S2 Underground

//The Wire//1600Z February 17, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: CONFLICT CONTINUES IN THE RED SEA. NAVALNY DEATH INCREASES INTL TENSIONS.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Russia: Much consternation abounds concerning the death of Putin critic Alexei Navalny. Pro-Russian sources are quick to point out that Navalny was prosecuted for orchestrating dissent in Russia at the behest of the West (that would be carried out via Navalny’s NGO, which undeniably has strong ties to MI6). Conversely, Western sources cite the obvious fact that, following the assassination of Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin in August of last year, Putin critics seem to be meeting very untimely ends as of late. AC: Though the impacts of Navalny’s death will not really impact the citizens of the United States or Europe, the rhetoric from mainstream sources, clearly planned and orchestrated since Navalny was imprisoned, has been overwhelming. Following the fallout that the impact Tucker Carlson’s interview with Putin has had, it is certain that Navalny’s death will be as his life was: manipulated by the west for cheap political gain. Putin meanwhile, will likely continue consolidating power as he sees fit in order to continue streamlining Russia’s economic, military, and social standing with Asia, the Middle East, and the rest of the world at large.

Red Sea/HOA: This morning, Houthi forces conducted a cruise missile attack against the M/V POLLUX a Panamanian-flagged tanker. CENTCOM reports 3-4 cruise missiles were used to target the vessel.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Continuing the trend, CENTCOM has used increasingly vague language to describe Houthi attacks. Unlike in previous reports, CENTCOM did not state whether or not the POLLUX had been struck, or if the missiles missed their target. CENTCOM only reported that there were no injuries…which is an evasive, non-committal statement that conveniently does not deny that the vessel was hit since most successful strikes do not result in the crew being injured anyway. Meanwhile, cross-referencing CENTCOM’s press releases with UKMTO indicates that only one vessel was targeted in the region within the time period of the CENTCOM report, a vessel that did report being attacked by a missile resulting in “an explosion in close proximity”. Though it is not clear as to if this is indeed the same vessel, this does highlight the potentially diverting and increasingly vague reporting in the region.

Also of note, CENTCOM’s press releases have quietly dropped all references to successful interceptions of Houthi missiles over the past few days. No mention has been made of any successful interceptions for about a week, whereas the announcement of “self-defense strikes” has been a constant. Though this is purely speculative, this could signal a shift in tactics as U.S. Naval forces are unable to provide complete missile defense for themselves or commercial shipping; shifting from defense to offense could be a perceived way to counter Houthi threats. A static target is a lot easier to hit than a cruise missile, so the U.S. may be prioritizing the strike of missiles before they are launched, and relying on Aegis missile defense as the backup plan. The data, however, speaks for itself. Houthi forces regularly successfully target commercial shipping nearly daily.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1600Z February 16, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: RED SEA ATTACKS CONTINUE. NO NEW INFO ON RUSSIAN SPACE THREAT.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Red Sea/HOA: American strikes in Yemen continue, allegedly in self-defense against varying targets in Yemen. Anti-Ship Cruise Missiles (ASCMs), Unmanned Surface Vehicles (USVs), and various Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAVs) have begun to be targeted daily by U.S. forces in the region. Over a dozen various strikes have been reported over the past 24 hours. Threats to shipping continue as Houthi forces target multiple cargo vessels. The M/V LYCAVITOS was attacked with a cruise missile yesterday in the Gulf of Aden, and this morning an as-yet-unidentified vessel also reported being attacked by a cruise missile. AC: As this conflict has settled in for the long haul, the routine nature of attacks results in details being lost. Now, most reporting essentially can be summarized as “ship attacked, minor damage”. No details are ever provided following up with the status of vessels struck with cruise missiles, and no confirmation of the severity of damage is ever disclosed. This desensitization contributes to many people forgetting that one of the largest trade routes in the world is largely closed to western nations aligning with the U.S. or Israel, and that most western trade continues to be re-routed around the continent of Africa.

