As OpenAI's former Head of Research, Bob McGrew witnessed the company's evolution from GPT-3’s breakthrough to today's reasoning models. He argues that there are three legs of the stool for AGI—Transformers, scaled pre-training, and reasoning—and that the fundamentals that will shape the next decade-plus are already in place. He thinks 2025 will be defined by reasoning while pre-training hits diminishing returns. Bob discusses why the agent economy will price services at compute costs due to near-infinite supply, fundamentally disrupting industries like law and medicine, and how his children use ChatGPT to spark curiosity and agency. From robotics breakthroughs to managing brilliant researchers, Bob offers a unique perspective on AI’s trajectory and where startups can still find defensible opportunities.

Hosted by: Stephanie Zhan and Sonya Huang, Sequoia Capital

Mentioned in this episode: 

Solving Rubik’s Cube with a robot hand: OpenAI’s original robotics research

Computer Use and Operator: Anthropic and OpenAI reasoning breakthroughs that originated with OpenAi researchers

Skild and Physical Intelligence: Robotics-oriented companies Bob sees as well-positioned now

Distyl: AI company founded by ex-Palintir alums to create enterprise workflows driven by proprietary data

Member of the technical staff: Title at OpenAI designed to break down barriers between AI researchers and engineers

Howie.ai: Scheduling app that Bob uses