S2 Underground

//The Wire//1830Z February 26, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: NORWEGIAN CRUISE SHIP QUARANTINED DUE TO CHOLERA OUTBREAK.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Mauritius: A Norwegian cruise ship has been quarantined in the Port of Mauritius following a cholera outbreak onboard the vessel. The M/V NORWEGIAN DAWN has been quarantined in port until further notice. Though the origin of the outbreak is unknown at this time, several of the passengers reporting illness traveled to South Africa earlier this month.

Red Sea/HOA: Several telecom providers have begun to report issues regarding undersea communications cables in the Red Sea. As of this report, only single-source reporting is available, which suggests that a total of four cables have been impacted over the past few months. AC: As cable disruptions are extremely common due to natural seismic events on the seafloor, the timing of such outages is critical. So far, the Jerusalem Post is the only media outlet reporting on this issue, which (aside from being a highly questionable source in its own right), did not indicate whether or not this is a new issue, or a culmination of incidents since the start of the Red Sea Crisis.

Houthi forces have made direct threats to sever these communications cables, however it is not clear as to if they are actually capable of tampering with or targeting undersea cables in the Red Sea. Additionally, in a time when covert operations and false-flag events have become extremely common, judgement is probably best reserved for when more information becomes public. On the other hand, due to the nature of the incident, independent investigation is not likely.

-Homefront-

Washington D.C. – Yesterday a uniformed active duty Air Force service member self-immolated outside the Israeli embassy in a self-described act of protest in support of Palestine. The service member, later identified as Aaron Bushnell, later died at a local hospital. No information regarding his rank or unit has been confirmed by defense officials yet.

In the western United States, no new information has been released regarding the recent unidentified high-altitude balloon incident. Pentagon officials continue to assess that the balloon was “likely” a civilian craft, but zero evidence has been provided to back up these claims, whereas the culmination of information as released so far indicates the contrary. So far, no one has come forward to claim the balloon or its payload.

On the economic front, over the past few weeks financial observers have noticed strategic financial moves among many elites. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dillon dumped $150 million in JPM stock last week, his largest sell-off of his own company’s stock to date. Jeff Bezos has sold $8.5 billion of his Amazon portfolio, and Mark Zuckerberg has sold $428 million of his Meta holdings. In 2023 Q4, Bill Gates sold off 65% of his entire financial portfolio, worth approximately $80 billion. The Walton family also sold $4.5 billion of their Walmart holdings after the closing bell on Friday.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: No financial expertise is needed to assess the strategic impacts of billionaires dumping significant investments all within a few weeks of each other. On the other hand, the field of economics is more complicated than a single soundbite; For instance, Bill Gate’s asset sell-off could be largely restructuring and consolidation, not necessarily a “dump”. However, these financial moves are an indicator of something; figuring out the exact details of which will largely be speculative.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire Weekly Rollup//February 18-24, 2024//

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Red Sea/HOA: This week marked significant escalations in the region following the most successful targeting of a commercial vessel by Houthi forces so far during the Red Sea Crisis. Sunday night, the M/V RUBYMAR was struck with multiple projectiles, forcing the crew to abandon ship. Originally the vessel was reported as being sunk, but several days after the strikes, imagery obtained by the BBC confirms that the vessel is still afloat, albeit barely. The imagery confirms that severe flooding has caused severe trim to stern, so much so that her deck is awash at the base of the accommodation superstructure. Additionally, her bulbous bow was almost completely above the waterline in the photos provided. The RUBYMAR was allegedly towed into port Djbouti where salvage operations continue.

In response to the success of this strike, the next day Houthi forces targeted several other commercial vessels, including one which was delivering humanitarian aid to Yemen. The M/V SEA CHAMPION was struck with at least one Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM), but was able to continue her voyage to the Yemeni port of Aden where she offloaded her cargo of grain. In the same engagement, the M/V NAVIS FORTUNA and the USS LABOON (DDG 58) were also targeted with missiles, the former successfully. An American MQ-9 Reaper drone was also shot down by Houthi forces during the escalation, which marks the second drone downed by Houthi forces since this conflict intensified in October, 2023.

Throughout the week CENTCOM forces have continued daily missile strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen. Very few details of these now-regular strikes have been made public.