Russia: This morning, representatives from the Yamalo-Nenets prison district announced the death of Alexei Navalny. Navalny was serving a 19 year sentence in the IK-3 penal colony on charges of extremism. AC: Details of the circumstances of his death are predictably suspicious, with prison officials indicating that he collapsed and died. As Navalny was one of Putin’s most high-profile critics, and having survived multiple assassination attempts already, his death is not unexpected.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. – No new information regarding the “serious national security threat” claimed by Congress. Unofficially, the story has changed several times. Currently, officials claim that the threat is related to Russia’s ambitions to target American satellites in orbit, and is not related to any active capability or threat. However, rumors originating from Congress maintain that the threat is related to nuclear weapons, or something more serious than counter-satellite capabilities. AC: Clearly there are too many deliberate and open lies floating around to determine what the situation really is. This again leads to increased scrutiny as it becomes clear that the threat likely is not really a threat, but rather strategic defense technologies that have been a factor for a long time.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: As a reminder, the United States has not declared war against Yemen, or the Houthi forces controlling most of the country. The U.S. State Department has labeled the Houthi-controlled government as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist group…but not a Foreign Terrorist Organization (the most severe categorization). This means the U.S. has slowly begun conducting routine combat operations in a nation that the United States is not at war with, but most importantly, the justification for these “self defense strikes” is diplomatically dubious. For instance, OPN PROSPERITY GUARDIAN is not on the list of approved combat operations that will rate a Global War on Terrorism Expeditionary Medal for the service members involved in the conflict; this is a de facto admission that this operation is not a part of the few remaining facets of the GWOT, which in turn is a strong indicator of the unique diplomatic situation (and legitimacy concerns) that have become more of a problem now that this conflict that has slowly become an enduring issue.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1800Z February 15, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: HOUSE INTEL COMMITTEE CLAIMS SERIOUS SECURITY THREAT.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: Growing international opposition to Israel’s actions in Gaza has begun to become more public over the past few days. French President Macron urged PM Netanyahu in a phone call to end the war in Gaza, citing the overwhelming civilian casualties caused by the conflict. This follows increased personality tensions that have strained the relationship between the White House and PM Netanyahu over the past few weeks.

-HomeFront-

MO: Yesterday a shooting at the Superbowl parade in Kansas City left 1 dead and 21 wounded. AC: Though details are minimal, initial reporting suggests this incident may have been a gang-related shooting between multiple suspects, with the large casualty count being related to the shooting taking place within the parade crowd itself. However, as the suspects (or rather, the three black males that were arrested at the scene) have not yet been officially identified, many details remain unconfirmed.

Washington D.C. – Yesterday the Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee released a statement indicating that all members of Congress had been briefed on a serious national security threat, and that the President has been urged to declassify documentation regarding this unknown threat.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Unofficially, the story has been leaked to the press as being related to Russia’s ambitions to obtain undisclosed space-based strategic weapons. All details beyond this (and probably including this) are extremely unconfirmed. Currently, almost all diplomacy seems to be conducted via leaks; we rarely see a press statement from any government entity confirming anything, as leaks to the press offer the executive branch the chance of plausible deniability. All policy decisions by the Biden regime are usually leaked to the press first, to test the waters with the general public. As such, since there are no official details to work with, grand dissertations are being written by various pundits in response to what is, as of yet, a rumor.

Regarding the declassification of documents, the Office of the President is not the only entity that can declassify sensitive information. The Original Classification Authority (i.e. the organization that classified the information in the first place) can also declassify intelligence reporting. There are also other varying means of classifying intelligence reports to lower levels, by omitting sources and methods. This is quite easy, and routinely done in all joint or coalition environments. However, there is a reason as to why the emergency declassification of intelligence reports is rarely done (even though there are many procedures for it): If the threat is real, military force is used to defend against it, full stop.

