S2 Underground

RR The Wire 1830Z December 15, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR

DTG: 183015Z DEC 23

ICOD: 173015Z DEC 23

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BLUF: MAERSK SUSPENDS OPERATIONS IN RED SEA DUE TO SECURITY THREATS.

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Red Sea/HOA: Yemeni forces hijack the M/V RUEN. Yemeni forces attempted to hijack the M/V ARDMORE ENCOUNTER, which was unsuccessful. After boarders were repelled from this vessel, Yemeni forces launched and struck the vessel with two ASCMs. The USS MASON (DDG 57) was also recently targeted again by kamikaze drones. A plethora of US Navy vessels have come under numerous attacks over the past few weeks as well.

In response to these events, the Danish shipping company Maersk has announced a pause of all shipping operations in the Red Sea. Maersk is the largest shipping company in the world, and accounts for about 15% of all global trade. Hapag-Lloyd has also made a similar announcement regarding the cessation of operations in the Red Sea for now. AC: This is a very serious event that will likely have direct and immediate consequences for most international trade…though perhaps not in the ways one might expect.

Company representatives have specifically stated that their ships are also not transiting around the continent of Africa, the only other feasible route for Eurasian trade. Though details are sketchy at best, this may suggest a global bottleneck of trade. Maersk may also have inside knowledge of other factors that would make the weeks-long trip around the Cape of Good Hope not the best option. Though somewhat of an analytical leap, the “pause” (rather than immediately shifting to the longer route around Africa) suggests that at least Maersk believes that the issues of targeting and piracy will be short lived.

-Analyst Comments-

The recent targeting of international shipping in the Red Sea highlights the problems within a seemingly unrelated factor…economics. Even just a couple of years ago, a simple shipping accident caused global strife in the Suez Canal. The incident involving the M/V EVER GIVEN resulted in the international shipping community being thrown into chaos for a few days. International financial markets were also affected immediately, taking a downturn mere hours after an event occurred; an event that we knew at the time was not terrorism-related.

Within the past few weeks, OPEC has announced substantial production cuts. A petroleum war is on the brink in South America. Multiple ships have been struck with drones and cruise missiles in the Red Sea. There is a hot war in the Holy Land….and all financial markets reach record highs. Any one of these events just a couple of years ago would have resulted in the global financial sector taking massive (albeit probably temporary) hits. One of the largest shipping companies in the world announces a pause in operations, in an area that handles 10% of all trade on Earth…and the effect on global finance is barely noticeable (as of the writing of this report). Even Maersk’s own stock didn’t have the slightest perceivable dip upon the announcement of this “pause”. No economic expertise is needed to perceive that the substantial events of the past few weeks having little to no effect on the pulse of global finance probably means that economic data is no longer representative of the severity of the situation.

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Analyst: S2A

END REPORT

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RR The Wire 2130Z December 14, 2023

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DTG: 213014Z DEC 23

ICOD: 203014Z DEC 23

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BLUF: CONGRESS PASSES EXTENSION OF FISA SECTION 702.

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: U.K. Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) center reports the interception of a distress call from a vessel reporting a boarding incident in the eastern Gulf of Aden. Many reports of irregular activity have been made over the past few weeks as Yemeni forces seek to continue the targeting of Israeli-affiliated shipping in the Red Sea.

South America: Despite little new information on the Guyana situation, tensions remain high in the region. Venezuela has issued a 90-day ultimatum to ExxonMobil for the cessation of all operations within the Stabroek Block oil field in the EEZ of Guyana. This ultimatum expires in March, 2024.

-Homefront-

USA: The House of Representatives overwhelmingly passes the FY 2024 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), including the controversial extension of FISA Section 702. This $886 billion annual defense bill was passed immediately before Congress begins their vacation break for the holidays.

-Analyst Comments-

As threats to maritime shipping continue, the costs associated with commercial shipping will likely increase. Though the number of vessels being targeted in the Red Sea is small (considering this is one of the most highly trafficked waterways in the world), direct kinetic threats to shipping usually attract international attention. As such, most nations with the ability to project Naval power have quietly increased presence patrols in the southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.

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Analyst: S2A

END REPORT

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RR The Wire 2330Z December 13, 2023

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DTG: 233013Z DEC 23

ICOD: 223013Z DEC 23

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BLUF: THREATS TO SHIPPING CONTINUE IN THE RED SEA.

