In this “Big Picture” episode of my podcast I get together with leading financial commentator Pete Wargent, who brings decades of perspective to his views, and we discuss the clues in the news as to what’s ahead for our economy and the property markets. 

Today we discuss the amended outlook for interest rates and what this means for our housing markets, an update on what APRA had to say about when they plan to loosen their lending buffers, what America’s new president Donald Trump may mean for Australia, the Help to Buy Scheme, and Australia’s ongoing Per Capita Recession. 

I hope by the end of today’s show you’ll more clarity about what all this means for our economy and housing markets in 2025. 

Takeaways 

•     Inflation has recently fallen to 2.1%, but interest rates won’t fall any time soon. 
•     APRA's lending buffers are not set to change soon. 
•     Donald Trump’s tariff move could change the game for Aussie property investors 
•     The rental price boom is showing signs of easing, but rents will keep rising in 2025 
•     2025 is expected to be a steady year for property, with slower capital growth 
•     Mortgage stress remains a concern for many homeowners. 
•     Government schemes like Help to Buy aim to assist first-time buyers, but will only increase property values. 
•     Wealth in Australia continues to rise despite our economic challenges. 
•     Black Friday sales have shifted consumer spending habits. 

Chapters 

00:00 Overview of the Year in Property 

09:50 Impact of Government Policies on Housing 

21:34 Government Schemes and Their Implications 

27:04 Navigating Uncertainty in Property Investment 

31:47 Understanding Market Trends 

Links and Resources: 

Metropole’s Strategic Property Plan – to help both beginning and experienced investors 

Get a bundle of free reports and eBooks – www.PodcastBonus.com.au  

Pete Wargent’s blog 

Pete Wargent’s new book, The Buy Right Approach to Property Investing 

Pete’s other book – The New Wealth Way 

Get a bundle of free reports and eBooks – www.PodcastBonus.com.au  

Also, please subscribe to my new podcast Demographics Decoded with Simon Kuestenmacher – just look for Demographics Decoded wherever you are listening to this podcast and subscribe so each week we can unveil the trends shaping your future. 

Shownotes plus more here: What Will 2025 Bring for Australian Real Estate? Your Big Picture Guidewith Pete Wargent

In this special end-of-year episode, we take a step back to reflect on the rollercoaster that was 2024 in the housing markets and gear up for what promises to be an equally fascinating 2025.

And who better to do it with than Pete Wargent, one of Australia's most respected financial and housing market analysts?

Together, we’ll unpack the highs, lows, and surprises of this past year, and share the lessons we've learned over the past year and offer insights into what we can expect in 2025, including predictions for regional markets and potential risks for investors.

Throughout our conversation you'll find that we emphasise the importance of maintaining a long-term perspective in property investment and crafting a solid strategy to navigate the evolving market landscape.

Takeaways

• ·       2024 demonstrated the importance of having long-term investment strategies.
• ·       The housing market showed unexpected resilience in 2024.
• ·       Job market strength has been a significant surprise this year.
• ·       The rental crisis will continue to be a pressing issue in 2025.
• ·       Investors should focus on owning quality properties rather than quantity.
• ·       Construction costs are not increasing as much as they were before, but won't decrease in the long term.
• ·       Understanding market cycles is crucial for property investors.
• ·       Melbourne is emerging as a potentially undervalued market.
• ·       Having a clear investment plan is essential for investment success.

 Chapters

00:00 Reflecting on 2024: A Year in Review

08:45 The Impact of Interest Rates on Property

15:10 Challenges Faced by the Property Market

21:33 Looking Ahead: Predictions for 2025

27:29 Summarizing 2024: Resilience in the Market

29:40 The Impact of Pessimism on Success

34:35 The Importance of Optimism and Teamwork

34:45 Introduction to Real Estate Investment

34:46 Understanding Market Trends and Analysis

Links and Resources:

Metropole’s Strategic Property Plan – to help both beginning and experienced investors 

Get a bundle of free reports and eBooks – www.PodcastBonus.com.au  

Pete Wargent’s blog 

Pete Wargent’s new book, The Buy Right Approach to Property Investing 

Pete’s other book – The New Wealth Way 

Get a bundle of free reports and eBooks – www.PodcastBonus.com.au  

Also, please subscribe to my new podcast Demographics Decoded with Simon Kuestenmacher – just look for Demographics Decoded wherever you are listening to this podcast and subscribe so each week we can unveil the trends shaping your future. 

