The Hurdle Rate Podcast

In this week’s Hurdle Rate, the crew breaks down the $6 billion Binance hack, Triple C spreads blowing out, and why digital credit spreads may compress against junk debt. They also discuss what Fannie Mae preferreds teach about underwriting dividends, why both the gross and claims-adjusted mNAV metrics break down, and how to value a Bitcoin balance sheet as a stream of future cash flows. The episode closes on the ATM narrative and why ASST trades like perpetual leverage on Bitcoin.

Here’s the latest with Matt Cole, Jeff Walton, Ben Werkman, and Tim Kotzman.

Follow us on X: https://x.com/HurdleRatePod

Timestamps:

True North does not intend for anything herein to be considered an offer or sale of any securities, including those of Strive. True North encourages listeners to consult with their tax and investment advisors. Additional information on any securities or issuers referenced herein can be found in such issuers’ filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”), including any registration statements, prospectuses and prospectus supplements for each issuers’ securities. Listeners should read such documents and other documents incorporated by reference therein or that such issuer has filed with the SEC for more complete information. You may get these documents for free by visiting EDGAR on the SEC website at www.sec.gov.*

Any securities referred to herein, including those of True North’s parent Strive, are not collateralized by underlying bitcoin holdings and may be subordinated to senior claims. There are no guarantee of returns liquidity or future performance. The securities referred to herein are neither bank deposits, nor FDIC insured, nor regulated in the same way, and do not have the same regulatory and other protections as bank accounts, money market funds, treasuries, or similar investments and as a result may not be comparable investments. Current trading prices and effective yields may vary, current rates are not indicative of future rates, and in some cases rates are subject to frequent adjustments and may be significantly lower than discussed herein. Cash dividends are not guaranteed. In some cases, dividends have not been paid and may not be paid in the future. Ownership of securities referred to in herein does not confer ownership in the underlying assets, including bitcoin.

In this week’s Hurdle Rate, the crew breaks down Strive’s largest Bitcoin purchase ever, 6,182 BTC that brings total holdings to 43,000, plus the new $1 billion SATS ATM and hitting the 61% amplification target. They also discuss SpaceX’s $40 billion off balance sheet GPU deal, why perpetual digital credit backed by Bitcoin beats time-bound chip financing, and whether capital is the last moat in an AI world. The episode closes on the future of income and why risk may be mispriced across Bitcoin balance sheets.

Here’s the latest with Jeff Walton, Ben Werkman, Joe Burnett, Adam Livingston, and Tim Kotzman.

Follow us on X: https://x.com/HurdleRatePod

Timestamps:

True North does not intend for anything herein to be considered an offer or sale of any securities, including those of Strive. True North encourages listeners to consult with their tax and investment advisors. Additional information on any securities or issuers referenced herein can be found in such issuers’ filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”), including any registration statements, prospectuses and prospectus supplements for each issuers’ securities. Listeners should read such documents and other documents incorporated by reference therein or that such issuer has filed with the SEC for more complete information. You may get these documents for free by visiting EDGAR on the SEC website at www.sec.gov.*

Any securities referred to herein, including those of True North’s parent Strive, are not collateralized by underlying bitcoin holdings and may be subordinated to senior claims. There are no guarantee of returns liquidity or future performance. The securities referred to herein are neither bank deposits, nor FDIC insured, nor regulated in the same way, and do not have the same regulatory and other protections as bank accounts, money market funds, treasuries, or similar investments and as a result may not be comparable investments. Current trading prices and effective yields may vary, current rates are not indicative of future rates, and in some cases rates are subject to frequent adjustments and may be significantly lower than discussed herein. Cash dividends are not guaranteed. In some cases, dividends have not been paid and may not be paid in the future. Ownership of securities referred to in herein does not confer ownership in the underlying assets, including bitcoin.

In this week’s Hurdle Rate, the crew breaks down the $700 million SATS IPO, Strive’s first year as a public company, and growing from 5,886 to 36,818 Bitcoin through a bear market. They also discuss why SATS is a 15% fixed rate preferred junior to SATA, how the amplification engine was built, and what TradFi investors asked during a high yield selloff. The episode closes on the digital credit bubble and why Strive’s 18-month dividend reserve is stronger than it looks.

Here’s the latest with Matt Cole, Jeff Walton, Ben Werkman, Joe Burnett, and Adam Livingston.

