//The Wire//2030Z February 21, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: GOVERNMENT DISSOLVED IN GUINEA. RED SEA ATTACKS CONTINUE.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Guinea: Yesterday the ruling military junta dissolved the entire government, ordering all governmental ministers to surrender their passports. The borders of Guinea have also reportedly been closed as the ruling junta seeks to consolidate power. AC: Though no reason was provided for this change of stance, it is not entirely unexpected for a nation operating in a state of military coup for over two years. Guinea’s main national contribution to the world is in the form of natural resources; Iron and Bauxite ore are the main mineral exports, along with Diamonds and Gold.

Red Sea/HOA: Houthi forces posted a video online last night, strongly indicating that they have captured an American Remus 600 Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV) in the waters off the coast of Yemen. This underwater drone is reportedly one of the most sophisticated technologies developed for the U.S. Navy.

In the southern Red Sea, Houthi attacks on commercial shipping remain constant. Overnight, one as-yet-unidentified vessel was targeted successfully with unknown munitions. UKMTO has issued a warning to commercial vessels, highlighting the threat of loitering munitions in the southern Red Sea.

-Homefront-

USA: The Biden regime has announced the cancellation of an additional $1.2 billion of student debt for approximately 153,000 people. To date, various federal entities have already canceled (or technically, transferred to the American taxpayer) over $138 billion of student loan debt from approximately 3.9 million individuals.

NY: The revelation of a recent rule change has indicated that potentially tens of thousands of illegal immigrants have been allowed to receive substantial cash payments in addition to the monthly benefits already provided. This follows the announcement of $53 million in prepaid cards being issued to illegal immigrants in NYC, which includes payments of up to $10,000 per illegal immigrant, without any accountability requirements or checking identity documents.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Though quietly passed last year, the New York Governor’s office changed the eligibility requirements for it’s Safety Net Assistance (SNA) program to include illegal immigrants. Previously, this was a special welfare program specifically designed to provide cash payments to individuals who did not meet eligibility requirements for other programs. Though accountability is virtually nonexistent, city officials estimate that approximately 10% of illegals living in NYC are receiving benefits through this program. As the total estimated number of illegals residing in NYC is approximately 173,000, this means that an estimated 17,300 illegals are receiving funding through this program. Though not surprising in the slightest, the overwhelming funding provided to illegal immigrants in New York has become staggering when compared to the average salary of taxpaying Americans.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1930Z February 20, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: HOUTHI FORCES INTENSIFY ATTACKS, SHOOT DOWN AMERICAN DRONE.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Red Sea/HOA: Significant escalations in the region have taken place following the successful attack on the M/V RUBYMAR with many commercial vessels being targeted by a variety of Houthi weapons systems. The following is a summary of the vessels targeted yesterday: 

M/V SEA CHAMPION – Struck with one Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM). Minor damage reported.

M/V NAVIS FORTUNA – Struck with kamikaze drone. Minor damage reported.

USS LABOON (DDG 58) – Attacked with ASCM, which was successfully intercepted. No damage reported.

Additionally, CENTCOM reports various un-named coalition vessels engaging a total of 10 kamikaze drones in the region overnight.

Last night, Houthi forces reported successfully shooting down an American MQ-9 Reaper drone off the coast of Yemen. Though CENTCOM has not officially confirmed the shootdown, local Yemenis have posted photos of the debris on various social media platforms. AC: This morning, CENTCOM did make a reference to destroying a SAM site for the first time in this conflict. However, this conveniently leaves out the reasoning behind locating the SAM site likely being the result of an MQ-9 being shot down.

-Homefront-

NY: A large nationwide trucking protest has begun to become more organized. Various independent truckers are organizing to boycott deliveries to New York following the perceived injustice of the outcome of Donald Trump’s civil trial. AC: This protest officially started yesterday, but due to the media blackout of this demonstration it has taken time for many truckers to hear about it. The specific goals of this protest are to deliberately cause shortages of resources and increase prices for New Yorkers.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Few details remain regarding the status of the M/V RUBYMAR, the vessel that was reportedly sunk Sunday night, and thus leading to the current escalation of the conflict in the Gulf of Aden. Though the crew reported both taking on water and uncontrolled fires before abandoning ship, it is unclear as to if the vessel has finished sinking or if salvage operations will attempt to be conducted. As the crew has abandoned ship, for simplicity the M/V RUBYMAR will be referred to as ‘sunk’ until more information becomes available.

