Tad Smith joins Joe Burnett to discuss why he still favors bitcoin over gold, how AI is reshaping software, labor, and opportunity, and why he sees the current market setup as increasingly attractive for bitcoin and Strategy. They also dig into Digital Credit, the long-term potential of Strategy’s preferred products, the quantum cloud over bitcoin, and Tad’s new role leading Candy Digital.

Timestamps:

0:00 Intro

1:28 What First Clicked for Tad on Bitcoin

4:11 Gold vs. Bitcoin Right Now

6:51 Current Market Dynamics, Oil, and Volatility

8:46 Why AI Pressures Traditional Software

10:53 Why Tad Still Likes Palantir

13:03 The Fed, Inflation, and Global Liquidity

17:11 Weakening Labor Markets and Why More Printing Could Follow

19:49 Is AI Replacing White-Collar Work?

22:57 Tad’s Advice for Students and Young Workers

26:14 AI, Abundance, and Choosing Optimism

29:51 Where We Are in the Bitcoin Cycle

32:37 Does Bitcoin Have a Real Floor?

35:46 What Could Trigger Bitcoin’s Next Move Higher

38:52 Morgan Stanley, Quantum Risk, and Clearing the Clouds

46:56 Strategy, STRC, STRK, and Amplified Bitcoin

51:49 Is Stretch Strategy’s iPhone Product?

55:21 Tad on Candy Digital and Digital Collectibles

57:42 Final Thoughts on Fear, Resilience, and Happiness

Market sentiment is weak, volatility is elevated, and capital has nowhere to hide. In this episode, Adrian Morris explains why sentiment drives all markets, how it shapes bitcoin’s price, and what it takes to navigate and withstand the current environment.Read Adrian's research report here: https://tnorth.com/research/sentiment-as-substrate/Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction

00:33 Welcoming Adrian

01:08 Current market conditions and volatility

03:31 Energy, macro pressure, and bitcoin outlook

04:04 Why markets are driven by sentiment

07:54 mNAV, valuation, and sentiment shifts

13:50 The most controversial idea in the paper

15:37 Is valuation ever objective?

20:17 Bitcoin narratives vs market reality

20:35 Traditional finance misses the “first cause”

24:55 Do fundamentals matter or not?

28:46 The “blind ledger” thought experiment

31:23 Warren Buffett and valuation frameworks

34:54 What is reflexivity in markets?

36:46 Leverage, volatility, and bitcoin

39:00 Paper bitcoin and market structure

42:30 Fixed supply and bitcoin valuation

46:15 Efficient market hypothesis critique

49:45 Are free markets truly efficient?

52:13 Why most investors underperform

55:41 Passive investing and market risk

59:32 Digital credit and market perception

1:03:23 Final thoughts on sentiment and pricing

1:04:49 Weathering volatility as an investor

Bitcoin is holding firm as equities, gold, and silver decline amid rising geopolitical tension, signaling a potential shift in how the asset behaves during global stress. We break down the macro forces driving markets, the rise of digital credit as a Bitcoin demand engine, and how AI is accelerating a new financial paradigm.

Timestamps:

00:00 – Intro and Bitcoin’s move from $90K to ~$70K

03:30 – Key levels, market structure, and has the bottom formed

04:00 – Is Bitcoin broken? The 5-year CAGR debate

07:00 – Why Bitcoin performance depends on timeframe

08:20 – Bitcoin vs war: why it’s holding up

12:00 – Liquidity, narratives, and decoupling from other assets

17:30 – Rising interest rates, oil, and macro pressures

22:50 – Oil spikes and recession risk

28:10 – Digital credit finds product-market fit

32:30 – The Bitcoin demand flywheel and scaling capital

33:20 – Time horizons, volatility, and investor behavior

35:30 – Why digital credit unlocks institutional adoption

37:45 – Track record building during volatility

40:20 – Gold and silver crash: what’s happening

43:30 – Long-term outlook for gold vs Bitcoin

46:20 – AI acceleration and economic impact

49:30 – Rising uncertainty and the future of work

52:00 – AI, money printing, and Bitcoin’s role

54:00 – Final thoughts and where to follow Joe

Digital credit and bitcoin-backed money are emerging as a new foundation for global finance, offering yield, transparency, and programmability. In this episode, Parker from APYX explains how this system works, why it is gaining traction, and how it could drive the next wave of bitcoin adoption.

