Mortgage rates are pushing toward 7% today as hot inflation data raises the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at next week's meeting. In this update I break down today's PPI report, rising oil and diesel prices, and what the bond market is signaling for your mortgage rate right now.

📊 PPI inflation data comes in hot, pushing year over year producer prices to 5.4%
 🛢️ Oil tops $100 a barrel and diesel hits $6 a gallon, adding fresh inflation pressure
 🏦 CME FedWatch now shows a 65% chance the Federal Reserve hikes rates at next week's meeting
 📉 Bond market spreads point to mortgage rates pushing toward 7%, maybe higher
 💼 Jobless claims and GDP data show the labor market still holding steady
 🏠 What this means for homebuyers, homeowners, and anyone locking a rate this week

📖 Read the full breakdown on the blog: https://www.therateupdate.com/blog

0:00 Intro: Rates, Oil, and What the Fed Does Next
 2:15 Oil and Diesel Prices Push Inflation Higher
 4:00 Today's PPI Inflation Numbers Explained
 6:45 Fed Rate Hike Odds and the CME FedWatch Tool
 8:30 What This Means for Your Mortgage Payment

🏠 APPLY NOW — One Application, One Credit Pull, 30+ Lenders Compared
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📅 REQUEST A FREE CONSULTATION
 https://go.oncehub.com/solvitmortgagealan

🔍 FREE LE REVIEW — Already have a quote? Send me your Loan Estimate and I'll compare it against 30+ lenders
 https://www.therateupdate.com/loan-estimate-review

📉 JOIN RATE WATCH — FREE Rate Monitoring
 https://rw2.therateupdate.com/

Welcome to The Rate Update with Dan Frio.

This channel helps homebuyers, homeowners, real estate professionals, and anyone watching the housing market understand what is really happening with mortgage rates, housing, inflation, the bond market, the Federal Reserve, and the economy.

Here we break down the stories that impact your mortgage payment, your buying power, your refinance options, and your financial decisions.

WHAT YOU'LL FIND ON THIS CHANNEL
 🏠 Daily mortgage rate updates
 📉 Housing market news and home price trends
 📊 Inflation, CPI, and Federal Reserve analysis
 📈 10-Year Treasury and mortgage bond movement
 💰 Refinance and debt consolidation opportunities
 🏡 First-time homebuyer education
 🔁 Rate Watch mortgage monitoring tools
 🧮 Mortgage calculators and payment tools

WHERE TO START

🏡 Buying a home — FHA, VA, USDA, conventional, jumbo and down payment assistance
 https://www.therateupdate.com/first-time-home-buyer

🔁 Refinancing or accessing equity — cash-out, FHA Streamline, VA IRRRL, HELOC and reverse
 https://www.therateupdate.com/homeowner-options

🏢 Buying rentals — DSCR on 1 to 8 units, bank statement and no-income options
 https://www.therateupdate.com/investment-property-loans

🎁 Down payment assistance — 3.5% to 5%, including grants you never repay
 https://www.therateupdate.com/down-payment-assistance

TOP RESOURCES

📊 TRU Mortgage Command Center — Live Rate Dashboard
 https://command.therateupdate.com/

💳 TRU Debt Optimizer
 https://debtrelief.therateupdate.com/

🧮 Mortgage Calculators & Tools
 https://www.therateupdate.com/mortgage-calculators

✉️ Ask Dan a Question
 https://www.therateupdate.com/contact

FOLLOW THE RATE UPDATE

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRateUpdatewithDanFrio
 Instagram: https://instagram.com/therateupdate
 TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@therateupdate

If this helped you understand mortgage rates a little better, subscribe and turn on notifications so you catch the next update.

DISCLAIMER

Dan Frio | NMLS #246527 | PBT Bancorp | NMLS #257781 | Equal Housing Lender
 524 Main St, Hazard, KY 41701
 NMLS Consumer Access: https://www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org/

Dan Frio is a federally registered mortgage loan originator with PBT Bancorp. Mortgage products are originated by PBT Bancorp, NMLS #257781.

This channel is for education and commentary only. Topics may include mortgage rates, real estate, housing, stocks, bonds, cryptocurrency, inflation, the Federal Reserve, and financial markets.

All opinions are my own and do not represent PBT Bancorp or any financial institution I may be employed by or affiliated with.

Nothing on this channel is an offer to lend, a commitment to lend, or financial, legal, tax, or investment advice. Mortgage rates, terms, approvals and programs are subject to borrower qualifications, market conditions, underwriting approval, and change without notice. Not all borrowers will qualify.

