S2 Underground

//The Wire//2330Z January 18, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: PAKISTAN RETALIATES IN RESPONSE TO IRANIAN STRIKES. ATTACKS ON RED SEA SHIPPING INCREASE IN FREQUENCY.//

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-International Events-

Middle East: In response to Iranian missile strikes, Pakistan strikes targets in Iran. Last night, ISIS forces in Iraq successfully downed an American MQ-9 Reaper near Baghdad. AC: This is likely a power-projection move that may coincide with recent politics in the region. A few days ago, the Iraqi Parliament voted to expel the United States from their nation. Obviously, the U.S. will continue ignoring Iraqi demands to leave (as this debate has come up several times over the 20-year occupation of Iraq). However, this political move (along with the war in Gaza) will likely result in local insurgent groups being incentivized to carry out more substantial attacks than routine harassment engagements.

Red Sea/HOA: Coalition forces continue to strike targets in Yemen. The vessel struck by a Yemeni drone yesterday has been identified as the M/V GENCO PICARDY, an American owned bulk cargo carrier. Today, two separate incidents were reported in the Gulf of Aden. This morning, another American-owned commercial vessel reported observing 4 drones in the western Gulf of Aden, one of which attempted to attack the vessel (unsuccessfully). Separately, a different unidentified vessel was attacked in the eastern Gulf of Aden in a similar fashion (also unsuccessfully).

-HomeFront-

USA: A Congressional subcommittee has revealed more details of domestic spying. In a letter to a department of the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN), Rep. Jim Jordan outlines the investigative processes used by the Department of the Treasury (without any warrants or oversight) to spy on Americans. In the letter, USDT is alleged to flag certain financial transactions (via MCC codes) as being indicative of terrorism. Such extremism indicators are very broad, including purchasing firearms, renting cars, sporting goods, etc. In addition to flagging purchases by certain vendors, USDT analysis also includes specific keyword searches of specific transactions, to include words like MAGA and TRUMP. The letter also alleges that the purchase of religious texts is enough for the USDT to flag a taxpayer as potentially being a terrorist threat.

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Analyst Comments: The reports indicating domestic American financial surveillance are not new issues; many scandals have broken out regarding illegal surveillance of taxpayers’ purchases over the years.

In the Red Sea, the intensification of targeting will likely continue as US airstrikes prove less than effective in preventing attacks on commercial shipping.

Analyst: S2A

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2130Z January 17, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: RED SEA ATTACKS CONTINUE.//

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-International Events-

Middle East: Iran continues to conduct ballistic missile strikes. Strikes have been reported in Pakistan, targeting alleged Israeli-linked groups within southwestern Pakistan. Strikes have also been reported in Syria, targeting ISIS factions within the northwestern districts of the country.

Red Sea/HOA: Yemeni targeting of commercial shipping continues as before. This morning, another (as yet unidentified) commercial vessel was struck by a Houthi drone in the Gulf of Aden. This comes as reports surface indicating global insurers are restricting coverage for vessels transiting the Red Sea, due to the ongoing conflict.

Diplomatically, the White House has announced that the Houthi-controlled Yemeni government will be again classified as a specially designated global terrorist group next month. AC: As a reminder, the Houthi regime was previously classified as a specially designated global terrorist group and a Foreign Terrorist Organization (which is the most serious diplomatic classification that can be applied in this situation). In 2021, almost immediately after Biden’s inauguration, these classifications were removed by the State Department.

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Analyst Comments: As more companies begin to divert logistics routes away from the Red Sea, many logistical sectors are preparing for this crisis to settle in for the long haul. Yemeni forces have so far mostly focused targeting efforts on container ships bound for western ports, or ships that are in some way affiliated with Israel (which current traffic deviations around the Cape suggest is substantial). However, an important distinction must be noted: The last two vessels targeted by Yemeni forces were not container ships…but rather bulk cargo vessels. Consequently, concerns are increasing that commodities may begin to feel the pressure, not just consumer goods bound for western ports. Additionally, POL and LNG tankers have not substantially been targeted by Yemen. If tankers begin to be targeted in earnest, more substantial economic impacts will likely not be able to be suppressed or manipulated by artificial financial markets.