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: The United Nations General Assembly votes in favor of the implementation of a humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza. AC: Like most matters within the field of international diplomacy, these resolutions have no real power. However, as the final vote was 153 nations for, and 10 nations against (with 23 abstentions) this is a good indicator of international sentiment regarding the current conflict in Gaza.

In the Red Sea, Yemeni forces attacked the M/V STRINDA with a cruise missile. Initial reporting indicates the vessel was traveling IVO the Bab el Mandeb Strait at the time of the strike. AC: Though Norwegian flagged, this chemical tanker was scheduled to make a port call in Israel next month. This comes on the heels of the French frigate LANGUEDOC (D653) reporting the interception of two Yemeni drones attempting to target her in the same area four days ago.

Europe: A report by the Joint Committee on the National Security Strategy indicates that much of the critical infrastructure throughout the United Kingdom is exceptionally vulnerable to cyberattacks. AC: This comes as no surprise as cyberattack threats remain constant throughout most of the western world.

-Homefront-

USA: The U.S. sends an additional $200 million to Ukraine. Today, the Dow Jones industrial average closed at an all-time high of 37,090. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ finished the day with similar highs.

-Analyst Comments-

Economic pundits are claiming these numbers are the result of the Federal Reserve signaling rate cuts next year. However, exercising caution would be wise when assessing risk in highly-manipulated financial markets.

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Analyst: S2A

END REPORT

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RR The Wire 2030Z December 12, 2023

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DTG: 203012Z DEC 23

ICOD: 193012Z DEC 23

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BLUF: REVELATIONS OF DOMESTIC U.S. SPYING CONTINUE. ISRAEL FACES FIERCE RESISTANCE IN KHAN YOUNIS.

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: Israel makes progress in the consolidation of the northern pocket encircling Gaza City. In the north, Hezbollah continues harassing attacks and border skirmishes as before. However, IDF units have experienced heavy resistance in Khan Younis to the south, and have taken heavy casualties. IED attacks and extreme-close-range ambushes are very common as Israeli forces advance deeper into the Gaza Strip. Hamas militants continue rocket attacks regularly, though the volume of which is difficult to judge. Regarding civilians, the humanitarian crisis worsens as the flow of humanitarian aid is not enough to keep up with the demand. AC: With most structures in Gaza City suffering damage of some kind, hundreds of thousands of people are displaced or living amongst the rubble of their former homes. This creates challenges for the distribution of international aid. In the north, IDF officials have repeatedly issued warnings to Hezbollah over the past few days, indicating concerns with Hezbollah possibly opening up another major front in earnest. So far, Hezbollah rocket attacks and ATGM attacks on border checkpoints and LP/OPs have been regular, but not indicative of a major Hezbollah military operation.

-Homefront-

USA: A Congressional investigation has revealed that many popular pharmacies in the U.S. share customer medical records with law enforcement, without a warrant. In the letter sent to the US Department of Health and Human Services, questions also remain regarding the investigative tactics that would require the medical information contained by a pharmacy. AC: Though not explicitly stated or referenced in the official Congressional documentation, the implications of this are concerning considering context of the medical targeting that has taken place over the past few years.

In a similar vein, Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) is coming to an end in December. Consequently, Congress has been drafting an update to this legislation over the past few months to pick up when the current law expires. However, legal analysts have noted that while the update to Section 702 is being touted as being less-privacy-invasive for Americans, the inverse is actually true.

-Analyst Comments-

It has been a rough week for domestic spying revelations for the American public. Regarding the scandal surrounding Section 702 of FISA, as the revisions currently stand the proposed changes read like a Patriot Act 2.0, granting virtually unlimited domestic surveillance capabilities to most federal agencies, all without a warrant. Currently, FISA regulations are intended to allow spying on non-US Persons for homeland security without a warrant. As such, a behemoth of organizational efforts exist to streamline this surveillance process. However, any US Persons who may end up part of an investigation would require a warrant and justification to be included in surveillance operations. The latest drafts of the update to Section 702 remove this requirement in most cases, allowing federal tactics intended to surveil non-citizens to be used against US citizens. Most of the specific concerns come from the changing of definitions. This is a classic tactic to slowly mission-creep legislation without much notice or attention. First pass the law, with all eyes on it, then over the years “update” or “modernize” the terms contained within, which ends up changing the entire meaning of the original text. This appears to be the source of much consternation regarding this legislation.

