S2 Underground

//The Wire//1730Z February 7, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: HOUTHI ATTACKS CONTINUE. USMC HELICOPTER MISSING NEAR SAN DIEGO.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-HomeFront-

CA: A USMC CH-53E Super Stallion helicopter has gone missing in transit from Creech Air Force Base in Nevada to Marine Corps Air Station Miramar. SAR efforts are underway as an initial search of the last reported position yielded no results. Ground crews have also been delayed due to the extreme weather conditions (and rugged terrain) in the area that the aircraft went missing in.

AC: According to open-source ADS-B tracking data, TIGER11 was last observed flying over Cleveland National Forest IVO 11SNS5380026563, cruising at a speed of 113 kts, on a bearing of 323 degrees. Though it is too early to determine precise details regarding this incident, in the interest of expediency, it is possible that ADS-B data indicates the CH-53E was on a collision course with a ridgeline IVO 11SNS5363826791. Again, not knowing details, a possible search area is likely to include the drainage on the following side of the ridge, IVO 11SNS5340427122, as well as the wooded area on the valley floor IVO 11SNS5320427393.

-International Events-

Red Sea/HOA: Houthi forces continue their attacks on commercial shipping, targeting two cargo vessels yesterday. The M/V STAR NASIA was targeted by several cruise missiles which impacted near the ship causing minor damage. The M/V MORNING TIDE was also targeted with three cruise missiles unsuccessfully.

The Royal Navy has decided to withdraw the HMS DIAMOND from theatre. Official statements suggest this is for maintenance reasons following a few months of combat service. The DIAMOND was the only Royal Navy vessel contributing to the American OPN PROSPERITY GUARDIAN and will be replaced by the HMS RICHMOND.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: As the timing of the HMS DIAMOND’s replacement appears to be early, speculation remains as to the true reason of this replacement. Yemeni forces claim to have damaged the vessel, owing to the early withdrawal. However, Houthi forces claim to sink almost every vessel in theatre, so this source is unreliable at best and no information corroborates these claims. What is more likely is that the toll paid by brief combat service against a largely insurgent force using improvised weapons is more than the Type 45 Destroyer program can maintain, especially following years of scandal related to their combat effectiveness.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1900Z February 6, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: HOUTHI TARGETING CONTINUES IN RED SEA. BORDER CRISIS CONTINUES AT HOME.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Red Sea/HOA: Yesterday, CENTCOM confirmed U.S. forces engaged 2x Uncrewed Surface Vehicles (USVs) that were allegedly being staged for an attack. No additional details were provided regarding this alleged newly-fielded weapons system. AC: It is also unclear what intelligence indicated these vessels were intended to be USVs or if these were simply unoccupied vessels. The use of USVs would be an expected escalation to be relied upon by Houthi forces, but it is unclear as to if this incident is an accurate representation of this potential escalation.

Yemeni forces meanwhile continue operations to target what few Western commercial shipping vessels attempt to transit the Red Sea. Cruise missile and kamikaze drone attacks have dwindled following the grand transition of most shipping to the Cape Route. However, Houthi attacks on U.S. Navy vessels continue regularly, as do attacks on any vessel that does not abide by Yemeni transit procedures. This morning, unidentified personnel aboard a small craft attacked a commercial vessel with a possible RPG in the southern Red Sea.

-HomeFront-

TX: Yesterday a consortium of conservative Governors assembled for various press events in Eagle Pass. This event comes as doubts begin to grow regarding the effectiveness of the operation in Eagle Pass. According to Texas officials, around 3,000 immigrants were crossing the border in Eagle Pass daily, prior to the increased fortification efforts. That number has allegedly dropped to an average of three encounters per day (in just the areas where fortifications have been made).

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: It is important to note that the entirety of the fortifications in Eagle Pass are protecting but a few hundred meters of the southern U.S. border. Without question, the nearly 100% decrease in illegal border crossings in Eagle Pass is almost certainly due to most illegals being redirected just a few miles away from the high-profile areas around Shelby Park…and away from the preying eyes of journalists with cameras. A few hundred meters of concertina wire is not likely to overcome the substantial federal (and Organizations that are allegedly Non-Governmental) influence to increase the ease of illegal border crossings.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

Hey everyone, I've been getting a few questions about the Incident Response page from our GhostNet guide and decided I might as well describe the thought process a bit more clearly. 

I feel really hesitant to discuss such ideas that are not cemented in stone, because just making things up as we go along is not generally a good idea. However, in the interest of expediency, here's what we've got so far. It's not perfect, but it gives people something to work from when some national event occurs that requires paying attention to. And since the battle for most of us will be for comms, this foundation is heavily comms-centric. I freely admit that this may not be the best perspective to discuss this topic, but for many of us, in the absence of internet or cellular information exchanges being reliable, radio may be all we have.

00:00 - Introduction 

02:30 - 6 Step ICS Process 

05:04 - "What do I do?" 

