The Higher Standard

Please place all seat back and tray tables in their locked and upright positions, because you're about to go on a long voyage of economic data baby! Saied, Chris and Haroon are back and they have a lot to talk about in this episode. The September 20th Fed announcement hasn't even happened yet and Goldman Sachs is already saying that the Fed is unlikely to raise rates in November. So, naturally The Higher Standard had to chime in to the debate. Chris offers up a questionable segue into why a soft landing could not only be elusive, but then explains why the current Fed Policy is costing the Fed between $100 billion and $200 billion themselves. Chris and Saied then dive down deep in to the dark canyon of a hole that is the inverted yield curve where they discuss the wide spread between the 2-year and 10-year treasuries. Which also happens to be at it deepest inversion since 1981. Haroon provide an elegant hypothetical answer to an intimate personal question and legendary investor Jeremy Grantham is ringing alarm bells.

Resources:

Fed unlikely to raise rates in November, says Goldman Sachs (Reuters)

Why a Soft Landing Could Prove Elusive (Wall Street Journal)

Fed losses breach $100 billion as interest costs rise (Reuters)

Economist says S&P 500 will sink 40% due to recession (Business News)

Spread between 2- and 10-year Treasuries at deepest inversion since '81 (Reuters)

Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham rang the alarm on stocks and recession, warned about the housing market, and hailed Elon Musk's Tesla. Here are his 10 best quotes from a recent event (Business Insider)

The bond market has broken the longest time ever with a 10-year field, 3 month inversion at 212 days per Bloomberg (Unusual Whales via Instagram) 

Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

With an uncharacteristically early recording time, the boys come in extra hot and caffeinated. Saied finally admits to being 1 of the podcast's one star reviews; however, the show did receive a real, legitimate 3 star review from a listener. We wanted to address it head on and talk about the data behind the insurance position which upset someone. They, of course, save the expletive filled rage for the end of the show. This episode covers all the underlying detail of the latest inflation print which continues to show that the real cost of living is likely higher for most consumers. Then Chris and Saied pivot to an article on banks having $1.2 trillion dollars in "hot" deposits which they believe signals a much larger concern. Home prices according to Zillow seem to suggest that there have been tremendous gains still despite even some areas having lived through minor corrections in recent months. What does this mean? Saied and Chris will tell you their thoughts. Make sure to stay tuned all the way to the end because this one gets extra sassy in the last quarter of the show.

Resources:

Here’s the inflation breakdown for August 2023, in one chart (CNBC)

Banks Load Up on $1.2 Trillion in Risky ‘Hot’ Deposits (Wall Street Journal)

Real incomes fell last year. No wonder Americans were bummed out (Axios)

Home price shift, as tracked by the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) (Lance Lambert via X)

August core inflation, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3%, hotter than expected (CNBC)

Fears over access to credit hit highest level in more than a decade, New York Fed survey shows (CNBC)

Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

Haroon has returned and has already put in for his next PTO request in November where he thought he would be visiting the European country of Belize. While discovering that being Muslim is not an ethnicity, we quickly hop on over to a warning issued by JP Morgan's CEO, Jamie Dimon. Jamie D is suggesting that it would be a "huge mistake" to think the economy will boom. Yet, at the same time, new data suggests that the fall in home prices may already be over. Confused? Don't be, we explain what we think is happening. All three of us discuss the Fed's own economist's prediction of a "Goldilocks" scenario where we have no recession, low inflation, and positive growth. Then to cap the show Haroon provides some important life advice.

Resources:

Jamie Dimon says it’s a ‘huge mistake’ to think economy will boom with so many risks out there (CNBC)

The Fall in Home Prices May Already Be Over (Wall Street Journal)

The US is on course to build more apartments than ever in 2023 (Chartr Daily Instagram)

Business Bankruptcies Soar in August as Rising Interest Rates Bite (Bloomberg)

The Fed's own economists now expect a Goldilocks scenario: No recession, low inflation, and positive growth(Business Insider)

The man who bought the NYSE just made a $11.9 billion bet that he can fast-track your mortgage for far less than you’re paying now (Fortune)

Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

In their second show without Haroon, who continues to be out on PTO in “The Sac,” Chris and Saied decide to crack a few of their own cans during the show in order to pay homage.  Shortly after lamenting the value of Haroon’s contributions they jump in to New York City’s crackdown on Airbnb and what this could mean if other cities follow suit.  They examine the Fed’s Beige Book data, what it tells us about the Fed’s perspective going into the September Fed meeting and give their predictions on whether or not there will be another 25 bps rate increase to Fed Funds.  They then pivot to Roku’s stock jumping after laying off 10% of their workforce while WeWork is reportedly renegotiating all of its leases.  The round out the show by reading on the National Association of Realtors new class action lawsuit, but stop short of a full analysis because they are going to need more time to review the legal filings. It is an episode chalked full of laughs and facts, so make sure to wear your manpon.  

