AI-powered search engines have clawed a foothold in the critical search market that controls distribution on the open web. Media management consuling firm Activate estimates 15 million people are using these answer engines rather than Google, which is adding AI summarization to its results. By 2028, Activate expects that to rise to 36 million. The open question is whether publishers can stem this tide.

Michael Wolf, the CEO of Activate, sees a fundamental shift in the search market, as generative AI can currently handle about 40% of searches as an open web discovery tool. He expects the rest of searches will follow suit over the next five years as the fundamental nature of the open web changes. This will lead to search becoming the front end to what Wolf calls "gated web discovery" and eventually "discovery-led transactions."