07:35 - Immediate Concerns 

12:41 - Battle Tracking 

20:41 - Wrapping things up 

22:20 - Closing Thoughts

Youtube link: https://youtu.be/i9lu-Zso1ok

//The Wire//2130Z February 5, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: BORDER CRISIS CONTINUES DESPITE IMPROVMENTS//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

United Kingdom: King Charles III has been diagnosed with cancer. In the statements provided by Buckingham Palace the type of cancer was not disclosed. No further information at this time.

Red Sea/HOA: U.S. targeting of Houthi sites continues to become more regular. However, as no intelligence or BDA products have been made public, the effectiveness of American targeting is unclear.

-HomeFront-

TX: Substantial fortification efforts continue along the southern border in Eagle Pass. In a press statement released yesterday, the Alaska Army National Guard has revealed plans to deploy limited forces to the southern border under federal Title 10 orders. AC: Additional statements indicate that this deployment involves few troops (only a couple of helicopters and support staff), and is not in coordination with Operation Lone Star.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Independent journalists on the ground at the southern US border continue to document the largely open border. Texas, being highly motivated to show the grand efforts to secure high-profile border crossings, struggles to stem the tide of illegal immigration even just a few miles from the obstacles in Eagle Pass.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2130Z February 3, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: INITIAL BDA OF AMERICAN STRIKES UNDERWHELMING//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Europe: A stabbing attack in Paris wounded three at Gare de Lyon railway station yesterday. The assailant is reportedly a refugee from Mali.

Middle East: Initial assessment of the American strikes in Syria indicates little damage. The substantial warnings given to Iranian forces also resulted in very few casualties (around a couple dozen deaths at first count by local forces).

Red Sea/HOA: Houthi targeting of both commercial and Naval vessels continues throughout the region. Yesterday, CENTCOM officials stated that strikes were conducted against 4x targets in Yemen, and aircraft from the USS EISENHOWER CSG shot down 7x drones over the Red Sea. Today, 6x strikes were conducted in Yemen, allegedly against missiles staged to launch against shipping in the region.

-HomeFront-

NY: City officials have launched a $53 million campaign to distribute funds directly to illegal immigrants via Immediate Response Cards, i.e. prepaid credit cards. Like most other welfare programs, cards will be refilled with funds every month, but unlike pre-existing SNAP benefits, the only accountability for funding under this new process involves illegals signing documentation promising to only use the cards for food.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Though comparing numbers of munitions (instead of tonnage and/or munition type) is not the most accurate depiction of combat power, 159 attacks on US forces throughout the Middle East have been reported since Oct 7, whereas only 125 individual munitions were dropped last night. For reference, Israel has been dropping roughly 1,000 bombs per day in Gaza. As such, the strikes observed so far appear to largely be ineffective at reducing the combat power of Iranian proxy forces in the region. Additionally, it is unclear as to if this targeting is representative of a one-shot retaliation, or if the longer-duration campaign hinted at previously will come to fruition. As it stands, retaliatory strikes may be barely above the baseline of activity for the region, and may be difficult to discern from the routine targeting efforts undertaken by combat forces.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

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//The Wire//2300Z February 2, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: U.S. BEGINS RETALIATORY STRIKES IN SYRIA//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Europe: Farmer protests continue to cause widespread disruptions throughout much of mainland western Europe. Major roads remain blocked surrounding government buildings in Brussels, Paris, and Arnhem as demonstrations become more organized and widespread. International border crossings between many European nations have also been blockaded by demonstrators as a result of climate agenda trade policies. Last night, mass farmer protests began in earnest in Ireland, contributing to the millions of people demonstrating against the climate agenda throughout Europe.

Middle East: American forces have begun retaliatory strikes against Iranian proxy forces in Syria. So far, bombings have been reported near Deir ez-Zor and al-Mayadeen, and limited strikes have been reported in Abu Kamal. CENTCOM has confirmed that 85 targets were struck throughout Syria.

-HomeFront-

NY: A construction worker was killed when a basement collapsed during a construction project in Brooklyn. No further information at this time.

TX: Border posture continues as before, with TXNG continuing to improve obstacles along the border. Florida has authorized the deployment of FLNG resources to assist with border fortifications, along with Florida State Guard (FLSG) forces, which are being deployed for the first time. Roughly 1,000 FLSG troops are being deployed to Texas.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: The value of citizen-monitored ADS-B receivers has been demonstrated by the latest strikes against Iranian targets in Syria. Even though operational prudence would obviously result in bomber aircraft turning off transponders, this did not happen. The electronic signatures presented by dozens of military aircraft in the lead up to this attack was obvious to anyone who bothered to open up a flight tracking app. Additionally, press releases from defense officials confirmed that bombers were in the air, and on the way to their targets in Syria. Ordinarily, openly giving an adversary this much intelligence would be utter madness, but this was almost certainly done to provide Iran as much warning as possible (to avoid retaliation). The side benefit for taxpayers is that this allows the real-time monitoring of real-world operations.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2200Z February 1, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: PROTESTS CONTINUE IN EUROPE, DESPITE LACK OF MEDIA COVERAGE//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

United Kingdom: An acid attack wounds 12 people in southwest London. The attacker has been identified as 35 year old Abdul Shokoor Ezedi. The attacker remains a fugitive as a woman and her two children remain hospitalized from the attack.

