Tom welcomes back Jaime Carrasco, senior portfolio manager and senior investment advisor at Harbourfront Wealth Management, to discuss the significant themes and market dynamics of 2025. Carrasco highlights the remarkable performance of gold and silver, which is currently hitting all-time highs. He attributes this to the end of the petrodollar system and a massive power shift from credit to hard assets, with gold leading this transition. Carrasco emphasizes that the easy money made in the past three years of building positions is over, and the focus should now be on the next leg up for precious metals. Carrasco identifies several key indicators supporting this shift, including the unwinding of the Japanese carry trade, rising long-term interest rates, and geopolitical tensions. He argues that central banks are losing control and will resort to printing money, which will drive up the price of gold.

Carrasco also notes that the value of fiat currencies is declining, making gold and silver more attractive as hedges against government policies and currency devaluation. The discussion touches on the importance of understanding the credit cycle and the role of gold as a hedge against bad government policies. Carrasco mentions that central banks are increasingly positioning themselves in gold, surpassing US treasuries in gold reserves. He predicts that the transition from credit to hard assets will continue, with gold and silver acting as lifeboats in a drowning monetary system.

Carrasco also discusses the performance of his conservative portfolio, which beat the benchmark by over 40% in 2025. He attributes this to the strengthening of positions in precious metals and the revaluation of fiat currencies against gold. He advises investors to focus on allocation rather than price, suggesting that a 30% allocation to precious metals is a good starting point. The conversation also covers the role of silver, which Carrasco sees as having more room to grow due to a structural deficit in production. He highlights the importance of stock selection and the potential for significant gains in silver producers. Carrasco also touches on the energy sector, noting that while oil is necessary, the energy complex is changing, and nuclear power may play a bigger role in the future. In conclusion, Carrasco advises investors to position themselves for the coming chaos by focusing on gold and silver as monetary insurance. He believes that the current environment presents an opportunity for significant gains in precious metals and that investors should start building their allocations now.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:47 – 2025 Year Review
00:03:00 – Fiat to Hard Assets Shift
00:08:50 – Borrowing Fiat Strategies
00:12:40 – C.B. Positioning Chart
00:16:26 – 2026 Outlook Themes
00:19:10 – Silver Fundamentals Discussion
00:21:00 – New Tech & Silver Battery?
00:26:20 – Critical Metal Supplies
00:34:50 – Positioning & Emotions
00:38:23 – Mining Company Selection
00:47:38 – Silver Price Vs. Oil
00:51:57 – Carry Trade Risks
00:56:53 – Portfolio Allocation
01:01:08 – Wrap Up

Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Lobo Tiggre, author and founder of the Independent Speculator, to reflect on the year’s investment landscape and a look ahead to 2026. Tiggre, known for his cautious approach, highlights that he avoids the “prediction racket” and instead focuses on strategic speculation. He notes that while he didn’t make money on certain metals like rare earths, antimony, or gallium, he successfully capitalized on copper, gold, silver, and uranium.

Tiggre emphasizes that his approach is about “hits and misses” rather than precise predictions, and he remains bullish on copper for 2026 due to structural imbalances and strong demand drivers, particularly from electric vehicles and AI infrastructure. Tiggre also discusses the risks associated with gold and silver, suggesting that while these metals have potential for significant gains, they also carry higher risk, especially if the market enters a consolidation phase. He cautioned against chasing all-time highs and advises taking profits to secure gains.

Reflecting on the 2011 peak in gold and silver, Tiggre underscores the importance of learning from past market cycles and maintaining a disciplined approach to investing. He also touches on the potential impact of a dramatic fall in the gold-to-silver ratio, suggesting it could signal the end of the bull market, but he believes current supply constraints in silver are temporary.