-HomeFront-

NY: The revelation of a recent rule change has indicated that potentially tens of thousands of illegal immigrants have been allowed to receive substantial cash payments in addition to the monthly benefits already provided. This follows the announcement of $53 million in prepaid cards being issued to illegal immigrants in NYC, which includes payments of up to $10,000 per illegal immigrant, without any accountability requirements or checking identity documents. AC: Quietly passed last year, the New York Governor’s office changed the eligibility requirements for it’s Safety Net Assistance (SNA) program to include illegal immigrants. Though accountability is virtually nonexistent, city officials estimate that approximately 10% of illegals living in NYC (around 17,000) are receiving benefits through this program.

TX: Border situation continues as before, despite little independent media coverage of the truth on the ground. Events in the vicinity of Eagle Pass have largely developed into politics, with Shelby Park mostly serving as a location for photo opportunities or press events due to the halting of illegal immigration in this very small area.

//The Wire//1500Z February 24, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: NO NEW DETAILS ON BALLOON. CHINESE ILLEGAL ALIEN ENCOUNTERS REACH NEW RECORD IN CA.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Red Sea/HOA: Over the past few days, CENTCOM has intensified “self-defense” targeting of Houthi sites in Yemen. As has become standard, almost zero information is released regarding these strikes, which have now become routine daily events.

-Homefront-

PA: A chemical incident at a pharmaceutical packing plant in Lehigh County resulted in over 50 workers suffering minor injuries. No word yet on what the chemical was, but most of the people affected reported headaches and respiratory problems. The cause of the incident has not been disclosed.

CA: Customs and Border Patrol statistics released last night indicate that the pace at which Chinese immigrants are encountered attempting to cross the border illegally has increased substantially over the past quarter. In one California district there were more Chinese immigrants illegally crossing the southern U.S. border than Mexicans. Newly released data indicates that since October of last year, 21,000 encounters with Chinese nationals were reported, whereas in the same sector only 18,700 Mexicans were encountered. AC: As the overwhelming majority of illegal immigrants no longer originate from Mexico (but rather other Central or South American nations), it is unclear as to how this affects the total numbers. As a reminder, recent DHS testimony before Congress has indicated that over 85% of all illegal encounters result in the illegal alien being released into the United States, rather than being deported.

Washington D.C. – No new information has been released by the Pentagon regarding the possibly hostile aircraft over American soil. Pentagon officials continue to claim that both the origin and the intent of the craft is unknown, yet somehow also assessed to be not a threat. AC: As defense officials seem content with leaking information to mainstream sources so as to maintain deniability, rather than calling press briefings to inform the American people, no mainstream media source has updated their articles on this incident at the time of this report. All MSM reporting is circular, originating from the original CBS report.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: The timing of the announcement of the unidentified balloon is itself a classic deception tactic. Pentagon officials frequently refer to this as “taking out the trash”, in other words releasing a stack of unimportant press statements on a Friday afternoon when reporters are ready to go home for the weekend (and therefore are assumed to be more complacent than usual). Sneaking critically important reports into the “garbage” and hoping that no one notices has been a tactic utilized heavily by various federal agencies for decades. Releasing critical reports on a Friday afternoon also allows for politicians to have more leeway in providing statements, as the expectation of “traveling” or weekend life enables key figures to hide more effectively from the press.

Releasing this info on a Friday afternoon also decreases the potential citizens that could observe the craft, and pinpoint it’s location. As most people would be enjoying the start of their weekend, and with nightfall approaching, the timing of the report ensured that by the time any citizen was able to visually see the craft, it would be long out to sea and out of sight. As a reminder, the DoD never released any updated or high-resolution photos of the initial string of spy balloons, only low-res or ground-based photos were provided to taxpayers. 

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z February 23, 2024//

//PRIORITY//

//BLUF: UNIDENTIFIED HIGH-ALTITUDE BALLOON SPOTTED OVER WESTERN USA.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-Homefront-

USA: This afternoon, CBS News leaked a report indicating that the U.S. military was tracking an unidentified high-altitude balloon over the western United States. According to CBS, Pentagon officials stated that the origin and intentions of the balloon were unknown, but that the object was “not at threat”. AC: It is unclear as to how an unknown object can be confirmed to not be a threat.

Directly quoting the initial CBS report, “One official said the balloon was over Colorado earlier in the day and was expected to be over Georgia by Friday night. The official said the balloon appeared to be made of Mylar and had a small cube-shaped box, about two feet long on each side, hanging below it.”

