The potential absence of Jake Retzlaff, especially as the presumed starting quarterback, significantly impacts BYU's outlook for the 2024 Big 12 football season and likely dampens any aspirations of being a "real contender" for the conference championship.

Here's why his potential absence changes the Big 12 landscape for BYU:

1. Loss of Experience and Leadership:

• Known Quantity: Retzlaff, despite his limited starts at BYU, was the most experienced quarterback on the roster with Power Five game action. He showed flashes of high-level play, particularly his ability to make plays with his arm and legs under pressure.
• Leadership Vacuum: A starting quarterback is inherently a leader, both on and off the field. Losing that established presence, even if it's a relatively new one, creates a void that is difficult to fill, especially with the high stakes of a Big 12 schedule.

2. Reliance on Unproven Talent:

• New Starters: As discussed, BYU would likely turn to McCae Hillstead, Treyson Bourguet, or potentially true freshman Bear Bachmeier. While each has talent and potential, none have proven themselves as consistent Big 12 starting quarterbacks.
• Learning Curve: The Big 12 is a tough, competitive conference. Asking a new, relatively inexperienced quarterback to step in and lead a team to a championship requires an extremely quick learning curve and a high level of performance from day one, which is a tall order.

3. Impact on Offensive Cohesion:

• Chemistry: An offense thrives on rhythm and chemistry between the quarterback and his receivers and offensive line. A change at quarterback, especially a sudden one, can disrupt this cohesion and lead to early struggles in timing and execution.
• Play-Calling Adjustments: Offensive coordinator Aaron Roderick might have to adjust play-calling to suit the strengths of a different quarterback, potentially moving away from concepts that Retzlaff was best suited for.

4. The Big 12 Landscape is Already Tough:

• No Clear Dominator (Yet): While Texas and Oklahoma have departed for the SEC, the Big 12 remains a deeply competitive conference with several strong programs. Teams like Utah (new to the Big 12), Kansas State, Oklahoma State, and Arizona have strong returning talent and coaching.
• Increased Competition: The addition of former Pac-12 teams like Utah, Arizona, Arizona State, and Colorado intensifies the competition. BYU's second year in the conference was already expected to be challenging as teams get more familiar with them.
• Preseason Odds: Even with Retzlaff, BYU was often projected in the middle or lower-middle tier of the Big 12 by preseason prognosticators and oddsmakers. His absence would likely cause those projections to drop further.

Conclusion: BYU's Contention Hopes Diminished

While BYU's coaching staff is adept at developing quarterbacks and the team has other talent on the roster (like a strong receiving corps and an improving offensive line), the loss of the presumed starting quarterback to an off-field issue of this magnitude is a significant blow to their immediate Big 12 championship aspirations. It makes it very difficult for them to be considered a "real contender" in 2024.

Instead of competing for a conference title, the focus would likely shift to developing the new quarterback, becoming bowl-eligible, and aiming for a respectable finish in the Big 12. The Big 12 title race, therefore, becomes "wide open" in the sense that one less team (BYU) is seen as having a clear path to the top, making the path for other established or rising programs more accessible.

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