Analyst: S2A

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1930Z January 16, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: ATTACKS ON RED SEA SHIPPING ESCALATE. IRAN TARGETS ALLEGED MOSSAD SPY BASES IN IRAQ.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Red Sea/HOA: Attacks in the Red Sea intensify following U.S. targeting in Yemen. This morning, the M/V ZOGRAFIA was struck with a cruise missile in the southern Red Sea. Yesterday, the American-owned M/V GIBRALTAR EAGLE was also struck with a missile in the Gulf of Aden.

Middle East: Overnight, multiple targets within Erbil, Iraq were struck with multiple ballistic missiles originating from Iran. Iranian statements indicate this attack was conducted in response to the terror attack in Kerman weeks ago. Targets in Syria were also struck as IRGC forces carry out the largest ballistic missile attack in recent memory.

In Gaza, tensions between Egypt and Israel have intensified over the past few days as Israeli forces seek to maintain control of the Philadelphi Corridor. This thin strip of land along the Israeli-Egyptian border has served as a diplomatic buffer zone between Israel and Egypt following the 1979 peace treaty that officially halted the multiple conflicts in the region until that time. As Israel has sought to occupy this diplomatic no-mans-land (allegedly to halt the flow of weapons into Gaza), tensions in the region have been exacerbated. Egypt has previously stated that taking the Philadelphi corridor was a “red line”, and last night skirmishes were reported between Egyptian and Israeli troops along the border.

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Analyst Comments: As a reminder, Yemeni leadership has constantly stated that a ceasefire in Gaza would result in a cessation of targeting in the Red Sea. As this option is completely off the table among warring parties, and the U.S. is unable to stop Yemeni targeting, attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea will likely continue. The war in Yemen, while largely a civil conflict, has also involved a coalition of Arab states since the beginning. A coalition of 10 Arab states has been waging war in Yemen since 2015 (along with the support from western powers), with the goal of ousting the Houthi-controlled government.

Despite initial reporting, the U.S. Consulate in Erbil was not targeted by IRGC forces last night. The closest location targeted was a private mansion approximately 3 miles NE of the U.S. Consulate, that was allegedly serving as a headquarters for Mossad. This location (IVO 38S MF 22091 18152) was the home of Peshraw Dizayee, the leader of Falcon Group, a large conglomerate of corporations involved with security, construction, real estate, oil and gas, cosmetics, and technology. This location was struck as Dizayee was allegedly conducting a meeting with four Mossad agents. The nature of this meeting appears to have coincided with a birthday party for Dizayee’s infant daughter (also killed in the attack), who would have turned one year old on Jan 25th. Also at the gathering was Karam Mikhail (an oil tycoon and friend of Dizayee), who was also killed in the attack.

Analyst: S2A

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1530Z January 15, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: SAR EFFORTS CONTINUE FOR SAILORS MISSING IN GULF OF ADEN. TAIWAN ELECTIONS RAISE TENSIONS IN REGION//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Red Sea/HOA: U.S. Navy forces continue to search for two sailors that went missing on Saturday. Pentagon statements indicate that the sailors were SEALs who went missing during a boarding operation. No further details at this time.

Despite American airstrikes, Yemeni targeting of commercial shipping continues largely unabated. This morning, the UKMTO reported a missile strike on an as yet unidentified merchant vessel in the Gulf of Aden.

This morning, Qatar announced their cessation of LNG shipping through the Red Sea, in response to U.S. targeting. AC: Qatar provides approximately 13% of the LNG consumed by western Europe, all of which was transported via the Red Sea route.