RR The Wire 2030Z December 11, 2023

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DTG: 203011Z DEC 23

ICOD: 193011Z DEC 23

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BLUF: TENSIONS INCREASE IN THE RED SEA. UKRAINE PEACE TALKS LIKELY TO BEGIN IN JANUARY.

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Red Sea: Yemen announces what amounts to a blockade of the Red Sea for all Israeli-affiliated shipping. Yemeni forces have claimed that they will target all commercial shipping owned by or affiliated with Israeli companies. AC: It is unclear as to what Yemen’s standards are for shipping being “Israeli affiliated”. Throughout this conflict so far, many groups opposed to Israel have targeted American forces (such as American military bases in Iraq and Syria), or other nations that are in some way linked to Israel. Adding in international shipping norms complicates the situation further. Commercial shipping, on any given day, is a grand shell game. It is rare for a ship to be registered in the nation that it supplies. For instance, the M/V GALAXY LEADER (the first ship captured by Yemeni forces) has a rather confusing history. The vessel itself physically carries the flag of the Commonwealth of the Bahamas, a former British colony. This vessel was chartered by a Japanese company (NYK) to transport vehicles. However, the vessel is owned by Ray Car Carriers, which despite being registered as a business in the Isle of Man, was founded by an Israeli business magnate. Regarding the crew physically operating the vessel, 17 members of the crew are Filipino, and the rest are from an assortment of nations such as Romania, Ukraine, Bulgaria, and so on. In the case of this one ship, at least a dozen nations are involved at some point regarding the operation of this vessel. This means that it’s rather difficult to determine what Yemen’s criteria is for a vessel being “Israeli-affiliated”, which in turn increases the risk for virtually all commercial shipping transiting the Red Sea.

Europe: In Switzerland, several media groups have announced the scheduling of peace talks regarding the Ukrainian war. During his visit to Argentina, Ukrainian President Zelensky floated the idea that peace talks will begin at the World Economic Forum, the day before that event gets underway in January. AC: If these claims are true, the peace talks taking place at such an infamous organization clearly sends a message as to the controlling interests at play regarding a post-war Ukraine.

-Homefront-

USA: The DoD announces the implementation of the Arms Export Control Act (AECA) to send arms to Israel. This Act allows the DoD to bypass the normal process and send arms to Israel without Congressional approval. In this case, this law is allegedly being used to send tank shells to Israel, though without Congressional oversight there is little confirmation of any of these details.

RR The Wire 1830Z December 9, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR

DTG: 183009Z DEC 23

ICOD: 173009Z DEC 23

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BLUF: ELECTION TURMOIL IN GUATEMALA. U.S. BEGINS PROCESS OF EXPEDITING AFGHAN IMMIGRANTS FROM PAKISTAN.

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

South America: Political turmoil strikes Guatemala regarding recent elections. The Public Prosecutor’s office is calling for criminal charges against President-Elect Bernardo Arévalo due to “election irregularities”. AC: Despite the claims of a coup grabbing headlines, there is more to the story than meets the eye. The specific “irregularities” that have been found by the Public Prosecutor’s office involve the alleged falsification of polling station certificates, and the manipulation of computer systems. However, the forensic evidence of these claims has not yet been made public. The claims of a “coup” have come about after the Public Prosecutor’s office has submitted a complaint to the Supreme Electoral Tribunal to nullify and investigate the election.

Middle East: Following the visit of US Assistant Secretary of State Juliana Noyes to Pakistan a few days ago, the U.S. has begun the process of expediting the immigration of Afghan refugees into the United States. As a reminder, Pakistan began the process of deporting all undocumented immigrants last month, which included around 1.7 million Afghan refugees.

South Africa: Yesterday the Economic Freedom Fighter (EFF) party carried out a large nationwide voter registration campaign, along with rallies in support of the EFF.

-Homefront-

USA: The Senator Menendez corruption scandal continues following the revelation of new information. In June of 2022, the FBI raided Senator Bob Menendez’s home, finding $480,000 in cash, and a stack of gold bars. Recent disclosures highlight that some of the serial numbers on these gold bars match those of gold bars that were reported as being stolen during an armed robbery in 2013. These gold bars were allegedly used as payment for a bribe by the Egyptian government to influence the Senator.