Follow us on X: https://x.com/HurdleRatePod

Timestamps:

True North does not intend for anything herein to be considered an offer or sale of any securities, including those of Strive. True North encourages listeners to consult with their tax and investment advisors. Additional information on any securities or issuers referenced herein can be found in such issuers’ filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”), including any registration statements, prospectuses and prospectus supplements for each issuers’ securities. Listeners should read such documents and other documents incorporated by reference therein or that such issuer has filed with the SEC for more complete information. You may get these documents for free by visiting EDGAR on the SEC website at [www.sec.gov](http://www.sec.gov).*

Any securities referred to herein, including those of True North’s parent Strive, are not collateralized by underlying bitcoin holdings and may be subordinated to senior claims. There are no guarantee of returns liquidity or future performance. The securities referred to herein are neither bank deposits, nor FDIC insured, nor regulated in the same way, and do not have the same regulatory and other protections as bank accounts, money market funds, treasuries, or similar investments and as a result may not be comparable investments. Current trading prices and effective yields may vary, current rates are not indicative of future rates, and in some cases rates are subject to frequent adjustments and may be significantly lower than discussed herein. Cash dividends are not guaranteed. In some cases, dividends have not been paid and may not be paid in the future. Ownership of securities referred to in herein does not confer ownership in the underlying assets, including bitcoin.

In this week's Hurdle Rate, the crew breaks down Strive's latest 2,000 Bitcoin purchase, a Q3 that delivered a 99% total return, and the new $500 million SATA repurchase facility. They also discuss the goal of pushing amplification above 60% while Bitcoin is under $100K, why the market is too focused on the downside, and why US capital markets are the major leagues. The episode closes with a recap of the Bitcoin Treasuries Conference and why Luke Gromen's "paper gold" comparison doesn't fit digital credit.

Here's the latest with Matt Cole, Jeff Walton, Adam Livingston, and Tim Kotzman.

Timestamps:

True North does not intend for anything herein to be considered an offer or sale of any securities, including those of Strive. True North encourages listeners to consult with their tax and investment advisors. Additional information on any securities or issuers referenced herein can be found in such issuers’ filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”), including any registration statements, prospectuses and prospectus supplements for each issuers’ securities. Listeners should read such documents and other documents incorporated by reference therein or that such issuer has filed with the SEC for more complete information. You may get these documents for free by visiting EDGAR on the SEC website at [www.sec.gov](http://www.sec.gov).*

Any securities referred to herein, including those of True North’s parent Strive, are not collateralized by underlying bitcoin holdings and may be subordinated to senior claims. There are no guarantee of returns liquidity or future performance. The securities referred to herein are neither bank deposits, nor FDIC insured, nor regulated in the same way, and do not have the same regulatory and other protections as bank accounts, money market funds, treasuries, or similar investments and as a result may not be comparable investments. Current trading prices and effective yields may vary, current rates are not indicative of future rates, and in some cases rates are subject to frequent adjustments and may be significantly lower than discussed herein. Cash dividends are not guaranteed. In some cases, dividends have not been paid and may not be paid in the future. Ownership of securities referred to in herein does not confer ownership in the underlying assets, including bitcoin.

The Hurdle Rate goes LIVE at the Bitcoin Treasuries Conference in New York, back where the Strive and Semler deal started a year ago. The panel looks back on that deal, which brought the two companies' roughly 6,000 and 5,000 Bitcoin together, and explains why getting bigger was what made SATA possible. Matt explains the game theory behind SATA's daily dividend now that Strategy is following suit, and why the two companies are playing different games. The panel also covers why Strive is aiming for total returns rather than Sharpe ratio, Matt's call for $500K Bitcoin by 2030, and what comes next for Bitcoin balance sheet companies.

Here's the latest with Matt Cole, Jeff Walton, Ben Werkman, and Joe Burnett.

