The Higher Standard

From the very beginning of this data heavy episode Saied is salty, dare we say even – grump!  Come for the discussion on housing affordability versus renting, mortgage rate debates and updates on the National Association of Realtors antitrust lawsuits.  But, stay for the sassy attitude that Saied is bringing to the table.  Listen as Chris and Haroon are attacked at every turn by an unprovoked attack. 

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Resources:

As mortgage rates hit 8% for the first time in 23 years, affordability continues to fall off a cliff (The Kobeissi Letter via X)

There’s Never Been a Worse Time to Buy Instead of Rent (Wall Street Journal)

America’s Downtowns Are Empty. Fixing Them Will Be Expensive (Wall Street Journal)

Is the ongoing run of Fed rate hikes “taking away the American dream”? This economist says so (Yahoo! Finance via Instagram) 

Why the housing market is going from tough to terrible (CNN)

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate just hit 8% for the first time since 2000 as Treasury yields soar (CNBC)

Morgan Stanley makes a bold, tough prediction for home prices next year (The Street)

Fastest declining Housing Markets (1-year drop) (The Kobeissi Letter via X)

Rocky few months for NAR (The Real Deal via Instagram)

Real-Estate Commissions Could Be the Next Fee on the Chopping Block (Wall Street Journal)

Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

Your favorite bank CEO, Brian Moynihan is back at it again with a full on contradiction from just a year ago. Chris, Saied and Haroon waste no time calling him to the carpet. Not to be outdone, Peter Schiff pointed out that Bank of America has unrealized losses of approximately $47.8 billion dollars. The boys get in to home sales data which indicate that 2023 may be the slowest year since The Great Recession. Not helping things is the 10-year treasury which just moved above 5.00% for the first time since 2007. All the recession red flags are waving and The Higher Standard podcast is here to give you the raw, unfiltered truth.

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Resources:

Big banks are quietly cutting thousands of employees, and more layoffs are coming (CNBC)

Bank of America warned consumers they would be pushed to the ‘point of pain’—and CEO Brian Moynihan says we’ve now reached that point (Fortune)

BoA lost $47.8 Billion (Peter Schiff via Instagram)

Home Sales on Track for Slowest Year Since Housing Bust (Wall Street Journal)

10-year Treasury yield breaks above 4.9% for the first time since 2007 (CNBC)

Morgan Stanley shares fall over 6% as wealth management results disappoint (CNBC)

Oil jumps as Iran increases rhetoric against Israel, US stockpiles drop (Yahoo! Finance)

Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

Spoiler alert, it's cheaper to rent than it is to buy in many markets and Chris, Saied and Haroon are here to break it all down. They use the Austin market, which was a major growth market during the pandemic, as a prime example of the stress that may be forcing rental rates further down. They take a break to celebrate some of the nation's top colleges eliminating student loans entirely, but then get back to the apartment market by citing Miami's downward rental trends. Finally, to cap the show, Chris and Saied talk a whole lot of trash about novice syndicators like Brad Sumrok. Oh, and apparently Haroon opens up apple juice jars with his rear end.

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Resources:

Mortgage Cost Surge Makes It Cheaper to Rent in Tough US Market (Bloomberg)

Austin has over 120K apartments in pipeline (The Real Deal

Some of the nation’s top colleges are eliminating student loans (CNBC)

Miami’s Rental Market Roller Coaster Is Headed Downhill (Wall Street Journal)

Multifamily mentor Brad Sumrok built an empire. Now, the cracks are showing (The Real Deal)

Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

Saied, Chris and Haroon are back in the lab with a fun filled dive in to the wild swings of CPI, PPI and a full breakdown on whether or not this will ultimately influence the Fed's next meeting. The boys unpack some housing data and similarities to The Great Recession's housing market bubble and today.

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Resources:

Consumer prices rose 0.4% in September, more than expected (CNBC)

September PPI inflation rises above expectations (The Kobeissi Letter via X)

Dollar steady on underlying moderate PPI data, dovish Fed officials (Reuters)

Incomes are falling in 17 states. Here's where Americans are falling furthest behind (CBS News)

The housing market looks like a bubble, 2008 regulator says (CNN)

Goldman Sachs says home prices are now more unaffordable for the average buyer than they were during the 2008 housing bubble. Here are the 2 things they say would have to happen for home prices to crash (Business Insider)

Auto-loan interest rates are now at their highest since 2008 (The kobeissi Letter)

How this 77-year-old widow lost $661,000 in a common tech scam: ‘I realized I had been defrauded of everything’(CNBC)

Housing industry urges Powell to stop raising interest rates or risk an economic hard landing (CNBC)

Wholesale inflation rose 0.5% in September, more than expected (CNBC)

Fed officials see ‘restrictive’ policy staying in place until inflation eases, minutes show (CNBC)

Bankman-Fried was very concerned about his image, including his big hair, ex-girlfriend Ellison testifies (CNBC)

Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

Chris, Saied and Haroon have been building up slowly on our collective knowledge and discussions about the bond market. Well, in this episode we put it all together and talk about how its current status is likely going to impact you and all the news you're hearing. But first, the boys jump in to some compelling financial facts they quote from one of their favorite X pages - The Kobeissi Letter. One of the boys' favorite economists Mohamed A. El-Erian says that "something is likely to break" after the most recent jobs data came out. And, we are in the worst bond selloff since 1787 which allegedly ends the "Free-Money" era. Chris and Saied also lovingly sound off on Internet trolls because it wouldn't be an episode of The Higher Standard without some sassy banter.