#MortgageRates #FederalReserve #HousingMarket #Inflation #Homebuyers

Oil prices are falling right as this week's biggest inflation reports hit: PPI tomorrow, CPI Friday, and a Federal Reserve meeting next week that will decide what happens to your mortgage rate.

🛢️ Oil prices are dropping, and that ties directly into inflation and your mortgage rate 📊 PPI (producer inflation) drops tomorrow. Dan's forecast: hotter than consensus, driven by a base effect most people are missing 📈 CPI (consumer inflation) drops Friday, the number the Fed says will decide their next move 🏦 The Fed meets next week. Current odds sit at 62% heading in 💰 See what a move from 5.99% to 7.99% actually does to the payment on a $350,000 loan

Full numbers and Dan's forecast breakdown posted at the blog: https://www.therateupdate.com/blog

⏱ CHAPTERS 0:00 Intro: Oil Prices and This Week's Inflation Setup 1:20 Daily Bond Market Check 2:50 PPI and CPI Forecast: What Most People Miss 6:40 What It Means for Your Payment 8:30 Fed Meeting Next Week: The Odds

🏠 APPLY NOW — One Application, One Credit Pull, 30+ Lenders Compared https://257781.my1003app.com/246527/register

📅 REQUEST A FREE CONSULTATION https://go.oncehub.com/solvitmortgagealan

🔍 FREE LE REVIEW — Already have a quote? Send me your Loan Estimate and I'll compare it against 30+ lenders https://www.therateupdate.com/loan-estimate-review

📉 JOIN RATE WATCH — FREE Rate Monitoring https://rw2.therateupdate.com/

Welcome to The Rate Update with Dan Frio.

This channel helps homebuyers, homeowners, real estate professionals, and anyone watching the housing market understand what is really happening with mortgage rates, housing, inflation, the bond market, the Federal Reserve, and the economy.

Here we break down the stories that impact your mortgage payment, your buying power, your refinance options, and your financial decisions.

WHAT YOU'LL FIND ON THIS CHANNEL 🏠 Daily mortgage rate updates 📉 Housing market news and home price trends 📊 Inflation, CPI, and Federal Reserve analysis 📈 10-Year Treasury and mortgage bond movement 💰 Refinance and debt consolidation opportunities 🏡 First-time homebuyer education 🔁 Rate Watch mortgage monitoring tools 🧮 Mortgage calculators and payment tools

WHERE TO START

🏡 Buying a home — FHA, VA, USDA, conventional, jumbo and down payment assistance https://www.therateupdate.com/first-time-home-buyer

🔁 Refinancing or accessing equity — cash-out, FHA Streamline, VA IRRRL, HELOC and reverse https://www.therateupdate.com/homeowner-options

🏢 Buying rentals — DSCR on 1 to 8 units, bank statement and no-income options https://www.therateupdate.com/investment-property-loans

🎁 Down payment assistance — 3.5% to 5%, including grants you never repay https://www.therateupdate.com/down-payment-assistance

TOP RESOURCES

📊 TRU Mortgage Command Center — Live Rate Dashboard https://command.therateupdate.com/

💳 TRU Debt Optimizer https://debtrelief.therateupdate.com/

🧮 Mortgage Calculators & Tools https://www.therateupdate.com/mortgage-calculators

✉️ Ask Dan a Question https://www.therateupdate.com/contact

FOLLOW THE RATE UPDATE

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRateUpdatewithDanFrio Instagram: https://instagram.com/therateupdate TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@therateupdate

If this helped you understand mortgage rates a little better, subscribe and turn on notifications so you catch the next update.

DISCLAIMER

Dan Frio | NMLS #246527 | PBT Bancorp | NMLS #257781 | Equal Housing Lender 524 Main St, Hazard, KY 41701 NMLS Consumer Access: https://www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org/

Dan Frio is a federally registered mortgage loan originator with PBT Bancorp. Mortgage products are originated by PBT Bancorp, NMLS #257781.

This channel is for education and commentary only. Topics may include mortgage rates, real estate, housing, stocks, bonds, cryptocurrency, inflation, the Federal Reserve, and financial markets.

All opinions are my own and do not represent PBT Bancorp or any financial institution I may be employed by or affiliated with.

Nothing on this channel is an offer to lend, a commitment to lend, or financial, legal, tax, or investment advice. Mortgage rates, terms, approvals and programs are subject to borrower qualifications, market conditions, underwriting approval, and change without notice. Not all borrowers will qualify.

Mortgage rates are sitting at 6.9% and headed toward 7% this week as PPI, CPI, and the Fed's rate decision all hit. Dan Frio breaks down why this week's inflation data could push rates higher, what an 8-day-out Fed meeting with 60% hike odds means for you, and how oil pushing toward $100 a barrel factors in.