The conversation also delves into the broader economic context, with Tiggre discussing the influence of fiscal dominance and the Fed’s policies on commodity markets. He expresses optimism about the long-term prospects for metals like gold and silver, citing the ongoing debasement of fiat currencies. Tiggre also shares his thoughts on the AI bubble, acknowledging the potential for a short-term market correction but viewing it as a buying opportunity for real assets like metals.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:33 – 2025 Hits and Misses
00:03:24 – Avoiding Prediction Racket
00:06:46 – Copper Top Pick 2026
00:11:42 – Copper Supply Constraints
00:20:03 – Gold Silver Risks
00:26:51 – Lessons from 2011 Peak
00:37:55 – Taking Profits Discipline
00:45:00 – Gold Silver Ratio Concerns
00:50:07 – Fed Policy Fiscal Dominance
00:55:16 – Reshoring Job Creation
00:58:44 – AI Bubble Risks
01:01:04 – Wrap Up

Jim Rogers, a renowned investor, author, and world traveler, shares his insights and experiences during a podcast interview. Rogers, known for his adventurous spirit, discussed his record-breaking journeys across the globe by motorcycle and car, highlighting the unique perspectives and economic lessons he gained from these experiences. He emphasized that traveling by motorcycle offers a more immersive and meditative experience, allowing him to be fully present in the environment, while traveling by car provides practical advantages such as the ability to rest and plan.

Rogers’ travels, which began after his early retirement at 37, provided him with valuable insights into global economics and cultures. He noted that governments often make mistakes in controlling supply and price of commodities and that personal responsibility and market feedback are crucial for investors. Rogers’ observations in countries like China and Russia underscored the differences between capitalism and oppressive systems, with capitalism generally leading to greater success and opportunities.

Throughout his journeys, Rogers learned that change and adaptability are key to successful investing. He advised investors to look for countries that are cheap and changing for the better, as these often present the best opportunities. Rogers also stressed the importance of infrastructure in driving economic growth and opportunities. He recounted his experiences in Japan during the stock market bubble, noting that people’s attitudes and beliefs about prosperity can significantly impact their perception of risk and opportunity.

Rogers emphasized the value of discipline, hard work, and preparation in achieving success. He shared that his upbringing in a poor environment taught him the importance of diligence and focus. Reflecting on his life, Rogers advised listeners to chase their dreams and not be afraid of failure, as the regret of not trying can be more profound than the failure itself. He closed the conversation by encouraging everyone to pursue their dreams, as it is the only way to truly know if they can be achieved.

This episode, hosted by Tom Bodrovics, (Recorded morning of Dec 16) features a panel discussion with Eric Yeung, Just Dario, and London Paul to delve into the current dynamics of the silver market. The conversation highlights several key developments, including significant contracts on exchanges, particularly the COMEX, where a large number of contracts are standing for physical delivery. This trend is attributed to projections of increased industrial demand, particularly from Asia, driven by the growing need for silver in electric vehicles (EVs) and semiconductors. The panel discusses the unusual timing of these contracts, typically seen in December, and the potential implications for the market.

The discussion also touches on the recent outage experienced by the CME, which some panelists suggest was orchestrated to manage a large request for physical settlement. This incident is seen as a maneuver to control the price of silver, which has been rising despite attempts to suppress it. The panel notes that the physical demand for silver is outpacing supply, leading to a tight market and increased lease rates at the LBMA.

London Paul emphasizes the global strain on physical silver, citing increased demand from China, Russia, and India. He notes that China’s recent margin hikes on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are aimed at flushing out speculative paper positions, rather than addressing the underlying physical demand. The panel agrees that the market is increasingly driven by physical demand, with open interest in paper contracts remaining low despite rising silver prices.

Eric Yeung highlights the potential for significant volatility in the silver market, particularly as the COMEX approaches its delivery month in March. He suggests that the market could see extreme price movements, including limit up and limit down days, as physical demand continues to outstrip supply. The panel also discusses the potential for more outages at exchanges and the importance of monitoring lease rates and backwardation in China as indicators of market stress. Overall, the discussion underscores the growing industrial demand for silver, the tightening of the physical market, and the potential for significant price movements as the market continues to navigate these challenges.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:01:24 – Contracts Standing for Delivery
00:06:01 – Open Interest and LBMA Tightness
00:10:25 – Chinese Industrial Demand Surge
00:12:38 – CME Cooling Outage Analysis
00:20:13 – Shanghai Margin Raises Impact
00:30:42 – Backwardation Driving Demand
00:34:12 – Shanghai Silver Prices Parity
00:37:38 – Future Price and Retail Shift
00:43:45 – Samsung Battery Silver Needs
00:51:10 – Market Stress Indicators Ahead
01:09:11 – Concluding Thoughts

Eric Yeung

During the podcast, trader and editor of ‘The Morning Navigator,’ Tony Greer, shares his insights on the increasingly attractive commodities trade. Greer attributes this attractiveness to a combination of under-investment, regulatory changes, and a focus on rebuilding manufacturing and energy production. He highlights the significant performance of gold miners, up 141% year-to-date, and the broader commodities sector, which has seen a flywheel effect with various commodities taking off in sequence.