The mere effort of declassifying something is a strong indicator that a citizenry would NOT approve of preemptive strikes, and would NOT see Russia’s actions as a direct threat…and therefore need to be convinced of the necessity of military action. This alone is a strong indicator that this alleged threat is not a real characterization of an imminent threat. Also considering that the United States military freely allows multiple airspace violations over US soil, with zero repercussions (not even sanctions or the slightest diplomatic complaint), it’s overwhelmingly likely that this “threat” is not direct or imminent in any way, but rather a strategic threat that is more abstract.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1700Z February 14, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: IRANIAN PIPELINE EXPLODES. ISRAEL CONTINUES ACTIONS ON MULTIPLE FRONTS.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: Attacks on various U.S. military bases in Iraq and Syria have increased over the past few weeks, following heightened tensions in the region. Over the past few days, POL facilities in Syria (such as the al-Omar oil field), along with adjacent U.S. military bases have been sporadically targeted with rockets. These attacks have ebbed and flowed in response to events in Israel, or in response to U.S. targeting in Yemen.

In Iran, a major natural gas pipeline exploded in Borujen last night. AC: No details have been provided regarding the cause of the explosion, but considering the context of the multiple wars in the region, this was almost certainly an attack and/or sabotage conducted by Israel or the United States, both of which have a long history of these types of actions within Iran. Additionally, some social media accounts in Iran are claiming that a second explosion has occurred at a pipeline in Khorramabad, but this cannot be independently verified with any confidence at this time.

In Israel, the bombing campaign against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon continues, along with sporadic strikes in the vicinity of Rafah. In the south, the Palestinian Red Crescent has reported that they have not received any supplies due to roads being blocked by ongoing protests by Israeli civilians demonstrating against sending humanitarian aid to Gaza.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. – DHS Secretary Mayorkas has been impeached by the House for issues related to the border crisis. AC: This impeachment will now head to the Senate where it likely will not pass.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: The situation on the ground with regards to humanitarian aid in Gaza is very fluid. Egyptian authorities report trucks have made it through from their side, but it’s not clear as to how many trucks are actually making it to aid distribution centers. This has been a common struggle to determine throughout this conflict so far, as the demand for the truth of the situation on the ground is not able to outweigh the information operations that have become exceptionally overwhelming.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1700Z February 13, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: FOREIGN AID SPENDING BILL PASSES U.S. SENATE. PROTESTS CONTINUE IN EUROPE.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: Israel continues preparations for operations in Rafah as leaflet drops alongside bombing operations increase in the region. However, due to the location of this border city, there are very few locations for citizens (many of which are already refugees from Gaza City) to evacuate to, raising questions of what comes next.

Red Sea/HOA: The vessel attacked yesterday by Houthi forces has been identified as the M/V STAR IRIS, a Greek-flagged bulk cargo carrier. AC: Details of this attack have been few and far between, compared to previous reports, but CENTCOM did confirm that the two cruise missiles targeting the vessel did result in minor damage, but the vessel is under her own power and continuing her voyage.

Europe: Food shortages continue to cause issues for citizens throughout the continent as widespread protests continue. As before, these shortages are largely the result of a combination of truck drivers protesting by not delivering food to certain grocery store chains, as well as the physical blocking of trade routes and border checkpoints.

-HomeFront-

USA: The impending Israeli invasion of Rafah has reignited protests and demonstrations in the usual cities; mostly Seattle, New York, Washington D.C. etc.

Washington D.C. – In a late-night session, the Senate passed the hotly-debated $95 billion spending bill for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. The bill passed with overwhelming bipartisan support after provisions for funding to counter illegal immigration at the southern US border were removed. The bill now heads to the House for a vote. AC: If passed, this bill nearly doubles the entirety of US tax dollars sent to Ukraine. American taxpayers have sent approximately $113 billion in purely cash payments to Ukraine so far during this war, a figure which does not include hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of military hardware.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Though very clearly the demonstrations in Europe are intended to reduce the impact of governance on food production, perhaps contradictorily, food shortages are beginning to become a problem for many throughout more population-dense locations in Europe.

It is important to note that demonstrators are not directly targeting all trade routes, but rather choosing to demonstrate at distribution centers and grocery stores that have become involved in the politics of the climate agenda. This includes preventing the delivery of certain products from certain nations, which negatively impact local agricultural production. For instance, farmers in Spain have been observed destroying truckloads of tomatoes from Morocco as these shipments have been directly related to the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), which has promoted cheap imports and increased taxes on local production and thus the main reason for the continent-wide protests.