Full breakdown and rate tracking on the blog: https://www.therateupdate.com/blog

📊 THIS EPISODE 📉 Mortgage rates: currently 6.9%, on pace toward 7% 🏛️ Fed meets in 8 days: 60% odds of a rate hike 🔥 Dan's forecast: PPI, CPI, and core inflation all coming in hotter than Wall Street expects 🛢️ Oil up $2 to $93/barrel, nearing $100 on Brent: why that matters for your rate 💰 Payment math: what a 0.5% rate move costs on a $400,000 loan, and how much buying power you lose as rates climb 🏠 Why Dan is telling clients under contract to lock in now

⏱️ CHAPTERS 00:00 Mortgage Rate Forecast: Why This Week Isn't Good News 01:35 Fed Meeting in 8 Days: What This Week's Data Decides 04:20 Dan's Inflation Forecast vs Wall Street: PPI and CPI Preview 07:45 What Rising Rates Do to Your Payment and Buying Power 11:00 Oil Near $100 a Barrel: What It Means for Your Mortgage Rate

🏠 APPLY NOW — One Application, One Credit Pull, 30+ Lenders Compared https://257781.my1003app.com/246527/register

📅 REQUEST A FREE CONSULTATION https://go.oncehub.com/solvitmortgagealan

🔍 FREE LE REVIEW — Already have a quote? Send me your Loan Estimate and I'll compare it against 30+ lenders https://www.therateupdate.com/loan-estimate-review

📉 JOIN RATE WATCH — FREE Rate Monitoring https://rw2.therateupdate.com/

Welcome to The Rate Update with Dan Frio.

This channel helps homebuyers, homeowners, real estate professionals, and anyone watching the housing market understand what is really happening with mortgage rates, housing, inflation, the bond market, the Federal Reserve, and the economy.

Here we break down the stories that impact your mortgage payment, your buying power, your refinance options, and your financial decisions.

WHAT YOU'LL FIND ON THIS CHANNEL 🏠 Daily mortgage rate updates 📉 Housing market news and home price trends 📊 Inflation, CPI, and Federal Reserve analysis 📈 10-Year Treasury and mortgage bond movement 💰 Refinance and debt consolidation opportunities 🏡 First-time homebuyer education 🔁 Rate Watch mortgage monitoring tools 🧮 Mortgage calculators and payment tools

WHERE TO START

🏡 Buying a home — FHA, VA, USDA, conventional, jumbo and down payment assistance https://www.therateupdate.com/first-time-home-buyer

🔁 Refinancing or accessing equity — cash-out, FHA Streamline, VA IRRRL, HELOC and reverse https://www.therateupdate.com/homeowner-options

🏢 Buying rentals — DSCR on 1 to 8 units, bank statement and no-income options https://www.therateupdate.com/investment-property-loans

🎁 Down payment assistance — 3.5% to 5%, including grants you never repay https://www.therateupdate.com/down-payment-assistance

TOP RESOURCES

📊 TRU Mortgage Command Center — Live Rate Dashboard https://command.therateupdate.com/

💳 TRU Debt Optimizer https://debtrelief.therateupdate.com/

🧮 Mortgage Calculators & Tools https://www.therateupdate.com/mortgage-calculators

✉️ Ask Dan a Question https://www.therateupdate.com/contact

FOLLOW THE RATE UPDATE

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRateUpdatewithDanFrio Instagram: https://instagram.com/therateupdate TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@therateupdate

If this helped you understand mortgage rates a little better, subscribe and turn on notifications so you catch the next update.

DISCLAIMER

Dan Frio | NMLS #246527 | PBT Bancorp | NMLS #257781 | Equal Housing Lender 524 Main St, Hazard, KY 41701 NMLS Consumer Access: https://www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org/

Dan Frio is a federally registered mortgage loan originator with PBT Bancorp. Mortgage products are originated by PBT Bancorp, NMLS #257781.

This channel is for education and commentary only. Topics may include mortgage rates, real estate, housing, stocks, bonds, cryptocurrency, inflation, the Federal Reserve, and financial markets.

All opinions are my own and do not represent PBT Bancorp or any financial institution I may be employed by or affiliated with.

Nothing on this channel is an offer to lend, a commitment to lend, or financial, legal, tax, or investment advice. Mortgage rates, terms, approvals and programs are subject to borrower qualifications, market conditions, underwriting approval, and change without notice. Not all borrowers will qualify.

Mortgage rates today are reacting to a blowout jobs report that just shifted the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in 12 days, with CPI and PPI inflation data still to come next week. Housing market news and Federal Reserve analysis, explained in plain English by a licensed mortgage loan officer with 38 years in the business. No hype. Just real data and practical next steps.