It’s customary at the end of the year to look back at the year that was and then look forward to making some predictions for our housing markets for the year ahead, and in today’s show, Dr Andrew Wilson and I explore the trends that will shape the property markets in 2025. 

Takeaways

•        The housing market in 2024 has been consolidating after a strong rebound in 2023.
• 2025 is likely to be a year of 2 halves, and the markets will rebound when interest rates fall.
•        Melbourne's property market is underperforming compared to other capitals but offers significant future opportunities as you can buy well located properties with substantial built in equity.
•        Interest rates will likely remain steady till the middle of 2025, impacting buyer activity and market sentiment.
•        Over 2024, Brisbane, Perth, and Adelaide property markets grew strongly and attracted investors, often buying secondary properties sight unseen
•        Rental growth has slowed due to affordability barriers, but vacancy rates remain extremely low.
•        Investors are returning to the market, particularly in states with strong capital growth.
•        The economic outlook remains positive, supporting housing market stability in 2025.
•        Local factors will drive price growth in 2025, rather than national trends.
•        Understanding demographic trends is crucial for property investors.
•        A strategic property plan can help investors navigate the current market conditions with more certainty.

Chapters

01:24 Year in Review: Housing Market Insights

04:16 Trends and Predictions for 2025

07:31 Regional Market Dynamics: Brisbane, Perth, and Adelaide

10:19 Melbourne's Market Challenges and Opportunities

13:15 Interest Rates: Current Landscape and Future Outlook

16:10 Investor Behavior and Market Shifts

19:21 Rental Market Trends and Affordability Issues

22:14 Investment Opportunities in a Changing Market

25:04 Consolidation and Future Growth Prospects

32:16 Introduction to Property Investment Trends

36:14 Introduction to Real Estate Investment

36:15 Understanding Market Trends and Analysis

37:39 Special Offers and Resources for Listeners

39:02 Understanding Property Investment Strategies

Links and Resources:  

Michael Yardney  

Get the team at Metropole to help build your personal Strategic Property Plan Click here and have a chat with us 

Get a bundle of free reports and eBooks – www.PodcastBonus.com.au   

Also, please subscribe to my new podcast Demographics Decoded with Simon Kuestenmacher – just look for  Demographics Decoded wherever you are listening to this podcast and subscribe so each week we can unveil the trends shaping your future. 

Shownotes plus more here: Looking Back, Leaping Forward: Dr. Andrew Wilson’s Predictions for 2025

Today Simon Kuestenmacher and I explore why young Australians are increasingly delaying their dreams of homeownership. 

We've all heard about skyrocketing property prices and the challenges of securing a mortgage but, as you’ll hear, there's more to the story than just affordability.  

Sure, property prices present a significant barrier, but we also examine lifestyle changes, such as extended periods in education and the prioritisation of experiences over material possessions, reshaping the housing market landscape.  

We also discuss some very important demographic shifts, including the transition of millennials from urban rentals to suburban family homes, and highlight the rise of build-to-rent and co-living spaces. 

Links and Resources:  

Michael Yardney 

Get the team at Metropole to help build your personal Strategic Property Plan Click here and have a chat with us 

Get a bundle of free reports and eBooks – www.PodcastBonus.com.au   

Also, please subscribe to my new podcast Demographics Decoded with Simon Kuestenmacher – just look for  Demographics Decoded wherever you are listening to this podcast and subscribe so each week we can unveil the trends shaping your future. 