However, the second and third order effects of these demonstrations, in a world where the globalism of trade is the standard, are likely impacting logistics in unintended ways. As demonstrated during the COVID era, food shortages are impossible to predict due to the effects of relying on extremely complex global markets. Virtually zero food in Europe is produced locally to where it is sold. For instance, a prepackaged salad can contain lettuce from Spain, cheese from the Netherlands, tomatoes from Italy, olives from Greece, and so on. This results in complicated problems when a single border checkpoint is impacted, or when a single freight truck is delayed.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1700Z February 12, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: ISRAEL BEGINS BOMBING CAMPAIGN IN RAFAH. SECDEF AUSTIN HOSPITALIZED AGAIN.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Netherlands: This morning, a Dutch court of appeals ruled against the Dutch government, halting the export of all F-35 parts to Israel. Per the court’s ruling, the court found that “It is undeniable that there is a clear risk the exported F-35 parts are used in serious violations of international humanitarian law”. The Dutch government has already filed an appeal of this ruling.

Middle East: Israel begins large-scale bombing operations in Rafah. Combat actions in the north have also increased. Israeli bombing of targets in Lebanese border regions has intensified following weeks of slowly increasing attacks into Lebanon. Hezbollah continues to conduct rocket attacks deep into Israel, as week as regular skirmishes and engagements of Israeli positions and observation posts along the border. In Gaza, the overall situation for the civilian populace is deteriorating severely.

Red Sea/HOA: Houthi targeting continues as before. Last night a commercial vessel was reportedly targeted with two cruise missiles in the Bab el Mandeb Strait. No further information on the success of this attack at this time.

United Kingdom: Following the withdrawal of the HMS DIAMOND from the OPN PROSPERITY GUARDIAN mission, maintenance issues continue to plague the Royal Navy as the HMS PRINCE OF WALES (R09) fails to participate in NATO exercises off the coast of Norway. The PRINCE OF WALES herself is a backup, intended to replace the HMS QUEEN ELIZABETH (R08) after she suffered propeller shaft problems and therefore was unable to participate in naval exercises. AC: At this point 100% of the Royal Navy aircraft carrier fleet is unable to deploy due to maintenance issues. These two aircraft carriers also represent two-thirds of all aircraft carriers in Europe, with France’s CHARLES DE GAULLE being the only other true aircraft carrier operational throughout the continent.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. – SECDEF Lloyd Austin has transferred command to his Deputy, Kathleen Hicks following another emergency hospitalization, allegedly due to a “bladder issue”. Austin remains in a critical care unit at Walter Reed.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Though seemingly unimportant, the Dutch ruling to ban the export of F-35 parts is the very first tentative sanction against Israel, from a European nation. The circumstances of this ruling (i.e. the undeniable civilian casualties) have resulted in one of the first official actions to admit what is going on in Gaza, that is not affiliated with any Palestinian movement or political stance. Previous efforts to counter Israel (such as the actions of the International Court of Justice, as per the lawsuit brought by South Africa) have largely been ignored by the western world, as these efforts have clearly originated from political regimes supportive of Palestine (and therefore not the most objective pursuit of justice).

As a reminder, over 1 million displaced residents of Gaza City and Khan Younis have been living in large refugee camps near the Egyptian border following Israeli mandates and evacuations ordering locals to displace to “safe zones” in Rafah. Many leaflets dropped by Israeli forces during the war have explicitly and directly ordered locals to flee to areas south of the Wadi Gaza.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire Weekly Rollup//February 4-10, 2024//

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Red Sea/HOA: This week conflict escalated in the form of more substantial attacks, increased U.S. airstrikes in Yemen, and allegedly newly fielded weapons systems. Throughout the week, CENTCOM confirmed U.S. forces regularly engaged Unmanned Surface Vehicles (USVs) that were allegedly being staged for an attack. No additional details were provided regarding this alleged newly-fielded weapons system. On Tuesday, Houthi forces continued their attacks on commercial shipping, targeting two cargo vessels. The M/V STAR NASIA was targeted by several cruise missiles which impacted near the ship causing minor damage. The M/V MORNING TIDE was also targeted with three cruise missiles unsuccessfully.

