S2 Underground

//The Wire//1730Z March 6, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: HOUTHI ATTACKS ON SHIPPING CONTINUE. TEXAS WILDFIRE IMPACTS CATTLE GRAZING.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Germany: Yesterday an arson attack on an electrical transmission line in Berlin left a large Tesla factory without power throughout the day. The far-left organization Vulkangruppe (Volcano Group) has claimed responsibility for the attack.

Red Sea/HOA: The M/V TRUE CONFIDENCE was struck by at least one Houthi cruise missile this morning attempting to transit the Gulf of Aden. Several crew members were reportedly wounded in the strike, and several crew members are unaccounted for. The vessel is sinking, and the crew has abandoned ship. The last reported position of the abandoned vessel is in the vicinity of grid 38PMU4628118677.

-HomeFront-

MI: Further details emerge following the explosions at the industrial complex in the vicinity of Groesbeck Highway in Detroit, indicating that a large collection of nitrous oxide and butane tanks were being illegally stored at the facility. Authorities have indicated the initial fire began at Select Distributors, a wholesale distributor of vaping supplies. This company also sells large tanks of nitrous oxide, which are frequently used as a recreational inhalant.

TX: The second and third order effects of recent wildfires are beginning to manifest as ranchers report the substantial destruction of cattle and grazing land. JBS has already reported the direct loss of several thousand head of cattle due to the fire, and substantial efforts are underway among ranchers to provide hay and alfalfa to those affected by the disaster.`

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Analyst Comments: Though the fire damage throughout Texas is still being assessed, the loss of over a million acres of grazing land in Texas’s largest beef cattle region is likely to impact beef production in the form of higher prices. Over 85% of all cattle in Texas graze in the region affected by wildfire, which will likely result in even higher prices in an industry already negatively impacted by many different factors. According to the USDA’s National Agriculture Statistics Service, the U.S. national cattle supply is (as of January 1st) at its lowest level since 1951, with only 87.2 million heads of inventory.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1830Z March 5, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: GLOBAL SERVICE AND PLATFORM OUTAGES REPORTED THIS MORNING.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-HomeFront-

USA: Yesterday the FAA released an update regarding the six-week audit of Boeing’s manufacturing processes. So far, the audit has revealed “non-compliance issues in Boeing’s manufacturing process control, parts handling and storage, and product control”.

This morning, several cascading outages resulted in many internet services being offline. The outage, while lasting only about an hour, affected an extremely wide range of platforms and services. Facebook was the first ecosystem affected by the outage, along with their subsidiaries Instagram and Whatsapp. However, problems were reported among many other platforms and services almost immediately. So far, Google, Youtube, TikTok, Twitter/X, Snapchat, Zoom, Discord, Gmail, Cloudflare, and AWS all reported issues or total outages. Some telecom providers (such as T-Mobile, Verizon, Spectrum, FirstNet) also reported issues all at roughly the same time. No word yet on the cause of the outage.

MI: Substantial explosions have occurred at an industrial facility in the vicinity of 15 Mile Road and Groesbeck Highway in Fraser (Detroit) overnight. Several fatalities have been reported, including a 19-year-old located a quarter mile from the blast site, who was struck and killed by falling debris. The cause of the fire and explosions is not yet known.

AC: Due to the extremely kinetic nature of the explosions, much speculation abounds regarding the seat of the initial blast incident. As the area is heavily industrialized, the fire and explosions impacted a wide area, owing to conflicting reports as to which business was the origin of the initial incident.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Multiple outages or service interruptions of completely different systems, from ISPs to social media, being reported all at the same time on Super Tuesday is indicative of nefarious intent just based on timing alone. While no cause has officially been disclosed, operating under the assumption of nefarious intent would be a wise decision.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1930Z March 4, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: RED SEA ATTACKS CONTINUE. NATO EXERCISE BEGINS IN FINLAND. TENSIONS MOUNT IN NAGORNO KARABAGH.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Europe: NATO’s standard arctic training exercise has begun, taking place this year for the first time in Finland. Normally held in Norway every other year, OPN COLD RESPONSE has been renamed to be OPN NORDIC RESPONSE as of Finland joining NATO last year. This exercise will continue until March 14th.

Nagorno-Karabagh – Tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan have escalated over the past few weeks following limited skirmishes in the region. In the Azeri controlled areas, significant construction efforts are underway, with the previous provincial capital building being demolished over the weekend. Limited skirmishes carried out by small patrols have been reported in the northern Azeri-occupied areas over the past few days, causing local concerns that the conflict may flare up again. AC: So far, there are no indications of large military movements from either side, but diplomatic relations are deteriorating which in turn will likely cause more tensions in the near future.