Greer discusses the potential for commodities to rally for three to four years, driven by the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet expansion and the resulting inflation. He also touches on the potential rebalancing of passive funds into outperforming sectors like commodities and energy. Greer’s current positions include gold, gold miners, industrial miners, airlines, and Bitcoin, which he bought at $82K after a pullback.

The conversation also covers the potential for a bubble in AI and the shift in Bitcoin sentiment following a large sell-off by a whale. Greer shares his approach to risk management, using trailing stop losses to avoid holding losing positions. He also discusses his preference for focusing on a few trusted sources of information and his upcoming conference in Nashville.

Greer’s outlook for the next year includes higher commodity prices, potential volatility in Bitcoin, and a significant move in gold miners. He also touches on the potential for stablecoins to help maintain the dollar’s reserve currency status. The podcast concludes with Greer expressing his excitement for his upcoming conference and his appreciation for the host’s new role.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:01:00 – Commodities Breaking Out
00:11:15 – Passive Funds & Rebalancing
00:13:05 – Bitcoin Perspectives
00:18:13 – Determining Crowded Trades
00:20:40 – US Bond Markets
00:25:10 – Consolidation & Sentiment
00:26:24 – Risk Management & Stop Loss
00:30:09 – Wall Street Narratives Critique
00:35:00 – Best Information Sources
00:37:15 – 1-Year Market Outlook
00:41:00 – Conference Conclusion

Tom welcomes Michael Pento to the show, following the FOMC meeting on November 10th. Michael shares his views on the Federal Reserve’s decisions and the broader economic landscape. Pento criticizes the Fed’s move to cut rates by 25 basis points and initiate $40 billion in U.S. Treasury purchases, arguing that these actions are unjustified given the current economic conditions, which include record-high asset bubbles and a prolonged miss of the inflation target. He characterizes the Fed’s actions as “monetary malfeasance” and expresses concern about the long-term impacts on the middle class, who have been struggling with affordability issues for years.

Pento highlights the dangers of the Fed’s interventions, which he believes have exacerbated wealth disparities and created an unsustainable economic environment. He warned that the current economic setup, characterized by excessive debt and asset bubbles, could lead to a catastrophic event rather than a minor economic tremor. Pento also discusses the potential for a liquidity crunch, which could cause a significant market correction, and the possibility of a deflationary event or a credit crisis.

Regarding Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, Pento expresses skepticism about their long-term value, viewing them as speculative assets with limited utility. However, he acknowledges that liquidity from the Fed’s actions could support short-term price increases in cryptocurrencies.

Pento also touches on the global trend of central banks accumulating gold reserves, viewing it as a sign of diminishing confidence in the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency. Pento’s inflation-deflation economic cycle model indicates stress in liquidity markets, leading him to reduce his equity exposure. He emphasizes the importance of being cautious and prepared for potential market disruptions, suggesting that investors should consider holding a core position in physical gold and be ready to adjust their portfolios based on economic conditions. He also warns about the risks of a chaotic bond market and the potential for a significant economic event in the near future.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:15 – FOMC Rate Cut Reactions
00:03:36 – Bonds & Mainstreet Markets
00:07:25 – Stagflation Deflation Dangers
00:09:71 – Global Gold Reserves
00:10:15 – Bond Yields Outlook
00:11:45 – Recession Inevitability
00:13:30 – Liquidity Model Insights
00:16:10 – Eastern Gold Reserves
00:17:17 – Treasury Gold Valuation?
00:18:31 – Miners & Institutional Money
00:20:00 – Pressure & Can-Kicking
00:22:50 – Liquidity Crunch Ramifications
00:24:55 – Silver Price Action & Physical
00:30:50 – Concluding Market Risks

Tom Bodrovics welcomes Jesse Felder, the founder, editor, and publisher of The Felder Report, to The Competent Investor. Felder highlights the unusual correlation between stocks and gold, noting that while they typically move inversely, they have been moving together recently. This is attributed to a transitional period where the market is shifting from favoring financial assets to favoring real assets like gold and commodities. Felder suggests that gold’s performance indicates a potential struggle for financial assets in the future.

