages has resulted in localized demonstrations in many cities and towns throughout the nation. 

Niger: The ruling military council has terminated the defense agreement that had previously allowed U.S. personnel to remain in the country. AC: As a reminder, Niger is technically in a state of military coup, following the ousting of President Bazoum in July, 2023.

-HomeFront-

Massachusetts: Six children have been criminally charged for speech crimes following the revelation of allegedly racist group chat messages. The District Attorney has charged all six juveniles with intent to commit a crime. Two of the children will be charged for interfering with civil rights, and another child will be charged with interfering with a witness. The charges come directly after the local NAACP branch sent a letter to the local school district, demanding an investigation.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: In Niger, the ruling military council has mandated the immediate removal of all U.S. personnel from the territory of Niger. However, the timeline for such removal has not been clearly outlined. As it will take some time for the U.S. to draw down forces in the region, what comes next is not certain. Additionally, it is not clear as to if the U.S. will be leaving Niger. Immediately following the coup last year, similar demands were made as the military leadership sought to consolidate power. Currently, the U.S. military presence in Niger is largely focused at Base 201 (a secret drone base from which the U.S. conducted many operations against ISIS in the region), as well as at the U.S. Embassy, and the international airport in Naimey. At the time of the initial coup, it is likely that the American response was to “sit tight” and wait for an ECOWAS-led intervention force to restore order to the capital…a force that never came. Almost a year after tensions began, ECOWAS is not in a position to even guarantee their own internal security, much less launch an invasion into Niger. Consequently, it is possible that the U.S. will face the loss of yet another strategic military foothold in Africa, if an agreement with the ruling government of Niger cannot be established.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire Weekly Rollup//March 10-16, 2024//

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Haiti: This week marked a substantial increase in violence throughout the nation following an uprising that occurred as the Prime Minister departed the country for a state visit. Prime Minister Henry has since resigned. Over the past couple of weeks, much of the country has been in a state of bedlam as various gangs and local warlords vie for control. Currently, the main warlord that has succeeded in maintaining the most influence in Port-au-Prince is Jimmy Cherizier, an ex-police officer turned gang leader. Among the populace, Haitian society has devolved into even more desperation than in years past, with multiple reports of cannibalism in the capital city. The U.S. Embassy has evacuated non-essential personnel, and a USMC FAST team has been deployed to supplement the security teams in the vicinity of the Embassy in Port-au-Prince. A Kenyan-led peacekeeping mission is allegedly being prepared by the United Nations, but few details have emerged regarding this operation, or the timeline for deployment.

Middle East: Israeli PM Netanyahu has authorized the plans for the ground invasion of Rafah in Gaza.

Africa: Several nations along Africa’s west coast have observed internet connectivity problems arising from issues within the Africa to Europe (ACE) submarine cable network. AC: The cause of the outages has not yet been publicly disclosed.

-HomeFront-

USA: This week has been challenging for Boeing as nearly daily incidents have affected multiple Boeing platforms. Though increased scrutiny of aviation mishaps is likely contributing to a perceived increase in incidents, extenuating circumstances have tipped the scale of public opinion against Boeing. This week, Boeing whistleblower John Barnett was found dead in his vehicle as he was taking part in testimony against Boeing. Barnett, who had previously indicated concerns for his personal safety, has been the highest-profile whistleblower to highlight Boeing’s use of substandard parts in the construction of aircraft.

Washington D.C. – A report published this week by the Government Accountability Office has confirmed that video game companies are collaborating with federal agencies to identify and target “extremism”. The report also indicates that the end goals of this collaboration are unclear, and conducted without warrants.

Iowa: Tyson Foods announces the permanent closure of a large pork processing facility in Perry. The facility employs approximately 1,300 people and is scheduled to close in June. This follows Tyson’s announcement of plans to hire up to 52,000 illegal immigrants in New York.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: As Boeing remains in the media spotlight, it is challenging to determine if Boeing’s recent string of scandals are linked to a true increase in aviation mishaps, or the result of increased scrutiny. However, the highly suspicious death of a whistleblower while testifying against Boeing is not likely to result in the benefit of the doubt or good faith being granted to Boeing. Alternatively, it is important to remember that Boeing’s competitors are highly incentivized to amplify Boeing’s mishaps in the media.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1800Z March 16, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: STATE DEPARTMENT BEGINS REPATRIATION FLIGHTS FROM HAITI.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Haiti: This morning the U.S. State Department announced a repatriation flight for Americans stranded in Haiti that are able to make it to the airport in Port-au-Prince. Details can be obtained from the Embassy, who has provided an intake form for Americans desiring to leave the country.

-HomeFront-

Iowa: Tyson Foods announces the permanent closure of a large pork processing facility in Perry. The facility employs approximately 1,300 people and is scheduled to close in June. AC: A few days ago, Tyson announced plans to hire up to 52,000 illegal immigrants in New York.

Pennsylvania: An active shooter situation was reported in the Falls Township area, as a gunman conducted attacks at multiple locations. So far, the shootings have resulted in the deaths of four people, and the wounding of many others. The suspect has been identified as Andre Gordon Jr, and is currently wanted following his carjacking of a Gold colored Honda CR-V. Local St. Patrick’s Day celebrations and events have been canceled as a shelter-in-place order was issued for the area. AC: It is currently not known if this is a more deliberate attack or related to standard street crime.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: It is unclear as to if additional repatriation flights from Haiti will be scheduled; the DoS has only referenced one flight, likely due to the difficulty of reaching the airport or the Embassy compound at this time.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//