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In this episode of The Commstock Channel, hosts Eric Rewlph and Zach Hooker provide a comprehensive market analysis as they wrap up the trading week. They discuss the notable performance of March corn and soybeans, highlighting the positive momentum heading into a holiday weekend. The conversation shifts to the cattle market, where they analyze the recent sell-off and the impact of rumors surrounding the potential arrival of screwworm in the U.S. They emphasize the importance of risk management for producers in a volatile market, especially given the high stakes involved in cattle trading. The episode concludes with a brief overview of the hog market, which has shown remarkable strength despite challenges in the cattle sector.

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Summary

In this episode, analyst Brian Grete discusses the critical importance of USDA surveys for farmers and the agricultural market. He highlights the declining response rates from farmers, which have dropped from around 80-85% in the 90s to just 40% in recent years. Grete argues that accurate data collection through these surveys is essential for producing reliable estimates on crop production, acreage, and yields, which ultimately affect market prices. He emphasizes that farmers should participate in these surveys to ensure that the data reflects the true state of agriculture, thereby reducing market surprises and complaints about USDA reports.

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In this conversation, Joe Camp discusses the current state of the cattle market, reflecting on previous predictions and analyzing recent price trends. He explores the dynamics of the cattle market, including the impact of external factors such as tariffs and consumer behavior. Additionally, he delves into hedging strategies for producers, emphasizing the importance of adjusting positions based on market conditions and risks. The conversation concludes with a forward-looking perspective on the cattle market and the need for ongoing strategy adjustments. 

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 In this conversation, Matthew Kruse from Comstock Investments discusses the recent USDA January crop report and its significant impact on market trends, particularly for corn and soybeans. He highlights the unexpected increase in harvested acres and its implications for supply and prices, as well as concerns about overstated feed demand. The discussion also covers historical context regarding ending stocks and predictions for future market behavior, emphasizing the need for realistic assessments and strategies moving forward. 

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In this conversation, Brian Grete discusses the USDA's January 12th reports, highlighting a bearish outlook for U.S. corn, soybean, and wheat production. The reports revealed higher-than-expected crop production and grain stocks, leading to increased ending stocks for the 2025-26 marketing year. Grete provides detailed insights into corn and soybean yields, acreage, and the implications of global supply on market dynamics. Overall, the data suggests a challenging environment for U.S. agriculture as global supplies remain plentiful. 

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In this episode, Eric Relph from Comstock Investments provides a comprehensive overview of the current market landscape, focusing on key updates regarding the Supreme Court's decision on Trump tariffs, upcoming USDA reports, and the performance of various commodities. He discusses the grain market's expectations, particularly corn and soybean yields, and highlights significant movements in crude oil, gold, and cattle markets. The conversation emphasizes the importance of the upcoming WASDE report and its potential impact on trading strategies.

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Brian Grete discusses the upcoming USDA reports, focusing on the production estimates for corn and soybeans, the implications of grain stocks, and the overall market expectations. He highlights the importance of the January 12th report, the historical trends in yield estimates, and the potential market-moving impacts of the data released.

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In this conversation, Joe Camp discusses the current state of the cattle market, analyzing recent trends in cattle futures, the impact of seasonal influences, and the dynamics of the cash market post-holidays. He highlights the risks associated with speculative positioning and the potential effects of consumer behavior on beef prices. The conversation concludes with insights on future market outlooks and the importance of monitoring key reports.

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Matthew Kruse, President of Commstock Investments, recorded this update while touring fields in Brazil. He expresses skepticism about hitting record production numbers because it requires perfect weather across the entire country. While Brazil's weather is currently favorable, Argentina is facing a dry 4-to-6-week forecast that could impact their yields.

Despite a slow start to the rainy season in October, crops are currently looking very good. Brazil has increased soybean planting by approximately 4 million acres this year (reaching ~121 million total acres).

Harvest has already begun in isolated areas of Mato Grosso where short-season varieties were planted in September.

Kruse’s family arrived in this region in 1976. He reflects on the "remarkable" development from dirt roads and no electricity/running water to the high-production agricultural hub it is today.

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This conversation provides a detailed overview of the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program (FBA) initiated by the USDA, outlining the payment structure, eligibility criteria, and future funding possibilities. Brian Grete discusses the specifics of the program, including payment rates, application processes, and the expected timeline for payments, while also addressing the potential for additional funding from Congress.

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