Far East: Recent elections in Taiwan have exacerbated tensions with China. Following the election win of  Lai Ching-te and the third consecutive win for Taiwan's incumbent ruling party, the White House responded by issuing the statement that “We do not support independence”. AC: This continues the creeping departure from the long-standing policy of ‘strategic ambiguity’ regarding Taiwanese independence. As China will be looking at this election as an exacerbation of Taiwanese independence sentiments, China will likely be conducting major military drills in response to the election results.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. – Further reports indicate the gross negligence surrounding SECDEF Lloyd Austin’s hospitalization. Follow on information indicates that, during Austin’s initial transfer of command while under anesthesia, his Deputy (Kathleen Hicks) did not cancel her beach vacation in Puerto Rico, remaining outside the United States during this crisis of command.

Washington D.C. – Protesters supporting Palestine and Yemen breached White House security Saturday night, breaking through an outer perimeter fence.

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Analyst Comments: The Dr. Strangelove-esque risks clearly and openly presented by senior defense officials are not simply grievances of a personal or political nature, but indicative of the gross incompetency within the National Command Authority (NCA) that has resulted in exceptionally grave strategic vulnerabilities being presented to the world. As a reminder, following the Chinese Spy Balloon incident last year, a slew of firings swept through STRATCOM, with many senior leaders being relieved of command. Many of these firings continue; even as recently as last September the commander of the 9th Bomb Squadron was relieved after only a few months of command. As the current crisis unfolded, the SECDEF was hospitalized with a life-threatening illness, his Deputy was on a beach in Puerto Rico, and the White House knew nothing about any of this for a period of four to seven days. During that time, questions remain as to how the NCA was expected to function, especially considering the planning efforts on the eve of a major military operation in the Middle East (the strikes in Yemen).

Analyst: S2A

//END REPORT//

RR The Wire 1630Z January 13, 2024

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR

DTG: 163013Z JAN 24

ICOD: 153013Z JAN 24

CONTROLS: Public Release

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BLUF: U.S. NAVY SAILORS MISSING AT SEA IN GULF OF ADEN.

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Red Sea/HOA: CENTCOM has confirmed that the U.S. Navy is currently conducting SAR operations as two sailors have been reported missing. Airstrikes within Yemen enter their second day as Pentagon officials continue to withhold details of this operation. Little information has been disclosed as to the size, scope, or duration of this mission.

Europe: Investigative journalist (and American citizen) Gonzalo Lira has died in a Ukrainian prison. Following previous run-ins with Ukrainian officials, he was ultimately incarcerated in May for allegedly promoting “Russian aggression” in video content that was critical of Zelensky. Communication with him was limited before his death, but he did confirm that he had been tortured prior to his final imprisonment (and subsequent disappearance) which resulted from him trying to flee the country.

Far East: In Japan, ANA Flight 1182 experienced an in-flight emergency, returning to Toyama airport after takeoff. Pilots noticed a crack in a cockpit window, prompting the Boeing 737-800 to perform a precautionary landing. The crack did not result in any depressurization or injuries to the crew.

-HomeFront-

TX: The DHS has filed an emergency motion with SCOTUS to stop Texas from securing the southern border. At the moment, it is unclear as to if the SCOTUS will take the case. 

Analyst Comments: As a reminder, there has been no statement explaining the combat operations within Yemen in any detail. As Congress has not approved this operation, the details of the operation itself are not public; we do not know if this is a limited action, a temporary campaign, or the beginning of a war. Pentagon spokesman John Kirby stated that “We’re not interested in…a war with Yemen. We’re not interested in a conflict of any kind here”. However, dropping bombs on a country is usually the defining characteristic of a conflict. Additionally, U.S. officials have urged commercial shipping to avoid the area. This is generally counterproductive for a military operation intended to increase freedom of navigation. Consequently, more shipping companies have announced a cessation of operations through the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.

As conflicting information abounds surrounding the war in Yemen, questions begin to emerge regarding potential U.S. casualties. Yemen claims to have destroyed several ships and aircraft, whereas the U.S. claims to have sustained no damage at all. Considering the intensity of Yemeni counterattacks, the truth is likely somewhere in between these extremes. Though quite impressive, U.S. Navy shipborne defenses are not infallible, falling prey to swarm attacks or intense concentrations of fire…the exact style of attack Yemeni forces are conducting. Yemeni targeting is primitive by comparison…but the competency crisis within the U.S. Navy is severe.