Regarding the probable shootdown of an American drone off the coast of Yemen, this could temporarily increase concerns for commercial aviation throughout the region in addition to the merchant shipping woes. This is the second recent shootdown of an American drone in the region, with Houthi forces shooting down another American MQ-9 back in November of last year. As the MQ-9 platform is a high-flying asset, the weapons system used to target this drone would also certainly be capable of targeting commercial aviation. This is further reinforced by CENTCOM’s announcement of striking a SAM site. It is almost certain that the asset used to target the drone was an SA-6 GAINFUL surface-to-air missile system, the same asset used to down the first MQ-9 in November.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1800Z February 19, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: HOUTHI FORCES SINK SHIP IN BAB EL MANDEB STRAIT.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: Western mainstream media reporting over the past 24 hours has suggested that Egypt may be preparing for the reception of Palestinian refugees. Planet Labs satellite imagery was provided to media groups that indicates a large swath of land is being cleared in Egypt, just across the border from Rafah. Egyptian authorities have denied these claims, as the policy of strategic ambiguity precludes Egypt from making a de facto admission that the expulsion of Palestinians into Egypt might be possible. AC: Though it is challenging to verify anything that is provided to media groups, the quiet preparation of emergency refugee camps in Egypt is very likely following the Israeli announcement of imminent operations in Rafah. Though the politics of the events in Gaza cloud the situation on the ground, it is clear that Egypt has always considered the expulsion of Palestinians into Egypt as a possibility, and if these preparations are confirmed, these actions to prepare for such strongly indicates that Egypt may believe this worst-case scenario is very likely.

Red Sea/HOA: Houthi attacks on commercial shipping became more serious overnight following the sinking of a commercial vessel. Overnight, Houthi forces struck the M/V RUBYMAR (a Belize-flagged bulk cargo carrier) with multiple cruise missiles. The crew abandoned ship shortly after the strike. This morning, the RUBYMAR was reported as being sunk in the Bab el Mandeb Strait. AC: This marks the first (publicly-disclosed) successful sinking of a commercial ship by Houthi forces so far in this conflict.

This morning, Houthi attacks continued as another vessel was targeted in a similar manner. An as-yet-unidentified vessel reported multiple explosions in close proximity to the vessel in the Gulf of Aden.

-Homefront-

TX: Border situation continues as before, despite little independent media coverage of the truth on the ground. Events in the vicinity of Eagle Pass have largely developed into politics, with Shelby Park mostly serving as a location for photo opportunities or press events due to the halting of illegal immigration in this very small area.

Relations among defense forces in the region remain tepid as politics becomes more intertwined with the border protection mission. On Friday, Texas announced a $131 million plan to build a Forward Operating Base (FOB) near the southern U.S. border. FOB EAGLE BASE CAMP will be completed in September, and will reportedly be a larger version similar camps already in place throughout the region. AC: Though on paper this makes sense, creating a FOB virtually identical to those found overseas is mildly concerning for some. Using the term “FOB” to describe this base is almost certainly a political move to increasingly drive a wedge between the state and federal governments, or at the very least undermine and chip away at the perceived control of the federal State by using language and terminology that reinforces the military tone of illegal immigration being treated as an invasion.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Houthi forces, likely emboldened by their public sinking of a commercial ship, will likely continue targeting vessels in a similar manner. It has become clear via the daily successful targeting of commercial shipping that OPN PROSPERITY GUARDIAN is hopelessly ineffective in providing missile defense for commercial ships. U.S. Navy forces constantly report the ‘successful strike’ of allegedly staged missiles and drones, yet the only limiting factor for the Houthis seems to be simply the lack of western vessels willing to take the risk of transiting the Red Sea. 

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire Weekly Rollup//February 11-17, 2024//

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: Israel began the military campaign to gain control of the city of Rafah, along the Egyptian border. This operation, while slow to begin, has so far largely comprised of large bombing campaigns. In northern Israel tensions with Lebanon remain elevated following the Israeli targeting of Hezbollah observation posts and rocket launch sites in southern Lebanon. These strikes have become more routine in response to Hezbollah rocket attacks, and when combined with the large buildup of Israeli troops in the north, questions remain as to whether or not Israel will commit to opening up yet another front while the majority of IDF soldiers remain committed to operations in Gaza.