🏠 APPLY NOW — One Application, 30+ Lenders Compete https://solvitmortgage.my1003app.com/2753203/register?lang=en

📅 REQUEST A FREE CONSULTATION https://go.oncehub.com/solvitmortgagealan

📉 JOIN RATE WATCH — FREE Rate Monitoring https://solvitmortgage.com/resources/todays-rates

Welcome to The Rate Update with Dan Frio.

This channel helps homebuyers, homeowners, real estate professionals, and anyone watching the housing market understand what is really happening with mortgage rates, housing, inflation, the bond market, the Federal Reserve, and the economy.

Here we break down the stories that impact your mortgage payment, your buying power, your refinance options, and your financial decisions.

IN TODAY'S UPDATE 📊 August jobs report jumps to 162,000, blowing past the 55,000 forecast, and last month's negative print gets revised to positive 20,000 🏦 Fed governor Christopher Waller says the rate decision comes down to this jobs report and next week's CPI and PPI inflation data 📉 Mortgage bonds gap down on the jobs news, pushing rates higher heading into the Fed's meeting in 12 days 📈 Average hourly earnings ease to 3.1% while unemployment holds steady at 4.1% 🛢️ Oil holds near $90 WTI and $95 Brent, still a key signal for where inflation goes next 🏠 What today's data means if you're under contract, buying soon, or waiting on the sidelines

Get the full breakdown on the blog: https://therateupdate.com/blog

WHAT YOU'LL FIND ON THIS CHANNEL 🏠 Daily mortgage rate updates 📉 Housing market news and home price trends 📊 Inflation, CPI, and Federal Reserve analysis 📈 10-Year Treasury and mortgage bond movement 💰 Refinance and debt consolidation opportunities 🏡 First-time homebuyer education 🔁 Rate Watch mortgage monitoring tools 🧮 Mortgage calculators and payment tools 🎥 Live market updates and housing commentary

Whether you are buying your first home, refinancing your current mortgage, comparing loan options, or just trying to understand why mortgage rates are moving today, this channel is built to help you make better decisions.

CHAPTERS 00:00 Why Today's Jobs Report Just Moved Mortgage Rates 01:30 Fed's Waller: It Comes Down to Two Reports 03:30 Breaking Down the August Jobs Numbers 05:45 Mortgage Bond Market Reaction and the Rate Gap 07:15 Next Week's Inflation Data: CPI and PPI Preview 09:00 Oil, Stocks, and What Dan Is Telling Clients Now

TOP RESOURCES 📊 TRU Mortgage Command Center — Live Rate Dashboard https://command.therateupdate.com/

🧮 Mortgage Calculators & Tools https://stan.store/TRU-Foundations

🔗 Guides, Calculators & Answers https://solvitmortgage.com/resources

✉️ Ask Dan a Question https://www.therateupdate.com/contact

FOLLOW THE RATE UPDATE YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRateUpdatewithDanFrio Instagram: https://instagram.com/therateupdate TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@therateupdate

If this helped you understand mortgage rates a little better, subscribe and turn on notifications so you catch the next rate update.

#MortgageRates #HousingMarket #Refinance #FirstTimeHomeBuyer #FederalReserve #JobsReport #Inflation

DISCLAIMER Dan Frio | NMLS #246527 | TRU Mortgage Team / PBT Bancorp | NMLS #257781 | Equal Housing Lender 524 Main St, Hazard, KY 41701 NMLS Consumer Access: https://www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org/

This channel is for education and commentary only. Topics may include mortgage rates, real estate, housing, stocks, bonds, cryptocurrency, inflation, the Federal Reserve, and financial markets.

All opinions are my own and do not represent PBT Bancorp, TRU Mortgage Team, or any financial institution I may be employed by or affiliated with.

Nothing on this channel is an offer to lend, a commitment to lend, or financial, legal, tax, or investment advice. Mortgage rates, terms, approvals, and programs are subject to borrower qualifications, market conditions, underwriting approval, and change without notice. Not all borrowers will qualify.

Mortgage rates jumped from 5.9% to 6.9% since the Iranian conflict began, and I break down the Fed data, jobs report, and oil prices driving the move, plus what it costs your purchasing power.