Missing sailors are unfortunately common; suicides and accidents occur quite frequently when on deployment. However, two sailors going missing at the same time is rare. It is even more rare for this to happen during a heightened state of readiness, and in the middle of combat operations when situational awareness is enhanced and complacency should be minimal.

Though this is highly speculative at this time, it is possible that the reports of missing sailors are linked to a successful Yemeni attack. It is impossible to determine in any case as ships at sea do not tend to host investigative journalists. Considering the sources, even in the rare case a U.S. Navy ship was successfully targeted, the only source for information would be the U.S. Navy itself, until 

RR The Wire 1730Z January 12, 2024

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR

DTG: 173012Z JAN 24

ICOD: 163012Z JAN 24

CONTROLS: Public Release

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BLUF: TEXAS SEIZES BORDER CROSSING. YEMEN VOWS RETALIATION FOR STRIKES.

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: Following major airstrikes within Yemen, Houthi forces have vowed to retaliate. A few hours after the American and British attacks, Yemeni forces conducted an attack on a commercial shipping vessel. The attack was unsuccessful as the missile fired at the vessel missed, splashing down within 500m of the ship.

Around the region, an observable increase in rocket attacks originating from Hezbollah in Lebanon was noted last night, but no indicators of a major offensive effort are present yet.

Europe: Panic buying is underway in Sweden following statements by government officials regarding the possibility of war. Defense Minister Bohlin stated that “there could be war in Sweden”. The Supreme Commander of the Swedish Armed Forces reinforced these statements, urging the public that “On an individual level, you have to prepare yourself mentally”. AC: Though these statements are not out of the ordinary considering events in Europe, hearing such blunt admissions by high-ranking officials has been shocking for many Swedes. There are no indicators that war will break out in Sweden imminently, but as tensions remain extremely high throughout the continent, general preparedness is a prudent goal for citizens to consider.

-HomeFront-

TX: Significant developments are underway at the southern border. The State of Texas has seized land surrounding the infamous Shelby Park in Eagle Pass. TX National Guard forces have deployed in positions so as to block federal CBP agents from accessing the border. The adjacent boat launch also used by CBP is also now off limits to federal agents.

This move comes following months of federal agents cutting razor wire, removing barricades, and directly aiding and abetting illegal immigration. As a reminder, last week DHS officials confirmed that over 85% of all illegals encountered at the border are not currently being deported, but instead being released into the United States.

Washington D.C. – Congress voices objection to not approving airstrikes in a nation the U.S. is not at war with. Questions also remain following Pentagon statements that SECDEF Austin allegedly approved the strikes from his hospital bed.

Analyst Comments: Though tensions between agencies have been common at the southern US border for years, recent developments have shifted attitudes into more of an adversarial nature. As history has proven, the impacts that state vs. federal conflict can have are often underestimated before flashpoints occur. Likewise, the use of armed soldiers by both sides presents even more opportunities for substantial mistakes to be made.

Following the strikes in Yemen, the main question remains: “What happens next?”. Yemeni forces will likely repair or replace damaged facilities and equipment over the next few weeks. Calling into question the philosophical nature of an air war, it is hard to argue that even substantial targeting within a nation will be totally successful. As such, Yemen will be quick to prove that the strikes did not remove all of their combat power, and will likely increase targeting of US Navy vessels in the region. Commercial shipping companies will likely be hesitant to resume operations as one airstrike is not likely to reduce Yemeni capabilities enough for ships to become confident in transiting the Red Sea. Especially considering the Houthis are now overly motivated to carry out strikes on commercial shipping, to reaffirm their military dominance in the region.

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Analyst: S2A

END REPORT

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PP The Wire 0130Z January 12, 2024

PRECEDENCE: PRIORITY PP

DTG: 013012Z JAN 24

ICOD: 010012Z JAN 24

CONTROLS: Public Release

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BLUF: USA/GBR CONDUCT AIRSTRIKES IN YEMEN. REGIONAL ATTACKS INTENSIFY IN KIND.

