The Peter Schiff Show Podcast

January 12, 2018

Obvious Negative Factors Hiding in Plain Sight

This Friday ahead of the three-day holiday weekend, all three markets are ignoring the ominous warning signs that are building by the day. They're registering new highs, the Dow up better than 200 points, 228, closing over 25,800; S&P, NASDAQ both hitting record highs today.  To me, this is very reminiscent of 1987, in that the stock market is rising despite the fact that there are very obvious negative factors that are building and are hiding in plain sight.

CPI Number is About to Go Up

The CPI came out today and the headline number was in line, +.1%.  Year over year, though that's still a 2.1% increase in headline CPI. But, unless you're asleep, you have to realize that the number is about to go up. Look at what is happening in commodity prices.  Oil prices are up big today, over $64/barrel.  This is the highest oil prices have closed since November of 2014.  And, if you go 4 months earlier than that, we were over $100. So, if we re-trace that move, we could actually hit $80-$100 this year.  This is an ominous sign for inflation and it's also going to be a big problem for the U.S. economy. That means that headline number is going up.

Poor Trade: Dump Gold on Higher Inflation Numbers

Now the Core CPI, which everybody seems to look at, year over year, that one's only up .8%.  That's not going to last either. We're going to be over 2% on the Core, I think, in a couple of months. The number was up .3 for the most recent month - they were looking for +.2.  In fact - this is funny - right before the number came out, gold was up about $10 and the dollar index was down about .50.  Then the CPI number comes out, and the traders immediately see this inflation number that is higher than expected on the Core. What is their initial reaction? They dump gold, gold lost half its gains, and they bought the dollar.  The dollar gained about 2/5 of its losses.

Why Aren't Higher Rates Bad for the Stock Market?

Why is that? Why would people think higher inflation is bad for gold and good for the dollar?  The reason is, they think, "Oh, higher inflation?  The Fed is going to raise rates." So what?  The Fed has been raising rates - we all know the Fed is going to raise rates. But if higher rates are bad for gold, why aren't they bad for the stock market? The stock market should be affected by higher interest rates - but the market somehow thinks higher interest rates will be bad for gold.

Gift from the Traders

The reality is, higher inflation is great for gold.  That's why people buy gold.  It's a hedge against inflation.  So the more inflation, the more demand there is for gold.  The opposite of the dollar:  by definition high inflation means the dollar is losing purchasing power. So, if the dollar is losing purchasing power, that is bad for the dollar. And by the end of the day, that's exactly what happened.  Gold finished the day up about $16.  So if you bought that ridiculous move, a gift from the traders, you had a nice profit.

January 10, 2018

Bells are Ringing but Nobody is Listening

They always say that nobody rings a bell at the top.  And that saying relates to the stock market, investors; there's never a clear warning sign, supposedly, of when to get out. My experience is actually the opposite.  I think many bells ring, not necessarily at the very top, but certainly close to it, it's just that they're ignored; or if they are heard, they are rationalized away.

China says No to More U.S. Treasuries

Another such bell was rung overnight.  We had a Bloomberg report this morning coming out of China that the Chinese government is going to stop buying U.S. Treasuries.  This is potentially an ominous sign because a) China is the largest buyer and owner of U.S. Treasuries in the world, but, b) we just cut taxes!  We cut taxes and not spending, so we are financing these tax cuts by borrowing more money, bu running bigger deficits, by selling more bonds.

Who is Left to Buy?

And if the largest buyer and owner of those bonds, is saying "No mas!", well that is a big problem. Who is going to step up to replace the Chinese? Also, if the Chinese aren't going to buy, who else is not going to buy? Why would anyone want to buy U.S. Treasuries?  Even if you did not prescribe to the gloom & doom type perspective that I do, if you're just a typical investor looking at historic bond prices, Why would you want to buy U.S. Treasuries now? Aren't there other assets you'd rather own than extremely low-yielding U.S. Treasuries?

Will China Sell?

So if the Chinese don't want to buy, it stands to reason a lot of other people don't want to buy either, especially if they know the Chinese are not buying, does that mean they're selling? If they don't think Treasuries are worth buying, are they worth owning?  You would think if they don't want to buy any more, they might want to start selling.  In fact, when Wall Street puts a hold on something, that means sell, right? So, if China is putting a hold on U.S. Treasuries, that means, "Get the Hell out of U.S. Treasuries."

