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By Tom Bodrovics
4.6
1717 ratings
The podcast currently has 116 episodes available.
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Tom Bodrovics welcomes back former Wall Street analyst John Rubino for a discussion on the incoherence between Federal Reserve and Treasury policies, with the Fed signaling possible rate hikes while the Treasury intervenes to suppress long-term yields. Rubino argues this contradictory approach signals a loss of confidence in fiat currencies and points toward a global debt spiral, exacerbated by $10 trillion in U.S. debt refinancing this year and reduced foreign demand, particularly from Japan. He sees precious metals as ultimate beneficiaries once governments resort to aggressive yield curve control, leading to a monetary reset likely backed by gold. Silver benefits from both monetary and industrial demand, especially in solar and batteries. Copper also stands to gain from electrification and AI-driven power needs. Rubino highlights diesel prices and the Iran conflict as underappreciated inflation drivers, and warns of a frozen housing market with three groups of potential forced sellers: baby boomers, Airbnb owners, and Wall Street landlords, which could trigger a 30-40% price decline. He also flags private equity risks in commercial real estate and insurance. For investors, he recommends starting with large-cap miners and gradually moving down the market cap ladder, using dollar cost averaging and put options for protection. Despite near-term recession risks, Rubino points to optimistic developments in longevity research, next-generation batteries, and cheap solar energy as potential long-term positives. Overall, the discussion emphasizes an accelerating global debt crisis, incoherent policy responses, and the need for defensive positioning in hard assets. Timestamps: 00:00:00 - Introduction 00:00:13 - Fed and Treasury Incoherence 00:06:40 - Higher Rates Impact on Gold 00:09:50 - Silver's Dual Industrial Role 00:12:38 - Diesel Prices and Recession Risk 00:15:07 - Geopolitical Energy Disruptions 00:18:05 - Agriculture Drought and El Nino 00:23:50 - Monetary Reset Discussion 00:27:14 - AI Catalyst and Concerns 00:30:38 - US Debt Spiral Bailout 00:32:29 - Housing Market Freeze 00:38:18 - Private Equity Risks 00:41:23 - Copper Miners Investment Strategies 00:45:34 - Picking a Portfolio of Miners 00:54:22 - Recession & Future Risks Guest: John Rubino — Former Wall Street Analyst, & Publisher John Rubino Substack John Rubino is a former Wall Street financial analyst and author or co-author of five books, including The Money Bubble: What To Do Before It Pops. He founded the popular financial website DollarCollapse.com in 2004 and sold it in 2022, and now publishes on Substack. Substack Books 📈 The Competent Investor Markets, macro, and the minds that move money. Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles. RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app. Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter. X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary. YouTube — Full video episodes.

Chase Taylor, global macro strategist at Pinecone Macro, analyzed the recent Treasury bond market intervention, characterizing it as an unforced error that inadvertently signaled a shift toward yield curve control. The initial modest buyback program quickly escalated into a commitment to use the Treasury General Account to cap long-term yields, undermining the Federal Reserve’s earlier stance and damaging joint credibility. This intervention, combined with ongoing geopolitical tensions, has intensified inflationary pressures. Taylor highlighted diesel prices as a critical driver, with inventories at 1996 lows and high crack spreads feeding into core inflation through transportation costs. He also warned of El Niño’s potential to disrupt global agriculture, particularly sugar, coffee, and cocoa, adding another layer of price pressure. On geopolitics, Taylor argued that economic sanctions against Iran are unlikely to force surrender, as the country has long adapted to such measures through smuggling and alternative trade networks. He noted Iran’s escalation dominance, meaning it can retaliate in ways that inflict greater economic pain on the US, such as disrupting energy infrastructure. This dynamic could accelerate capital outflows and eventually lead to capital controls, especially if inflation remains sticky. In this environment, gold emerges as a clear beneficiary, repricing higher as the Treasury’s actions signal a willingness to inflate away debt. Despite Western investor apathy, gold’s monetary properties make it a compelling hedge. Taylor also discussed structural weaknesses in US manufacturing and defense, emphasizing the loss of industrial capacity and the politicization of technology, which hampers innovation. He advocated for a disciplined, probabilistic approach to investing, stressing risk management, self-awareness, and the importance of studying cognitive biases. He recommended diversifying internationally and maintaining a rational, non-tribal mindset to navigate the complex macro landscape. Timestamps: 00:00:00 - Introduction 00:00:54 - Bond Market Intervention 00:04:27 - Escalation Traps in Markets 00:10:50 - Inflation Channels and El Nino 00:20:35 - Diesel and Energy Inflation 00:30:20 - SPR and Jet Fuel Issues 00:36:32 - Gold and Precious Metals 00:47:13 - Iran Sanctions Path Forward 01:00:20 - Missile Limitations and Ukraine 01:11:27 - Technology and AI Future 01:17:39 - Thinking and Biases 01:26:03 - Trading Discipline and Risk 01:35:30 - Concluding Thoughts Guest: Chase Taylor — Global Macro Strategist and Editor at Pinecone Macro Chase Taylor is a macro trader and the global macro strategist and editor at Pinecone Macro Research. He recently became Head of Research at Bullwark Capital Management. Chase launched PMR in 2018, where he provides unique macro insights and analysis in a weekly and monthly research product. Chase does not come from Wall Street or business school, but the military. He prides himself on being a self-taught macro thinker and practitioner. Chase started in the Air Force working on B-1 Bombers, but spent most of his career as a geospatial intelligence analyst, working on strategic and tactical intelligence problem sets. He has also worked in acquisitions at a research laboratory focused on rocket propulsion. Chase combines the analytical techniques he learned in the intelligence community with a unique focus on history and nature to create a distinctive macro framework. He combines technical analysis, fundamental changes, and the power of narratives and reflexivity to uncover asymmetric investments. Substack X Website Website iPencil 📈 The Competent Investor Markets, macro, and the minds that move money. Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles. RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app. Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter. X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary. YouTube — Full video episodes.