📊 Mortgage rates rose from 5.9% to 6.9% since the Iranian conflict began
💰 See the exact payment and purchasing power difference on a $434,000 home
📈 Breaking down GDP, jobs data, and national debt driving mortgage bond yields
🛢️ Oil prices, initial jobless claims, and today's stock market moves
🏦 Fed rate hike odds drop to 54% as Chairman Waller points to next week's CPI
🔧 Tools to track your rate, compare lenders, and get pre-approved

📖 Read the full breakdown on the blog: https://therateupdate.com/blog

🏠 APPLY NOW — One Application, 30+ Lenders Compete
https://solvitmortgage.my1003app.com/2753203/register?lang=en

📅 REQUEST A FREE CONSULTATION
https://go.oncehub.com/solvitmortgagealan

📉 JOIN RATE WATCH — FREE Rate Monitoring
https://solvitmortgage.com/resources/todays-rates

Welcome to The Rate Update with Dan Frio.

This channel helps homebuyers, homeowners, real estate professionals, and anyone watching the housing market understand what is really happening with mortgage rates, housing, inflation, the bond market, the Federal Reserve, and the economy.

Here we break down the stories that impact your mortgage payment, your buying power, your refinance options, and your financial decisions.

WHAT YOU'LL FIND ON THIS CHANNEL
🏠 Daily mortgage rate updates
📉 Housing market news and home price trends
📊 Inflation, CPI, and Federal Reserve analysis
📈 10-Year Treasury and mortgage bond movement
💰 Refinance and debt consolidation opportunities
🏡 First-time homebuyer education
🔁 Rate Watch mortgage monitoring tools
🧮 Mortgage calculators and payment tools
🎥 Live market updates and housing commentary

Whether you are buying your first home, refinancing your current mortgage, comparing loan options, or just trying to understand why mortgage rates are moving today, this channel is built to help you make better decisions.

CHAPTERS
00:00 Why Mortgage Rates Jumped Without a Fed Meeting
01:45 The Mortgage Bond Chart Dan Watches Every Day
03:15 Your Payment and Purchasing Power: The Real Numbers
05:30 What's Really Driving Rates Higher: GDP, Jobs, and Debt
07:30 Today's Data, Fed Odds, and Tools to Track Your Rate

TOP RESOURCES
📊 TRU Mortgage Command Center — Live Rate Dashboard
https://command.therateupdate.com/

🧮 Mortgage Calculators & Tools
https://stan.store/TRU-Foundations

🔗 Guides, Calculators & Answers
https://solvitmortgage.com/resources

✉️ Ask Dan a Question
https://www.therateupdate.com/contact

FOLLOW THE RATE UPDATE
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRateUpdatewithDanFrio
Instagram: https://instagram.com/therateupdate
TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@therateupdate

If this helped you understand mortgage rates a little better, subscribe and turn on notifications so you catch the next rate update.

#MortgageRates #HousingMarket #Refinance #FirstTimeHomeBuyer #FederalReserve

DISCLAIMER
Dan Frio | NMLS 
#246527 | TRU Mortgage Team / PBT Bancorp | NMLS 
#257781 | Equal Housing Lender
524 Main St, Hazard, KY 41701
NMLS Consumer Access: https://www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org/

This channel is for education and commentary only. Topics may include mortgage rates, real estate, housing, stocks, bonds, cryptocurrency, inflation, the Federal Reserve, and financial markets.

All opinions are my own and do not represent PBT Bancorp, TRU Mortgage Team, or any financial institution I may be employed by or affiliated with.

Nothing on this channel is an offer to lend, a commitment to lend, or financial, legal, tax, or investment advice. Mortgage rates, terms, approvals, and programs are subject to borrower qualifications, market conditions, underwriting approval, and change without notice. Not all borrowers will qualify.

Mortgage rates jumped toward 7% this week while a weak jobs report just moved the bond market. I break down why oil prices, inflation, and today's Fed data are pushing your rate around, plus how much house you can actually afford right now.

📉 Why mortgage rates are pushing back toward 7% 🏦 How the Federal Reserve actually sets your rate (it's not what most people think) 🛢️ How oil prices drive inflation, and inflation drives your mortgage rate 📊 The jobs report data that just made the bond market jump 🏠 How much house you can afford at 7% versus 3.5%, and why it's a $152,000 difference 💰 Why $35 trillion in homeowner equity is keeping this market flat, not crashing

🏠 APPLY NOW — One Application, 30+ Lenders Compete https://solvitmortgage.my1003app.com/2753203/register?lang=en

📅 REQUEST A FREE CONSULTATION https://go.oncehub.com/solvitmortgagealan

📉 JOIN RATE WATCH — FREE Rate Monitoring https://solvitmortgage.com/resources/todays-rates

Welcome to The Rate Update with Dan Frio.

This channel helps homebuyers, homeowners, real estate professionals, and anyone watching the housing market understand what is really happening with mortgage rates, housing, inflation, the bond market, the Federal Reserve, and the economy.

