The Mustard Seed Bitcoin Podcast

Sam Baker, research analyst at River, joins me to explain why Bitcoin could reach $840,000 within the next three to five years. We discuss the institutional adoption and capital inflows behind River’s model, the case for a 10% Bitcoin allocation, why each dollar invested can add several dollars to Bitcoin’s market cap, custody considerations, the CLARITY Act, AI’s role in accelerating macro trends, and why businesses are currently driving Bitcoin demand.

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction

00:41 The case for $840,000 Bitcoin

06:55 Which investors are adopting Bitcoin?

09:22 Why $1 of buying can add more than $1 to market cap

14:00 The case for a 10% Bitcoin allocation

20:43 What is Bitcoin?

23:04 How much Bitcoin is too much?

25:25 What new Bitcoin investors should know

26:28 Exchange custody vs. self-custody

29:02 What would confirm the $840,000 thesis?

30:42 The CLARITY Act

32:09 Would $840,000 Bitcoin still be early?

36:05 How AI could accelerate Bitcoin adoption

38:27 Businesses are driving Bitcoin demand

41:09 Closing thoughts

Matt Crosby joins me to break down what the data is saying about Bitcoin today and whether the bear-market bottom is already behind us.

We discuss Bitcoin’s price and time capitulation, MVRV and on-chain valuation, long-term versus short-term holders, diminishing volatility, global M2 and DXY, the four-year cycle, and the signals Matt believes point toward a new phase of the Bitcoin market.

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

00:38 Matt Crosby’s background and Look Into Bitcoin

02:30 How predictive is on-chain data?

08:28 Why Matt uses percentile-based Bitcoin valuation

14:24 Is the Bitcoin bottom in?

19:16 Why Bitcoin bear markets happen

24:25 Price capitulation vs. time capitulation

31:39 Bitcoin’s upside as volatility declines

36:20 Rethinking long-term vs. short-term holders

43:00 Is Bitcoin’s four-year cycle real?

49:00 Presidential cycles, seasonality and market myths

52:00 Long-term holder conviction and the next bull market

55:08 Where to follow Matt

Luke Broyles joins me to explain why he believes Bitcoin could eventually reach $20 million per coin. We discuss the accelerating pace of technology, the growth of U.S. debt, AI, monetary debasement, and why Luke thinks Bitcoin sits at the intersection of these long-term trends. We also explore why calling Bitcoin "digital gold" may dramatically undersell its potential and why most Bitcoin price targets could be far too low. This is a long-term conversation about where Bitcoin, technology, and the global financial system may be heading.

Timestamps:

0:00 Introduction

1:03 Luke Broyles' Bitcoin thesis

5:49 Why the future will change faster than the past

10:21 The three pillars of Luke's worldview

11:40 AI, Starship, robotics and accelerating technology

19:09 Why technological progress keeps accelerating

22:14 Is the global debt market a Ponzi scheme?

25:24 Where U.S. government debt is headed

27:34 What the debt actually means for taxpayers

31:09 Treasury buybacks and Bitcoin

34:12 Could the average house eventually cost $40 million?

37:03 The collision between technology and debt

39:37 Why technology demonetizes everything

41:08 Bitcoin and the significance of 21 million

42:20 How technological deflation worsens the debt problem

43:21 Why the AI bull case could hurt AI stocks

47:06 Why Bitcoin could reach $20 million

49:54 Bitcoin versus gold

53:18 $5M, $10M and $100M Bitcoin

55:18 Why "digital gold" undersells Bitcoin

56:32 Will AI take everyone's jobs?

58:34 Why Bitcoin could be far bigger than gold

1:01:27 Bitcoin's next 50 years

1:02:46 Mining the final Bitcoin

1:04:32 Could Bitcoin still fail?

1:06:55 Is Bitcoin actually the lower-risk asset?

1:08:39 Why everyone should get off zero

1:10:34 Closing thoughts

Sminston With joins me to explain why Bitcoin’s power law has remained remarkably consistent and how PMI, liquidity, and AI may help explain Bitcoin’s current cycle. We also discuss what could invalidate the power law, the possibility of a $200K-$300K Bitcoin supercycle, and why accumulating 1 BTC is becoming increasingly difficult.