Red Sea/HOA: This week American forces in the region stepped up alleged “self defense” targeting of Houthi facilities and equipment. Anti-Ship Cruise Missiles (ASCMs), Unmanned Surface Vehicles (USVs), and various Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAVs) have been the primary targets engaged daily. The Houthi targeting of commercial shipping has continued as before, with the handful of commercial ships still committed to transiting the Bab el Mandeb Strait being routinely targeted by Yemeni forces. An approximate average of one or two ships transiting the region per day have been successfully struck by Houthi cruise missiles. AC: As routine combat operations seem to have begun under the guise of “self defense” strikes, it is important to remember that the U.S. has not declared war on Yemen or the Houthi forces controlling the majority of the country (and the government sector). 

Europe: This week sentiments among various nations have increasingly indicated the desire for the Gaza war to reach a conclusion. Wednesday, French President Macron voiced objection to the Israeli campaign in Gaza in a phone call with PM Netanyahu. Specifically, Macron stated that France’s position was one of firm opposition to the current events in Gaza, and that restricting the access of aid groups to “a population in an absolute humanitarian emergency was unjustifiable”. 

This strongly-worded rhetoric follows recent rulings suggesting Dutch opposition to Israeli actions in Gaza. On Monday, a Dutch court of appeals ruled against the Dutch government, halting the export of F-35 aircraft parts to Israel, due to the legal implications of doing so. Specifically, the court ruled that “It is undeniable that there is a clear risk the exported F-35 parts are used in serious violations of international humanitarian law”. AC: Though this is merely one court’s opinion, this is the very first de facto admission by a legal power within a European nation that suggests that violations of humanitarian law are being committed by Israel. This is also the first time that a nation, legal power, or entity that is not affiliated with a pro-Palestinian movement has made these implications, lending more weight to the allegations than claims made by obviously politically motivated entities. President Macron’s statements add some weight to this idea, as he is the only European Head of State to use such strong language in the diplomatic space surrounding Israel. However, Macron’s own reputation (along with the current problems with pro-Palestinian migrants in France, and his potential motivations to satisfy this demographic) lessens the objectivity of his concerns.

Russia: Prison officials in the Yamalo-Nenets correctional district announced the death of Alexei Navalny at the IK-3 penal colony. The circumstances of his death were reportedly sudden, according to officials who state that he died shortly after collapsing. Navalny’s attorney, who spoke with him a couple of days prior, has stated that he appeared to be in good health (considering the conditions of confinement at the facility).

//The Wire//1600Z February 17, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: CONFLICT CONTINUES IN THE RED SEA. NAVALNY DEATH INCREASES INTL TENSIONS.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Russia: Much consternation abounds concerning the death of Putin critic Alexei Navalny. Pro-Russian sources are quick to point out that Navalny was prosecuted for orchestrating dissent in Russia at the behest of the West (that would be carried out via Navalny’s NGO, which undeniably has strong ties to MI6). Conversely, Western sources cite the obvious fact that, following the assassination of Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin in August of last year, Putin critics seem to be meeting very untimely ends as of late. AC: Though the impacts of Navalny’s death will not really impact the citizens of the United States or Europe, the rhetoric from mainstream sources, clearly planned and orchestrated since Navalny was imprisoned, has been overwhelming. Following the fallout that the impact Tucker Carlson’s interview with Putin has had, it is certain that Navalny’s death will be as his life was: manipulated by the west for cheap political gain. Putin meanwhile, will likely continue consolidating power as he sees fit in order to continue streamlining Russia’s economic, military, and social standing with Asia, the Middle East, and the rest of the world at large.

Red Sea/HOA: This morning, Houthi forces conducted a cruise missile attack against the M/V POLLUX a Panamanian-flagged tanker. CENTCOM reports 3-4 cruise missiles were used to target the vessel.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Continuing the trend, CENTCOM has used increasingly vague language to describe Houthi attacks. Unlike in previous reports, CENTCOM did not state whether or not the POLLUX had been struck, or if the missiles missed their target. CENTCOM only reported that there were no injuries…which is an evasive, non-committal statement that conveniently does not deny that the vessel was hit since most successful strikes do not result in the crew being injured anyway. Meanwhile, cross-referencing CENTCOM’s press releases with UKMTO indicates that only one vessel was targeted in the region within the time period of the CENTCOM report, a vessel that did report being attacked by a missile resulting in “an explosion in close proximity”. Though it is not clear as to if this is indeed the same vessel, this does highlight the potentially diverting and increasingly vague reporting in the region.

