S2 Underground

//The Wire//2130Z January 29, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: THREE U.S. SERVICE MEMBERS KILLED IN NORTHERN JORDAN, DOZENS WOUNDED//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: Yesterday three American service members were killed, and 34 wounded in a kamikaze drone strike on a covert base in northern Jordan. The strike appears to have targeted a tent serving as temporary billeting for transient personnel traveling through the base.

Red Sea/HOA: The fire onboard the M/V MARLIN LUANDA has reportedly been extinguished. The vessel is being escorted by coalition warships as she attempts to make port.

-HomeFront-

TX: No major developments as Texas continues strengthening positions along the border. However, now that the crossing IVO Eagle Pass is largely closed, illegals have been observed bypassing most of the obstacles, crossing illegally into the U.S. just a few miles away from Eagle Pass where there are no barriers or efforts to stop them.

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Analyst Comments: In Jordan, considering there are multiple bases in the region that are host to Special Operations, confusion persists as to the location of the base itself. There are two larger forward operating bases in the region, the more overt of which is Al-Tanf (also called At-Tanf), which is in Syria, approximately 13 miles northwest of the triple point of the Iraqi, Syrian, and Jordanian borders.

The other site is a different Tactical Base, known to the public as Tower 22, located about 15 miles away in Jordan, roughly half a mile inside the border. Officially, CENTCOM has not confirmed the name of the base that was struck, mentioning an unnamed base in “northeast Jordan”, which through process of elimination is almost certainly Tower 22.

Additionally, no independent verification of battle damage will be obtained by open-source satellite imagery as the next Sentinel 2A pass is scheduled for Feb 11. By then, American forces will have repaired or concealed the damage.

In response to the strike, substantial strategic resources have been observed moving into the Middle East theatre. It is certain that the U.S. is planning substantial airstrikes in retaliation for the targeting of At-Tanf. However, the target is less clear. Though impossible to judge at this time, it is possible that this may be the tipping point for the U.S. to conduct strikes in Iran, as several U.S. politicians have openly been advocating for.

Analyst: S2A

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2130Z January 27, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: TRUCKER PROTESTS BEGIN ORGANIZING FOR SOUTHERN U.S. BORDER//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: As the war in Gaza continues, Israel amplifies rhetoric indicating possible actions in Lebanon. Israeli forces have been observed to increase defenses along the northern border with Lebanon over the past couple of months, but it is unclear as to if this is a continuation of previous defensive tactics, or if this is an indicator of a widening conflict. AC: At this point, it’s unlikely that Israel would expand the conflict into Lebanon (yet) whilst being bogged-down and fully committed in Gaza. However, as this conflict has remained one of the most vicious in recent memory, anything goes.

Red Sea/HOA: The fire onboard the M/V MARLIN LUANDA continues. The crew has not abandoned ship, and the general plan appears to be to let the fire burn out as long as more compartments do not become affected. This vessel is reportedly carrying a cargo of aviation fuel, owing to the intensity of the flames as first observed immediately after the strike.

-HomeFront-

TX: AG Paxton has formally requested the DHS to provide proof that the United States actually owns the disputed land along the border in Eagle Pass. Paxton has specifically requested plat maps showing the exact boundaries of the property that the United States allegedly owns.

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Analyst Comments: By far, the situation in Texas is being treated more seriously on the internet and social media than by power-players in real life. Of note, there are protests planned in support of Texas’s border stance, the most notable of which is the Southern Border Convoy which is scheduled to begin on January 29th and transit the Eagle Pass area on February 3rd. So far it’s not clear as to if any demonstrations are planned for locations that would present a high risk of False Falg operations. However, as the southern border is one of the most sensor-dense locations in the United States, prudence and situational awareness is always recommended.

Analyst: S2A

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2230Z January 26, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: TEXAS CONTINUES REINFORCING BORDER. OIL TANKER STRUCK IN GULF OF ADEN.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: Attacks on US bases in Iraq and Syria intensify overnight. AC: In addition to the impacts of the war in Gaza, these attacks are probably in response to Pentagon statements hinting at drawing down forces in Iraq. From Saigon to Kabul, any time a military withdrawal is implied, adversarial forces will seek to capitalize on that perceived weakness to make territorial gains.