Red Sea/HOA: This morning another cargo ship was struck with at least one cruise missile in the Gulf of Aden. Houthi forces claim that the vessel belongs to the Israeli shipping company ZIM, but as the vessel was transiting without emitting transponder data, independent verification will take some time.

-HomeFront-

USA: Congress is considering the closure of the Northeast Gasoline Supply Reserve (NGSR). Nestled within the latest thousand-page spending bill, this closure is planned to take place after the U.S. draws down the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) by one million barrels this year. The NGSR was established in 2014 in response to the effects of Hurricane Sandy which caused widespread fuel disruptions throughout the northeastern United States. In the years since, this reserve has held approximately one million barrels of refined gasoline.

PA: A train derailment incident occurred along the Lehigh River in Lehigh County on Saturday morning. Three trains were involved in the derailment after an eastbound train collided with another train stopped on the track. The resulting debris from the first collision resulted in the derailment of a third westbound train on the adjacent track. An unknown quantity of diesel fuel was spilled into the river, but no other HAZMAT was reported. The cause of the incident is under investigation.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Regarding the potential closure of the NGSR, the reduction of strategic POL reserves is not generally recommended for a nation which has increasingly vulnerable energy needs. However, when passed, this would align with the long-standing trend of Congressional bills increasing vulnerabilities of critical infrastructure. The daily impact this would have to average citizens is minimal, but the reduction of critical energy reserves is a consideration in the event that normal fuel delivery services are impacted in some way throughout the region.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire Weekly Rollup//February 25 – March 2, 2024//

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Red Sea/HOA: Following the Houthi cruise missile strike on the M/V RUBYMAR in the Red Sea two weeks ago, this nondescript vessel was discovered to be adrift (and likely dragging her anchor) following her crew abandoning ship after the strike.

Far East: Japan has announced the revitalization of homeland defense policies amid the steady increase in tensions throughout Asia. Japanese defense officials are planning to examine the need and implementation requirements for the creation of bunkers and bomb shelters for residents living on some of Japan’s more remote outlying islands.

Eastern Europe: On Tuesday, the breakaway Republic of Transnistria voted to request to become a protectorate of Russia. This largely unknown semi-autonomous region situated in eastern Moldova along the Ukrainian border has suffered the impacts of poor relations with Moldova, leading to this recent vote. AC: It is unclear as to what Russia’s response will be. However, as the information war is in full effect, the implication that Transnistria could become another Donetsk is palpable as roughly 250,000 self-described Russians inhabit this region. However, though the Transnistrian issue is unlikely to become an additional front in the Ukrainian war, both Russia and the West could seek to capitalize on these fears in order to stoke even more defense funding and pressure NATO members even further. Russia could also be motivated to use this as a way to turn the screws to the west as Sweden’s accession to NATO is all but certain.

Canada: Several bills have been introduced in Parliament with the goal of suppressing and criminalizing speech and establishing in law the concept of pre-crime. Bill C-63, as introduced for the First Reading this week, seeks to modify the Criminal Code to create a new hate crime offense that specifically introduces life sentences for some speech crimes. This bill also allows for the preemptive house-arrest of anyone who authorities suspect may commit a hate speech crime in the future. This follows the introduction of Bill C-372 (which was tabled earlier this month) which intends to criminalize the “promotion” of fossil fuels. This bill (as it stands) was allegedly intended to restrict corporate advertising, however most of the restrictions apply to everyday citizens who could face jail time for simply stating that fossil fuels are cheaper or more reliable than allegedly “renewable” energy sources.

-HomeFront-

TX: Severe wildfires impacted substantial parts of the panhandle this week following a rapid increase in favorable fire weather conditions. The Smokehouse Creek Fire suddenly became the largest fire in Texas history (and the second largest in U.S. history), reaching a size of over 1 million acres this week. Friday morning, precipitation greatly aided firefighting efforts, but several large wildfires continue to impact much of northern Texas.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Though the M/V RUBYMAR seems unworthy of such focused attention, shortly after this incident began, telecom providers in the region reported issues with their undersea cables, possibly indicating that up to four cables had been severed. As Houthi forces have repeatedly threatened to target submarine cables, the natural assumption was that Houthi forces may have been involved. However, as the RUBYMAR is confirmed to have been dragging her anchor for two weeks, it is possible that this is the cause of these reported outages. As a reminder, the overwhelming majority of cable-cutting incidents involve either vessels dragging anchor, or undersea seismic events. Consequently, though no independent verification can be made at this time, it is worth considering that the RUBYMAR’s anchor may have been the reason for the recent telecoms issues. Likewise, as the vessel has

//The Wire//1700Z March 2, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: DIPLOMATIC TENSIONS IN ASIA WORSEN FOLLOWING FISHING DISPUTE.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Red Sea/HOA: Houthi forces report that the M/V RUBYMAR has finished sinking in the southern Red Sea. Though no independent verification of this can be made at this time, UKMTO has confirmed that her last reported position as of this morning is at grid: 38PKV7912777100.