True North does not intend for anything herein to be considered an offer or sale of any securities, including those of Strive. True North encourages listeners to consult with their tax and investment advisors. Additional information on any securities or issuers referenced herein can be found in such issuers’ filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”), including any registration statements, prospectuses and prospectus supplements for each issuers’ securities. Listeners should read such documents and other documents incorporated by reference therein or that such issuer has filed with the SEC for more complete information. You may get these documents for free by visiting EDGAR on the SEC website at [www.sec.gov](http://www.sec.gov).*

Any securities referred to herein, including those of True North’s parent Strive, are not collateralized by underlying bitcoin holdings and may be subordinated to senior claims. There are no guarantee of returns liquidity or future performance. The securities referred to herein are neither bank deposits, nor FDIC insured, nor regulated in the same way, and do not have the same regulatory and other protections as bank accounts, money market funds, treasuries, or similar investments and as a result may not be comparable investments. Current trading prices and effective yields may vary, current rates are not indicative of future rates, and in some cases rates are subject to frequent adjustments and may be significantly lower than discussed herein. Cash dividends are not guaranteed. In some cases, dividends have not been paid and may not be paid in the future. Ownership of securities referred to in herein does not confer ownership in the underlying assets, including bitcoin.

In this week's Hurdle Rate, the crew breaks down Strive's latest 1,355 Bitcoin purchase, Bitcoin's breakout, and why short-term traders may miss the move. They also discuss how digital credit could reshape the next bull market, why liquidity is the clearest measure of trust, and what Michael Saylor and Warren Buffett teach about building balance-sheet companies. The episode closes on the affordability crisis and why Bitcoin may be the new American dream.

Here's the latest with Matt Cole, Jeff Walton, Ben Werkman, and Tim Kotzman.

Timestamps:

True North does not intend for anything herein to be considered an offer or sale of any securities, including those of Strive. True North encourages listeners to consult with their tax and investment advisors. Additional information on any securities or issuers referenced herein can be found in such issuers’ filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”), including any registration statements, prospectuses and prospectus supplements for each issuers’ securities. Listeners should read such documents and other documents incorporated by reference therein or that such issuer has filed with the SEC for more complete information. You may get these documents for free by visiting EDGAR on the SEC website at [www.sec.gov](http://www.sec.gov).*

Any securities referred to herein, including those of True North’s parent Strive, are not collateralized by underlying bitcoin holdings and may be subordinated to senior claims. There are no guarantee of returns liquidity or future performance. The securities referred to herein are neither bank deposits, nor FDIC insured, nor regulated in the same way, and do not have the same regulatory and other protections as bank accounts, money market funds, treasuries, or similar investments and as a result may not be comparable investments. Current trading prices and effective yields may vary, current rates are not indicative of future rates, and in some cases rates are subject to frequent adjustments and may be significantly lower than discussed herein. Cash dividends are not guaranteed. In some cases, dividends have not been paid and may not be paid in the future. Ownership of securities referred to in herein does not confer ownership in the underlying assets, including bitcoin.

This week on The Hurdle Rate: Adam Livingston joins Strive as VP of Investments, Strategy buys back $139 million of STRC with stretch back near 99, and Strive adds 469 Bitcoin at an average cost of $77,954 while hitting an all-time high market cap of $2.75 billion. Jeff makes the case that trust is the real infrastructure of capital markets, and why Bitcoin makes that trust legible. We get into the Clarity Act, AI doomerism, and why the crew thinks the frontier labs are using fear to build a moat ahead of their IPOs. Matt takes macro with the 10-year touching 5%, what a short-term Bitcoin flush would actually look like, and why it would be the dream setup. We close with a capital markets recap and Strive's one-year anniversary.

Here's the latest with Matt Cole, Jeff Walton, Ben Werkman, Adam Livingston, and Tim Kotzman.

Follow us on X: https://x.com/HurdleRatePod

Timestamps:

True North does not intend for anything herein to be considered an offer or sale of any securities, including those of Strive. True North encourages listeners to consult with their tax and investment advisors. Additional information on any securities or issuers referenced herein can be found in such issuers’ filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”), including any registration statements, prospectuses and prospectus supplements for each issuers’ securities. Listeners should read such documents and other documents incorporated by reference therein or that such issuer has filed with the SEC for more complete information. You may get these documents for free by visiting EDGAR on the SEC website at [www.sec.gov](http://www.sec.gov).*

Any securities referred to herein, including those of True North’s parent Strive, are not collateralized by underlying bitcoin holdings and may be subordinated to senior claims. There are no guarantee of returns liquidity or future performance. The securities referred to herein are neither bank deposits, nor FDIC insured, nor regulated in the same way, and do not have the same regulatory and other protections as bank accounts, money market funds, treasuries, or similar investments and as a result may not be comparable investments. Current trading prices and effective yields may vary, current rates are not indicative of future rates, and in some cases rates are subject to frequent adjustments and may be significantly lower than discussed herein. Cash dividends are not guaranteed. In some cases, dividends have not been paid and may not be paid in the future. Ownership of securities referred to in herein does not confer ownership in the underlying assets, including bitcoin.

