Last week, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi made his maiden visit to Washington under the new Biden administration. It was all sunlight and good vibes and—for a week—American and Indian policymakers ignored the fact that a darkening cloud is gathering over U.S.-India relations in the form of potential U.S. sanctions. 

Milan’s guest on the show this week, political scientist Sameer Lalwani, thinks that this threat of sanctions is very much real. Sameer is a senior fellow in Asia strategy at the Stimson Center in Washington and an expert on issues ranging from nuclear deterrence to national security decision and counterinsurgency. 

Sameer and Milan discuss how India might run afoul of the U.S. Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), what the Biden administration might do to avoid a crisis in bilateral relations, and how India might help its own case. Plus, the two discuss how the fallout in Afghanistan will affect India-Pakistan relations and the prospect of future violence between the two nuclear-armed neighbors.

1. Sameer Lalwani, “What India can do to avoid US sanctions over Russia,” Hindustan Times, September 22, 2021.
2. Sameer Lalwani, “Strategizing to Exit Afghanistan: From Risk Avoidance to Risk Management,” War on the Rocks, March 29, 2021. 
3. Sameer Lalwani and Tyler Sagerstrom, “What the India–Russia Defence Partnership Means for US Policy,” Survival (2021).
4. Sameer Lalwani, Frank O’Donnell, Tyler Sagerstrom, and Akriti Vasudeva, “The Influence of Arms: Explaining the Durability of India–Russia Alignment,” Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs, January 15, 2021.
5. Sameer Lalwani, “America Can’t Ignore the Next Indo-Pakistani Crisis,” War on the Rocks, February 26, 2021. 
6. Ashley J. Tellis, “The Biden-Modi Summit and the Future of U.S.-India Relations,” Grand Tamasha, September 21, 2021.