Shownotes plus more here: Homeownership Dreams on Hold: What’s Really Stopping Younger Generations? With Simon Kuestenmacher

In this episode of Michael Yardney Podcast I’m joined by Brett Warren to challenge a common belief many beginning property investors hold: that those who bought into the market 20 years ago had it easy.  

It’s a complaint I hear often—‘If only I had bought back then, property was so affordable.’  

But what if we told you that investing in property has never been easy? The investors who succeeded weren’t simply lucky—they were those who stayed the course through thick and thin. 

We’ll also share the story of Joseph, one of our clients who bought a 2 bedroom apartment in Marrickville, Sydney, back in 2008 and paid $280,000 for his property, which is now valued at nearly $1 million.  

Takeaways

•        Investing in property has always been challenging, regardless of the era.
•        Long-term thinking is crucial for successful property investment.
•        Emotional resilience helps investors navigate market fluctuations.
•        A strategic plan is essential for achieving investment goals.
•        Quality assets should be prioritised over the quantity of properties owned.
•        Market cycles are inevitable; understanding them is critical to success.
•        Investors should focus on fundamentals rather than short-term data.
•        Education and self-improvement are vital for financial success.
•        Networking with experienced investors can provide valuable insights.
•        Patience and a long-term vision are necessary for wealth creation.

Chapters

04:39 Long-Term Focus and Patience in Investing

07:40 Emotional Resilience in Property Investment

10:28 The Importance of a Strategic Plan

13:31 Quality Over Quantity in Property Assets

16:47 Understanding Market Cycles and Trends

19:30 Navigating Interest Rates and Economic Factors

22:46 The Window of Opportunity in Property Investment

24:45 The Importance of Reading for Wealth

Links and Resources:  

Michael Yardney  

Get the team at Metropole to help build your personal Strategic Property Plan Click here and have a chat with us 

Get a bundle of free reports and eBooks – www.PodcastBonus.com.au   

Also, please subscribe to my new podcast Demographics Decoded with Simon Kuestenmacher – just look for  Demographics Decoded wherever you are listening to this podcast and subscribe so each week we can unveil the trends shaping your future. 

Shownotes plus more here: The Myth of ‘Easy’ Property Wealth – What Investors Need to Know, with Brett Warren

Shownotes plus more here: The Myth of ‘Easy’ Property Wealth – What Investors Need to Know, with Brett Warren 

Our real estate markets have surprised many on the upside this year– especially considering high interest rate environment, but what lies ahead for our real estate markets now? 

That’s what we discuss in today’s show 

Looking back at how previous property cycles played out, I delved back into my memory to see what lessons I could learn from past property cycles I realised that I’ve probably learned more from the many mistakes I’ve made than from the things I got right. 

Now there’s a powerful lesson in itself! 

Anyway…in today’s show I share 4 key lessons I wish I’d learned earlier in my investment journey about property cycles. 

Takeaways

·       Understanding property cycles is crucial for investors.

·       The current property cycle began in 2023 and is still evolving.

·       Market sentiment often misguides investors about property cycles.

·       Quality properties outperform cheaper ones in the long run.

·       Different property segments react differently to market changes.

·       Allow for unforeseen events, or 'X factors', in investment planning.

·       Investors should focus on long-term strategies rather than short-term gains.

·       Investors should be cautious of crowd psychology in property markets.

·       Planning is essential for successful property investment.

Chapters

06:31 Market Sentiment and Its Impact

11:46 Diverse Property Markets

19:43 The X Factor in Property Investment

26:23 The Three States of Happiness

30:17 Introduction to the Podcast and Its Value

31:38 Encouragement to Share and Subscribe

32:05 Resources for Further Learning

32:27 Introduction to the Podcast and Its Purpose

32:59 Understanding Property Investment Strategies

Links and Resources:  

Michael Yardney 

Get the team at Metropole to help build your personal Strategic Property Plan Click here and have a chat with us 

Get a bundle of free reports and eBooks – www.PodcastBonus.com.au   

Also, please subscribe to my new podcast Demographics Decoded with Simon Kuestenmacher – just look for  Demographics Decoded wherever you are listening to this podcast and subscribe so each week we can unveil the trends shaping your future. 

