S2 Underground

RR The Wire 2200Z December 29, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR

DTG: 220029Z DEC 23

ICOD: 210029Z DEC 23

CONTROLS: Public Release

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BLUF: USS BATAAN TRANSITS INTO MED. ELECTORAL INFLUENCING OPERATIONS CONTINUE IN THE U.S.

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Red Sea/HOA: The USS BATAAN and USS CARTER HALL have transited north through the Suez Canal into the Mediterranean Sea, and will reform as a full ARG. As a reminder, these vessels were deployed for counter-piracy operations in the southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden in direct response to Yemeni targeting. AC: These vessels, while technically not operating as a full ARG, were in effect acting as such over the past few weeks. As the ARG is one of the more flexible unit structures in the military, one of the main standard missions for U.S. Marines onboard these vessels is to provide onboard security teams for merchant vessels passing through high-risk areas, if the situation calls for it. This is a long-standing mission set, and one that even China has routinely employed themselves for over a decade as part of their enduring counter-piracy mission in the Gulf of Aden. The departure of the BATAAN rules this out as a COA for countering the threats in the region. The only security missions provided by the U.S. Navy during this crisis have involved missile defense.

-Homefront-

USA: Events regarding ballots continue as the Maine Secretary of State unilaterally removes Trump from their state’s primary ballot. This follows Colorado re-admitting Trump to their state’s primary ballot. Several conservative-led states have threatened to remove Biden from their state’s primary ballots, though it is not yet clear as to how any of these moves will actually work out.

Analyst Comments: At the risk of laying unnecessary criticism on the forces involved, the USS BATAAN leaving theatre at a high-risk juncture does not fit with the U.S. Navy’s mission of power projection and deterrence, and provides a morale boost for Yemeni forces, who have already interpreted this move as both a victory, and as confirmation that the U.S. will not be conducting any amphibious operations within Yemen. Allowing credit where credit is due, the fleet of DDGs still O/S in the region continue to engage Yemeni drones and cruise missiles.

In the U.S. electoral shenanigans will likely continue well into the new year, but at the moment it’s not possible to determine how this situation will shake out. Until concrete actions are undertaken, the claims being made are just talk. Virtually no one is under the impression that legitimacy will be a factor in the 2024 election season, but the recent battles regarding primary ballots will likely be used as a jumping off point for more serious actions later in the year.

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Analyst: S2A

END REPORT

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RR The Wire 2200Z December 28, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR

DTG: 220028Z DEC 23

ICOD: 210028Z DEC 23

CONTROLS: Public Release

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BLUF: THREATS TO SHIPPING CONTINUE IN RED SEA. U.S. REBUILDS AIRFIELD IN PACIFIC, DRAWING IRE OF CHINA.

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Red Sea/HOA: As maritime shipping begins to resume (to some degree) through the Bab el Mandeb Strait, interesting AIS transponder data has been noted by observers. In the metadata broadcast by a ship’s AIS transponder, short messages are being transmitted to dissuade targeting by Yemen. Over the past couple of weeks, it was common to see ships inserting the text “ARMED GUARDS ONBOARD” in the data transmitted by their transponder. Now, several ships have been noted to change this to “NO CONTACT ISRAEL” as a method of conveying that their ship has no affiliation with Israel. AC: Though how successful this will be is not known, it is interesting to note as this is yet another overt demonstration of the lack of confidence in the protection provided by naval vessels. As a reminder, Yemeni forces have ordered all ships to leave their AIS transponders on, whereas some reports indicate vessels being urged by various authorities to turn off their transponders when transiting the Red Sea to avoid targeting. This complicates efforts to identify the true number of vessels transiting the choke point. So far, many maritime shipping companies appear to be “splitting the difference” and mitigating risk by sending some ships through the Red Sea, and others around the Cape.

