The Burn Bag – National Security and Foreign Policy Redefined

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This week, A'ndre welcomed back to The Burn Bag Brian Morra, a retired Air Force Intelligence Officer and the author of The Righteous Arrows, a fictionalized account of U.S. proxy efforts during the Soviet-Afghan War. A'ndre and Brian discuss heightened tensions between the United States and the Soviet Union during the mid-1980s, outlining the motivations behind why the U.S. Government decided to arm the mujahideen 'resistance' against the Soviet military. Brian outlines why the U.S. Government's failure to ponder the 'day after' a Soviet defeat is an example of the law of unintended consequences -- given the rise of extremist Islamic militant groups in Afghanistan such as Al Qaeda and the Taliban. The two also chat about the lessons that the Soviet-Afghan War provide for the current day, especially with the ongoing War in Ukraine and crises in the Middle East.

You can listen to our first interview with Brian, on the 1983 Nuclear War Scare here:  https://bit.ly/3JhunxK.

You can purchase Brian's new book The Righteous Arrows, which has already won several literature awards, here: https://www.amazon.com/Righteous-Arrows-Brian-J-Morra-ebook/dp/B0CW28XN1X 

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This week, A’ndre and Andrea speak with former SOF-CENTCOM commander LTG Michael Nagata and former senior State Department official Laurel Miller on a recent USIP report on counterterrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan.  LTG Nagata and Laurel discuss how the counterterrorism landscape has changed since 2021, outlining the different terror groups in the region, from al Qaeda and ISIS-K to anti-Pakistan and anti-India groups such as the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) group. The two guests share their thoughts on the Afghanistan withdrawal, and the faulty intertwining of counterterrorism and counter-insurgency, and also share thoughts on the growth of these terror groups amidst ongoing tensions in the broader Middle East and South Asia regions. LTG Nagata and Laurel also discuss U.S. cooperation with Pakistan and India on counterterrorism, and whether or not the U.S. should work with or pressure the Taliban in Afghanistan. A'ndre and Andrea close out the conversation with LTG Nagata and Laurel through a conversation on how counterterrorism can be tied to strategic competition priorities.

For more information, and to read the report, click on the link below:
https://www.usip.org/publications/2024/05/senior-study-group-counterterrorism-afghanistan-and-pakistan-final-report (https://www.usip.org/publications/2024/05/senior-study-group-counterterrorism-afghanistan-and-pakistan-final-report)

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This week, Andrew interviews Eric and Greg Levesque, co-founders of Strider Technologies. Strider is a tech company that utilizes open-source data and AI methodologies to provide strategic intelligence to governments, corporations, and research institutions around the world to proactively identify and mitigate nation-state-directed IP theft, talent recruitment, and supply chain threats. Eric and Greg walk us through how open-source information capabilities have expanded dramatically since the COVID-19 pandemic and the "industry battlespace" in the Great Power Competition landscape. The second half of the conversation is devoted to Strider's new report, Shifting Ice, which outlines how Russia has begun to utilize Chinese commercial capabilities in the Arctic. Andrew, Eric, and Greg, wrap up with an overview of what the Arctic security space may look like by 2030.

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Last week, co-hosts Andrea Ochoa and Christina Oh attended the 2024 NATO Youth Summit, which was a collaborative event hosted by NATO, The Aspen Institute, Aspen Institute Romania, the Swedish Defence University and the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency. The event focused on global security issues and enhancing youth understanding of the transatlantic alliance, including how the alliance can address current and future security challenges. 

As part of the event, Burn Bag sat down with some of the following panelists and speakers: 

• Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell, U.S. Department of State
• Vice Admiral Guy Robinson, Chief of Staff, NATO Allied Command  Transformation (ACT) 
• Colonel Florian Lemoine, Scientific Advisor, NATO Allied Command Transformation (ACT)
• Lauren Walsh, Professor and Director of the Gallatin Photojournalism Initiative, NYU

Topics included INDOPACOM U.S./NATO priorities, NATO multi-strategic operations, NATO emerging technologies and defense innovation, and more. 

The 2024 NATO Youth Summit also featured the work and idea exchange of some of the Summit’s Youth Challenge Winners, who proposed a variety of ideas to help shape a more secure tomorrow. These challenge winners will be featured in our next episode as part of our 2-part series covering this event.

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This week, A'ndre and Andrew interview Dr. Gregory Stanton, founder of Genocide Watch on the process of genocide, genocide in modern warfare, and efforts towards reconciliation. Dr. Stanton has been a key figure in the genocide prevention movement for several decades, and walks the audience through his '10 Stages of Genocide' framework. Dr. Stanton outlines why he believes total war / 'carpet bombing' is an act of genocide, citing the firebombing of Dresden and Tokyo, in addition to the atomic bombings, as examples of this. Dr. Stanton provides his thoughts on why he believes a 'double genocide' has been attempted by both the Israeli Government and Hamas, and also provides his thoughts on accusations of genocide during the Sri Lankan Civil War. The hosts and Dr. Stanton talk about the practicalities of transitional justice and reconciliation, discussing examples in Rwanda. Dr. Stanton also provides his perspectives on discussing genocide during the reconciliation process, since it is the 'ultimate accusation'.