Timestamps:

0:00 Intro

0:33 What is digital money and digital credit

3:01 Parker’s background: from Austrian economics to bitcoin

6:18 Early career, Kraken, and DeFi experience

7:07 Why bitcoin-backed stablecoins matter

10:01 Where yield comes from in digital credit and money

11:27 What APYX is and how it works

15:44 DeFi yield demand and carry trades explained

19:01 Why capital hasn’t fully moved from Athena to APYX

21:38 October crash and Ethena’s role

23:07 Stablecoin depegs and market mechanics

25:10 How APYX maintains its peg

27:46 Floating vs hard pegs (STRC comparison)

28:23 Luna comparison and key differences

31:07 Why digital credit must scale for digital money

33:16 Private credit vs digital credit

35:27 Blockfills bankruptcy and market stress

37:04 Impact of bitcoin ETFs on market structure

40:11 Offshore vs onshore price discovery

41:38 Why bitcoin is trading around $70K

46:31 Derivatives vs spot market imbalance

47:11 Will digital credit drive bitcoin demand

50:13 Why yield products unlock new bitcoin demand

51:39 Where to learn more about APYX

Joe Burnett sits down with Conner Brown of the Bitcoin Policy Institute to discuss the Basel Committee’s 1,250% bitcoin risk weighting and why many view it as a major policy mistake limiting bank adoption. They also explore digital credit, the future of bitcoin in the financial system, and why AI agents may ultimately prefer bitcoin as money.

Timestamps:

0:00 Intro

0:49 The Basel 1,250% mistake explained

7:26 How punitive Basel’s bitcoin risk weighting is in practice

12:12 Why Basel treats gold and bitcoin so differently

15:01 What happens if the U.S. changes the rules for banks

20:06 Why America should lead in bitcoin financial products

22:07 Digital credit and why Connor is bullish on it

26:20 Why bitcoin needs to be repackaged for different users

29:10 What money AI agents prefer

33:35 What properties AI agents want in money

37:49 Why bitcoin could give AI agents a capability boost

41:32 How fast AI is advancing

48:20 AI, job displacement, and the reorganization of society

54:51 Key bitcoin policy issues to watch in Washington

1:01:14 Where to follow Connor and Bitcoin Policy Institute

AI is accelerating productivity, compressing margins, and destabilizing labor markets in ways few are tracking closely. We examine the silent depression, liquidity risks, and why a recession could act as a margin call on the U.S. government and ignite the next bitcoin cycle.

Timestamps:

00:00 – AI Is Already Causing Deflation

02:12 – Strange Market Rotation Since November

04:45 – AI Quietly Hitting White-Collar Jobs

06:23 – Software Publishing Down 3.8%

08:21 – Is This Just Getting Started?

10:15 – The Silent Depression Explained

12:10 – Personal Income vs Money Supply Collapse

15:40 – 25 Years of Economic Deterioration

19:49 – Capital vs Labor: The Great Divide

22:01 – Will AI Trigger UBI?

24:00 – Is Socialism Inevitable?

28:50 – Bitcoin vs Bonds: What to Own Now

31:00 – Could Bitcoin Go Four Digits?

34:30 – The Math of a $5 Trillion Deficit

37:15 – Deflation Is the Most Bullish Case for Bitcoin

39:48 – What Triggers “The Big Print”?

44:18 – ISM PMI: Early Cycle or False Signal?

50:28 – M2 Liquidity Is Quietly Drying Up

53:26 – Deaths of Despair Are 3x Great Depression

58:30 – Why Political Volatility Is Coming

1:01:05 – Is There Any Optimistic Outcome?

1:04:00 – How America Fixes This

1:06:52 – Produce More Than You Consume

Rising global uncertainty, fiscal instability, and shifting monetary regimes are reshaping capital allocation across every major asset class. In this conversation, Joe Burnett and Sam Callahan explain why these forces ultimately strengthen the long-term case for bitcoin as the world’s most reliable monetary asset.