Independent analysis conducted is as follows: No NOTAMs were issued to indicate the position of the craft. A total of three ham radio balloons were aloft over the western USA at the time of initial reports, but all three were transmitting their positions openly as required by the FAA. Independent analysis of raw weather radar returns yielded no reliable results, and weather modeling indicated an eastern track was most likely, with prevailing winds carrying the craft over Georgia within a few hours.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Though the fog of war is challenging to work within at the moment, in the interest of expediency (and weighed against the potential to be alarmist) it would be prudent to assume that this event is somehow linked to the mass cyber events that occurred yesterday.

Though this is purely speculative and bases heavy analysis on very few details, if this balloon is Chinese in origin, previous balloon incidents strongly indicate that the balloon has been in U.S. airspace for hours, at least since the cyber events yesterday. Without question, if this is indeed a Chinese balloon that takes many days to transit the United States, this would mean that the federal regime knew about this balloon (which was likely already over U.S. soil), during the cyber events yesterday.

If the description of the balloon provided to CBS is accurate, this device (while much smaller than previous balloons) is far too large to comprise of any legitimate civilian technology. The payload consisting of a two-foot cube shaped object is significantly larger than any normal civilian payload for research purposes. Additionally, as all civilian high-altitude balloons are required by the FAA to transmit identification data on pre-determined frequencies, the de facto admission that this has not been done strongly indicates a more nefarious use in line with previous spy balloon sightings. Granting even more weight to the potential nefariousness of this craft is that, in the CBS report, the balloon is reportedly traveling at an altitude of over 40,000 ft. At this altitude, any hobby or research devices will need a plethora of special permissions in order to deconflict airspace and not present hazards to aviation. Weather balloons routinely fly higher, but are much smaller and also openly transmit their position.

Though it is impossible to know for certain, and it is easy to over-assess the potential threats, the most dangerous potential COA would be for this to be the initial stages of more complex activity. Historically, airspace violations are quite serious events with dire diplomatic implications. However (if confirmed to be foreign), this is more likely a probing action (possibly coupled with cyber events) intended to both collect intelligence and test responses.

In any case, the chances of these multiple events occurring nearly simultaneously are very remote. Likewise, as distasteful as it may be to admit, the U.S. Department of 

//The Wire//2130Z February 23, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: NO NEW INFO ON YESTERDAYS CELL OUTAGE. FARMER PROTESTS CONTINUE IN EUROPE.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Europe: Farmer protests continue as before, expanding in both the severity of disruptions caused and the number of nations affected. So far, major protests are underway in 14 European nations, with smaller, localized demonstrations of solidarity being reported in almost every nation in Europe. Major actions appear to largely be concentrated in France, the Netherlands, Spain, Ireland, and Poland.

Red Sea/HOA: Yesterday, the M/V ISLANDER was attacked with two Anti-Ship Ballistic Missiles (ASBMs), causing damage and injuring one crew member. The vessel is continuing its voyage. No further details have been released by CENTCOM regarding this attack.

-Homefront-

USA: Information regarding yesterday’s mass cellular outage remains scarce. There have been few public statements from the various entities involved, with unconfirmed rumor mostly driving the public discourse surrounding the outage. Initial theories falsely attributed causation to the solar activity that appeared to coincide with the initial outage; the solar activity had nothing to do with the outage, and did not impact cellular networks in the United States.

Officially, AT&T (the root cause of the outage) has simply stated that the outage was the result of technical error, and not a cyberattack. No further details have been provided.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: More details regarding the cause of yesterday’s cell outage are not likely to be made public. As AT&T has confirmed that the outage was a deliberate action, the list of potential theories regarding the incident more or less boils down to intent. As AT&T has been extremely quiet regarding the cause of the outage, a wide range of possibilities exists; A careless/incompetent technician could have been the cause, or it could have been a deliberate cyberattack that authorities are trying to keep quiet. As a reminder, many substantial cyberattacks of recent memory were publicly disclosed as a “user error” at first, before quietly being confirmed as a cyberattack weeks later once the event is out of the press cycle.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1900Z February 22, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: MULTIPLE NATIONWIDE CYBER EVENTS IMPACT USA.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Red Sea/HOA: The BBC has obtained recent imagery indicating the status of the M/V RUBYMAR. The photos confirm that the vessel is not completely sunk, but severe flooding has caused such substantial trim by the stern that her deck is awash at the base of the accommodation superstructure. Likewise, the bulbous bow is almost completely above the waterline. AC: The status of salvage operations is unclear. Though details are very scarce, by last report she is uncrewed and is being towed into port Djbouti.

-Homefront-

USA: This morning many cyber events were reported on a variety of platforms, utilities, and critical infrastructure.