Here we break down the stories that impact your mortgage payment, your buying power, your refinance options, and your financial decisions.

WHAT YOU'LL FIND ON THIS CHANNEL 🏠 Daily mortgage rate updates 📉 Housing market news and home price trends 📊 Inflation, CPI, and Federal Reserve analysis 📈 10-Year Treasury and mortgage bond movement 💰 Refinance and debt consolidation opportunities 🏡 First-time homebuyer education 🔁 Rate Watch mortgage monitoring tools 🧮 Mortgage calculators and payment tools 🎥 Live market updates and housing commentary

Whether you are buying your first home, refinancing your current mortgage, comparing loan options, or just trying to understand why mortgage rates are moving today, this channel is built to help you make better decisions.

CHAPTERS 00:00 Intro: Mortgage Rates Near 7% and $35 Trillion in Equity 01:30 How the Federal Reserve Actually Sets Your Rate 03:15 Oil Prices, Inflation, and Today's Market Reaction 05:00 The Jobs Report That Just Moved the Bond Market 06:45 How Much House You Can Afford at 7% (And Why the Market Is Staying Flat)

TOP RESOURCES 📊 TRU Mortgage Command Center — Live Rate Dashboard https://command.therateupdate.com/

🧮 Mortgage Calculators & Tools https://stan.store/TRU-Foundations

🔗 Guides, Calculators & Answers https://solvitmortgage.com/resources

✉️ Ask Dan a Question https://www.therateupdate.com/contact

FOLLOW THE RATE UPDATE YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRateUpdatewithDanFrio Instagram: https://instagram.com/therateupdate TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@therateupdate

If this helped you understand mortgage rates a little better, subscribe and turn on notifications so you catch the next rate update.

#MortgageRates #HousingMarket #Refinance #FirstTimeHomeBuyer #FederalReserve

DISCLAIMER Dan Frio | NMLS #246527 | TRU Mortgage Team / PBT Bancorp | NMLS #257781 | Equal Housing Lender 524 Main St, Hazard, KY 41701 NMLS Consumer Access: https://www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org/

This channel is for education and commentary only. Topics may include mortgage rates, real estate, housing, stocks, bonds, cryptocurrency, inflation, the Federal Reserve, and financial markets.

All opinions are my own and do not represent PBT Bancorp, TRU Mortgage Team, or any financial institution I may be employed by or affiliated with.

Nothing on this channel is an offer to lend, a commitment to lend, or financial, legal, tax, or investment advice. Mortgage rates, terms, approvals, and programs are subject to borrower qualifications, market conditions, underwriting approval, and change without notice. Not all borrowers will qualify.

Mortgage rates are climbing toward 7%, not the 5.99% many expected. I break down why: oil prices, global bond yields, AI debt, and the Fed's next move, plus what it means for your monthly payment.

📉 Why falling bond prices mean rising mortgage rates
 🛢️ Oil above $90 a barrel and why that's inflationary
 🌍 Global bond yields from Australia to the UK to Japan, and how they pull on your rate
 🤖 How AI companies issuing their own bonds are adding to the debt pushing rates up
 🏦 The Fed meets in 15 days, with a 65% chance of another rate hike
 💵 What this actually costs you: more per month on a $300K, $400K, or $500K home

Get the full breakdown and charts on the blog: therateupdate.com/blog

⏱️ Chapters
 0:00 Intro: Why Rates Are Near 7% Instead of 5.99%
 1:20 Bond Prices, Yields, and What Red Numbers Mean
 3:15 Global Debt and the AI Bond Boom
 6:00 What Rising Rates Do to Your Payment
 8:00 Fed Meeting in 15 Days: What's Next

Want to lock in before rates move again? Get pre-approved: command.therateupdate.com
 Book a free consultation with me: [Calendly link]
 Have questions? Reach out here: therateupdate.com/contact

🔧 Resources mentioned in this video:
 RateWatch (track your rate and payment for free): rw2.therateupdate.com
 DIY Mortgage tool: command.therateupdate.com
 TRU Debt Optimizer: debtrelief.therateupdate.com

📱 Follow me for daily rate updates: YouTube | Instagram | TikTok

Dan Frio NMLS #246527 | TRU Mortgage Team, PBT Bancorp NMLS #257781. Equal Housing Opportunity. This video is for informational purposes only and does not guarantee loan approval or specific rates.

#MortgageRates #Homebuyers #Realtors #FederalReserve #TenYearTreasury #HousingMarket #RateWatch

Mortgage rates today are under pressure after Brent crude broke $90 a barrel, and the Federal Reserve just put a rate HIKE back on the table. Here is what moved, what it costs, and what I am telling my clients to do about it.