South Pacific: Chinese officials have urged defense forces to remain on “high alert” over the coming months, in response to U.S. strategic moves in the region. The U.S. is currently refurbishing an old WWII airbase on Tinian Island, a sparsely populated island approximately 90 NM north of Guam. The U.S. airbase on this island was abandoned in 1947, and recently efforts have been undertaken to reclaim the airfield from the jungle so as to serve as another critical staging base for aircraft in the event of a war in the South Pacific.

Analyst Comments: Reclaiming Tinian Island has historical implications as well, which are probably the reasoning behind Chinese apprehension (in addition to the obvious military reasons). Tinian Island was the base from which the 509th Composite Group was stationed, and the point of departure for the B-29 Superfortresses which dropped the atomic weapons on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Reclaiming this airfield not only reactivates a vital base of operations, but also sends a clear message to the entire South Pacific region.

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Analyst: S2A

END REPORT

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RR The Wire 1700Z December 27, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR

DTG: 170027Z DEC 23

ICOD: 160027Z DEC 23

CONTROLS: Public Release

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BLUF: MAERSK ALLEGEDLY RESUMES SHIPPING IN RED SEA. U.S. BORDER CRISIS DEEPENS.

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Central America: Drought conditions in Panama create worst delays seen yet for ships transiting the Panama Canal. AC: As a reminder, the drought in Panama has been ongoing for months, causing delays for all ships transiting the choke point. Ironically, the region saw better-than-expected rainfall during November, which has alleviated the problems significantly. However, over the past few days the lake that feeds fresh water to the locks systems essential for the transit of ships has been too low, causing more delays. In the context of global shipping routes feeling strain, this is important to note as the cost increases incurred by shipping companies will be passed on to the consumer.

Red Sea/HOA: US CENTCOM announced that the USS LABOON (DDG 58) and aircraft from the USS EISENHOWER CSG shot down twelve drones, three ASCMs, and two LACMs yesterday. These engagements come as Maersk announces the resumption of shipping through the Red Sea.

AC: It is unclear as to if Maersk will actually be resuming shipping through the region. Ships have been scheduled to make the transit over the coming weeks, but doctrinally speaking, the adversary always gets a vote in future plans. Yemen has demonstrated their ability to target ships in the Bab el Mandeb Strait, even with substantial U.S. Navy protection. If commercial ships begin to resume normal operations in the Red Sea, we will see an increase in targeting as Yemen has learned valuable Anti-Shipping combat experience over the past few weeks.

Gaza/Israel: The war continues as before. Israeli operations have expanded in Gaza as the fighting becomes even more brutal on both sides. Attacks from Hezbollah have intensified in the north as rocket attacks become more numerous and frequent. Hezbollah has also demonstrated the ability to regularly target locations deep inside Israel. AC: Though details are sketchy at best, some sources indicate that Hezbollah has targeted Iron Dome missile defense sites in Capri with laser-guided munitions. If these reports are true, the munitions in question are probably Basir 155mm artillery shells of likely Iranian origin (which itself is a copy of the old Soviet 2K25 Krasnopol system). Though unconfirmed reporting is not definitive by any means, if this is true this would be both a substantial escalation of the conflict in the north, and also likely the first operational test (by Hezbollah) of these advanced weapons systems.

-Homefront-

USA: Border crisis deepens following another surge of illegal immigrants during the Christmas holiday weekend. Some media outlets are reporting (via confidential sources) that around 30,000 illegals were detained over the weekend. AC: Though independent verification is not possible yet, these numbers are in line with the severity of the latest illegal immigrant surge. As a reminder, almost all of these “detentions” and “apprehensions” are temporary and do not result in immediate deportation, but rather transportation deeper into America’s interior.

Analyst Comments: The conflict in the Red Sea is the epitome of an age-old idea within the field of insurgency. The Houthis only have to be lucky once, the U.S. Navy has to be lucky every single time. If the U.S. Navy (and other coalition vessels) cannot provide reliable protection for commercial vessels, the global maritime community will eventually respond. Even the highly-manipulated financial markets (which have not responded appropriately to this crisis) cannot remain grounded in fantasy forever. In due time, missile shortages are going to catch up with the U.S. Navy…shortages that are not present in Yemen.