Resources:

The Kobeissi Letter (via X)

How much can and should the government borrow? (Bloomberg Opinion via Instagram)

The 5% bond market means pain is heading everyone’s way (Bloomberg)

‘Something Is Likely to Break’ After Jobs Data, El-Erian Says (Bloomberg)

Markets Brief: Will Bond Yields Top 5%? (Morningstar) 

Long Bonds’ Historic 46% Meltdown Rivals Burst of Dot-Com Bubble (Bloomberg)

Worst US Bond Selloff Since 1787 Marks End of Free-Money Era (Bloomberg)

Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

Redfin can't cut ties will the National Association of Realtors ("NAR") because they have a monopoly over the Multiple Listing Service or "MLS." The MLS is a database established by cooperating real estate brokers to provide data about properties for sale and it is under the sole dominion and control of NAR. The MLS allows Realtors to see one another's listings of properties for sale with the goal of connecting homebuyers to sellers. There is only one problem, you have to belong to NAR to have access to it. Chris, Saied and Haroon get in to and give you their perspective of how this looming fight may shake out. Saied then pivots to an article by the Wall Street Journal in which they break down the elements of why your home may not be selling. Lastly, Chris goes deep on the Brentwood Airbnb tenant who has refused to leave and has not paid rent in over 540 days that made national headlines. Also, fun fact, Haroon belongs to a very curious WhatsApp thread titled "Sex Talk" which he states he uses the end-to-end encryption service to talk to friends about "sports." Does he have a valid excuse? Tune in to find out...

Resources:

NAR’t so easy: MLS control means partners can’t make a clean break (The Real Deal)

Why Is Your Home Not Selling? 5 Reasons It’s Sitting on the Market (Wall Street Journal)

Brentwood Airbnb tenant refuses to leave or pay rent for 540 days (The Real Deal)

Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

You asked for it and we heard you. Today's episode is a focused single topic edition with a deep dive in to everything you need to know about The Fed. How its Board functions, how they get the positions and more. Of course we had to take a few shots at Neel Kashkari because he often has an opinion that frustrates Chris and Saied. Then as a special ending, we cap the show with an homage to Saied's favorite topic, cryptocurrency. We cover five strange facts about Sam Bankman-Fried that are shockingly true. Stay tuned all the way to the end because some of these will blow you away.

Resources:

The 5 weirdest Sam Bankman-Fried stories Michael Lewis told to ’60 Minutes’ (Market Watch)

Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

After a long needed week off of production, the boys are back in the studio. Haroon kicks off the episode by actually making sure that all three red lights are on to ensure that no video or audio will be missed for this reunion episode. Chris spent a week in Kauai and returns to Saied and Haroon with some new found emotional warmth, no jokes about the male anatomy, but plenty of "aloha!" Jumping right in to things, Chris discusses how frustrated he is with the clickbait title and interview by The Fed's Kashkari to Yahoo! Finance. Then Saied and Chris go down a long rabbit hole of what holding rates "higher for longer" actually means for the global economy and not just the United States. For those of you who want to know "Is Saied still coughing every damn episode?" The answer is absolutely and we leave every single one in the show to annoy you as much as it annoys us.

Resources:

Fed's Kashkari: 40% chance of needing 'meaningfully' higher rates (Yahoo! Finance)

What could break under higher-for-longer interest rates? (Reuters)

Rising Loan Costs Are Hurting Riskier Companies (Wall Street Journal)

The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator rose less than expected in August (CNBC)

Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

Saied, Haroon and Chris wanted to find a way to give back to the THS community and "thank you" all for your support. We know that at times we can't and don't always answer questions in the "DMs" as well as we would like to. So, we posted a Q&A opportunity on our respective Instagram accounts. We were overwhelmed with the wonderful questions asked and we can't thank each and every single one of you enough. This show is literally funded by your small gestures. Honest five star reviews and your engagement make long nights of editing, mixing and mastering audio for streaming and managing social media accounts worth it. The Higher Standard podcast is what is today because you have enabled us to keep going. Since we got so many questions, we will be trying to do more Q&As and make actually attempt to do a live show on YouTube in the not too distant future. Until then, we hope you enjoy the episode.

Resources:

Everything You Need to Know About the Bond Market (The Motley Fool)

10-Year Treasury Bond Yield: What It IS and Why It Matters (Investopedia)

How the 10-year U.S. Treasury Note impacts mortgage rates (MCT Trading)

Fed’s interest rate history: The federal funds rate from 1981 to the present (Bankrate)

Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

In a spectacular display of machismo, Saied gives Chris not one, but three separate fist pounds during this sensational episode. Maybe Saied was just happy that the Federal Reserve left rates unchanged? Maybe it was the Fed's terrible track record of forecasting what the economy is likely to do? I guess we will never know, but what you will know for sure after this show is that we may be in the biggest housing bubble ever, Zillow shifted their 2024 home price forecast down and 30-year mortgage rates have in fact hit 8%. Economic data, financial literacy and a healthy portion of fisting. What else could you ask for?

Resources:

The Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged. Here’s how it impacts your money (CNBC)

Take the Fed forecast with a grain of salt. It has a terrible track record (CNBC)

Biggest Housing Bubble Ever (Nick Gerli via X)

Zillow once again shifts its 2024 home price forecast. Here’s why (Fortune)

The Fed would be ‘flying blind’ on interest rate decisions after a government shutdown (CNBC)

30-Year Mortgage Rates Rise Again, Flirting with Historic Peak (Investopedia)

Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.