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Middle East: At approximately 0230 local time, British and American forces began conducting airstrikes within Yemen. Pentagon officials state that approximately 10 locations were targeted throughout the nation. Targeting has largely focused on the capital city of Sanaa, as well as the city of Tays and the port of Hodaydah. In response, Yemeni forces have launched substantial missile attacks on US vessels in the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea.

In response to these attacks, significant developments are currently underway throughout the region. Iranian officials have pledged support for Yemen, and most Iranian military forces have assumed a heightened state of readiness. Substantial attacks have been reported at many coalition bases in Iraq and Syria. The U.S. Embassy in Baghdad has also been targeted with Indirect Fire (IDF) weapons.

Responses from regional power-players have varied. Saudi Arabia allowed the use of their airspace for the attack. Conversely, Oman has forbid the use of their airspace for this operation, and the United Arab Emirates has placed their forces on alert in response to coalition targeting.

Analyst Comments: As a reminder, White House officials called a lid for today, so no comments have been made by POTUS regarding this operation. Also, SECDEF Lloyd Austin remains hospitalized, and has not been seen by the public for over 11 days. Considering these factors, it is not clear as to who authorized this operation at this time, or at which level of command and control this operation is being monitored from.

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Analyst: S2A

END REPORT

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RR The Wire 2230Z January 11, 2024

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR

DTG: 223011Z JAN 24

ICOD: 213011Z JAN 24

CONTROLS: Public Release

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BLUF: IRAN RE-HIJACKS OIL TANKER. PROTESTS CONTINUE IN EUROPE.

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: The M/V ST NIKOLAS (an oil tanker bound for Turkey) was hijacked by Iranian forces in the Strait of Hormuz, approximately 50 NM north of Oman. AC: There is more to this incident than meets the eye. This vessel previously went by a different name, the M/V SUEZ RAJAN, and was seized by the U.S. in 2022 for shipping Iranian oil in violation of sanctions. After waiting for the vessel to onload a payload of oil from Iraq, Iranian forces re-captured the vessel, along with the cargo of oil.

South America: Widespread military mobilization continues in Ecuador following the cartel violence that spread throughout the country several days ago. 

Europe: Protests continue in Germany, Spain, Poland, Denmark, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, and many other European nations demonstrating support or denouncement of a variety of issues. In addition to the pro-Palestine demonstrations which have become regular throughout Europe, many protests include demonstrations of solidarity with the farmer protests in Germany.

Red Sea/HOA: Conflict continues as before. Almost all commercial shipping destined for western nations remains committed to the Cape route, while local traffic through the Red Sea remains largely unaffected. AC: Though entirely unconfirmed rumor ATT, talks are reportedly underway among coalition forces that may involve conducting strikes within Yemen.

Analyst Comments: From the very beginning of the Red Sea Crisis, the elephant in the room has been the use of force within Yemen. As it has become clear that international shipping companies have no faith in the defenses provided by the US Navy, alternative plans have likely been on the table before OPN PROSPERITY GUARDIAN even began. However, conducting any strike (even limited strikes on launch sites) will have a direct impact on the fighting in Gaza. As Hezbollah has increasingly become more actively involved in the north, widening the conflict into Yemeni territory will almost certainly accelerate the pace of the Gaza War.

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Analyst: S2A

END REPORT

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RR The Wire 2230Z January 10, 2024

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR

DTG: 223010Z JAN 24

ICOD: 213010Z JAN 24

CONTROLS: Public Release

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BLUF: SITUATION IN ECUADOR REMAINS TENSE. ATTACKS CONTINUE IN RED SEA. TUNNEL SYSTEM DISCOVERED IN NEW YORK.

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

South America: Situation in Ecuador remains tense as military forces begin mobilization in most major cities. The initial hostilities have subsided following this mobilization, but sporadic gunfire and explosions continue to be reported in most major cities.