The main cyber event involved a mass cellular outage throughout the majority of the continental United States. The outage initially appears to be largely confined to the AT&T network (and various subsidiaries), but problems were also reported by Verizon users. The cause of this outage is unclear, and it is also not known how (or if) this one event cascaded to impact other industries throughout the day. 

In a possibly separate incident, many pharmacies across the U.S. have reported computer systems being offline, allegedly due to a cyberattack. Specifically targeted is software provided by Change Healthcare, that is used to manage records and fill prescriptions by many pharmaceutical chains throughout the Unites States.

Wells Fargo brokerage users also reported problems accessing their accounts this morning. It is unclear as to if this was related to any of the other cyber events reported so far today.

Occurring nearly simultaneously with the initial cellular outage, an X-class solar flare caused widespread degradation of some radio communications.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: While the direct causes of today’s cyber events are not confirmed at this time, more generally this is likely a culmination of years of mission-creep and doctrine shift among communications networks, which have resulted in not just significant cybersecurity vulnerabilities, but also a crisis of competency. As such it is also important to remember that since most 911 call centers are heavily reliant on commercial telecom networks, many emergency services were offline for several hours. Also important to consider for the future is that adversaries conducting an attack will likely time the attack to coincide with a period of natural radio degradation (such as during a natural solar event). This compounds the degradation of communications, and ensures that maximum effectiveness is achieved. Though fortunately, this particular solar flare did not degrade radio comms as much as it could have.

Conversely, the timing of such a substantial collection of cyber events is suspicious. Last week, Congress raised the alarm regarding an unidentified threat, specifically related to Russia’s attempt to emplace weapons in space that can be used to target communications satellites. As no hard details of this threat have been revealed, and this story has disappeared from all mainstream media, this was likely an attempt to force more funding through Congress for Ukraine. Consequently, the possibility must be considered that these cyber events could have a variety of causes: Deliberate cyberattack by an adversary, gross incompetency on the part of a telecom company, or a false-flag attack intended to increase funding all are equally likely theories until more details are made public.

Admin Note: As announced on various social media platforms, the GhostNet stopgap communications plan that we have developed was activated during this crisis, and functioned as designed. Though far from perfect (and a work-in-progress), this system was intended to ease the

//The Wire//2030Z February 21, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: GOVERNMENT DISSOLVED IN GUINEA. RED SEA ATTACKS CONTINUE.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Guinea: Yesterday the ruling military junta dissolved the entire government, ordering all governmental ministers to surrender their passports. The borders of Guinea have also reportedly been closed as the ruling junta seeks to consolidate power. AC: Though no reason was provided for this change of stance, it is not entirely unexpected for a nation operating in a state of military coup for over two years. Guinea’s main national contribution to the world is in the form of natural resources; Iron and Bauxite ore are the main mineral exports, along with Diamonds and Gold.

Red Sea/HOA: Houthi forces posted a video online last night, strongly indicating that they have captured an American Remus 600 Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV) in the waters off the coast of Yemen. This underwater drone is reportedly one of the most sophisticated technologies developed for the U.S. Navy.

In the southern Red Sea, Houthi attacks on commercial shipping remain constant. Overnight, one as-yet-unidentified vessel was targeted successfully with unknown munitions. UKMTO has issued a warning to commercial vessels, highlighting the threat of loitering munitions in the southern Red Sea.

-Homefront-

USA: The Biden regime has announced the cancellation of an additional $1.2 billion of student debt for approximately 153,000 people. To date, various federal entities have already canceled (or technically, transferred to the American taxpayer) over $138 billion of student loan debt from approximately 3.9 million individuals.

NY: The revelation of a recent rule change has indicated that potentially tens of thousands of illegal immigrants have been allowed to receive substantial cash payments in addition to the monthly benefits already provided. This follows the announcement of $53 million in prepaid cards being issued to illegal immigrants in NYC, which includes payments of up to $10,000 per illegal immigrant, without any accountability requirements or checking identity documents.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Though quietly passed last year, the New York Governor’s office changed the eligibility requirements for it’s Safety Net Assistance (SNA) program to include illegal immigrants. Previously, this was a special welfare program specifically designed to provide cash payments to individuals who did not meet eligibility requirements for other programs. Though accountability is virtually nonexistent, city officials estimate that approximately 10% of illegals living in NYC are receiving benefits through this program. As the total estimated number of illegals residing in NYC is approximately 173,000, this means that an estimated 17,300 illegals are receiving funding through this program. Though not surprising in the slightest, the overwhelming funding provided to illegal immigrants in New York has become staggering when compared to the average salary of taxpaying Americans.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1930Z February 20, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: HOUTHI FORCES INTENSIFY ATTACKS, SHOOT DOWN AMERICAN DRONE.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Red Sea/HOA: Significant escalations in the region have taken place following the successful attack on the M/V RUBYMAR with many commercial vessels being targeted by a variety of Houthi weapons systems. The following is a summary of the vessels targeted yesterday: 

M/V SEA CHAMPION – Struck with one Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM). Minor damage reported.