Far East: Tensions between the Philippines and China escalate following increasingly hostile fishing disputes in the region. Following reports of Chinese and Vietnamese vessels dumping cyanide into the waters surrounding the Scarborough Shoal (in a likely attempt to assert dominance and/or degrade/destroy the reef itself), diplomatic relations with Manila have deteriorated as the Philippines determines what their response to this latest tit-for-tat conflict will be. 

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Fishing disputes in the South China Sea have been ongoing for many years, and are usually a barometer for gauging the diplomatic status between the nations that all claim fishing rights to the same body of water. Much larger power-projection moves have been observed in the past, so this latest spat is likely not as serious as media outlets would indicate. However, keeping a finger on the pulse of the region is important, as increasingly hostile actions from China (or any or the other nations involved), could signal a deterioration of relations that are already sour.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2200Z March 1, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: WILDFIRES CONTINUE IN TEXAS. JAPAN BEGINS TO IMPROVE DEFENSES ON REMOTE OUTLYING ISLANDS.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Poland: This morning a hit-and-run incident injured 17 people as a vehicle rammed into a crowd in the port city of Szczecin. The driver was later apprehended. As of this report it is not immediately clear if this was a deliberate action. 

Far East: Japanese defense strategists have outlined preparations to increase bomb shelter defenses for residents living on some of Japan’s more remote outlying islands. This follows many months of preparations among U.S. forces throughout the region, who have steadily improved existing bases throughout the region.

-Homefront-

Maine: United Airlines flight 883 (from London to Newark) conducted an emergency landing in Bangor due to an unruly passenger causing serious disruptions. No further details on this incident at this time.

Texas: Multiple wildfires continue to present hazards following the increase in favorable fire weather conditions over the past few days. The Smokehouse Creek Fire, the largest in Texas history (and the second largest in U.S. history) is now 15% contained. Precipitation yesterday greatly aided containment efforts, and have allowed crews to focus efforts on the northern edge of the fire. The Windy Deuce Fire in Moore County is still active, and is 50% contained at a size of roughly 142,000 acres.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Though the announcement of Japanese civil defense improvements may stoke concerns, this is likely not an indicator of imminent actions but rather a clear continuation of trends preparing for an eventual conflict within Asia. Most nations throughout the region have been preparing for an eventual conflict with China for years. As attacks on Japan (such as the island of Okinawa), and any other U.S. bases in the region are all but certain in the event of conflict, the creation and improvement of U.S. bases in the south Pacific is likely to increase substantially in the future.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2100Z February 29, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: WILDFIRE GROWS IN TEXAS. M/V RUBYMAR ADRIFT IN THE RED SEA.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Red Sea/HOA: The M/V RUBYMAR continues to sink as Houthi forces maintain some level of security or territorial influence around the stricken vessel. Recent open-source satellite imagery indicates that the vessel has been drifting for several days, despite the crew reporting to have dropped the starboard anchor prior to abandoning ship. 

-Homefront-

Texas: An extremely large wildfire has impacted residents in the panhandle following weather conditions that have drastically increased fire activity. Overnight, the Smokehouse Creek Fire grew to over 1 million acres in size, officially becoming the largest recorded wildfire in Texas history. As of this morning, the fire is only 3% contained.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: If the RUBYMAR is dragging her anchor, it is possible that this is the cause of the recently reported damage to undersea communications cables in the region. As the exact location of submarine cables is a closely guarded secret due to security reasons, it’s not possible to confirm this with open-source methods yet. The M/V RUBYMAR is also not emitting public AIS tracking data, so verifying her position requires manual verification via satellite imagery. This morning’s Sentinel 2a pass indicated that she has drifted approximately 50 NM from her last imagery-confirmed position on Feb 24. However, substantial cloud coverage over the target area this morning greatly inhibits confirmation of her exact position.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z February 28, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: TENSIONS MOUNT IN TRANSNISTRIA. PROTESTS CONTINUE IN EUROPE.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Europe: Yesterday the breakaway-Republic of Transnistria voted to formally request to become a protectorate of Russia. This region, a thin strip of diplomatically ambiguous land situated in the eastern part of Moldova along the Ukrainian border, has been host to sentiments similar to those of the now-occupied districts of the Donetsk in the complicatedly-described eastern region of Ukraine. Roughly 250,000 self-described ethnic Russians reside in this ambiguous breakaway region. This vote is largely the result of diplomatic and economic tensions with Moldova, which is one of Transnistria’s only trade partners.