The discussion also covers the potential impact of a market correction, comparing it to the dot-com crash. Felder argues that a significant correction could have a more profound negative wealth effect due to the larger size of the equity market relative to the economy. He also warns about the risks of a corporate earnings bubble, driven by massive deficit spending, which could lead to a prolonged period of stagnant earnings growth.

Felder expresses concerns about the AI bubble, noting that the massive investment in AI technologies and data centers could lead to oversupply and underperformance.

He believes that the energy sector, particularly oil and gas exploration and production, could be a good counterbalance to the tech-heavy market, as it is relatively uncorrelated with the broader market and has been starved of capital for years.

The conversation also touches on the challenges faced by the Federal Reserve in managing inflation and supporting the economy. Felder argues that the Fed’s focus on wealth effects and low-interest rates has created risks, and that a future recession could lead to a fiscal debt crisis. He also discusses the implications of a Trump-led Fed, suggesting that it could lead to a replay of the 1970s stagflation.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:18 – Gold Stocks Correlation
00:02:22 – Market Correction Wealth
00:06:09 – Negative Wealth Effect
00:11:03 – AI Bubble Concerns
00:15:23 – AI Business Model Shifts
00:17:54 – Data Center Overspending
00:22:16 – AI Funding Constraints
00:24:33 – Energy Sector Opportunities
00:29:25 – Capital Cycle Commodities
00:31:34 – Stagflation Treasury Yields
00:34:57 – Fed Policy Challenges
00:42:48 – Investment Strategies Insights
00:50:23 – Concluding Thoughts

Your host Tom Bodrovics welcomes Martin Armstrong, CEO and Chairman of Armstrong Economics Ltd., to discuss the geopolitical and economic landscape, with a focus on the Ukraine conflict and broader global dynamics. Armstrong argues that the mainstream narrative around Ukraine is misleading, driven by propaganda rather than facts. He suggests that the West, particularly NATO, has been using Ukraine as a pawn to weaken Russia, a strategy reminiscent of Cold War tactics. Armstrong criticizes the portrayal of Russia as an aggressor, asserting that Russia has no interest in invading Europe and that the current conflict is more about weakening Russia than about Ukraine itself. He also highlights the internal political struggles within Russia, including the attempted coup against Yeltsin and the rise of Putin, who has been a target of Western neoconservative elements.

Armstrong discusses the potential for a peace deal, emphasizing that the real enemy is the EU, not Russia, and that the EU’s economic instability is a significant factor in the ongoing conflict. He also touches on the broader geopolitical implications, including the potential for increased civil unrest and international war, which he correlates with economic decline.

Armstrong also addresses the role of the Federal Reserve, arguing that its original design was brilliant but has been corrupted over time, leading to policies that stimulate government spending rather than the domestic economy. He predicts more volatility, rising civil unrest, and increasing authoritarianism in the near future. Armstrong also discusses the implications of the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, suggesting that they may be unconstitutional and could damage Trump’s credibility if found so by the Supreme Court. The conversation also touches on the potential for conflict in Venezuela, which Armstrong sees as more about energy reserves than drugs, and the broader geopolitical tactics at play.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:16 – Ukraine Aggregate Demand Flatline
00:17:10 – Peace Deal Negotiations
00:36:45 – Venezuela Conflict Risks
00:44:26 – Trump Tariffs Constitutionality
00:45:47 – Global Conflicts and Trump
00:50:47 – Japanese Yields and Markets
00:55:42 – Silver Market Demand Surge
00:58:54 – Federal Reserve History
01:09:31 – Concluding Thoughts

Tom Bodrovics welcomes Aaron Day, a prominent entrepreneur and advocate for financial freedom, to discuss the implications of stablecoins and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) on the U.S. financial system. Day argues that the recent legislative actions, such as the Stablecoin Transparency Act, are paving the way for increased financial surveillance and control, effectively creating a “backdoor CBDC.” He explains that while stablecoins like Tether and USDC were initially popular for their efficiency in cross-border transactions, the new regulations force these stablecoins to be backed by U.S. treasuries, thereby increasing the government’s control over digital transactions.