Red Sea/HOA: This afternoon, Houthi forces conducted a successful attack on commercial shipping. The M/V MARLIN LUANDA (A British oil tanker) has reportedly suffered catastrophic damage after being struck with multiple cruise missiles in the Gulf of Aden. The vessel is currently on fire.

-HomeFront-

USA: The Biden regime halts all new LNG export licenses. AC: The official reasoning for this is due to climate change, but it is possible this is a political move intended to pressure Texas companies, which provide roughly 25% of all LNG in the US, and transport roughly 50% of the total LNG produced in the US.

TX: So far, a total of 25 Governors have issued statements of support for Texas’s defensive posture at the southern U.S. border. Beyond statements, several Governors have indicated that they will be providing more materiel support to Texas, though the details of this support are ambiguous and possibly related to support already pledged under Operation Lone Star.

The federal government has issued an ultimatum for Texas to comply with the SCOTUS ruling within 24 hours. No further information on this ultimatum at this time.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Despite many statements of support, the concrete actions taken by states in support of Texas are difficult to determine. Many states have already contributed varying military support for the Operation Lone Star mission for years. Consequently, it is challenging to determine if any new actions are being taken, or if any indicators are present that may suggest how seriously politicians are treating this endeavor. For instance, Governor Abbott is not physically located in Texas right now, he is in India. This alone may be an indicator of the seriousness of which a federal response is being considered.

Analyst: S2A

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2230Z January 25, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: TEXAS CONTINUES BORDER POSTURE//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: Tensions mount in Iraq as increased rhetoric indicates a possible change in US posture throughout the region. Rumors persist regarding whether or not the US will be leaving or reducing posture in Iraq following recent political events. These sentiments have been exacerbated following Pentagon officials announcing the creation of working groups to examine the possibility of transitioning coalition efforts to locals.

-HomeFront-

TX: Constitutional crisis continues as several states declare support for Texas’ defensive posture. So far, the Governors of 21 states have issued statements of support for Texas. TXNG forces continue to improve obstacles along the border.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Though tensions are high in Iraq, and US government officials are reportedly reexamining the United States’ future in Iraq, these issues are not new. Consequently, it is possible that this is merely a shakedown operation for Iraqis to obtain more funding in exchange for allowing a continued US presence. Conversely, it is also possible that insurgent groups (such as ISIS, who have seen a quiet resurgence throughout the region following the stagnation of COIN operations over the past few years) have influenced atmospherics enough to impact policy. It is too soon to tell if the US is seriously considering leaving Iraq, at least until more indicators are present regarding the diplomatic situation on the ground.

Analyst: S2A

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2130Z January 24, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: TEXAS REAFFIRMS DEFENSIVE STANCE. MAERSK FAILS ATTEMPT TO RECOMMENCE OPERATIONS IN RED SEA//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Canada: Following a months-long investigation into Justin Trudeau’s actions during the 2022 “Freedom Convoy” trucker protests, the Federal Court of Canada has ruled that Trudeau’s actions were unconstitutional. AC: As a reminder, last September this investigation process revealed falsified intelligence reporting, which intended to falsely indicate the protesters presented a terrorism threat. These documents indicate that the RCMP used falsified data from the Canadian Anti-Hate Network (an NGO) as sourcing for their own investigative reports, which lead to the justification of Trudeau’s invocation of the Emergencies Act to freeze the finances of protesters, along with a myriad of other targeting tactics.

Red Sea/HOA: Two MAERSK vessels attempting to transit the Bab el Mandeb Strait have reversed course following Yemeni attacks. The M/V MAERSK CHESAPEAKE and M/V MAERSK DETROIT (both American flagged, owned, and operated) were attacked with multiple cruise missiles as they attempted to run northbound through the Bab el Mandeb Strait under the escort of US Navy warships.