Europe: Farmer protests continue in Germany. As preliminary reports expected, this nationwide protest is one of the largest in Europe’s history, and has been met with widespread support from locals, despite causing significant transportation issues.

Red Sea/HOA: Impacts to western shipping continue as before. Yesterday, Yemeni forces conducted a complex attack on US Naval vessels and commercial shipping, using 18x drones, 2 ASCMs, and one ballistic missile. All were intercepted by coalition Naval vessels in the area. 

-HomeFront-

NY: Controversy emerges surrounding events at the Chabad Lubavitch World Headquarters in Crown Heights, Brooklyn. Several days ago, viral content on social media emerged as unrest broke out upon city officials attempting to fill in a secret tunnel network beneath the facility. AC: As this is a highly controversial topic, accounts vary as to the origin, usage, contents, and extent of this tunnel system. However, most accounts so far suggest most of the digging was conducted relatively recently. Public works officials have not provided mapping data of how extensive the underground system is, but many local reports indicate structural integrity issues in the surrounding properties.

NY: James Madison High School was evacuated of students in order to serve as housing for illegal immigrants. Students will reportedly be attending classes remotely while the facility is being used to house approximately 2,000 illegals. Authorities claim this move is temporary due to severe weather conditions.

Washington D.C. – Correction to previous Wire: SECDEF Austin has prostate cancer, not pancreatic as previously reported. Further details released by Pentagon officials indicate Austin and his staff deliberately withheld most details surrounding his hospitalization. For instance, his Deputy was only told about his hospitalization two days after assuming command. White House staff were also not informed that Austin was undergoing a procedure that required general anesthesia, nor was the White House informed that the SECDEF had transferred command to his Deputy.

Analyst Comments: As SECDEF Austin has not been seen by the public for over a week, doubts begin to emerge following the Pentagon’s conflicting reports on his status. Based on interactions with the press, the White House only learned of the incident through media coverage, indicating that the POTUS going 7 days without speaking to the SECDEF is culturally viewed as normal.

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Analyst: S2A

END REPORT

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RR The Wire 2230Z January 09, 2024

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR

DTG: 223009Z JAN 24

ICOD: 213009Z JAN 24

CONTROLS: Public Release

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BLUF: CIVIL CONFLICT BEGINS IN ECUADOR. SECDEF AUSTIN CONTINUES HOSPITALIZATION. 

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

South America: In Ecuador, President Noboa has declared a national state of emergency following cartel hostilities. Fighting broke out this morning following reports that the leader of the Los Choneros cartel, Adolfo Macías Villamar, has escaped from prison. Combat has broken out in many locations throughout Ecuador as cartel gunmen launch assaults on civilian centers with the apparent goal of taking hostages. So far, fighting has been reported in Guayaquil, Cuenca, Ambato, and several other cities.

An assault was launched on the television studio in Guayaquil, with gunmen taking the studio anchors hostage on live television. Explosions were reported IVO Fort Huancavilca in Guayaquil as military forces began mobilizing to retake strategic locations throughout Ecuador’s largest city. In Cuenca, prisoners at Torre Prison overpowered guards, and have been holding them hostage for several hours. Several videos have been posted by cartel-affiliated social media accounts confirming the execution of some hostages.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. – SECDEF Lloyd Austin’s hospitalization continues, with few details regarding his current condition. However, Pentagon officials have stated that Austin was diagnosed with pancreatic cancer, which was the origin of the initial medical treatment. According to the latest version of the story told by Pentagon officials, this illness mandated “elective” surgery, which resulted in complications and Austin’s subsequent hospitalization.

Analyst Comments: As the statements by defense officials continue to change between press briefings, and have contained outright lies, it is hard to believe any details currently being stated by the Pentagon. It is also unclear as to whom is currently carrying out the duties of SECDEF. As Austin is still hospitalized and has not been visually seen by the public since the beginning of this incident, coupled with the tone of Pentagon statements indicating the handing over of duties to his Deputy being a temporary action, it is possible that Austin retains the duties of SECDEF.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst: S2A

END REPORT

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