Updated for Monday, August 31, 2026 — Mortgage bonds opened down 15 on oil and Middle East conflict, pushing mortgage rates toward 6.85% and possibly 7%. PCE inflation sits at 3.7% against the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with 54% of the basket running over 3% versus 32% before the pandemic. Inflation has now been above target for 64 straight months. Meanwhile 23,000 jobs were lost in July and May–June revisions erased another 103,000 — and the Fed said plainly it is focused on inflation, not jobs.

Here is the part almost nobody explains to homebuyers: the Federal Reserve can raise rates and your mortgage rate can still go down. The Fed sets short-term interbank lending. Mortgage rates track the 10-Year Treasury. If bond investors believe a hike will actually control inflation, long-term yields can fall even while the funds rate rises. That mechanism is walked through at 06:40.

What I am telling clients: if you are under contract, lock your mortgage rate. I cannot price around another drone strike. If you are not under contract yet, watch two things — oil and inflation. Oil back under $70 and holding is when the Federal Reserve gets room to cut and mortgage rates can finally come down. Oil at $120 is a very different conversation for the housing market.

CHAPTERS
00:00 Oil Just Broke $90 — Here's Why That Hits Your Rate
00:39 The Chart I Check Every Morning Before Quoting a Rate
01:21 What the Federal Reserve Actually Watches
01:46 Inflation at 3.7% When the Target Is 2%
01:59 The Data This Week That Can Move Mortgage Rates
02:40 103,000 Jobs Gone — And the Fed Says It Doesn't Care
04:06 The Jackson Hole Speech, Translated
06:20 The Odds of a Hike Just Changed
06:40 Why a Fed Hike Doesn't Have to Raise Your Mortgage Rate
08:31 Lock or Float: What I'm Telling Clients Right Now
10:04 Rate Watch, Loan Estimate Review and DIY Mortgage
11:16 What to Watch Next

NEXT STEPS
🏠 Get Pre-Approved → https://257781.my1003app.com/246527/register
📅 FREE CONSULTATION | Book a Call → https://go.oncehub.com/solvitmortgagealan
✉️ Ask Dan → https://www.therateupdate.com/contact

TOP RESOURCES
📉 Rate Watch — Free Mortgage Rate & Payment Monitoring → https://rw2.therateupdate.com/
🏠 TRU Mortgage Command Center — Live Rate Dashboard → https://command.therateupdate.com/
💳 TRU Debt Optimizer → https://debtrelief.therateupdate.com/
🧮 Mortgage Calculators & Tools → https://stan.store/TRU-Foundations
🔗 Guides, Calculators & Answers → https://solvitmortgage.com/resources

Welcome to The Rate Update with Dan Frio — mortgage rates, housing market data, and straight answers for homebuyers, homeowners and Realtors, from a licensed mortgage loan officer with 38 years in the business.
- Daily mortgage rate updates and what actually drives them
- Housing market news and home price trends
- Inflation, CPI and Federal Reserve analysis
- 10-Year Treasury and mortgage bond movement
- First-time homebuyer education and refinance breakdowns
- FHA, VA, conventional, HomeReady and reverse mortgages

Whether you are buying your first home, refinancing your current mortgage, comparing loan options, or just trying to understand why mortgage rates are moving today, this channel is built to help you make a better decision.

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Dan Frio | NMLS #246527 | TRU Mortgage Team / PBT Bancorp | NMLS #257781 | Equal Housing Lender
524 Main St, Hazard, KY 41701
NMLS Consumer Access: https://www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org/

This channel is for education and commentary only. All opinions are my own and do not represent PBT Bancorp, TRU Mortgage Team, or any financial institution I may be employed by or affiliated with. Nothing here is an offer to lend, a commitment to lend, or financial, legal, tax, or investment advice. Mortgage rates, terms, approvals and programs are subject to borrower qualifications, market conditions, underwriting approval, and change without notice. Not all borrowers will qualify.

Mortgage rates today are moving as Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh speaks live from Jackson Hole. In this episode I explain what Jackson Hole is, why Warsh's comments move mortgage rates, and what this week's inflation, jobs, and GDP data mean for homebuyers, homeowners, and realtors.

