The Bayesian Conspiracy

This is a trailer for a bonus Patrons-only episode. It’s 45 minutes chatting with Aella about various things that struck Eneasz’s interest. Aella’s twitter is Aella_Girl. Homepage at Knowingless, also has a substack.

The Conspiracy comes out strongly in favor of switching to Normal Predictions, which is safe and easy when you use the Jan Christian Refsgaard method! Also, we agree with Zvi that Change is Bad. (Though note that changing to Normal Predictions has so many positives that it outweighs the Bad of Change, so don’t let […]

A few days ago I asked Wes a couple follow-up questions on wireheading, and later chatted with Emilio from the Discord on-record. I thought it wouldn’t be too long, but it turned out to go about as long as a full episode. So now there’s a bonus episode available for Patrons (and Discord members) on […]

Jace and Steven cover this one since Eneasz is busy drinking cocktails out of a coconut in a beach in Hawaii. Robin Hanson (probably correctly) thinks the world is going to shit (paraphrasing). He thinks that a robust check on the escalating madness out there could be a community of intellectual generalists. Is he right? […]

We beef with Wes over how important values may or may not be, and why Wireheading is awesome and/or evil. Wes is the head of The Mind Killer podcast! 7:23  –  LW Posts discussion begins 53:39  –  Main Topic begins 2:01:40  –  Thank the Patron We also discuss Not Everthing Is a Clue and Aladdin […]

We speak to Aella about her post on Frame Control Aella’s Twitter & LSD post National Domestic Violence Hotline The Categories Were Made For Man not visa versa SSC post Jace’s XKCD reference Shut Down The Narcissist video Gray Rock video Not Everything Is A Clue Shaping Exercises 101 Hey look, we have a discord! What could […]

We discuss Sasha Chapin’s “Your Intelligent, Conscientious In-group Has Bad Social Norms Too” Main Topic begins at 45:46 Other items mentioned: The Simple Truth – Eliezer’s short story about The Sheep Counter Keep Your Identity Small – by Paul Graham, not Hanson! Otters vs Possums – by Aella Shit Rationalists Say Hey look, we have […]

We discuss the book The Procrastination Equation as summarized by Luke in How to Beat Procrastination The audio is rough at first, we fixed it after 8 minutes. Other items discussed include: Bezos in a Mecha The Goth Chicken Whether the King’s English was good enough for Jesus? Hugh Jackman for Men vs Hugh Jackman […]

We speak with Jason Crawford (twitter), from The Roots of Progress. Interview begins at 44:25. Posts discussed include: Iron: From mythical to mundane The various Why Did It Take So Long For (X), and specifically Cotton Gin, Bicycle, and Threshing Machine Does invention come from deprivation or plenty? Progress studies as a moral imperative and […]

Matt Freeman returns to talk about Decision Theory, and the discusion ranges far afield. Matt is from The Guild of the Rose, which we had a recent episode about. You can see his Decision Theory Course videos here. Scott Alexander on All Debates Are Bravery Debates Our previous Newcomb episode Our previous Torture vs Dust […]