Resources:

New York City's crackdown on Airbnb and short-term rental goes into effect (Guardian)

Fed's Beige Book Shows Slower Activity Growth and Hiring in Peak Summer (Bloomberg)

Roku stock jumps after company says it will lay off 10% of workforce (CNBC)

WeWork CEO says company is ‘here to stay’ as it renegotiates ‘nearly all our leases’ (CNBC)

Monumental NAR lawsuit snags class action status (The Real Deal)

Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

They boys open the show without Haroon who is once again out on PTO while he visits his in-laws in "Sac." They quickly jump in to a discussion regarding the changing landscape of home insurance in America. Many home insurers are starting to or have already cut natural disaster from policies as climate risks continue to mount. As a proxy, Chris and Saied leverage a Wall Street Journal article which asks the question "Are we ready for a $100 billion dollar catastrophe?" Global insured losses from natural disasters and the number of billion-dollar insured loss events worldwide have increased over time visibly. After all the negativity, Chris wanted to make a pivot in to something positive and highlights an article from CNBC which identifies the three things that Americans say define wealth in their mind. Shockingly none of them require making money, but most of them are a byproduct of making money. Without Haroon in the studio, you will need to pay homage to him by opening a beverage mid-show in order to cover for him in his obnoxious absence.

Resources:

The Fed's preferred inflation measure stayed high in July — and consumers are continuing to spend (CNN Business)

Bigger Pockets x The Data Deli Instagram (Instagram)

Full impact of Fed hikes still to be seen in real economy, ex-vice chair Blinder says (Reuters)

Home insurers cut natural disasters from policies as climate risks grow (The Washington Post)

Are We Ready for a $100 Billion Catastrophe? How About $200 Billion? (The Wall Street Journal)

Americans say these 3 things define wealth -none of them require making a lot of money (CNBC)

Americans Are Bailing on Their Home Insurance (The Wall Street Journal)

Unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 3.8% in August as payrolls increased by 187,000 (CNBC)

Here's where the jobs are for August 2023 - in one chart (CNBC)

Shoppers pull back on 'big ticket' items as furniture, appliance sales lag (Yahoo! Finance)

Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

It was bad enough that Michael Burry - the investor who profited from the subprime mortgage crisis by shorting the 2007 mortgage bond market - just took a $1.6 billion dollar short on the market again. Now, the man, the myth, the legend is that the great investor in world history - Warren Buffett - has just dumped $8 billion dollars of stock and is moving to a cash position. The boy think these are very telling signs of an impending recessionary economy by two men who know what they are doing. At the same time, a new report out states that 61% of Americans are living paycheck-to-paycheck and US department stores are seeing higher credit delinquencies amid strained spending. It's a wild episode that is capped by a special collaboration between Mitch McConnell and Jay-Z.

Resources:

Warren Buffett just dumped $8 billion of stocks (here's why economists are worried) (The Street)

61% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck — inflation is still squeezing budgets (CNBC)

US department stores see higher credit delinquencies amid strained spending (Reuters)

US labor market loses steam as job openings, resignations decline (Reuters)

U.S. job growth slowed sharply to 177,000 in August, below expectations, ADP says (CNBC)

US consumer spending in July surges; weekly jobless claims fall (Yahoo! Finance)

Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

The boys are off and running with shenanigans from the beginning. Haroon inadvertently opens his energy drink before the show started so he can't entertain you with his usual unnecessary interruptions, but don't worry, he filled his can with water for reasons we still don't fully understand. They spend a good amount of time recapping Jerome Powell's commentary from Jackson Hole, Wyoming which were clearly designed to strike fear in to the markets. One of their favorite economists, Mohamed El-Erian is very concerned that the Fed's actions to date may have 'destroyed the housing market by crushing both supply and demand.' Which was a fantastic segue in to the complete trash nonsense that Zillow is attempting to market. What do you do when home affordability is at an all time low? Rates are rising, home values haven't come down. Well, if you're Zillow, you offer a 1% down payment program to lure in homebuyers so you can sell more leads to Realtors.