Far East: DPRK leadership continues to erase references to reunification with South Korea. In addition to removing reunification topics from propaganda websites, open-source satellite imagery indicates North Korea has demolished the famous 30m tall Arch of Reunification in Pyongyang. This move follows months of increased tensions as DPRK leadership has progressively shifted into a more openly-hostile stance with regards to relations with South Korea.

-HomeFront-

TX: TXNG forces continue improving defenses along the southern U.S. border as the Constitutional crisis continues. Today, Governor Abbott issued a statement reaffirming Texas’ Constitutional right to self-defense (which supersedes federal statutes), stating that “The federal government has broken the compact between the United States and the States”.

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Analyst Comments: Though the missiles targeting MAERSK ships either missed or were intercepted successfully by the US Navy, the interception took place only a few hundred meters from the vessels…much too close for comfort for commercial shipping. As such, this does not bode well for the success of US Navy warships attempting to escort convoys through the high-risk areas.

In Texas, the line has been drawn by the State (the seriousness of which cannot be overstated). Now, Texas awaits the federal response, whatever that may be. As expected, this issue has been slow to build, with events suddenly compounding all at once. Texas’ stance, while largely an irritation for federal forces, is much more than a simple political issue and serves as a beacon of resistance for many Americans; the atmospherics of which seem to be lost on federal officials, who are largely oblivious as to the anger/frustrations of average Americans. As American’s frustrations are at a boiling point, issues such as the border crisis may serve as the path-of-least-resistance for other unrelated issues and pent-up frustrations. It is this indefinable factor that requires the utmost care and tact if a larger conflict is to be avoided.

Analyst: S2A

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z January 23, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: TEXAS CONTINUES CURRENT THREAT POSTURE AT BORDER//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Europe: Protests and counter-protests continue on a variety of issues. Anti-government protests remain constant in the Netherlands, Germany, France, Poland, Spain, and Romania. Pro-government counter protests have been observed in limited capacities, with most counter-protests being observed in France.

Red Sea/HOA: Coalition targeting efforts continue in Yemen as Houthi attacks on commercial shipping remain regular. Non-western shipping remains unaffected through the region. Rumors persist regarding the potential for increased military operations in Yemen. AC: Nothing is set in stone, and the motive for stoking the fires of military intervention is always increased during election seasons or times when European leaders are facing domestic problems. However, it is difficult to imagine that anything short of a substantial LSCO would result in the desired effects of freedom of navigation. However, few nations possess the capabilities to conduct such actions. Also, the lack of tact and nuance necessary for power-players to arrive at a clever solution to this problem make it unclear as to what the general plan to mitigate this crisis is.

-HomeFront-

TX: State authorities have issued statements confirming that their posture at the border has not changed following the SCOTUS ruling. Concertina and razor wire remains in place, and TXNG soldiers remain in blocking positions preventing illegal immigration. This afternoon, local reports indicate TXNG forces strengthening their positions and improving obstacles along the border.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Though difficult to verify with any accuracy, commercial shipping companies appear to have established substantial communication and authorization procedures for ships attempting to transit the Red Sea. In direct opposition to US Navy guidance, ships are engaging in an authorization process to streamline the process of obtaining permission to transiting the region. As this crisis develops, cargo companies with billions of dollars on the line are likely not going to accept ambiguity of whether or not their ships are going to be targeted. As such, it’s highly likely that covert corporate communications are being established with Yemeni forces to ensure safe passage for their ships…and encourage complications among their competitors. As military options have proven to be largely ineffective, it is more than likely that private companies are arriving at solutions, skirting diplomatic and military options.

Analyst: S2A

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2130Z January 22, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: SCOTUS RULES AGAINST TEXAS’ ACTIONS TO PREVENT ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Europe: Virgin Atlantic Airways Flight 127 (originally scheduled to depart Manchester, U.K. for New York) was canceled after a boarding passenger looked out their window and noticed four missing screws from the aircraft’s wing. The flight was canceled to allow more time for more thorough maintenance inspections.