Also of note, CENTCOM’s press releases have quietly dropped all references to successful interceptions of Houthi missiles over the past few days. No mention has been made of any successful interceptions for about a week, whereas the announcement of “self-defense strikes” has been a constant. Though this is purely speculative, this could signal a shift in tactics as U.S. Naval forces are unable to provide complete missile defense for themselves or commercial shipping; shifting from defense to offense could be a perceived way to counter Houthi threats. A static target is a lot easier to hit than a cruise missile, so the U.S. may be prioritizing the strike of missiles before they are launched, and relying on Aegis missile defense as the backup plan. The data, however, speaks for itself. Houthi forces regularly successfully target commercial shipping nearly daily.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1600Z February 16, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: RED SEA ATTACKS CONTINUE. NO NEW INFO ON RUSSIAN SPACE THREAT.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Red Sea/HOA: American strikes in Yemen continue, allegedly in self-defense against varying targets in Yemen. Anti-Ship Cruise Missiles (ASCMs), Unmanned Surface Vehicles (USVs), and various Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAVs) have begun to be targeted daily by U.S. forces in the region. Over a dozen various strikes have been reported over the past 24 hours. Threats to shipping continue as Houthi forces target multiple cargo vessels. The M/V LYCAVITOS was attacked with a cruise missile yesterday in the Gulf of Aden, and this morning an as-yet-unidentified vessel also reported being attacked by a cruise missile. AC: As this conflict has settled in for the long haul, the routine nature of attacks results in details being lost. Now, most reporting essentially can be summarized as “ship attacked, minor damage”. No details are ever provided following up with the status of vessels struck with cruise missiles, and no confirmation of the severity of damage is ever disclosed. This desensitization contributes to many people forgetting that one of the largest trade routes in the world is largely closed to western nations aligning with the U.S. or Israel, and that most western trade continues to be re-routed around the continent of Africa.

Russia: This morning, representatives from the Yamalo-Nenets prison district announced the death of Alexei Navalny. Navalny was serving a 19 year sentence in the IK-3 penal colony on charges of extremism. AC: Details of the circumstances of his death are predictably suspicious, with prison officials indicating that he collapsed and died. As Navalny was one of Putin’s most high-profile critics, and having survived multiple assassination attempts already, his death is not unexpected.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. – No new information regarding the “serious national security threat” claimed by Congress. Unofficially, the story has changed several times. Currently, officials claim that the threat is related to Russia’s ambitions to target American satellites in orbit, and is not related to any active capability or threat. However, rumors originating from Congress maintain that the threat is related to nuclear weapons, or something more serious than counter-satellite capabilities. AC: Clearly there are too many deliberate and open lies floating around to determine what the situation really is. This again leads to increased scrutiny as it becomes clear that the threat likely is not really a threat, but rather strategic defense technologies that have been a factor for a long time.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: As a reminder, the United States has not declared war against Yemen, or the Houthi forces controlling most of the country. The U.S. State Department has labeled the Houthi-controlled government as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist group…but not a Foreign Terrorist Organization (the most severe categorization). This means the U.S. has slowly begun conducting routine combat operations in a nation that the United States is not at war with, but most importantly, the justification for these “self defense strikes” is diplomatically dubious. For instance, OPN PROSPERITY GUARDIAN is not on the list of approved combat operations that will rate a Global War on Terrorism Expeditionary Medal for the service members involved in the conflict; this is a de facto admission that this operation is not a part of the few remaining facets of the GWOT, which in turn is a strong indicator of the unique diplomatic situation (and legitimacy concerns) that have become more of a problem now that this conflict that has slowly become an enduring issue.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1800Z February 15, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: HOUSE INTEL COMMITTEE CLAIMS SERIOUS SECURITY THREAT.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: Growing international opposition to Israel’s actions in Gaza has begun to become more public over the past few days. French President Macron urged PM Netanyahu in a phone call to end the war in Gaza, citing the overwhelming civilian casualties caused by the conflict. This follows increased personality tensions that have strained the relationship between the White House and PM Netanyahu over the past few weeks.

-HomeFront-

MO: Yesterday a shooting at the Superbowl parade in Kansas City left 1 dead and 21 wounded. AC: Though details are minimal, initial reporting suggests this incident may have been a gang-related shooting between multiple suspects, with the large casualty count being related to the shooting taking place within the parade crowd itself. However, as the suspects (or rather, the three black males that were arrested at the scene) have not yet been officially identified, many details remain unconfirmed.