RR The Wire 2330Z December 24, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR

DTG: 233024Z DEC 23

ICOD: 223024Z DEC 23

CONTROLS: Public Release

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BLUF: SANTA CLAUS IS COMING TO TOWN.

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-International Events-

Santa has departed the North Pole, and has begun his yearly journey around the world. A U.S. military radar site in Greenland first picked up Santa’s sleigh a few minutes after take off. Just a few moments later, personnel at the arctic research station in Svalbard, Norway were able to see the red light of Rudolph’s nose as Santa flew overhead.

Owing to the tremendous speed at which Santa travels are various technological improvements that have been made to his sleigh this year. The lead Elf team in charge of maintenance and northern transportation has confirmed that new hypersonic upgrades have improved Santa’s sleigh, allowing him to reach speeds higher than before.

If you want to track Santa’s sleigh in real time, NORAD maintains a tracking website at: www.noradsanta.org.

Analyst Comments: Regular Wire reporting will continue on December 27th, pending any emergency issues. Thank you all for your support this year, and we hope that peace can prevail in the new year. Merry Christmas to all, and to all a good night.

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Analyst: S2A

END REPORT

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RR The Wire 1900Z December 23, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR

DTG: 190023Z DEC 23

ICOD: 180023Z DEC 23

CONTROLS: Public Release

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BLUF: MARITIME ATTACKS EXPAND TO INDIAN OCEAN. SPAIN, ITALY LEAVE RED SEA TF.

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Indian Ocean: The M/V CHEM PLUTO was attacked with a kamikaze drone in the northern Indian Ocean, approximately 200 NM SW of Gujarat, India. AC: Though no one has yet claimed responsibility for this attack, this matches the typical attack profile of Iran, who has a history of conducting similar attacks in the same area.

Red Sea/HOA: Italy and Spain have followed France in leaving the US-lead maritime security coalition OPN PROSPERITY GUARDIAN. Both Spain and Italy have left this coalition due to the refusal to place their ships under US command. Some nations have claimed that they will be supporting the mission, but have pledged no naval support. Per the latest press releases, the Netherlands will be sending two staff officers, and Denmark will be sending one staff officer. Australia will be sending 11 staff officers, but no ships ATT. The U.K. has pledged to commit one ship (the HMS DIAMOND, already in theatre) to the operation.

-Analyst Comments-

This operation has (in effect) collapsed before it even began. The U.S. Navy does not need a coalition to provide maritime security, but the explicit lack of cooperation from allies speaks volumes on the diplomatic front. Since the dawn of naval warfare, projecting power around the globe via maritime supremacy has been a strong indicator of a nation’s standing in the world. If the U.S. has lost support for one for one of the simplest naval operations that is doctrinally possible (counter-piracy and missile defense against a non-state actor), this does not bode well for the U.S. Navy or for the United States’ standing in the world. This also highlights the issues of naval command that would be huge vulnerabilities in the event that conflict breaks out in the South China Sea. If the strongest naval force in human history cannot reliably defend unarmed merchant vessels, and leads the Task Force so poorly that allied naval powers publicly don’t want to be a part of it, there is little chance for success in a conflict that involves a near-peer threat.

Strategically, it is possible that the U.S. intends to launch an offensive operation against Yemen and/or Iran. After all, the US Navy has already demonstrated that, despite best efforts (and outstanding work on the part of the DDG crews so far) missile defense is challenging even under the best of conditions. As such, the U.S. is probably planning operations to strike targets within Yemen to ease the pressure on defensive efforts. However, even though DoD leadership has financial interest in Raytheon (the supplier for most of the munitions used by the Navy so far), the sheer lack of production capacity has cast doubts on what the DoD’s actual plan is. Following the Ukrainian war and the war in Gaza, US weapons stockpiles are at an all time low, and it’s highly likely that the DoD simply doesn’t have the munitions to launch a major offensive campaign. If OPN PROSPERITY GUARDIAN is really a cover for a more offensive effort, this would explain major allies parting with the plan, as no major nationstate has the desire to become entangled in yet another war that even the U.S. can’t pay for. Though it is costing up to $2 million per missile to shoot down Yemeni missiles/drones, other nations may see this as vastly cheaper than launching a major military campaign.