-Analyst Comments-

In South Africa, the electoral interests of the EFF are certain to increase tensions during the 2024 election season, and could result in boiling points being reached in an already tumultuous society. Recent voter registration events are certainly a move intended to expand their influence and solidify political control in provinces such as Western Cape (which historically has been challenging for the EFF to get a foothold in). As a reminder, the EFF is South Africa’s third-largest political party, having recently risen to prominence following controversy surrounding the routinely militant and violent tactics used by supporters. The leader of the EFF is Julius Malema, who has been at the center of controversy following his calls for violence against white farmers.

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Analyst: S2A

END REPORT

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RR The Wire 2200Z December 8, 2023

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DTG: 220008Z DEC 23

ICOD: 213008Z DEC 23

CONTROLS: Public Release

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BLUF: CHINA BEGINS MILITARY EXERCISES IVO TAIWAN. US VETOES GAZA CEASEFIRE PROPOSAL AT UN.

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

South Pacific: China launches military exercises in the Taiwan Strait. AC: This is almost certainly a power-projection move intended to coincide with Taiwan’s own exercises to test defenses against a probable Chinese invasion. However, Taiwanese defense forces have noted the use of a spy balloon, similar to those which violated US airspace earlier this year.

South America: No new major developments on situation in Guyana.

Middle East: Fighting remains intense in Khan Younis as IDF troops seek to maintain a foothold in Gaza’s second-largest city. Skirmishes remain constant along the Lebanese border, as well as in West Bank. Today, the U.S. vetoes a UN Security Council resolution to call for a ceasefire within Gaza. AC: So far, the U.S. has rejected all proposals for a ceasefire as brought before the UN Security Council.

-Homefront-

USA: Following reports that the Senate has denied the latest aid package for Ukraine, limited unconfirmed reporting indicates conflict among defense officials. Specifically, SECDEF Lloyd Austin is reported to have directly threatened to deploy US troops to Ukraine, if the aid package is not approved. However, other reports indicate this quote is missing context, or the exact wording of this quote is incorrect.

-Analyst Comments-

Regardless of the specific wording, the sentiments expressed by defense officials remain dedicated to the continuation of the Ukrainian war, or more specifically defense production.

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Analyst: S2A

END REPORT

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RR The Wire 1830Z December 7, 2023

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DTG: 183007Z DEC 23

ICOD: 173007Z DEC 23

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BLUF: U.S. BEGINS INVOLVEMENT IN VENEZUELA/GUYANA DISPUTE.

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: UN Secretary-General António Guterres invokes Article 99 of the United Nations Charter regarding the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. AC: Invoking Article 99 is a rarely utilized (and largely symbolic) gesture intended to raise awareness on a particular issue. In effect, this action mostly schedules a meeting to discuss the Gaza issue. This move is probably intended to keep the spotlight on the exceptionally desperate humanitarian crisis that is worsening within Gaza.

South America: Yesterday a Guyanese military helicopter crashed due to possible bad weather in the Esequibo near the Venezuelan border. Most of the personnel on board were high ranking military officers. Due to the restrictive terrain, rescue crews have not yet accessed the crash site. However, signs of life have reportedly been observed from the air. US SOUTHCOM has announced they will be conducting joint military exercises within Guyana’s airspace. AC: The “joint” nature of these exercises is probably overstated as Guyana has no attack aircraft whatsoever.

-Analyst Comments-

The US military flights within Esequibo are probably intended to deter Venezuelan aggression in the region, as well as to quietly serve as intelligence collection opportunities. However, the concept of deterrence assumes that the adversarial force knows and understands the consequences of such action. Right now, the chances are high for a random soldier in the jungle to fire off a MANPAD at any aircraft they don’t visually recognize. As such, the risks of conducting these “deterrence” operations are very high. Relying on countermeasures onboard aircraft as a safety measure is also a risky gamble, considering the adversary being one of the most technologically advanced military forces on the continent. A shootdown incident involving a US aircraft would be a great justification for the US to become directly involved in what would immediately become a wider conflict.

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Analyst: S2A

END REPORT

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BLUF: VENEZUELA BEGINS PREPARATION FOR OPERATIONS WITHIN ESEQUIBO.

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Europe: In Germany, the Ministry of the Interior for the state of Saxony-Anhalt has mandated that all naturalization candidates must declare their support for Israel as part of the naturalization process. Specifically, those seeking German citizenship in this region will be required to provide a written statement declaring their support for Israel. If this oath is not provided, this will lead to the denial of naturalization for those seeking German citizenship. AC: The documentation released so far indicates that candidates are not free to choose their own wording, as local authorities have been mandated to set the specific wording used in the oath sworn to Israel.