Graham Summers, President and Chief Market Strategist for Phoenix Capital Research, discussed the complex state of the bond market, noting the historic shift as the 40-year bull market in bonds ended in 2022. He analyzed Treasury Secretary Bessent’s recent increase in bond buybacks to $6 billion per auction, interpreting it primarily as a verbal intervention to maintain stability and signal support rather than a massive quantitative easing program. Summers stressed that while rising yields and national debt exceeding 100% of GDP are noteworthy, the situation remains orderly and not yet resembling a debt crisis. The conversation explored the application of a "wartime economy" framework to understand current fiscal and monetary policy. The intense U.S.-China AI arms race is driving massive deficits and direct government investment in sectors like critical minerals and domestic production, including gold and uranium. Summers highlighted the administration’s unprecedented moves, such as designating gold as a critical mineral and the Treasury Secretary explicitly discussing gold’s role in sanctions and as a strategic monetary asset. He argued this signals a fundamental shift where hard assets are regaining strategic and economic relevance after decades of being sidelined. On inflation, Summers pointed to volatile oil prices, which the administration has proven capable of influencing through strategic statements. He cautioned that sustained high energy costs could eventually feed through to data, but the current inflationary picture is not as acute as the 2021-2022 period. When assessing market risks, he advised focusing on leading indicators like high-yield credit, market breadth, and the price action of the most heavily weighted stocks, noting none currently point to an imminent disorderly crash. Timestamps: 00:00:00 - Introduction 00:00:33 - Bond Market and Treasury Buybacks 00:02:20 - End of Bond Bull Market 00:05:46 - Treasury Interventions and Signals 00:09:35 - Debt Structure and Fed Changes 00:15:05 - Global Yields and US Dominance 00:17:18 - Wartime Economy and AI Race 00:22:06 - Debt to GDP Analysis 00:27:30 - COVID Liquidity and Announcements 00:29:38 - Oil Prices and Inflation 00:35:30 - Gold as Critical Mineral 00:41:16 - Uranium and Critical Minerals Guest: Graham Summers — President and Chief Market Strategist for Phoenix Capital Research Graham Summers, MBA is a world-renowned expert in central bank policy and its impact on the financial markets. With over 20 years of experience in market analysis and investment strategy, Graham has personally analyzed over 1,000 businesses and countless investment opportunities. His investment strategies encompass six different asset classes ranging from emerging markets to currencies to real estate . Together, his work has translated to unparalleled capital gains, with his clients outperforming the markets during some of the most volatile periods in capitalism. A best-selling author and acclaimed communicator, Graham’s cutting-edge investment and economic insights have been featured in dozens of media outlets around the world including CNN Money, Fox Business, Rolling Stone Magazine, Crain’s New York Business, MoneyTalk Radio, and The Huffington Post among many others. Graham earned his MBA from the prestigious Fuqua School of Business at Duke University. X Website Book 📈 The Competent Investor Markets, macro, and the minds that move money. Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles. RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app. Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter. X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary. YouTube — Full video episodes.