Timestamps:

0:00 The price of uncertainty is rising

0:43 Why global uncertainty is bullish for bitcoin

3:11 Ray Dalio, shifting world order, and safe haven rotation

5:23 When did uncertainty actually begin accelerating?

8:20 Fed cuts, rising term premium, and why long yields stay high

12:08 Is this a temporary phase or long-term uncertainty?

16:19 Can long-term treasury yields fall from here?

20:35 Why bonds are a trade, not long-term savings

22:00 The real AI trade: bitcoin

25:26 Gold surge explained through rising uncertainty

28:26 Who is actually buying gold right now?

31:35 Divergence #3: bitcoin vs global liquidity

36:47 Exchange insolvency rumors and contagion risk

39:01 Will bitcoin snap back to liquidity trends?

42:31 Has bitcoin failed as a safe haven?

47:18 Why bitcoin is better technology than gold

48:36 How bad is current bitcoin market sentiment really?

53:32 Why sentiment feels worse than past cycles

57:28 Institutional adoption still early

59:00 Sovereign wealth funds and institutional accumulation

1:03:00 Fiat debasement, fiscal math, and the bitcoin thesis

Root returns to break down where bitcoin stands in the current cycle, using on-chain data, macro signals, and historical patterns to assess whether a bottom is forming. This conversation explores diminishing returns, institutional adoption, long-term holder sell pressure, and why the next major bull market could emerge once scarcity and demand realign.

Timestamps:

00:00 Root returns: where bitcoin is in the cycle

00:44 Four-year cycle still “right on track”

03:49 Spiral chart: where bottoms land in prior cycles

05:10 Breaking the bull trend in late 2025

09:42 What’s driving the current bear market

15:51 Short-term holder bands: mezzanine vs floor

18:50 Realized price at ~$55k and downside scenarios

20:42 Halving cycle vs business cycle (PMI)

24:22 Do PMI and other narratives actually predict price?

31:56 Gold at extreme RSI and why bitcoin behaves differently

37:54 OG holder sell pressure and the “bitcoin IPO phase”

41:02 On-chain value map: undervalued vs heavily undervalued

42:21 Diminishing returns, diminishing drawdowns, and future upside

51:51 Stock-to-flow, power law, and which models matter

54:39 What would break the bitcoin thesis? Hyperbitcoinization timeline

Bitcoin’s volatility is shaking out weak hands and setting the stage for a stronger market structure. In this conversation with CJ from Strategy, we break down why volatility is expected, how bitcoin treasury companies and digital credit are reshaping capital markets, and where institutional adoption goes next. If you want to understand what’s really happening beneath the price action, this episode connects the dots.

00:00 Why bitcoin’s volatility is a feature, not a bug

08:11 Are bitcoin cycles still real or just liquidity driven

14:12 Why billion-dollar buys barely move the bitcoin price

18:00 Digital credit and the new bitcoin capital markets

24:10 From stablecoins to yield-bearing bitcoin money

27:05 The infinitely scalable bitcoin treasury model

31:30 Where digital credit yields go from here

34:00 Could a gold treasury company ever work

39:45 Why bitcoin volatility will keep compressing

43:25 Quantum fears and securing bitcoin for decades

49:15 Biggest myths about bitcoin treasury companies

55:10 Why critics make bitcoin stronger

In this conversation, Joe Burnett sits down with Mark Valek of Incrementum to unpack why today’s debt-based monetary system remains structurally fragile and how it may ultimately be recapitalized. They explore gold and bitcoin as monetary anchors, central bank behavior, inflationary reset scenarios, and why gold has recently outperformed bitcoin despite their shared role as sound money assets.

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction and the claim that the current monetary system is unsustainable

02:00 From gold-backed money to debt-based money and the exponential debt problem

05:20 Can the system break, or can fiat last longer than expected?

08:20 How fiat systems may be recapitalized through gold and sound assets

10:48 Do central bankers still understand gold and sound money?

13:30 Long-term outlook: deficits, inflation, and social consequences

20:14 How far gold and bitcoin could run in a recapitalization scenario

24:34 Who is buying gold and why the gold market regime has changed

29:00 Total gold market size and liquidity considerations

32:26 Why bitcoin has lagged gold and how to interpret the divergence

37:34 Closing thoughts and where to find Mark Valek’s work