Throughout the remainder of the continent, farmer protests continue. Demonstrations at the headquarters of the European Union in Brussels have become increasingly kinetic following the routine destruction of police barriers by demonstrators. Yesterday, an estimated 100,000 people protested against the EU’s climate agenda in Warsaw, and tens of thousands protested against the same in Madrid. Protests have expanded significantly over the past few weeks and now include almost every major western city between Wales and Greece.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Moldova’s actions so far in response to the events in Transnistria have not been clear. Limited reporting on social media has suggested military movements within Moldova, but just as with all open-source media currently, flashy videos of tanks-on-the-move are usually very common deception practices intended to drive engagement on social media. As such, while it is important to recognize the significance of the tensions in the region, it is challenging to determine what actions are being taken on the ground until more information sources become available. More generally, Russia has had a limited military presence within Transnistria for a few years, likely serving as Russia’s eyes and ears in the region.

As Sweden’s NATO membership is imminent, Russia could seek to muddy the waters by raising concerns of Transnistrian annexation. Though it is militarily unlikely, stoking the threats of Transnistria becoming another Donetsk would be a valuable propaganda tool useful to all sides. 

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1830Z February 27, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: CANADA CONTINUES ATTACKS ON SPEECH. US ARMY REPORTEDLY REDUCES 24,000 JOBS.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Canada: Several bills have been introduced in Parliament with the goal of suppressing and criminalizing speech. Bill C-63, as introduced for the First Reading yesterday, seeks to modify the Criminal Code to create a new hate crime offense that specifically introduces life sentences for some speech crimes. This follows the introduction of Bill C-372 (which was tabled earlier this month) which intends to criminalize the “promotion” of fossil fuels. This bill (as it stands) was allegedly intended to restrict corporate advertising, however most of the restrictions apply to everyday citizens who could face jail time for simply stating that fossil fuels are cheaper or more reliable than allegedly “renewable” energy sources.

Red Sea/HOA: The status of the M/V RUBYMAR remains unclear and contradictory. Last night, Houthi forces posted videos indicating that they were in possession of the partially-sunken vessel, or at the very minimum are conducting security patrols in the area. Houthi forces have claimed that they will allow the towing of the stricken vessel only in exchange for humanitarian aid being sent to Gaza. AC: This directly contradicts claims by western authorities/media that the vessel was being towed into port Djbouti. In the videos provided by Houthi forces, the condition of the vessel has deteriorated since the photos released by the BBC a few days ago. Satellite imagery confirms that the RUBYMAR is at anchor in approximately 165 feet of water, at grid coordinate: 38PLV1642909551. Currently, the vessel is abandoned and continues to take on water.

-Homefront-

Washington D.C. – This morning, Defense officials have leaked plans to restructure the U.S. Army to reduce personnel levels in response to recruiting shortfalls. According to the reports leaked to the media, allegedly 24,000 Army positions will be reduced, most of which are already vacant due to personnel shortages. AC: Continuing the frustrating trend of Pentagon officials conveying information via informal leaks (so as to maintain deniability), no official statement has been released regarding this reduction in force. Instead, all mainstream media reporting cites the same undisclosed document that allegedly contains readiness data. Nevertheless, these numbers are probably more indicative of the overall recruiting crisis that has affected the US military for years. 

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: As the loss of free speech in Canada has reached disturbing levels by American standards, most American states are not far behind with regards to the quiet rule-changing of existing criminal code that makes millions of citizens felons overnight. However, the specific tactics and legalisms used to subjugate Canadian citizens can also serve as a litmus test for impending legal trickery within the USA. For instance, the methods used to financially target participants of the Canadian Trucker protests have been considered by American companies seeking to target firearms retailers. Moving into the election season more financial targeting of not just high-profile political opponents, but lower level dissidents is likely, as evidenced by the continual arrests, prosecutions, and ongoing surveillance of J6 participants. This is especially important to consider as in the United States, much of the targeting of taxpayers may originate from the desires of government/elites, but in practicality is enacted by private companies acting on the behalf and/or wishes of the federal regime. This already is a matter of routine among platforms like Facebook/Meta when it comes to speech. However, much more serious targeting can (and is likely to) occur as the social/political/economic situation in the US deteriorates closer to th