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Analyst: S2A

END REPORT

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RR The Wire 2230Z December 22, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR

DTG: 223022Z DEC 23

ICOD: 213022Z DEC 23

CONTROLS: Public Release

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BLUF: CONFLICT CONTINUES IN RED SEA. DOMESTIC U.S. POLITICS REMAINS TUMULTUOUS.

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Red Sea/HOA: Tensions remain between the allies forming a maritime protection force in the Red Sea. Operation PROSPERITY GUARDIAN is the multi-national Task Force being led by the U.S. Navy to provide security for ships transiting the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. France, having initially agreed to take part and commit forces, has broken from the Task Force reportedly due to poor leadership and lack of organization. France will only be providing maritime security for French-flagged ships ATT. AC: This crisis has not only highlighted leadership problems within the U.S. DoD, but also the enduring problems within the US Navy’s Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) program. The LCS vessels produced in this program were designed from the keel up with this exact mission in mind, but following decades of scandal, very few of them are functional. So far, only traditional Aegis support (via DDGs and CGs) has provided protection for vessels in the Red Sea. However, as OPN PROSPERITY GUARDIAN has not really gotten underway yet, the level of support the US Navy can provide in the region is not clear. Commercial shipping companies, either unwilling to wait for the US Navy to coordinate defenses, or lacking faith in this operation altogether, have continued to re-route ships around the Cape of Good Hope.

-Homefront-

USA: The recent scandal surrounding the removal of candidates from primary ballots has widened. Following the removal of Donald Trump from Colorado’s Republican primary ballot, several conservative-majority states have threatened to remove Joe Biden from their ballots. Several Democrat-run states have already removed Democrat candidates from their ballots, only allowing one candidate (Joe Biden) to run in their primary elections.

New York: A propane truck crashed into a railroad bridge in Glenville, resulting in a large explosion and subsequent fire. The driver remains hospitalized for severe burns. Initial reporting indicates the truck may have been over height for the bridge it was passing under.

-Analyst Comments-

It is difficult to determine how the situation will shake out regarding ballots. Right now, there is a lot of talk, but few actual documents to examine to arrive at a definitive analysis. It is not uncommon for state-level party leadership to ban certain candidates from running under their own party, but this year the number of Democrat-run states that have only allowed Biden to run under their banner seems higher. Likewise, the removal (or blocking in some way) of Republican candidates from running due to eligibility being removed via a Supreme Court decision is unheard of. The potential for divisions between states (and more importantly, state agencies) could lead to more serious flashpoints than standard civil unrest.

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Analyst: S2A

END REPORT

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RR The Wire 1400Z December 21, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR

DTG: 140021Z DEC 23

ICOD: 130021Z DEC 23

CONTROLS: Public Release

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BLUF: TRUMP REMOVED FROM COLORADO BALLOT PENDING APPEAL. CONFLICT ESCALATES IN RED SEA.

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Red Sea/HOA: Conflict escalates following Yemen’s announcement of further combat operations in the Bab el Mandeb Strait. Yemen has threatened to lay mines in the strait, and has increased the targeting of what few vessels have attempted to transit the Red Sea, despite a heavy US Navy presence throughout the region.

Most commercial shipping companies have rerouted their vessels to the longer route around Africa. At the moment, the only oil tankers transiting the Red Sea are those transporting Russian or Iranian oil, which have been granted permission to pass unharmed by Yemen.