M/V NAVIS FORTUNA – Struck with kamikaze drone. Minor damage reported.

USS LABOON (DDG 58) – Attacked with ASCM, which was successfully intercepted. No damage reported.

Additionally, CENTCOM reports various un-named coalition vessels engaging a total of 10 kamikaze drones in the region overnight.

Last night, Houthi forces reported successfully shooting down an American MQ-9 Reaper drone off the coast of Yemen. Though CENTCOM has not officially confirmed the shootdown, local Yemenis have posted photos of the debris on various social media platforms. AC: This morning, CENTCOM did make a reference to destroying a SAM site for the first time in this conflict. However, this conveniently leaves out the reasoning behind locating the SAM site likely being the result of an MQ-9 being shot down.

-Homefront-

NY: A large nationwide trucking protest has begun to become more organized. Various independent truckers are organizing to boycott deliveries to New York following the perceived injustice of the outcome of Donald Trump’s civil trial. AC: This protest officially started yesterday, but due to the media blackout of this demonstration it has taken time for many truckers to hear about it. The specific goals of this protest are to deliberately cause shortages of resources and increase prices for New Yorkers.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Few details remain regarding the status of the M/V RUBYMAR, the vessel that was reportedly sunk Sunday night, and thus leading to the current escalation of the conflict in the Gulf of Aden. Though the crew reported both taking on water and uncontrolled fires before abandoning ship, it is unclear as to if the vessel has finished sinking or if salvage operations will attempt to be conducted. As the crew has abandoned ship, for simplicity the M/V RUBYMAR will be referred to as ‘sunk’ until more information becomes available.

Regarding the probable shootdown of an American drone off the coast of Yemen, this could temporarily increase concerns for commercial aviation throughout the region in addition to the merchant shipping woes. This is the second recent shootdown of an American drone in the region, with Houthi forces shooting down another American MQ-9 back in November of last year. As the MQ-9 platform is a high-flying asset, the weapons system used to target this drone would also certainly be capable of targeting commercial aviation. This is further reinforced by CENTCOM’s announcement of striking a SAM site. It is almost certain that the asset used to target the drone was an SA-6 GAINFUL surface-to-air missile system, the same asset used to down the first MQ-9 in November.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1800Z February 19, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: HOUTHI FORCES SINK SHIP IN BAB EL MANDEB STRAIT.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: Western mainstream media reporting over the past 24 hours has suggested that Egypt may be preparing for the reception of Palestinian refugees. Planet Labs satellite imagery was provided to media groups that indicates a large swath of land is being cleared in Egypt, just across the border from Rafah. Egyptian authorities have denied these claims, as the policy of strategic ambiguity precludes Egypt from making a de facto admission that the expulsion of Palestinians into Egypt might be possible. AC: Though it is challenging to verify anything that is provided to media groups, the quiet preparation of emergency refugee camps in Egypt is very likely following the Israeli announcement of imminent operations in Rafah. Though the politics of the events in Gaza cloud the situation on the ground, it is clear that Egypt has always considered the expulsion of Palestinians into Egypt as a possibility, and if these preparations are confirmed, these actions to prepare for such strongly indicates that Egypt may believe this worst-case scenario is very likely.

Red Sea/HOA: Houthi attacks on commercial shipping became more serious overnight following the sinking of a commercial vessel. Overnight, Houthi forces struck the M/V RUBYMAR (a Belize-flagged bulk cargo carrier) with multiple cruise missiles. The crew abandoned ship shortly after the strike. This morning, the RUBYMAR was reported as being sunk in the Bab el Mandeb Strait. AC: This marks the first (publicly-disclosed) successful sinking of a commercial ship by Houthi forces so far in this conflict.

This morning, Houthi attacks continued as another vessel was targeted in a similar manner. An as-yet-unidentified vessel reported multiple explosions in close proximity to the vessel in the Gulf of Aden.