Belgium: Protests intensify at the headquarters of the European Union in Brussels. Farmers protesting against the climate agenda have sought to disrupt EU summit meetings, which have been convened to provide more financial support to Ukraine.

Middle East: U.S. defense officials have confirmed that airstrikes will be conducted against Iranian groups in Iraq and Syria. AC: Letting an adversary know where military actions are going to take place is likely to result in a continuation in the decline of both the combat effectiveness and the prestige of the U.S. military. Iranian groups and “proxies” are ready for retaliation and have had many days to prepare and move forces away from where the U.S. has already confirmed strikes will take place.

-HomeFront-

IN: This afternoon the BP refinery in Whiting experienced an emergency power failure, prompting evacuations of the facility. It is unclear as to what caused the power failure, but large flares are expected  to be observed at the facility as technicians vent and burn off gasses to prevent an explosion. AC: This is not particularly out of the ordinary for most industrial facilities of this size. However with increased scrutiny following the years of deliberate sabotage of critical infrastructure, suspicions come easily as to the causes of incidents like this.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Throughout Europe, food shortages have been noted at many grocery stores as products are not making it to store shelves due to demonstrations (both the demonstrations of truck drivers, and the constriction of the flow of traffic).

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z January 31, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: PROTESTS IN EUROPE ESCALATE//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Europe: Protests in France intensified yesterday afternoon as farmers succeeded in encircling Paris, stopping traffic along all major roads into the city. Preparations are underway in Belgium, Italy, and Germany to prepare for similar ongoing demonstrations that are also becoming increasingly volatile. Mass arrests have been reported at some of the more high-profile venues targeted for demonstrations, but most authorities have struggled to stop the sheer number of people protesting.

Far East: Taiwanese Defense Forces have noted an increase in PLA activity in the Taiwan Strait over the past few days. AC: This is a slight increase in the baseline trends of Chinese activity in the region. Probably not indicative of major operations, but notable as around a dozen PLA aircraft have been violating Taiwan’s ADIZ daily for weeks.

Middle East: Preparations continue for American retaliatory strikes against Iranian targets. AC: Rhetoric among diplomats and politicians leaking information to the press indicates that the response to the Tower 22 drone strike may be more of a long-term strategic campaign rather than a limited retaliatory engagement. As any theory on this possible campaign will be purely speculative, it is possible that the rhetoric that is being made public is an attempt to set expectations for future combat operations.

-HomeFront-

OK: A natural gas pipeline experienced a blowout in the vicinity of Elmwood last night. The resulting explosion was observed by locals almost 40 miles away. Authorities have not released any details regarding the cause of the blast.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: As demonstrations become more serious throughout Europe, the responses to protests will likely become more kinetic as well. In France, social tensions have become increasingly anti-government in nature. Last night, President Macron attended a royal gala hosted by the Swedish royal family as part of a state visit to Stockholm. The optics of this visit, at a time when the French are increasingly facing domestic troubles, has not been well received by demonstrators throughout the country who have drawn the links between history and this perceived “let them eat cake” moment. Similar sentiments are being expressed in Belgium, where farmer protests have been met with comparatively heavy-handed responses by authorities.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z January 30, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: U.S. AIRSTRIKES IN MIDDLE EAST LIKELY IMMINENT//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Europe: Protests in France intensify following public outrage over taxation issues. French farmers have been protesting in earnest for months, with demonstrations reaching historic levels within the past few weeks. Demonstrations have also become increasingly kinetic, with larger disruptions becoming more common around the country.

Middle East: Preparations continue for the American retaliatory strike against Iranian targets. AC: Due to the substantial buildup of forces in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Cyprus, Iraq, and Israel, retaliatory strikes will likely begin very soon.

Red Sea/HOA: Yemeni forces continue to streamline the blockade of Western shipping. Several suspicious approaches have been reported by cargo vessels transiting the region over the past few days, but it is unclear as to if these incidents are related to Houthi targeting or if this is more a situation of routine piracy.

-HomeFront-

TX: No major changes in TXNG border posture. In Kurten, TX an explosion was reported at Feather Crest Farms, the cause of which is unknown ATT. The facility is currently burning, and local authorities expect the fire to last several days. Feather Crest Farms is an egg supplier that was recently purchased by MPS Egg Farms in Indiana, and at this facility maintains about one million egg laying hens, and employs just under 100 people.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Though no one knows with any certainty as to what the US response to the Tower 22 drone strike will be, speculation of possible strikes is largely centered around Iranian bases in Syria or Naval vessels in the Red Sea or Arabian Gulf. However, as the DoD has already stated the preparations for strikes will take a few days to stage for, this strongly indicates that the plethora of strategic assets already in theatre to combat Houthi forces are not enough to carry out the retaliatory strikes the US is planning for Iranian forces or “proxies”.

Analyst: S2A

//END REPORT//