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This week, A'ndre chatted with former Director of National Intelligence Jim Clapper on the recent strikes exchanged between Israel and Iran, Israel's conduct in Gaza, and the broader regional dynamics at play. Director Clapper, who served as DNI between 2010-2017, discusses his initial reactions to the October 7th Attacks, recalling his own visit to the Gaza border in 2014 and talking about why the Israeli Government may have viewed Hamas as a 'benign' threat. Director Clapper outlines his perceptions on Prime Minister Netanyahu's maneuvering, and his concerns on why Israel's conduct in the war will only breed more terrorists that will join Hamas, rather than eliminate the organization. Director Clapper provides his view on President Biden's handling of the war, and why he believes there should be conditions attached to U.S. weapon aid to Israel. A'ndre and Director Clapper then move into a broader conversation on the ongoing tensions and potential for conflict between Israel and Iran, with Director Clapper asserting that the two countries had crossed a 'Rubicon' with the exchange of direct strikes over the last several weeks. The two discuss whether the Israel-Iran conflict will intensify, Iran's hardline leadership, relations between Iran and proxy groups, and the Director's forecast on the regional crisis in general.

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In this episode, A'ndre and Andrea welcome Jonna Mendez, a distinguished former Chief of Disguise in the CIA's Office of Technical Service, for an intriguing discussion on espionage, disguise, and Jonna's groundbreaking career. Known for her role that is sometimes akin to "Q" from the James Bond series, Jonna sheds light on her 27-year tenure at the CIA, where she specialized in clandestine photography and innovative disguise tactics in some of the most hostile theaters of the Cold War.  The conversation explores the art of disguise, examining what makes a good disguise, the contingency plans for disguise failures, and how these tactics differed from those of adversaries. Jonna also shares her perspective on how technological advancements impact modern clandestine operations.  Jonna also discusses the challenges of proving herself in a male-dominated field and the significance of mentorship in her success.

You can check out Jonna's book, In True Face, here.

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This week, A'ndre is joined by Lindsay Gorman, the Managing Director & Senior Fellow at the German Marshall Fund’s GMF Tech, to delve into the controversies surrounding TikTok and its implications for national security. Lindsay sheds light on ByteDance, the company behind TikTok, and discusses the concerns surrounding its data storage practices. A'ndre and Lindsay explore the concept of data sovereignty and discuss whether China can access ByteDance's data at will, and why it's different from how the U.S. Government engages with U.S.-based social media companies. Lindsay outlines the types of user data TikTok gathers, and touches upon how China can exploit this collected data. The conversation extends to China's history of leveraging social media platforms for targeting dissenters and the workings of TikTok's algorithms in content recommendation -- particularly with regards to misinformation and polarization. Lindsay offers insights into the likelihood of a TikTok divestiture (and why it's not a ban), legal challenges it might face, and the possibility of a U.S.-based firm acquiring TikTok. The discussion concludes with an examination of China's reaction to the scrutiny, and what Lindsay sees as the biggest myths surrounding TikTok.

CORRECTION: A'ndre referenced a dispute between the FBI and Apple, incorrectly attributing it to the Boston Bombing investigation, when in actuality it was the 2015 San Bernardino Terror Attack

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This week, Christina interviews Sophie Rutenbar (she/her), a visiting fellow in the Brookings Strobe Talbott Center and a Visiting Scholar at New York University's Center on International Cooperation, on the current crisis in Haiti and the emergence of gangs as leading political voices. With experience as the Planning Officer for the United Nations Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH), based in Port-au-Prince, Sophie has extensive experience on the ground in the first African Republic. Acknowledging the renewed wave of gang violence and the recent resignation of its prime minister Ariel Henry, Christina and Sophie discuss the many factors that have lead to this flashpoint in Haiti, and the unique political landscape of the country.

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This week, A'ndre is joined by Javed Ali, a former counterterrorism official who served as Senior Director of Counterterrorism on the National Security Council, to discuss Friday's horrific ISIS terror attacks at the Crocus City Hall in Moscow, Russia. Javed and A'ndre discuss what ISIS-K is, and how the Afghan-based group is different from the 'core' ISIS that has operated in Iraq and Syria. Javed outlines how ISIS-K has grown in recent years and their abilities to plot attacks outside of their locality, citing the recent ISIS-K suicide bombings in Iran and foiled plots in Europe. A'ndre and Javed also chat about how U.S. Intelligence warned both Russia and Iran in the days preceding the respective ISIS-K attacks and how the Afghanistan withdrawal has affected intelligence gathering. Javed provides his take on the profiles of those who have conducted ISIS-K's attacks, and whether the tactics taken in Moscow bear parallels to the 2015 Paris Attacks or 2008's 26/11 attacks in Mumbai.