Red Sea/HOA: The U.S. Navy has called off the search for the two SEALs that went missing during operations in the region last week. This marks the first American deaths affiliated with the Red Sea Crisis. This comes as initial reports indicate the European Union preparing plans for a Large Scale Combat Operation in Yemen. AC: Though details are very unconfirmed, Yemen’s actions to restrict western trade routes will likely result in some action from European powers. So far OPN PROSPERITY GUARDIAN has largely been a failure, despite limited success in downing Houthi missiles and drones. However, as total security cannot be guaranteed and Yemeni strikes have been effective, western nations have likely been weighing more substantial options since this crisis began.

Far East: Chinese military actions IVO the Taiwan Strait continue. Over the weekend, Taiwan detected 6x Spy Balloons in addition to Chinese aircraft and ships conducting exercises in the region.

-HomeFront-

TX: The U.S. Supreme Court has ruled in favor of the Biden regime, allowing federal agents to remove razor wire on the U.S. southern border. No opinions were provided with this ruling. AC: All eyes are on Texas as citizens await what could be a serious flashpoint. The idea of state’s rights vs. federal rights is obviously a hot-button issue well seated in our nation’s history. As such, this ruling is probably more serious than one may realize at first, being largely representative of sentiments that have been bubbling for decades (possibly longer).

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: While it is unclear as to if a maintenance oversight would have resulted in catastrophic failure aboard flight VS127, the failure of complex systems that may result in catastrophe remains a concern for most. This incident is by no means out of the ordinary in being the latest continuation of long-standing deficiencies in the commercial aviation world. However, as more eyes are being more observant of issues in aviation, it is easy to forget that extremely concerning and slipshod maintenance practices are the industry standard in commercial aviation. Fortunately, more citizens are becoming more situationally aware of the rising risks in commercial aviation, from passengers having to visually inspect their aircraft for missing parts, to the concerning hiring practices of pilots. Consequently, situational awareness is becoming more essential for survival in industries that historically have been working at the level of the barest minimum of competency for decades.

Analyst: S2A

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1830Z January 20, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: CONFLICTS IN GAZA AND RED SEA CONTINUE. US BORDER CRISIS REMAINS TENSE//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Europe: Tensions between the U.K. and Russia increase as Russia plans to halt a 1956 agreement allowing British fishing companies to operate within the Barents Sea. This comes as NATO plans to launch the largest military exercises conducted in Europe in decades, with approximately 90,000 soldiers participating in exercises over the next few months. These exercises are scheduled to begin next week.

Middle East: Conflict in Gaza remains kinetic as before. Independent media coverage falters as censorship quietly increases on social media. Targeting of US military bases in Iraq and Syria increases following high tensions in the region.

Red Sea/HOA: Targeting of western-based shipping remains constant as the US Navy continues to intercept many missiles targeting shipping. Houthi forces in Yemen have announced that Russian and Chinese shipping will not be targeted, and ships from these nations are granted freedom of passage through the Red Sea.

-HomeFront-

TX: State Troopers have begun arresting illegals that cross the border on trespassing charges. This is a substantial change in policy as previously most illegal immigrants entering the US were processed by CBP and released into the US. This move comes as tensions escalate between state and federal forces, following Texas’ seizure of the Eagle Pass border crossing a few weeks ago. AC: As a reminder, the Biden regime issued Texas the ultimatum of withdrawing from the area and allowing CBP agents access to the border so as to facilitate illegal immigration more efficiently. This ultimatum expired yesterday, and while Texas did allow CBP agents access to the adjacent boat launch, Texas is still maintaining control of Eagle Pass.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: As the 2024 election season creeps closer, a palpable increase in information warfare and narrative shaping has been observed across multiple domains. On social media, a slow-speed crackdown on alternative media personalities has been noted on Twitter/X as many conservative influencers report a radical change in analytics on the platform. This appears to largely be centered around journalists’ coverage of the events in Gaza; the censorship of which has taken the textbook approach of waiting until the news stories die down, then censoring personalities once the media spotlight has shifted to another topic. Similarly, many celebrities, pundits, and even political heads of state have observably changed political views and behavioral patterns with little explanation as to the urgency and speed of their narrative shift. Likewise, MSM reporting has taken an observably hostile tone, with one MSNBC “legal expert” floating the idea of Biden launching a preemptive kinetic strike on Mar-a-Lago. The content of rhetoric observed at the WEF has also recently become more openly hostile as powerful non-state actors attempt to counter resistance to their strategic plans. This perceivable increase in hostile rhetoric is almost certainly linked with the upcoming election season. However, as information warfare takes center stage, the discernment of truth will be much more difficult moving into 2024.