South Pacific: In response to events in the Middle East, Malaysia has announced that Israeli ships will be restricted from using Malaysian ports, and from anchoring within their territorial waters. AC: It is unclear as to if the same criteria used by Yemen to discern Israeli ships will also be used by Malaysia. So far, it seems as though the Malaysian restrictions only apply to the Israeli shipping company ZIM. However, any ship destined for Israeli ports is likely to fall under the new docking restrictions.

-Homefront-

USA: The situation at the southern border remains tense as authorities struggle to process tens of thousands of illegal immigrants into the U.S. following the latest surge. Most of the legal border crossing checkpoints in the Del Rio sector remain either closed or operational with limited hours. Substantial delays are also expected for commercial traffic (either inbound or outbound) due to the shortage of CBP personnel. Per CBP sources, 200,000+ illegal immigrants have been processed into the U.S. during the month of December alone.

CO: The Colorado Supreme Court has ruled that Donald Trump is ineligible to run for office, removing him from the ballot of the 2024 Presidential election. Following this judgement, both Maine and California are also exploring similar options to ban Trump from the ballot in their states. AC: This is almost certainly a political move that under normal circumstances would not stand up to an appeal.

-Analyst Comments-

Consideration must be given to the follow-on effects in the event that the CO judgement is allowed to stand. As other states are also entertaining the idea of banning Trump from the ballot, flashpoints will emerge as long-standing legal precedents are shattered by politically motivated judicial rulings.

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Analyst: S2A

END REPORT

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RR The Wire 2300Z December 19, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR

DTG: 230019Z DEC 23

ICOD: 220019Z DEC 23

CONTROLS: Public Release

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BLUF: U.S. CLOSES EAGLE PASS BORDER CROSSING, HALTING TRADE.

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-Homefront-

USA: The border crisis deepens following a surge of illegal immigrants being granted entry into the U.S. in Texas. The border crossings at Eagle Pass and in El Paso have been closed so that CBP agents can be allocated to process the tens of thousands of people in the latest surge. Union Pacific representatives have urged the re-opening of the Eagle Pass crossing, citing that 45% of all trade between US/Mexico crosses the border at this site. AC: This is not the first time that international trade has been affected by illegal immigration, as operations at various ports of entry have been closed at times in response to large groups of immigrants causing delays. However, this latest surge has required the reassignment of most CBP agents to assist in processing immigrants into the US, which has directly impacted rail logistics.

-Analyst Comments-

Following the situation at the southern US border, travelers have noted substantial numbers of illegal immigrants on domestic U.S. flights. In Texas, the TSA has emplaced special checkpoints at several airports that allow illegal immigrants to be processed through airport security without proper identification (using the documents provided by CBP instead of the documentation TSA normally accepts). Considering the recent revelations regarding the surveillance of J6 participants, and the use of federal Air Marshals to “hand out water bottles” to illegals at the border, the risks of air travel are likely higher throughout this holiday season. Though there are no specific threats perceivable via open sources, common sense would indicate that the sheer volume of undocumented persons being funneled through the border (and into secure spaces) does not bode well for national security.

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Analyst: S2A

END REPORT

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RR The Wire 2130Z December 18, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR

DTG: 213018Z DEC 23

ICOD: 203018Z DEC 23

CONTROLS: Public Release

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BLUF: SHIPPING COMPANIES CONTINUE TO HALT OPERATIONS IN RED SEA.

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Red Sea/HOA: Yemeni attacks on commercial shipping continue. So far, most of the major commercial shipping companies in the world have announced a cessation of operations in the Red Sea until further notice. The list includes the following container shipping companies: Maersk, Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC), CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, and Evergreen. 

This morning, most major oil tanker companies have also announced a halt to the transit of their oil tankers through the Red Sea. Among the list are: Euronav, British Petroleum (BP), Frontline Ltd.