Shownotes plus more here: 4 lessons about the property cycle all property investors must understand 

In this episode of Michal Yardney Podcast, I share Warren Buffett's Ovarian Lottery theory, which highlights how luck plays a role in shaping our circumstances and opportunities.  

In general when we talk about success, we focus on hard work, talent, and determination, but Warren Buffett points out that luck plays an equally important role. 

The circumstances of one's birth can significantly affect life outcomes, and the gap between the wealthy and the poor is widening.  

Those born into wealth are more likely to continue accumulating it, while those without such support face greater challenges in building their own financial security. 

While the world is getting richer overall, the gap between the wealthiest and poorest is widening, and this is reflected in the housing market and the broader economy.  

The ovarian lottery has a lasting impact on society. By acknowledging its role, we can work towards a future where success is determined not by the circumstances of our birth, but by our efforts, talents, and the opportunities we create for ourselves and others. 

I also discuss the concept of 'big rocks' in life, emphasising how vital it is to prioritise significant goals and tasks.  

I stress the importance of gratitude and social responsibility, encouraging myself and others to reflect on our advantages and the significance of helping those in need. 

Takeaways 

•     Warren Buffett's Ovarian Lottery theory illustrates the role of luck in success. 
•     Gratitude is crucial for appreciating one's circumstances. 
•     Recognizing the advantages we have fosters empathy  
•     Reflecting on our luck can lead to a more compassionate society. 
•     Social responsibility is a moral obligation for the fortunate. 
•     Big rocks are the essential tasks and goals in life. Prioritising big rocks leads to a more fulfilling life. 

Chapters 

00:59 The Importance of Humility and Gratitude in Success 

01:30 The Ovarian Lottery Concept 

04:22 Luck and Success: A Personal Reflection 

07:42 Empathy and Social Responsibility 

10:35 Gratitude and Life's Advantages 

14:03 Understanding Big Rocks: The Foundation of Priorities 

19:49 The Big Rock Story: A Lesson in Prioritization 

23:04 Implementing the Big Rocks Concept in Daily Life 

27:49 Understanding Property Investment Strategies 

Links and Resources:  

Michael Yardney  

Get the team at Metropole to help build your personal Strategic Property Plan Click here and have a chat with us 

Get a bundle of free reports and eBooks – www.PodcastBonus.com.au   

Also, please subscribe to my new podcast Demographics Decoded with Simon Kuestenmacher – just look for  Demographics Decoded wherever you are listening to this podcast and subscribe so each week we can unveil the trends shaping your future. 

Shownotes plus more here: Investing Success Isn’t What You Think: Warren Buffett’s Mind-Blowing Secret Revealed

While the Reserve Bank of Australia has kept rates on hold yet again, the big question is—how much longer will this last? 

And more importantly, when might we see the next rate cut? 

With the local economy sending mixed signals, it seems that many economists are finding it increasingly difficult to predict the RBA’s next move. In fact, they keep changing their forecasts. 

But it's not just our local factors in play. 

Overseas developments, particularly the political shifts in the United States with a newly elected president, could have ripple effects that impact our rates here in Australia. 

How will these global pressures influence the timing of any rate cuts? And what might it mean for property markets and investors looking to plan their next move? 

That’s what I discussed today with Dr Wilson, chief economist of My Housing Market, in today’s podcast. 

Takeaways

·       The RBA has held rates steady for the eighth consecutive month, but with economic signals unclear, economists are finding it increasingly difficult to forecast the next move. While many expect a rate cut next year, Dr. Andrew Wilson predicts it may not come until at least late 2025.

·       The RBA has indicated that inflation is unlikely to settle within its target range (2-3%) until 2026. With underlying inflation still above 3%, the RBA is expected to keep rates "restrictive" until inflation is sustainably under control.