Tom welcomes back Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, Mike McGlone for a discussion on the outlook for energy, metals, and the broader macro markets. Diesel prices at all-time highs, driven by geopolitical disruptions and refining bottlenecks, are likely unsustainable. McGlone pointed to natural gas as a leading indicator: the January futures contract, the apex of the curve, has declined this year despite a supply glut, signaling downward pressure ahead for diesel, gasoline, and crude oil. The U.S. has become a massive net energy exporter, with record production and growing surpluses from Canada, Brazil, and Guyana, which will eventually overwhelm temporary supply constraints. Mike expects energy prices to fall, potentially accelerated by political pressure ahead of midterm elections. Copper, trading near all-time highs, is a “sock puppet” to the stock market, highly correlated and overextended. Managed money positions are extremely long, and CME inventories are at record levels relative to global exchanges, suggesting a liquidation risk if equities correct. Gold, while at elevated levels, is flashing warning signals: its volatility and correlation with the S&P 500 are at extremes, and historically, when gold gets exciting, investors should be cautious. The metal’s outperformance versus the long bond and equities may indicate a peak, with a potential enduring top similar to 2007. The U.S. stock market is historically expensive relative to GDP and debt, and McGlone sees a normal post-inflation deflationary reversion as likely. The next big trade may be long Treasury bonds, with the 30-year yielding over 5%, offering attractive risk-off value. Political cycles, tariffs, and the administration’s aggressive stance could accelerate a correction, and McGlone expects a significant shift in the midterms. Overall, he advises caution across risk assets, favoring bonds and anticipating a period of mean reversion that could define trading opportunities in the coming months. Timestamps: 00:00:00 - Introduction 00:00:40 - Diesel Prices at All-Time Highs 00:03:03 - Natural Gas as Leading Indicator 00:04:21 - Geopolitical Issues Impacting Energy 00:05:45 - US Energy Surplus and Reversion 00:07:30 - Crack Spreads and Production 00:13:44 - Treasury Bonds and Yields 00:17:20 - Copper Stock Market Correlation 00:23:44 - Equity Market Triggers 00:29:52 - Mid-Terms and Inflation 00:33:48 - Gold Signals and Concerns 00:37:22 - Silver and Metals Peaks Guest: Mike McGlone — Senior Commodity Strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence Mike McGlone is a senior commodity strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, a unique research platform that provides context on industries, companies, and government policy, available on the Bloomberg Professional service at BI(GO). Mr. McGlone specializes in the broad investible commodity markets. Mr. McGlone joined Bloomberg in 2016 with over 25 years of futures and commodity trading and investing experience, beginning at the Chicago Board of Trade. Prior to joining Bloomberg, he was a head of US research at ETF Securities. Prior to ETF Securities, Mr. McGlone headed the commodity business at S&P Indices. His previous roles included head of futures research at ABN Amro and VP research, analyst, trader, sales at Aubrey G. Lanston / IBJ Futures. Mr. McGlone has an MBA from DePaul University in Chicago and bachelor's of science and arts degrees from Illinois State University. He is a CFA Charter holder and has earned a Financial Risk Manager designation. X LinkedIn 📈 The Competent Investor Markets, macro, and the minds that move money. Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles. RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app. Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter. X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary. YouTube — Full video episodes.

Rick Rule, president and CEO of Rule Investment Media, argues that a sustained decline in the purchasing power of the US dollar is inevitable due to the staggering $40 trillion in on-balance-sheet and $120 trillion in off-balance-sheet liabilities. He explains that while short-term interest rate hikes may temporarily strengthen the dollar, the political class will ultimately choose to inflate away these obligations rather than default, setting the stage for a replay of the 1970s inflationary era. In this environment, he positions physical gold as the primary savings defense, with high-quality gold stocks like Franco-Nevada and Agnico Eagle serving as a leveraged investment layer that historically outperforms bullion. He warns that speculative junior mining stocks require significant work, expertise, and psychological tolerance for volatility. The discussion extends to the broader resource sector, where decades of underinvestment have created structural supply deficits in commodities like copper and uranium. Rule notes that these deficits cannot be quickly resolved, making price rationing inevitable. For uranium specifically, he highlights strong fundamentals driven by Japanese reactor restarts and long-term contracting, though he cautions that the market’s progress is often misaligned with speculators’ short-term expectations. Regarding silver, he emphasizes that its major price moves are historically led by generalist investor inflows following gold’s momentum, rather than industrial demand alone. He also sees contrarian value in Canadian oil and gas, citing geopolitical tensions and fiscal necessity. Rule concludes by advising investors to distinguish between savings, investment, and speculation, urging them to limit speculative holdings to the number of hours they can dedicate to diligent research. Timestamps: 00:00:00 - Introduction 00:00:15 - Dollar Value and Washington 00:05:23 - Deflation Versus Inflation Forces 00:08:13 - Gold Commodities and Resources 00:10:50 - Gold Stocks in 1970s 00:13:20 - Interest Rates Impact on Gold 00:16:48 - Geopolitics and Energy Security 00:21:47 - Uranium Market Dynamics 00:27:06 - Uranium Production Deficit 00:34:08 - Silver Supply Realities 00:39:51 - Canadian Oil and Gas 00:42:40 - Investing in Resource Companies 00:52:36 - Resource Bull Market Outlook 00:55:05 - Wrap Up Guest: Rick Rule — Investor, Speculator, Founder & CEO of Rule Investment Media Rick Rule has dedicated his entire adult life to many aspects of natural resources securities investing. Besides the knowledge and experience gained in a long and focused career, he has a global network of contacts in the natural resources and finance sectors. Mr. Rule is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and is regularly interviewed for radio, television, print, and online media outlets concerning natural resources investment and industry topics. Prominent natural resources-oriented newsletters and advisories frequently quote him. Mr. Rule and his team have expertise in many resource sectors, including agriculture, alternative energy, forestry, oil and gas, mining, and water. X Website YouTube Classroom Battle Bank 📈 The Competent Investor Markets, macro, and the minds that move money. Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles. RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app. Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter. X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary. YouTube — Full video episodes.
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