Day also highlights the broader implications of technocracy, a movement that aims to replace democratic decision-making with technocratic control. He cites examples of influential figures like Elon Musk and Peter Thiel, who are pushing for a system where scientists and engineers make decisions for the public. This technocratic agenda includes the use of energy credits as a form of currency and the implementation of AI-driven systems to manage resources and control behavior. Day warns that this shift towards technocracy is happening rapidly and with little resistance, leading to a potential loss of individual freedoms.

The conversation also touches on the evolution of Bitcoin, which Day argues has been hijacked by nefarious actors to serve as a tool for central control rather than a decentralized currency. He discusses the role of figures like Jeffrey Epstein in funding Bitcoin developers and the subsequent manipulation of the currency’s development to serve centralized interests. Day emphasizes the importance of understanding the true history of Bitcoin and the ongoing efforts to control and surveil digital transactions.

Day concludes by advocating for individual empowerment and the creation of parallel systems that operate outside of the current technocratic framework. He encourages listeners to opt out of centralized systems, invest in their own education and skills, and build alternative healthcare and financial marketplaces. Ultimately, Day’s message is one of hope and agency, urging individuals to take control of their lives and resist the encroachment of technocratic control.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:50 – Stablecoin Framework Risks
00:02:40 – Existing Financial Surveillance
00:06:43 – Stablecoins Funding Debt
00:09:41 – Asset Tokenization Dangers
00:17:00 – Insider Dealings Revealed
00:19:20 – Technocracy Ideology Overview
00:24:30 – Key Technocracy Players
00:31:36 – UBI Pilots & AI Social Risks
00:33:53 – 50-Year Mortgages
00:35:06 – Information Warfare & Epstein
00:45:20 – Bitcoiner Behavior
00:57:37 – AI Technocracy Risks
01:05:05 – Freedom Solutions Strategies
01:14:50 – Concluding Thoughts

Kevin Wadsworth and Patrick Karim from NorthStarBadCharts.com discussed the concept of a capital rotation event, a significant shift in capital movement between stock markets and precious metals, particularly gold. This event is characterized by a cyclical pattern where capital moves from risk-on assets like stocks to risk-off assets like precious metals during economic downturns. They emphasized the importance of using a “weight of evidence” approach, considering multiple charts and indicators rather than relying on a single piece of data. They highlighted that gold’s recent outperformance against various metrics, including the US dollar and money supply, suggests a significant capital rotation event may be underway.

The discussion delved into historical examples, such as the 1970s and early 2000s, where stock markets experienced major downturns while precious metals surged. They compared current market conditions to these historical periods, noting similarities in the behavior of gold and silver versus the stock market. Patrick Karim presented a detailed chart analysis, showing how the Dow Jones Industrial Average has historically underperformed silver, indicating potential future movements. The hosts also addressed the role of Bitcoin in this context, noting that it has not correlated with gold and silver as expected.

They advised listeners to be cautious about holding Bitcoin during a capital rotation event, as it may not provide the same safe-haven benefits as precious metals. Instead, they suggested focusing on precious metals and associated miners, which are currently outperforming. Kevin Wadsworth and Patrick Karim provided practical advice for investors, emphasizing the importance of identifying downside support levels and understanding one’s investment strategy—whether as a trader, investor, or stacker. They also discussed the potential for corrections in gold and silver, suggesting that these corrections could present new entry points for investors. The conversation concluded with a reminder that opportunities in the market are cyclical, and patience is key to successful investing.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:19 – Capital Rotation Overview
00:01:11 – Gold Outperforming Stocks
00:03:03 – Weight of Evidence Approach
00:05:23 – Historical Rotation Events
00:06:11 – S&P Versus Silver Analysis
00:11:57 – Trading Versus Investing
00:13:59 – Bitcoin Gold Correlation
00:19:14 – Asset Rotation Strategies
00:22:29 – Eliminating Investment Bias
00:45:43 – Gold Silver Ratio Signals
00:48:11 – Short Term Correction Outlook
01:08:30 – Concluding Thoughts

Patrick Karim is a proprietary capital manager and chart trader since 2006. Patrick’s background in commerce, psychology, and an ongoing career in systems engineering has allowed him to evaluate trading scenarios systematically.

His psychology background helps him understand the human factor: overcoming stress, which is mostly responsible for maintaining a successful career.