·       Despite the cost-of-living pressures, the Australian economy remains resilient with a low unemployment rate, record-high workforce participation, and robust job growth. Retail sales are also holding strong, staying well above pre-COVID levels.

·       Political and economic shifts overseas, particularly in the U.S., could impact the RBA's future rate decisions, adding an extra layer of uncertainty for investors and homeowners trying to plan their next steps.

·       The latest ABS data shows a slight decrease in the total value of new housing loans in September, with a 0.3% drop to $30.2 billion. While investor loans fell by 1.0%, owner-occupier loans inched up by 0.1%. Investor loan values remain high in states with strong housing markets.

Links and Resources: 

Michael Yardney 

Get the team at Metropole to help build your personal Strategic Property Plan Click here and have a chat with us 

Get a bundle of free reports and eBooks – www.PodcastBonus.com.au  

Also, please subscribe to my new podcast Demographics Decoded with Simon Kuestenmacher – just look for  Demographics Decoded wherever you are listening to this podcast and subscribe so each week we can unveil the trends shaping your future. 

Shownotes plus more here: What’s Next for Interest Rates? Dr. Andrew Wilson’s Predictions for 2025

In today’s show, Brett Warren and I dissect Warren Buffett’s investing principles, especially as they could apply to the Melbourne property market.

We explore the value of long-term strategies, the importance of quality assets, and the need for solid cash flow.

We also discuss market cycles, how interest rates affect investments, and why it’s essential to have a safety margin.

Overall, we emphasise taking a strategic approach to property investment, aiming to build wealth steadily over time rather than chasing quick gains, discussing things like…

· Long-term wealth building requires patience and strategic planning.

· Market cycles are inevitable; timing the market is less important than “time in” the market.

· Quality assets are essential for long-term capital growth.

· Cash flow is crucial for sustaining investments during downturns.

· Investing in desirable locations can mitigate risks.

· A margin of safety protects investments from market fluctuations.

· Understanding demographics and trends is key to successful investing.

· Building a solid foundation takes time but pays off in the long run.

· Having a strategic plan is vital for navigating the property market. 

Links and Resources:

Michael Yardney, founder of Metropole

Brett Warren - National Director of Property at Metropole

Get the team at Metropole to help build your personal Strategic Property Plan Click here and have a chat with us

Get a bundle of free reports and eBooks – www.PodcastBonus.com.au

Also, please subscribe to my new podcast Demographics Decoded with Simon Kuestenmacher – just look for Demographics Decoded wherever you are listening to this podcast and subscribe so each week we can unveil the trends shaping your future.

Our housing markets have been remarkably resilient over the last year, despite high interest rates and even though the RBA didn’t drop interest rates this year, like many expected.

With inflation falling faster than expected, there is now the anticipation of rate drops early next year and it seems that the gloom that descended on Australian consumers 2 ½ years ago is finally showing signs of lifting.

What does this mean for our economy and housing markets?

That’s exactly what Pete Wargent and I discussed in today’s show.

We explore also the impact of government policies on property investment and analyze demographic trends affecting housing demand.

The conversation also touches on the challenges within the construction sector and the outlook for property investment in Australia, particularly in light of immigration and economic predictions for 2025.

Michael Yardney – Metropole Property Strategists

Metropole’s Strategic Property Plan – to help both beginning and experienced investors

Get a bundle of free reports and eBooks – www.PodcastBonus.com.au

Pete Wargent’s blog

Pete Wargent’s new book, The Buy Right Approach to Property Investing

Pete’s other book – The New Wealth Way

Get a bundle of free reports and eBooks – www.PodcastBonus.com.au

Also, please subscribe to my new podcast Demographics Decoded with Simon Kuestenmacher – just look for Demographics Decoded wherever you are listening to this podcast and subscribe so each week we can unveil the trends shaping your future.

Shownotes plus more here: Key Trends Shaping Australia’s Property Market in 2025 | Big Picture Podcast with Pete Wargent