Washington D.C. – Yesterday the Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee released a statement indicating that all members of Congress had been briefed on a serious national security threat, and that the President has been urged to declassify documentation regarding this unknown threat.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Unofficially, the story has been leaked to the press as being related to Russia’s ambitions to obtain undisclosed space-based strategic weapons. All details beyond this (and probably including this) are extremely unconfirmed. Currently, almost all diplomacy seems to be conducted via leaks; we rarely see a press statement from any government entity confirming anything, as leaks to the press offer the executive branch the chance of plausible deniability. All policy decisions by the Biden regime are usually leaked to the press first, to test the waters with the general public. As such, since there are no official details to work with, grand dissertations are being written by various pundits in response to what is, as of yet, a rumor.

Regarding the declassification of documents, the Office of the President is not the only entity that can declassify sensitive information. The Original Classification Authority (i.e. the organization that classified the information in the first place) can also declassify intelligence reporting. There are also other varying means of classifying intelligence reports to lower levels, by omitting sources and methods. This is quite easy, and routinely done in all joint or coalition environments. However, there is a reason as to why the emergency declassification of intelligence reports is rarely done (even though there are many procedures for it): If the threat is real, military force is used to defend against it, full stop.

The mere effort of declassifying something is a strong indicator that a citizenry would NOT approve of preemptive strikes, and would NOT see Russia’s actions as a direct threat…and therefore need to be convinced of the necessity of military action. This alone is a strong indicator that this alleged threat is not a real characterization of an imminent threat. Also considering that the United States military freely allows multiple airspace violations over US soil, with zero repercussions (not even sanctions or the slightest diplomatic complaint), it’s overwhelmingly likely that this “threat” is not direct or imminent in any way, but rather a strategic threat that is more abstract.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1700Z February 14, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: IRANIAN PIPELINE EXPLODES. ISRAEL CONTINUES ACTIONS ON MULTIPLE FRONTS.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: Attacks on various U.S. military bases in Iraq and Syria have increased over the past few weeks, following heightened tensions in the region. Over the past few days, POL facilities in Syria (such as the al-Omar oil field), along with adjacent U.S. military bases have been sporadically targeted with rockets. These attacks have ebbed and flowed in response to events in Israel, or in response to U.S. targeting in Yemen.

In Iran, a major natural gas pipeline exploded in Borujen last night. AC: No details have been provided regarding the cause of the explosion, but considering the context of the multiple wars in the region, this was almost certainly an attack and/or sabotage conducted by Israel or the United States, both of which have a long history of these types of actions within Iran. Additionally, some social media accounts in Iran are claiming that a second explosion has occurred at a pipeline in Khorramabad, but this cannot be independently verified with any confidence at this time.

In Israel, the bombing campaign against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon continues, along with sporadic strikes in the vicinity of Rafah. In the south, the Palestinian Red Crescent has reported that they have not received any supplies due to roads being blocked by ongoing protests by Israeli civilians demonstrating against sending humanitarian aid to Gaza.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. – DHS Secretary Mayorkas has been impeached by the House for issues related to the border crisis. AC: This impeachment will now head to the Senate where it likely will not pass.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: The situation on the ground with regards to humanitarian aid in Gaza is very fluid. Egyptian authorities report trucks have made it through from their side, but it’s not clear as to how many trucks are actually making it to aid distribution centers. This has been a common struggle to determine throughout this conflict so far, as the demand for the truth of the situation on the ground is not able to outweigh the information operations that have become exceptionally overwhelming.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1700Z February 13, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: FOREIGN AID SPENDING BILL PASSES U.S. SENATE. PROTESTS CONTINUE IN EUROPE.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: Israel continues preparations for operations in Rafah as leaflet drops alongside bombing operations increase in the region. However, due to the location of this border city, there are very few locations for citizens (many of which are already refugees from Gaza City) to evacuate to, raising questions of what comes next.

Red Sea/HOA: The vessel attacked yesterday by Houthi forces has been identified as the M/V STAR IRIS, a Greek-flagged bulk cargo carrier. AC: Details of this attack have been few and far between, compared to previous reports, but CENTCOM did confirm that the two cruise missiles targeting the vessel did result in minor damage, but the vessel is under her own power and continuing her voyage.

Europe: Food shortages continue to cause issues for citizens throughout the continent as widespread protests continue. As before, these shortages are largely the result of a combination of truck drivers protesting by not delivering food to certain grocery store chains, as well as the physical blocking of trade routes and border checkpoints.

-HomeFront-

USA: The impending Israeli invasion of Rafah has reignited protests and demonstrations in the usual cities; mostly Seattle, New York, Washington D.C. etc.