Middle East: The situation in Gaza, having deteriorated significantly over the past few weeks, has become increasingly more serious following the increase of tensions between Israel and Egypt. These tensions come as Israeli rhetoric increasingly indicates imminent operations in the Philadelphi corridor, on the Egyptian border. Thursday afternoon, Israeli sources announced the commencement of operations in Rafah, ordering the evacuation of the city in advance of the invasion. Similarly in the north, large military “exercises” near the Lebanese border have also exacerbated the situation, and possibly could be an indication of a widening conflict. In response, Egypt has deployed multiple battalions from the 4th Armored Division (of the 3rd Field Army) to the border region.

Europe: Farmer protests continue as before. Including now well over two dozen nations, protests and demonstrations remain highly variable in different locations. In Spain and France, demonstrations are quite kinetic, with police largely not effective in reducing the impact of protesters actions.

Switzerland: A 32-year-old Iranian asylum applicant armed with an ax held 15 people hostage on a train in Yverdon Wednesday night. After several hours of negotiation, the assailant was shot by police breaching the train. No hostages were injured during the ordeal.

-HomeFront-

CA: Early Wednesday morning a USMC CH-53E Super Stallion helicopter went missing in transit from Creech Air Force Base in Nevada to Marine Corps Air Station Miramar. SAR efforts were challenging due to weather conditions and the rugged terrain in the vicinity of the aircraft’s last reported position. Thursday, rescue teams located the crash site in Pine Valley, and recovered the remains of all 5 crew members. No further details have been provided on the cause or exact location of the crash.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: In 2024, a “red line” issued by an Arab state doesn’t mean too much, but the Egyptian response to the situation in Rafah will largely be dependent on Israel’s actions. Egyptian forces already have deployed a few dozen tanks to the border region, but there are few indications that Egypt seeks to initiate conflict, despite previous claims. However, as the US has dispatched the CIA director to conduct yet another visit to Egypt, the arrival of the harbinger of nothing good is likely to increase tensions as intended.

A complicating factor is the characterization of the tensions between Israel and the Arab world. For instance, on the face, relations with all Arab states suffered due to the Israeli occupation of Gaza. However, behind the scenes (and away from the rhetoric), many Arab states have taken efforts to aid Israel. For instance, a joint project between Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE includes the creation of an overland trade route to allow shipping companies to avoid the Red Sea trade route, and allow for the delivery of cargo to Israel. Over the past few days (and very quietly), cargo vessels have been observed leaving Port Said in Egypt, and delivering 

//The Wire//1630Z February 10, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: ISRAEL PREPARES FOR INVASION OF RAFAH, EGYPT RESPONDS BY POSTURING.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: Israel continues to prepare for large scale combat operations in Rafah. In response, Egypt has deployed multiple battalions from the 4th Armored Division (of the 3rd Field Army) to the border region. Israeli forces also continue to stage in the North, and operations continue in Gaza City and Khan Younis as before.

Red Sea/HOA: The U.S. continues to conduct (now) routine strikes in Yemen, allegedly targeting cruise missiles readying to launch, and alleged Uncrewed Surface Vehicles (USVs). Yemeni attacks against commercial shipping have waned over the past couple of days as most cargo bound for western ports has diverted from the region. Local traffic, or traffic bound for ports not affiliated with the US or western Europe, remains unaffected. However, more direct attacks on US Navy forces in the region have increased as Yemeni forces take advantage of any targets of opportunity that they deem to be valid for engagement.

Far East: Chinese airspace incursions continue over the Taiwan Strait as Taiwanese Defense Forces detect 8 reconnaissance balloons in Taiwanese airspace. This continues the slow, but steady increase in Chinese operations in the vicinity of Taiwan.

-HomeFront-

TX: Border crisis continues as before. Despite a lack of mainstream media coverage, the planned demonstrations in the vicinity of the southern US border have been ongoing for several days. The main effort has been via the “Take Our Border Back” convoy, which has made several stops at varying venues in the border region. 