In response to the recent escalation of targeting in the Red Sea, various nations have stepped up counter-piracy patrols in the region, in addition to providing missile defense for passing cargo vessels. This coalition of vessels includes the USS BATAAN ARG and the USS DWIGHT D. EISENHOWER CSG, along with varying support vessels. AC: These defensive tactics will probably not be effective in the long run, as Yemen’s success rate is comparatively high, considering the presence of Naval ships that have already been deployed in the Red Sea. If coalition forces were able to provide adequate defenses, all of the major shipping companies in the world would not be transferring to the longer route around Africa.

-Homefront-

USA: Japan’s largest steel company, Nippon Steel Corporation has agreed to purchase US Steel for $14 billion.

-Analyst Comments-

As expected, the situation in the Red Sea has rapidly become a global problem, not just a concern for trade between Asia and Europe. Oil companies ceasing operations has already had an immediate impact on petroleum prices (though perhaps not as much as it should, probably due to the heavily manipulated markets).

As a reminder, the political and governance situation in Yemen is a complex issue. As such, most media outlets have referred to the forces conducting these attacks as “Houthi rebels” or “Yemeni rebels”. This is due to the international hesitance to recognize Yemeni forces as the legitimate government. Houthi rebels conducted a military coup in 2015, seizing the capitol and overthrowing the government. Since then, Yemen has in effect been ruled by a military junta, which exercises control over most of the country. In short, the coup worked and the Houthis control Yemen, but most nations don’t want to recognize this, so the wording of reports is altered to not grant de facto recognition to this government. The government of Yemen that existed prior to 2015 has zero control over the nation, and since the coup, the “rebel” forces have been the most legitimate form of governance in Yemen.

Though seemingly a useless debate of semantics, this wording has legal implications for military action. If Yemeni forces are classified as “terrorists”, preexisting counterterrorism operations could be used to nest any combat operations under. Conversely, if the Houthis were recognized as the leader of a legitimate government, international sovereignty complications would likely arise.

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Analyst: S2A

END REPORT

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RR The Wire 2200Z December 16, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR

DTG: 220016Z DEC 23

ICOD: 210016Z DEC 23

CONTROLS: Public Release

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BLUF: CONFLICT ESCALATES IN THE RED SEA.

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Red Sea/HOA: Tensions increase as Yemeni forces increase attacks substantially. CENTCOM reports the USS CARNEY (DDG 64) has successfully shot down 14 drones in the past 24 hours. This morning the HMS DIAMOND (D34) also successfully engaged a drone targeting commercial shipping.

South America: Venezuela and Guyana have begun negotiations regarding the Essequibo situation. Negotiations began on Thursday and will likely continue for the next few days. Both parties have issued statements affirming the importance of peace in the region.

-Analyst Comments-

Interestingly and somewhat surprisingly, both Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and Guyanese President Irfaan Ali met in person for these initial meetings (which are being held in the neutral archipelago of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines). Normally, diplomats of varying importance take the reins of such similar situations. Having both heads of state take such a direct role in negotiations (at least so far) indicates that both parties understand the severity of this issue. So far, no solid agreement has been reached, and it is too soon to tell if a diplomatic solution is viable at this stage.

Regarding commercial shipping, Maersk’s stock actually increased sharply following yesterday’s report. This comes as investors are optimistic that Maersk (having to take the longer route around Africa), will now be able to charge more for shipping services, leading to presumably increased revenue. However, this assessment is rather short-sighted as global trade depends heavily on both the Panama and Suez Canals. There is a reason as to why the Suez route is one of the most heavily trafficked waterways in the world. In the short term, shipping companies will be able to charge more for cargo services…but in due time maintenance, fuel costs, personnel issues, losses due to weather, and opportunity cost resulting in the sheer lack of hulls themselves are all variables that are hard to predict and will take a toll on profits. If the Red Sea route weren’t the best, most profitable option, it wouldn’t need to exist. Optimism regarding potential profits is gambling that the short-term profits will be able to outweigh the long-term costs. As most financial institutions and markets are very risk-averse in almost every possible way right now, this adds credence to the idea that the global financial sector is divorced from reality when considering the importance of logistics.

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Analyst: S2A

END REPORT

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