The Final Bell

5-7-20

Another limit up day in the livestock…what does that mean for the near term? Relationship between grain & livestock producers in these current times. Will we see $500 Choice boxed beef? We go through these feelings every year with market movements, just this year its escalated feelings. We are socially isolated on a regular day in ag, but as it continues the feels are getting more stressed. China Phase One…where do we sit? WASDE report due out on Tuesday.

This weekend’s freeze, what does this mean for the Midwest? Weather in the Black Sea, Brazil sees less rain opportunities. What kind of summer do we suspect? Don’t forget next Tuesday’s WASDE report looking at the 20-21 marketing year. Cash cattle trade saw some .95 & then 1.10…that helped the limit up trade.

5-5-20

Planting progress. USDA report next week on the 12th. Delivery against the May futures starting to roll in. Will we see some changes to exports, ethanol and what could be on the balance sheet for old crop? Will there be a corn vs. bean war? War with China again? Livestock…rolling positions. Cash prices & box beef movement. So how does Wendy’s/McDonald’s COSTCO/HyVee limiting meat purchases. How is this long/short term going to affect the markets? How do you market your cattle? Weight concerns going into summer?

5-4-20

Big show list as expected…teared market on the cash last week. Boxed beef is over $400 the disparity between producer and packer continues. Will we kill big numbers this week? Social economics will weigh in on the plants…the length this will drag in on the markets. Hogs has just as big of problems as cattle, but they had a $32 rally on the front. Outlook into the weeks ahead. Grains: Non threatening weather for crops. May oats is higher than May corn…last time was the early ‘80s

There is some optimism with the livestock market. Grains didn’t end the week like many had hoped. A lot of little of things added to the trade for the grains. China goes on holiday next week, the big bean purchase of Thursday-did bring some disappointment on Friday. Planting progress has gone well in Nebraska but to the east there has been some issues. Plants at reduced rates still weighing in on the market trade, some higher cash offers, but livestock still backing up.

Has China returned to some buying of U.S. goods? Is there some improvement in the ethanol margins? Corn, beans & cattle bring a positive day. Fastest planting pace in a few years. Will there be a bean vs. corn acre war this year? Trade of the dollar today could that be supportive to the export markets? Live cattle saw higher number while feeders struggled.

Declaration on packing plants. Ethanol & gas reports are out, a bump in gasoline production. South America with crop production & weather in SA & the Black Sea. Global currencies.

Tyson NY Times ad, President Trump to order meat processors to stay open. May delivery, energies in the market trade. Real time livestock issues are weighing in on the grain markets. Lower crop ratings from the NASS in the weekly USDA report. Wheat will be the big player in the next 30 days.

Planting progress…a lot of talk has been corn, is a low in place or are we close? With crude oil drop continuing how is that going to effect ethanol? Could we see a time where funds will not go long? How is all the corn happenings going to effect the bean acres? What kind of pressure could wheat put on these markets (spring wheat). Pressure coming in from South America-how detrimental are these high prices in SA going to affect our grain markets? How is packing industry going to weigh in on the grains? How do we safety wise/health wise how do we make the plants more operational? It’s the people employment strategy of it all. Boxed beef is crazy high…trying to fill the cold storage as the cold storage meat moved to the meat counter.

Is corn going to finds its way into rations with DDGs becoming less and less? Ramifications of a snowball effect. Revisiting delivery on corn & the crude oil futures. These futures are deliverable, basis contracts…options expired today (Friday) for the May contracts. What does history show for corn? There is an ongoing pattern for corn. What should producers be doing while holding their old crop? How about soybeans old & new? Record boxed beef, will that continue into next week?