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Despite the claims to the contrary, it is unlikely that Egypt will take any deliberate action (beyond posturing) unless the border itself is breached (which is unlikely to happen). Israel will likely take some time to prepare for operations in Rafah, which will also stretch thin forces already committed to Gaza City, Khan Younis, and the West Bank and northern border region with Lebanon.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2230Z February 9, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: SITUATION IN GAZA DETERIORATING. FARMER PROTESTS CONTINUE.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: The situation in Gaza, having deteriorated significantly over the past few weeks, has become increasingly more serious following the increase of tensions between Israel and Egypt. These tensions come as Israeli rhetoric increasingly indicates imminent operations in areas close to the Egyptian border. This afternoon, Israeli sources have announced the commencement of operations in Rafah, ordering the evacuation of the city in advance of the invasion. Similarly in the north, large military “exercises” near the Lebanese border have also exacerbated the situation, and possibly could be an indication of a widening conflict.

Europe: Farmer protests continue as before. Including now well over two dozen nations, protests and demonstrations remain highly variable in different locations. In Spain and France, demonstrations are quite kinetic, with police largely not effective in reducing the impact of protesters actions. In Italy demonstrations continue consistently, and in Wales demonstrations remain fairly docile as protests begin to get underway.

Switzerland: A 32 year old Iranian asylum applicant armed with an ax held 15 people hostage on a train in Yverdon last night. After several hours of negotiation, the assailant was shot by police breaching the train. No hostages were injured during the ordeal.

-HomeFront-

HI: An earthquake with an estimated magnitude of 6.3 has struck the Big Island. No word yet on any additional concerns.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Though information warfare has become staggering at this point in the war, Israeli intentions to occupy the Philadelphi corridor are quite clear. Following announcements of evacuations being ordered for the city of Rafah this afternoon, it is certain that Israel intends to occupy the city. Both of these events have been described as “red line” issues for Egypt. In the North, indications and warnings are stacking up, pointing to possible Israeli actions in Lebanon. A large buildup of forces has been observed in the north along the border, but it is unclear as to if this is a textbook military deception tactic (possible a Feint, or more likely a Display). Though opening up additional geographically-opposing fronts at a time where the vast majority of Israeli forces are bogged down in urban warfare is not generally in keeping with good military strategy, it is possible that Netanyahu may bite off more than he can chew, with the intent of forcing more direct US involvement. The other possibility is that Israel knows a war with Lebanon and/or Egypt would be utterly devastating, and as such are dangling this threat as a way of obtaining more support. Either way, this is a serious gamble.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1900Z February 8, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: USMC HELICOPTER FOUND IN CALIFORNIA, NO SURVIVORS REPORTED.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: The U.S. conducted multiple airstrikes in Baghdad overnight, targeting senior leadership of local Kataib Hezbollah brigades. This is a continuation of the sporadic strikes that have been conducted in the region since the attack on the US Tower 22 base in Jordan.

Far East: Taiwanese and American tensions with China have escalated following the quiet announcement that the U.S. will permanently station Special Forces troops at observation posts on the islands of Kinmen and Matsu. These troops will be supporting the Taiwanese 101st Amphibious Reconnaissance Battalion.

Europe: Widespread protests continue as before. In Spain, demonstrators have begun blocking distribution centers for grocery store chains affiliated with the climate agenda. This follows protesters in France using agricultural equipment to dig up the pavement in grocery store parking lots that have pledged support for climate policies.

-HomeFront-

CA: The search has concluded for TIGER11, the CH-53E that went down early yesterday morning. Rescue teams have located the crash site in Pine Valley, and have begun recovering the remains of all 5 crew members. No further details have been provided on the cause or exact location of the crash.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Despite much thought to the contrary, Taiwan is not merely one island many miles off the coast of mainland China. Taiwan has claimed several of the very small islands immediately off the coast of the mainland. For instance, Kinmen Island is located in the heart of Weitou Bay, which is host to a major Chinese logistics hub and the nearby city of Xiamen. The Mashan Observation Post (where US Forces are stationed) is literally two miles from the Chinese mainland. For reference, Ellis Island is about a mile from Manhattan. Though this observation post has been operational for many years (as a propaganda broadcast station), the public admittance of a permanent US presence will likely lead to increased tensions in the region.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//