In this episode:
- What Jackson Hole is and why Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's speech can move your mortgage rate today
- This week's data recap: consumer confidence, new home sales, PCE inflation, the GDP revision, and jobless claims
- Why oil prices and the Iran conflict are directly tied to mortgage rate swings
- What's coming next week: JOLTS job openings, ADP payrolls, jobless claims, and the government jobs report
- Fed meeting odds for the next meeting in 19 days, plus the rate forecast into next year
- The two things I'm telling homebuyers and realtors to watch right now

More rate breakdowns and housing market updates on the blog: https://solvitmortgage.com/resources

CHAPTERS
0:00 What Is Jackson Hole and Why It Moves Mortgage Rates
1:13 Today's Rate Chart and Market Snapshot
2:44 This Week's Economic Data: Inflation, GDP, Jobless Claims
4:05 Next Week's Calendar: Jobs Report, JOLTS, ADP Payrolls
5:18 Fed Meeting Odds, Oil, and What Homebuyers and Realtors Should Do Now

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If this helped you understand what's happening with mortgage rates, subscribe and turn on notifications so you catch the next update.

#MortgageRates #JacksonHole #FederalReserve #HousingMarket #Refinance

DISCLAIMER
Dan Frio | NMLS #246527 | TRU Mortgage Team / PBT Bancorp | NMLS #257781 | Equal Housing Lender
524 Main St, Hazard, KY 41701
NMLS Consumer Access: https://www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org/

This channel is for education and commentary only. Topics may include mortgage rates, real estate, housing, stocks, bonds, cryptocurrency, inflation, the Federal Reserve, and financial markets.

All opinions are my own and do not represent PBT Bancorp, TRU Mortgage Team, or any financial institution I may be employed by or affiliated with.

Nothing on this channel is an offer to lend, a commitment to lend, or financial, legal, tax, or investment advice. Mortgage rates, terms, approvals, and programs are subject to borrower qualifications, market conditions, underwriting approval, and change without notice. Not all borrowers will qualify.

Mortgage rates are reacting this week to a surprising jobs report, sticky inflation data, and the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole meeting. In this video I break down what jobless claims, PCE inflation, and rising oil prices mean for mortgage rates, home affordability, and what the Fed does next. 

Homebuyers, homeowners, and Realtors, this is the week's mortgage rate update. Here's what I cover: 

• Why a stronger than expected jobs report is actually bad news for mortgage rates • How bond prices and yields actually work, explained simply • The Fed's two big concerns right now: inflation still at 3.7% and unemployment near full employment • Jobless claims and continued claims data, and what it tells us about the labor market • Why oil sitting in the 80s is keeping inflation elevated, and what has to happen for rates to drop • How Fed rate cut expectations have completely flipped ahead of Jackson Hole • What I'm telling my own clients right now about locking in 

Read more mortgage rate breakdowns on my blog: https://therateupdate.com/blog 

CHAPTERS 0:00 Jobs Report Shakes Up Mortgage Rate Expectations 1:20 How Bond Prices and Yields Actually Work 3:45 The Fed's Two Mandates: Inflation and Jobs 6:10 Jackson Hole and This Week's Jobless Claims 8:40 Oil Prices, Earnings, and What the Fed Does Next 

🏠 Ready to Buy or Refinance? Get Pre-Approved https://257781.my1003app.com/246527/register 

📅 Want to Talk Through Your Options? Schedule a Consultation https://calendly.com/d/cq29-7xd-x3v/the-frio-team?month=2025-05 

✉️ Have Questions? Contact / Ask Dan https://www.therateupdate.com/contact 

TOP RESOURCES 📉 Track Mortgage Rates Automatically https://rw2.therateupdate.com/ 

🏠 TRU Mortgage Command Center https://command.therateupdate.com/ 

💳 TRU Debt Optimizer https://debtrelief.therateupdate.com/ 

🧮 Mortgage Calculators & Tools https://stan.store/TRU-Foundations 

FOLLOW THE RATE UPDATE YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRateUpdatewithDanFrio Instagram: https://instagram.com/therateupdate TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@therateupdate 

DISCLAIMER Dan Frio is a licensed mortgage loan officer in all 50 states and Puerto Rico. NMLS #246527 | TRU Mortgage Team / PBT Bancorp NMLS #257781 | Equal Housing Lender. 

This channel is for education and commentary only. Topics may include mortgage rates, real estate, housing, stocks, bonds, cryptocurrency, inflation, the Federal Reserve, and financial markets. 

All opinions are my own and do not represent PBT Bancorp, TRU Mortgage Team, or any financial institution I may be employed by or affiliated with. 

Nothing on this channel is an offer to lend, a commitment to lend, financial, legal, tax, or investment advice. Mortgage rates, terms, approvals, and programs are subject to borrower qualifications, market conditions, underwriting approval, and change without notice. Not all borrowers will qualify. 

#MortgageRates #JobsReport #FederalReserve #JacksonHole #Inflation #Homebuyers #Realtors #HousingMarket #OilPrices #TheRateUpdate