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This 2nd Anniversary episode focuses on what the retrospective analysis from the NAIL-NIT consortium can achieve in terms of driving the shift beyond the biopsy in NASH diagnostics while simultaneously celebrating Stephen Harrison's contribution to the podcast while announcing that Jörn Schattenberg will become our weekly Key Opinion Leader (other commitments will force Stephen Harrison miss roughly half the episodes).
The first part of the discussion focuses on Stephen's role in the podcast, culminating in what SurfingNASH's audio engineer, MiC Wilson, has dubbed "The Stephen Harrison Drinking Game." (Listen to learn about it.)
Stephen begins discussion of NAIL-NIT by describing what triggered this effort - a chance to "break down stovepipes" (Harrisonism) to create a multi-study data set that can address some of the biggest issues we face today around NITs. "We want to find the right tests for the right situation at the right time to answer the right question" whether that's diagnosis, monitoring for therapeutic efficacy or prognosis."
Stephen then describes a two-step process: (i) Analysis of retrospective data from completed and existing clinical trials, which should provide guidance, followed by (ii) a prospective study that can "nail" the right NIT for each situation within the next 5-6 years.
Mazen discusses the patient perspective: what happens for the patient (and physician) who clearly has NASH (maybe even F3) but cannot get into a trial because the biopsy does not reveal presence of ballooning? Over time, casual discussions about this issue with Stephen led them to drive the NAIL-NIT initiative. Mazen goes on to note the valuable work that LITMUS, NIMBLE and the Goldmine project at UCSD have done, but feels that this is the time - and NAIL-NIT is the project - to pull all this together into a focused, eventually conclusive effort.
After Naim and Jörn discuss their motivation to participate, Mazen shifts the tone of the conversation by asking each of them to describe his "passionate first project." Naim's answer focuses on thresholds that correspond to histological responses for the different NITs. Jörn focuses on questions of effect size, particularly related to varying placebo responses across different trials.
Naim then goes on to quote Nassim Taleb, author of the recent book, "Skin in the Game," on a concept he describes as "IYI", "intellectual yet idiot". Naim provides two examples of IYI in NASH trials. Example 1: an F3 patient cannot be enrolled in a trial due to lack of balloon hepatocytes. As Naim notes, F3 is "aggressive disease," so, he asks, "what else do you need to know?" Example 2: a 0 score on ballooning is required to describe a patient's NASH as having reached resolution.
Mazen notes that in a future with 10-15 Phase 3 trials, we will never generate the requisite sample sizes if trials are tethered to biopsy and ballooning. Stephen cites the English author Rupert Sheldrake on the concept of "morphic resonance." Here, it means that you can know something is NASH even if specific metrics do not prove it.
After Jörn discusses the project's ability to shape the prospective trial, Louise asks whether the group plans to analyze presenting symptoms. She points out that a goal of research should be to develop a questionnaire a primary care physician can administer to the patient that will point those at higher risk toward additional evaluation.
From there, the discussion focuses on other implications of the trial on drug development and patient diagnosis and care. There is not enough room to describe all of it. Listen on to learn why a 5-year timeline to get the answer both makes sense and might be imperative.
Make sure to allow the energy and "get it done" (another Harrisonism) tone