Washington D.C. – In a late-night session, the Senate passed the hotly-debated $95 billion spending bill for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. The bill passed with overwhelming bipartisan support after provisions for funding to counter illegal immigration at the southern US border were removed. The bill now heads to the House for a vote. AC: If passed, this bill nearly doubles the entirety of US tax dollars sent to Ukraine. American taxpayers have sent approximately $113 billion in purely cash payments to Ukraine so far during this war, a figure which does not include hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of military hardware.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Though very clearly the demonstrations in Europe are intended to reduce the impact of governance on food production, perhaps contradictorily, food shortages are beginning to become a problem for many throughout more population-dense locations in Europe.

It is important to note that demonstrators are not directly targeting all trade routes, but rather choosing to demonstrate at distribution centers and grocery stores that have become involved in the politics of the climate agenda. This includes preventing the delivery of certain products from certain nations, which negatively impact local agricultural production. For instance, farmers in Spain have been observed destroying truckloads of tomatoes from Morocco as these shipments have been directly related to the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), which has promoted cheap imports and increased taxes on local production and thus the main reason for the continent-wide protests.

However, the second and third order effects of these demonstrations, in a world where the globalism of trade is the standard, are likely impacting logistics in unintended ways. As demonstrated during the COVID era, food shortages are impossible to predict due to the effects of relying on extremely complex global markets. Virtually zero food in Europe is produced locally to where it is sold. For instance, a prepackaged salad can contain lettuce from Spain, cheese from the Netherlands, tomatoes from Italy, olives from Greece, and so on. This results in complicated problems when a single border checkpoint is impacted, or when a single freight truck is delayed.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1700Z February 12, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: ISRAEL BEGINS BOMBING CAMPAIGN IN RAFAH. SECDEF AUSTIN HOSPITALIZED AGAIN.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Netherlands: This morning, a Dutch court of appeals ruled against the Dutch government, halting the export of all F-35 parts to Israel. Per the court’s ruling, the court found that “It is undeniable that there is a clear risk the exported F-35 parts are used in serious violations of international humanitarian law”. The Dutch government has already filed an appeal of this ruling.

Middle East: Israel begins large-scale bombing operations in Rafah. Combat actions in the north have also increased. Israeli bombing of targets in Lebanese border regions has intensified following weeks of slowly increasing attacks into Lebanon. Hezbollah continues to conduct rocket attacks deep into Israel, as week as regular skirmishes and engagements of Israeli positions and observation posts along the border. In Gaza, the overall situation for the civilian populace is deteriorating severely.

Red Sea/HOA: Houthi targeting continues as before. Last night a commercial vessel was reportedly targeted with two cruise missiles in the Bab el Mandeb Strait. No further information on the success of this attack at this time.

United Kingdom: Following the withdrawal of the HMS DIAMOND from the OPN PROSPERITY GUARDIAN mission, maintenance issues continue to plague the Royal Navy as the HMS PRINCE OF WALES (R09) fails to participate in NATO exercises off the coast of Norway. The PRINCE OF WALES herself is a backup, intended to replace the HMS QUEEN ELIZABETH (R08) after she suffered propeller shaft problems and therefore was unable to participate in naval exercises. AC: At this point 100% of the Royal Navy aircraft carrier fleet is unable to deploy due to maintenance issues. These two aircraft carriers also represent two-thirds of all aircraft carriers in Europe, with France’s CHARLES DE GAULLE being the only other true aircraft carrier operational throughout the continent.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. – SECDEF Lloyd Austin has transferred command to his Deputy, Kathleen Hicks following another emergency hospitalization, allegedly due to a “bladder issue”. Austin remains in a critical care unit at Walter Reed.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Though seemingly unimportant, the Dutch ruling to ban the export of F-35 parts is the very first tentative sanction against Israel, from a European nation. The circumstances of this ruling (i.e. the undeniable civilian casualties) have resulted in one of the first official actions to admit what is going on in Gaza, that is not affiliated with any Palestinian movement or political stance. Previous efforts to counter Israel (such as the actions of the International Court of Justice, as per the lawsuit brought by South Africa) have largely been ignored by the western world, as these efforts have clearly originated from political regimes supportive of Palestine (and therefore not the most objective pursuit of justice).

As a reminder, over 1 million displaced residents of Gaza City and Khan Younis have been living in large refugee camps near the Egyptian border following Israeli mandates and evacuations ordering locals to displace to “safe zones” in Rafah. Many leaflets dropped by Israeli forces during the war have explicitly and directly ordered locals to flee to areas south of the Wadi Gaza.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//