Resources:

Fed Chair Powell calls inflation ‘too high’ and warns that ‘we are prepared to raise rates further’ (CNBC)

Jerome Powell says it ‘takes time’ for slowdown in rent rises to show up in the Fed’s inflation gauge (Market Watch)

Fed's Mester sees another rate hike, says rate cuts may have to wait (Reuters)

The Fed may have destroyed the housing market by crushing both supply and demand, top economist Mohamed El-Erian says (Business Insider)

Zillow offers 1% down payment to lure homebuyers as mortgage rates hit 22-year high (NY Post)

Goldman Sachs unloads another business acquired under CEO David Solomon (CNBC)

A 'valuation reset' hits the IPO market as Better stock crashes 90% after debut (Yahoo! Finance)

Why the Era of Historically Low Interest Rates Could Be Over (Wall Street Journal)

Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

After wasting an hour eating Chick-fil-A, the boys are off to a slow start this episode.  Maybe it was the unnecessary amounts of sodium.  After gaining some traction and coming out of a food coma, Chris dives in to the ideology of a “rolling recession” and what this could mean for you.  They pivot in to an interesting Yahoo! Finance article on the American retailers and restaurants that are bracing for the impact of student loan payments restarting.  Many of these topics we have all covered together before; however, there is more data and probable impacts that can be seen in the economy that should not be ignored.  Chris and Saied navigate through 30-year mortgage rate and mortgage application charts suggesting that the trending is indicative of recessionary stress.  And finally, you all get to hear the coughing that Haroon does behind the scenes which we edit out for your audio pleasure.

Resources:

The experience-hungry American consumer is already crashing the economy into a ‘rolling recession,’ Oxford Economics says (Fortune)

America's retailers and restaurants brace for a shock from student loan payments (Yahoo! Finance)

US 30-year mortgage rate soars to highest since 2000 (Reuters)

S&P just downgraded some big banks. Here are the 5 that are impacted (Yahoo! Finance)

Powell Is Using Jackson Hole as Final Push in Inflation Fight (Yahoo! Finance)

Home sales fall again in July, as supply drops to near quarter-century low (CNBC)

Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

Business loans, also known as “Commercial and Industrial” lending is shifting as the landscape of the economy pivots.  The boys break down what you need to know and what this means for you.  They spend some time on the generational differences in the expectation of workers as they dive in to a CNBC article that states “American workers are demanding almost $80,000 a year to take a new job.”  In what is arguably the world’s worst segue they jump in to the car market and some of the changes the industry is experiencing that are early indicators of strain on the consumer.  Chris provides a colorful backstory on the never-ending “beef” between Nouriel Roubini and CZ.  Saied awkwardly forces in an unnecessary article on mortgage rates to cap the show and Haroon fumbles the audio, but blames it on the “inter-webs.”  We also got a new, spectacular review.  We appreciate every single one, so much.  Thank you!  Also, if you haven’t, we are not friends.  No pressure….

Resources:

Commercial and industrial lending falls again this week, but lending by small banks is up (Market Watch)

American workers are demanding almost $80,000 a year to take a new job (CNBC)

Car Prices Might Be Unsustainable for Buyers (Wall Street Journal)

How to Get Rich and Famous From a Stock Market Crash (Wall Street Journal)

Mortgage rates hit their highest point since 2000 (CNBC)

Toronto Mortgage Rates 1981 (Instagram)

Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

Well, damn it, mortgage rates just hit their highest level in 21 years and Chris, Saied and Haroon are here to tell you why.  Spoiler alert, they think the yield curve inversion has something to do with it and that the 10-year treasury has more to move up before the end of the year signaling 8% to end the year for mortgage rates as a possibility.  The Fed dropped their minutes where some of the FOMC members were apparently quoted as suggesting that another 25bps increase may be necessary; however, our Chief Economist is declaring shenanigans.  Chris pops off on real estate company Compass and apparently Janet Yellen micro-doses mushrooms when she visits China. 

Resources:

Mortgage Rates Just Hit Highest Level In 21 Years (Forbes)

Mortgage rates could hit 8%, economists say, citing a worrying sign not seen since the Great Recession (Market Watch)

Fed officials see ‘upside risks’ to inflation possibly leading to more rate hikes, minutes show (CNBC)

Unpaid commissions key ingredient in Compass’ cash-flow positivity (The Real Deal)

Did Janet Yellen Accidentally Eat Psychedelics In China? What To Know About The Sold-Out Dish Cooked With Hallucinogenic Mushrooms (Forbes)

Here's when the San Francisco Fed expects households to run out of COVID-era extra savings (Morning Star)

Fed Saw ‘Significant’ Inflation Risk That May Merit More Hikes (Bloomberg)

How Severe Is the Housing Shortage? It Depends on How You Define ‘Shortage’  (Wall Street Journal)

Wall Street Is Ready to Scoop Up Commercial Real Estate on the Cheap (Wall Street Journal)

Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.