In this week's Hurdle Rate, the crew discusses SATA hitting $999 million outstanding, Strategy doubling its STRC repurchase facility to $2 billion, and Strive adding another 1,000+ Bitcoin. Ben breaks down the art and science of running the desk and why amplification stays on. Matt makes the case that we've never seen a bull market with a perpetual preferred model in place. We also get into executive comp and shareholder alignment, and close on macro: what happens if the 10-year breaks 7%.

Here's the latest with Matt Cole, Jeff Walton, Ben Werkman, and Tim Kotzman.

Timestamps:

True North does not intend for anything herein to be considered an offer or sale of any securities, including those of Strive. True North encourages listeners to consult with their tax and investment advisors. Additional information on any securities or issuers referenced herein can be found in such issuers’ filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”), including any registration statements, prospectuses and prospectus supplements for each issuers’ securities. Listeners should read such documents and other documents incorporated by reference therein or that such issuer has filed with the SEC for more complete information. You may get these documents for free by visiting EDGAR on the SEC website at [www.sec.gov](http://www.sec.gov).*

Any securities referred to herein, including those of True North’s parent Strive, are not collateralized by underlying bitcoin holdings and may be subordinated to senior claims. There are no guarantee of returns liquidity or future performance. The securities referred to herein are neither bank deposits, nor FDIC insured, nor regulated in the same way, and do not have the same regulatory and other protections as bank accounts, money market funds, treasuries, or similar investments and as a result may not be comparable investments. Current trading prices and effective yields may vary, current rates are not indicative of future rates, and in some cases rates are subject to frequent adjustments and may be significantly lower than discussed herein. Cash dividends are not guaranteed. In some cases, dividends have not been paid and may not be paid in the future. Ownership of securities referred to in herein does not confer ownership in the underlying assets, including bitcoin.

In this week's Hurdle Rate, the crew unpacks a market that has come roaring back to life, from Strategy returning as a Bitcoin buyer at 0% net leverage to Strive growing its stack 14.4% in two weeks to 23,156 Bitcoin. Jeff brings back lessons from Bitcoin Asia, where investors are building structured finance on top of Bitcoin and digital credit faster than the US, and we dig into why STRC hasn't snapped back to par, how amplification and liquidity have to be earned rather than dialed in, and why Strategy's balance sheet may be the most misunderstood credit story in the market. We then take on MSCI's proposed exclusion of digital asset treasury companies and why it would effectively make index providers investment advisers, before closing on macro: fiscal dominance, why long-end yields go higher whether the Fed hikes or cuts, and why this is a backdrop Bitcoin has never seen.

Here's the latest with Matt Cole, Jeff Walton, Ben Werkman, and Tim Kotzman.

Timestamps:

True North does not intend for anything herein to be considered an offer or sale of any securities, including those of Strive. True North encourages listeners to consult with their tax and investment advisors. Additional information on any securities or issuers referenced herein can be found in such issuers’ filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”), including any registration statements, prospectuses and prospectus supplements for each issuers’ securities. Listeners should read such documents and other documents incorporated by reference therein or that such issuer has filed with the SEC for more complete information. You may get these documents for free by visiting EDGAR on the SEC website at [www.sec.gov](http://www.sec.gov).*

Any securities referred to herein, including those of True North’s parent Strive, are not collateralized by underlying bitcoin holdings and may be subordinated to senior claims. There are no guarantee of returns liquidity or future performance. The securities referred to herein are neither bank deposits, nor FDIC insured, nor regulated in the same way, and do not have the same regulatory and other protections as bank accounts, money market funds, treasuries, or similar investments and as a result may not be comparable investments. Current trading prices and effective yields may vary, current rates are not indicative of future rates, and in some cases rates are subject to frequent adjustments and may be significantly lower than discussed herein. Cash dividends are not guaranteed. In some cases, dividends have not been paid and may not be paid in the future. Ownership of securities referred to in herein does not confer ownership in the underlying assets, including bitcoin.