Timestamps:

0:00 Sminston’s background and journey to Bitcoin

5:30 Why power laws matter for Bitcoin

12:01 Why the power law may be more robust than stock-to-flow

16:14 Why Bitcoin follows a power law

19:45 PMI, business cycles, and Bitcoin volatility

24:19 Why Bitcoin and PMI are diverging

28:01 The PMI level that could ignite Bitcoin

32:33 Liquidity, AI, and the muted bull market

36:57 Could Bitcoin enter a supercycle?

40:13 What would break the Bitcoin power law?

44:06 How much Bitcoin do you need to retire?

51:02 Sminston’s new Bitcoin data platform

Vijay Boyapati, author of *The Bullish Case for Bitcoin*, joins me to discuss why Bitcoin may be in the “boring low” of its cycle, why he still sees a path to gold parity and ~20x upside, and what could drive the next bull market.

We also discuss AI and Bitcoin security, self-custody, Bitcoin price models, ETFs, treasury companies, and what a future Bitcoin standard could look like.

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction

00:19 What Vijay Got Right About Bitcoin

06:03 Is Vijay More Bullish Today?

08:07 How Vijay Values Bitcoin

10:36 What Stands Between Bitcoin and Gold Parity?

11:31 Understanding the Current Bitcoin Cycle

16:48 Is AI Sucking Capital Away From Bitcoin?

20:49 AI, Coldcard and Bitcoin Security

27:14 Will AI Make Bitcoin Software Stronger?

28:04 Stock-to-Flow, Power Law and Bitcoin Price Models

31:49 What Could Trigger the Next Bitcoin Bull Market?

34:13 Where Will the Next Wave of Capital Come From?

37:22 What Would a Bitcoin Standard Look Like?

39:55 Why Bear Markets Create Opportunity

41:39 Where to Follow Vijay

The Rational Root joins me to break down the Coldcard vulnerability, BIP-110, and the potential Bitcoin chain split. We also analyze on-chain momentum, Digital Credit, institutional demand, and whether Bitcoin’s 2026 bear-market bottom may already be in.

Timestamps:

0:00 Introduction

0:24 Coldcard vulnerability overview

4:46 Coin Days Destroyed and the Coldcard incident

8:41 Coldcard’s development failures

11:50 How AI could strengthen Bitcoin security

13:52 Why Coldcard barely moved Bitcoin’s price

17:16 The safest approach to self-custody

20:15 The risks of single-signature hardware wallets

23:12 BIP-110 and the potential Bitcoin chain split

23:33 Transaction fees after the Coldcard incident

25:08 Bitcoin Core, Knots, and OP_RETURN

28:41 The three ways data enters Bitcoin

33:00 Could BIP-110 make the UTXO problem worse?

35:29 Why Bitcoin’s spam problem may be overstated

37:21 Where Bitcoin is in the four-year cycle

38:35 Short-term holder momentum and capitulation

41:44 How short-term holder momentum works

43:06 Is the Bitcoin bottom already in?

45:45 Could Bitcoin fall to realized price?

47:44 Digital Credit and institutional demand

50:28 Strategy’s cash reserve and preferred stocks

51:09 Why this bear market may be less severe

54:20 Bitcoin’s disconnect from stocks

56:00 AI, macro, and the business cycle

59:15 The final day of the bear market

1:01:16 Bitcoin’s antifragility

1:01:56 Where to follow The Rational Root

Eric Jackson joins Joe Burnett to explain why he believes bitcoin could reach $50 million as AI agents transform global commerce and demand pristine digital collateral. They also discuss bitcoin’s recent underperformance, AI-powered market models, compounding through volatility, and why the next five years may be the most uncertain investing environment of our lifetimes.

Timestamps:

0:00 - Eric Jackson’s background in markets

2:14 - Finding Carvana before the comeback

3:01 - The OpenDoor trade and retail investor momentum

3:40 - How Eric got interested in bitcoin and crypto

6:26 - Building AI models before ChatGPT

9:23 - Volatility, conviction, and long-term investing

12:16 - Why Eric thinks bitcoin could reach $50 million

17:01 - Bitcoin as the “other coin” of the AI trade

17:28 - Why bitcoin has underperformed gold and AI stocks

20:16 - Is the AI boom propping up the market?