-Homefront-

TX: Border situation continues as before, despite little independent media coverage of the truth on the ground. Events in the vicinity of Eagle Pass have largely developed into politics, with Shelby Park mostly serving as a location for photo opportunities or press events due to the halting of illegal immigration in this very small area.

Relations among defense forces in the region remain tepid as politics becomes more intertwined with the border protection mission. On Friday, Texas announced a $131 million plan to build a Forward Operating Base (FOB) near the southern U.S. border. FOB EAGLE BASE CAMP will be completed in September, and will reportedly be a larger version similar camps already in place throughout the region. AC: Though on paper this makes sense, creating a FOB virtually identical to those found overseas is mildly concerning for some. Using the term “FOB” to describe this base is almost certainly a political move to increasingly drive a wedge between the state and federal governments, or at the very least undermine and chip away at the perceived control of the federal State by using language and terminology that reinforces the military tone of illegal immigration being treated as an invasion.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Houthi forces, likely emboldened by their public sinking of a commercial ship, will likely continue targeting vessels in a similar manner. It has become clear via the daily successful targeting of commercial shipping that OPN PROSPERITY GUARDIAN is hopelessly ineffective in providing missile defense for commercial ships. U.S. Navy forces constantly report the ‘successful strike’ of allegedly staged missiles and drones, yet the only limiting factor for the Houthis seems to be simply the lack of western vessels willing to take the risk of transiting the Red Sea. 

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire Weekly Rollup//February 11-17, 2024//

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: Israel began the military campaign to gain control of the city of Rafah, along the Egyptian border. This operation, while slow to begin, has so far largely comprised of large bombing campaigns. In northern Israel tensions with Lebanon remain elevated following the Israeli targeting of Hezbollah observation posts and rocket launch sites in southern Lebanon. These strikes have become more routine in response to Hezbollah rocket attacks, and when combined with the large buildup of Israeli troops in the north, questions remain as to whether or not Israel will commit to opening up yet another front while the majority of IDF soldiers remain committed to operations in Gaza.

Red Sea/HOA: This week American forces in the region stepped up alleged “self defense” targeting of Houthi facilities and equipment. Anti-Ship Cruise Missiles (ASCMs), Unmanned Surface Vehicles (USVs), and various Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAVs) have been the primary targets engaged daily. The Houthi targeting of commercial shipping has continued as before, with the handful of commercial ships still committed to transiting the Bab el Mandeb Strait being routinely targeted by Yemeni forces. An approximate average of one or two ships transiting the region per day have been successfully struck by Houthi cruise missiles. AC: As routine combat operations seem to have begun under the guise of “self defense” strikes, it is important to remember that the U.S. has not declared war on Yemen or the Houthi forces controlling the majority of the country (and the government sector). 

Europe: This week sentiments among various nations have increasingly indicated the desire for the Gaza war to reach a conclusion. Wednesday, French President Macron voiced objection to the Israeli campaign in Gaza in a phone call with PM Netanyahu. Specifically, Macron stated that France’s position was one of firm opposition to the current events in Gaza, and that restricting the access of aid groups to “a population in an absolute humanitarian emergency was unjustifiable”. 

This strongly-worded rhetoric follows recent rulings suggesting Dutch opposition to Israeli actions in Gaza. On Monday, a Dutch court of appeals ruled against the Dutch government, halting the export of F-35 aircraft parts to Israel, due to the legal implications of doing so. Specifically, the court ruled that “It is undeniable that there is a clear risk the exported F-35 parts are used in serious violations of international humanitarian law”. AC: Though this is merely one court’s opinion, this is the very first de facto admission by a legal power within a European nation that suggests that violations of humanitarian law are being committed by Israel. This is also the first time that a nation, legal power, or entity that is not affiliated with a pro-Palestinian movement has made these implications, lending more weight to the allegations than claims made by obviously politically motivated entities. President Macron’s statements add some weight to this idea, as he is the only European Head of State to use such strong language in the diplomatic space surrounding Israel. However, Macron’s own reputation (along with the current problems with pro-Palestinian migrants in France, and his potential motivations to satisfy this demographic) lessens the objectivity of his concerns.

Russia: Prison officials in the Yamalo-Nenets correctional district announced the death of Alexei Navalny at the IK-3 penal colony. The circumstances of his death were reportedly sudden, according to officials who state that he died shortly after collapsing. Navalny’s attorney, who spoke with him a couple of days prior, has stated that he appeared to be in good health (considering the conditions of confinement at the facility).