Our favorite military analyst, Sim Tack, returns to the pod to assess three different conflicts reshaping global security. In Ukraine, territorial gains are tactical, not strategic; Russian economic endurance remains the real variable. In Iran, a degraded military has reached a stalemate the U.S. and Israel cannot break without regime change. And in Mali, a jihadist advance is threatening to create a new territorial caliphate... with Russia's failed security guarantee quietly accelerating the collapse.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome

(01:08) - Sim is Back

(01:56) - Is the World Overwhelming?

(04:23) - AI Briefings and Limits

(06:10) - Drones and War Evolution

(09:44) - Top Conflicts to Watch

(11:59) - Ukraine Strikes and Oil Leverage

(13:53) - Reality Check on Initiative

(18:26) - Zelensky Endgame Options

(23:28) - Russia Staying Power and Economy

(26:15) - NATO Threat Question

(26:46) - Russia Threat Timeline

(27:53) - Can Russia Fight NATO

(29:30) - Satellite Buildup Reality

(30:23) - Europe Rearms Narrative

(35:11) - Asymmetric Threat Debate

(37:06) - Drones Cyber Article Five

(41:11) - US Munitions Bottleneck

(47:39) - Iran Stalemate Logic

(50:27) - How Neutered Is Iran

(53:46) - Mali Jihadist Surge

(57:17) - Closing Thanks Outro

--

Sim's Work:

AllSource Analysis: https://allsourceanalysis.com/work/sim-tack/

Linkedin: https://be.linkedin.com/in/sim-tack-081b313b

--

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

--