Analyst: S2A

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2330Z January 19, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: HOUTHI FORCES BEGIN TARGETING AMERICAN OIL TANKERS.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: Conflict continues in Gaza. Over the past few days, fighting along the northern border with Lebanon has intensified following Israeli raids. Hezbollah has also increased rocket attacks, with the Israeli port city of Haifa being struck with rockets overnight.

Red Sea/HOA: The vessel targeted yesterday in the eastern Gulf of Aden has been identified as the M/V CHEM RANGER, an American-owned tanker vessel. This marks the first deliberate targeting of an American-owned tanker so far in this conflict.

Far East: China continues military drills in the vicinity of the Taiwan Strait, following Taiwanese elections last week.

-HomeFront-

USA: Congress quietly passes a stopgap funding bill to avoid a government shutdown. The funding bill, passed with bipartisan support, will fund the government until March 1.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Information is limited and contradictory as to the damage sustained in attack on the M/V CHEM RANGER. CENTCOM claims that both cruise missiles fired at the vessel missed. Other sources claim that the missiles did hit the vessel, resulting in severe damage. At this time independent verification cannot be conducted to verify either claim.

Analyst: S2A

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2330Z January 18, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: PAKISTAN RETALIATES IN RESPONSE TO IRANIAN STRIKES. ATTACKS ON RED SEA SHIPPING INCREASE IN FREQUENCY.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: In response to Iranian missile strikes, Pakistan strikes targets in Iran. Last night, ISIS forces in Iraq successfully downed an American MQ-9 Reaper near Baghdad. AC: This is likely a power-projection move that may coincide with recent politics in the region. A few days ago, the Iraqi Parliament voted to expel the United States from their nation. Obviously, the U.S. will continue ignoring Iraqi demands to leave (as this debate has come up several times over the 20-year occupation of Iraq). However, this political move (along with the war in Gaza) will likely result in local insurgent groups being incentivized to carry out more substantial attacks than routine harassment engagements.

Red Sea/HOA: Coalition forces continue to strike targets in Yemen. The vessel struck by a Yemeni drone yesterday has been identified as the M/V GENCO PICARDY, an American owned bulk cargo carrier. Today, two separate incidents were reported in the Gulf of Aden. This morning, another American-owned commercial vessel reported observing 4 drones in the western Gulf of Aden, one of which attempted to attack the vessel (unsuccessfully). Separately, a different unidentified vessel was attacked in the eastern Gulf of Aden in a similar fashion (also unsuccessfully).

-HomeFront-

USA: A Congressional subcommittee has revealed more details of domestic spying. In a letter to a department of the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN), Rep. Jim Jordan outlines the investigative processes used by the Department of the Treasury (without any warrants or oversight) to spy on Americans. In the letter, USDT is alleged to flag certain financial transactions (via MCC codes) as being indicative of terrorism. Such extremism indicators are very broad, including purchasing firearms, renting cars, sporting goods, etc. In addition to flagging purchases by certain vendors, USDT analysis also includes specific keyword searches of specific transactions, to include words like MAGA and TRUMP. The letter also alleges that the purchase of religious texts is enough for the USDT to flag a taxpayer as potentially being a terrorist threat.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: The reports indicating domestic American financial surveillance are not new issues; many scandals have broken out regarding illegal surveillance of taxpayers’ purchases over the years.

In the Red Sea, the intensification of targeting will likely continue as US airstrikes prove less than effective in preventing attacks on commercial shipping.

Analyst: S2A

//END REPORT//