South America: Venezuela demonstrates several indications and warnings of an impending invasion. Venezuela has declared the Esequibo region to be Venezuelan territory and has added the region to their official national map. Several officials have also declared that Venezuela will be creating a military zone in the region and issuing new ID cards to those living in remote villages throughout the area.

-Analyst Comments-

In terms of a military invasion, the actions by Venezuela may not result in much news due to the remote nature of the terrain. Most of this region is uncharted territory; there are no major cities or major highways in this “disputed” area, with this region hosting some of the largest untouched jungle on the continent. As such, Venezuela can dominate the terrain by creating FOBs in critical areas, by which oil surveys can be protected. From these Centers of Gravity, Venezuelan troops can occupy the region, without exercising complete control over every inch of the terrain. This may be good enough for Venezuela’s oil-pursuing intentions, but this does present vulnerabilities that can be exploited by a much smaller force.

However, this extremely remote terrain means that Venezuela’s actions can technically be described as an “invasion” or “occupation”, but will likely not take the form that many might think. Small groups of Venezuelan troops have already entered this area over the past few years, under the guise of combating illegal mining, so sporadic Venezuelan presence in the region is not unheard of. For more significant operations, Venezuela may place FOBs/firebases in the middle of the jungle and operate for weeks, with no opposition. What is likely to occur first is the establishment of Forward Arming and Refueling Points (FARPs) near the border, or just inside the Esequibo. This will be crucial to allow Venezuelan troops logistics hubs to refuel and stage operations for the construction of bases of operations within the region.

Regarding concerns this invasion may have for the Homefront, the nationstate of Guyana is largely influenced by the controlling interests of ExxonMobil, due to the extremely oil-rich nature of the region but especially since the discovery of extensive petroleum fields in 2015. ExxonMobil produces a total of roughly 600,000+ BPD from the nation of Guyana (including extensive offshore production facilities). As a reminder for perspective, OPEC+ recently announced a voluntary production cut of 1 million BPD (on top of the 1 million BPD cut already in place). The seriousness of this situation could influence the global oil markets in ways not previously anticipated, as Venezuelan military operations raise the stakes of an already tumultuous oil market. History confirms that petroleum wars tend to result in Large Scale Combat Operations (LSCO) at some point, the gravity of which is usually ignored by a populace in the days leading up to a regional conflagration. 

RR The Wire 2230Z December 5, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR

DTG: 223005Z DEC 23

ICOD: 213005Z DEC 23

CONTROLS: Public Release

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BLUF: CONFLICT CONTINUES IN GAZA AND WEST BANK. SOUTH AMERICA AWAITS VENEZEULA’S NEXT MOVE.

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: Conflict in Jenin intensifies following IDF actions in the area. Airstrikes continue to be persistent throughout much of the West Bank. Hezbollah militants in Lebanon continue rocket attacks as before.

South America: Brazilian military forces remain at a heightened state of readiness following the escalation of tensions in the region. So far, there are no solid indicators of Venezuelan actions regarding their potential annexation of Esequibo. AC: Some demonstrators in the Esequibo have conducted displays of support for Venezuela on social media. Several Venezuelan flags have been placed on strategic mountaintops in the region as well.

Europe: Among US politicians, rhetoric concerning the Ukrainian war has radically reversed course over the past few weeks. Even the most dedicated supporters of the Ukrainian war are announcing that financial and military support for Ukraine will continue to dwindle.

-HomeFront-

TX: A chemical incident at the Altivia Specialty Chemicals plant in La Porte resulted in the release of phosgene gas. This incident prompted evacuations for the local area. No word on what caused the incident.

-Analyst Comments-

It is currently unclear as to whether or not Venezuela will actually go through with plans to invade Guyana. Posts on social media (which are the only insight into the remote region) remain wildly variable and extremely unconfirmed. If Venezuela were to launch an invasion, terrain will likely be the biggest limiting factor as Guyana’s entire military (using 2018 numbers) is roughly the size of the Dallas Police Department. Additionally, if an invasion were to occur, it would be difficult to determine virtually any information as the Esequibo region is largely untouched by civilization.

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Analyst: S2A

END REPORT

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