22:03 - What the world could look like in 2041

25:55 - AI, uncertainty, and the next five years

28:47 - Kevin Warsh, interest rates, and bitcoin

31:37 - Eric’s bitcoin stress indicator

40:27 - Compounding through bitcoin volatility

43:35 - Can markets be predicted with enough data?

48:20 - How AI changed market analysis

50:44 - Event Horizon IQ and AI-powered predictions

54:15 - Final thoughts and where to follow Eric

Joe Consorti joins The Mustard Seed Bitcoin Podcast to break down the Fed’s impossible choice between fighting inflation, protecting the economy, and keeping asset prices alive. We discuss why bitcoin may be the only asset accurately pricing today’s uncertainty, how AI is disrupting software but strengthening bitcoin’s long-term case, and why the dollar crash playbook may already be underway.

Timestamps:

0:00 - Joe Consorti returns

0:43 - Kevin Warsh’s impossible Fed dilemma

4:49 - Why the Fed may cut rates despite inflation

9:35 - Consumer sentiment hits 74-year lows

11:00 - The K-shaped economy: asset owners vs. everyone else

14:00 - Why they will crash the dollar before markets

17:43 - Why bitcoin is underperforming

21:08 - Is AI stealing capital from bitcoin?

25:10 - Why AI can disrupt software, but cannot disrupt bitcoin

31:02 - ISM PMI, the business cycle, and bitcoin’s bottom

34:37 - Why bitcoin broke from global M2

36:26 - What happens if oil, war, and inflation cool down?

37:17 - Why the S&P 500 could hit 10,000

40:43 - How AI expands the divide between asset owners and labor

45:31 - What bitcoiners may be wrong about

48:22 - “I missed bitcoin” and the unit bias trap

50:18 - Where to follow Joe Consorti

Bitcoin is evolving into a unique asset that responds to both crisis and liquidity expansion. In this conversation, we break down how macro policy, market structure, and institutional flows are reshaping bitcoin’s role in global portfolios. The result is a shift toward bitcoin as a core asset for long-term capital allocation.

Timestamps:

0:00 Introduction and current bitcoin market setup

0:23 Price levels, resistance, and defining a new bull market

1:30 Macro backdrop: war, uncertainty, and market reactions

2:40 Bitcoin as chaos insurance across global crises

4:00 Performance vs gold, S&P 500, and shifting perception

5:00 Liquidity asset vs risk-off asset: reconciling the paradox

6:30 Dual drivers: global liquidity and crisis demand

8:00 Declining volatility and shallower bitcoin drawdowns

9:30 Why traditional markets avoid prolonged recessions

12:00 Debt dynamics and the inevitability of policy response

14:00 Faster Fed response cycles from 2008 to today

16:00 The “big print” and bitcoin as the primary beneficiary

17:30 Role of technology and information flow in policy decisions

20:00 Monetary policy, asset inflation, and wealth concentration

21:30 Fastest stock market rally since 1982 and implications

23:30 V-shaped recoveries and forward market returns

25:00 Institutional positioning and bullish equity signals

27:00 Treasury market stress and liquidity risks

28:30 Why markets rise in both good and bad scenarios

30:00 Bitcoin’s origin and alignment with monetary debasement

31:30 Coffeezilla debate and digital credit misconceptions

35:00 STRC mechanics and sustainability of yield

40:00 Bitcoin balance sheet coverage and risk framing

43:30 Bitcoin decoupling from tech and software stocks

46:00 Long-term path toward an uncorrelated asset

46:30 What to own if bitcoin did not exist

48:30 Closing thoughts and where to follow

Digital Credit is expanding the total addressable market for Bitcoin and Bitcoin is expanding the total addressable market for Digital Credit. This conversation explores how that dynamic could scale reflexively and reshape global capital allocation.

Timestamps:

0:00 Introduction

1:24 Why Bitcoiners should care about digital credit

6:00 Bitcoin fixed income and a new asset class

8:30 The carry trade: earning Bitcoin yield

11:00 Transparent yield vs black-box risk

17:50 Why digital credit is attracting massive demand

20:00 “Printing Bitcoin with your Bitcoin”

24:59 Bitcoin as the unit of account (Roxom thesis)

34:00 The best Bitcoin investments (NVIDIA example)

38:41 Idle Bitcoin

47:01 The reflexive growth loop of digital credit

54:00 Closing thoughts: think in Bitcoin