Policy headwinds are rising, but the work still needs doing. In this episode of the HRchat Podcast, host Bill Banham sits down with Pavel Shynkarenko, founder of Mellow, to unpack the ripple effects of proposed H-1B and L-1 visa reforms—and a possible 25% outsourcing levy—on the global freelance and contractor economy.

Pavel has spent more than 20 years in financial and HR technology, building platforms that help freelancers access fair pay, benefits, and social protections on par with employees. He brings a pragmatic, data-informed view of how these policy changes could reshape the cost calculus for U.S. employers, HR leaders, and cross-border teams in 2025 and beyond.

Together, Bill and Pavel explore how tightening U.S. visa policies could unintentionally accelerate the shift toward remote-first and distributed workforces. When companies face rising administrative costs or talent shortages at home, they often turn to Employer of Record (EOR) and Contractor of Record (COR) models to stay compliant while continuing to access top talent worldwide. Pavel walks through the hidden math behind total landed cost—how everything from currency fluctuations to social contributions can alter hiring decisions—and why the real bottleneck isn’t policy, but supply: there simply aren’t enough local workers to replace the global freelance engine that powers innovation.

The conversation then turns to platform evolution. Legacy marketplaces once promised cheaper rates through mass competition, but that model no longer serves enterprise needs. Today, trust, verified track records, and long-term fit matter far more. Pavel explains how Mellow is redefining the space by using AI and behavioral data to connect companies with freelancers they’re statistically more likely to succeed with—based on shared networks, past project outcomes, and verified credentials. This AI-first approach also simplifies complex backend tasks such as KYC, tax, and payments across 100+ countries, giving HR teams one compliance-ready platform to manage their distributed workforce.

Bill and Pavel also compare U.S. protectionist trends with Europe’s fragmented response. Some countries, especially those with aging populations and shrinking workforces, may loosen immigration for high-skill talent, while others tighten entry. The result? A global balancing act where companies must blend onshore, nearshore, and offshore strategies

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