China and the Fed Letting Treasuries Mature

Another thing is that the Chinese don't have to necessarily sell their Treasuries.  They can just let them mature. After that is what the Federal Reserve is claiming it is going to do.  It is going to shrink its balance sheet (in theory) by not rolling over maturing securities.  The Chinese government will do the same thing. Where is the U.S. Treasury going to get the money to redeem the securities? They can't. That is the problem.

Financial Networks Silent on the Problem

It is amazing how few people are worried about a problem so potentially ominous as this one.  Remember, nobody was worried about the 2008 Financial Crisis.  You could turn on any financial network and nobody was worried - I was the only guy.  To the extent that I said anything about what was going to happen, I got laughed at.

Bigger Crisis Ahead

Now, you don't even have that.  I remember when some networks were criticized after the fact about the lack of coverage of the warning signs in '06, and '07 and '08, networks would point to the fact that they had me on. The next time, they won't be able to say that because they won't have me on anymore. They don't have anyone on who is pointing out what should be obvious to all their other guests.  All the other guests are missing an even bigger crisis than they missed before.

It's All About Debt

What was the Financial Crisis about? It was about too much debt. People took out too much debt. We have even more debt now. Back then, the big problem was rising interest rates.  The Housing Crisis started the Financial Crisis.  I pointed this out for years. The problem was teaser rates.  People were buying homes that they really couldn't afford, but they could afford to make payments on the introductory teaser rates. The first couple of years,

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January 10, 2018

Bells are Ringing but Nobody is Listening

They always say that nobody rings a bell at the top.  And that saying relates to the stock market, investors; there's never a clear warning sign, supposedly, of when to get out. My experience is actually the opposite.  I think many bells ring, not necessarily at the very top, but certainly close to it, it's just that they're ignored; or if they are heard, they are rationalized away.

China says No to More U.S. Treasuries

Another such bell was rung overnight.  We had a Bloomberg report this morning coming out of China that the Chinese government is going to stop buying U.S. Treasuries.  This is potentially an ominous sign because a) China is the largest buyer and owner of U.S. Treasuries in the world, but, b) we just cut taxes!  We cut taxes and not spending, so we are financing these tax cuts by borrowing more money, bu running bigger deficits, by selling more bonds.

Who is Left to Buy?

And if the largest buyer and owner of those bonds, is saying "No mas!", well that is a big problem. Who is going to step up to replace the Chinese? Also, if the Chinese aren't going to buy, who else is not going to buy? Why would anyone want to buy U.S. Treasuries?  Even if you did not prescribe to the gloom & doom type perspective that I do, if you're just a typical investor looking at historic bond prices, Why would you want to buy U.S. Treasuries now? Aren't there other assets you'd rather own than extremely low-yielding U.S. Treasuries?

Will China Sell?

So if the Chinese don't want to buy, it stands to reason a lot of other people don't want to buy either, especially if they know the Chinese are not buying, does that mean they're selling? If they don't think Treasuries are worth buying, are they worth owning?  You would think if they don't want to buy any more, they might want to start selling.  In fact, when Wall Street puts a hold on something, that means sell, right? So, if China is putting a hold on U.S. Treasuries, that means, "Get the Hell out of U.S. Treasuries."

China and the Fed Letting Treasuries Mature

Another thing is that the Chinese don't have to necessarily sell their Treasuries.  They can just let them mature. After that is what the Federal Reserve is claiming it is going to do.  It is going to shrink its balance sheet (in theory) by not rolling over maturing securities.  The Chinese government will do the same thing. Where is the U.S. Treasury going to get the money to redeem the securities? They can't. That is the problem.

Financial Networks Silent on the Problem

It is amazing how few people are worried about a problem so potentially ominous as this one.  Remember, nobody was worried about the 2008 Financial Crisis.  You could turn on any financial network and nobody was worried - I was the only guy.  To the extent that I said anything about what was going to happen, I got laughed at.

Bigger Crisis Ahead

Now, you don't even have that.  I remember when some networks were criticized after the fact about the lack of coverage of the warning signs in '06, and '07 and '08, networks would point to the fact that they had me on. The next time, they won't be able to say that because they won't have me on anymore. They don't have anyone on who is pointing out what should be obvious to all their other guests.  All the other guests are missing an even bigger crisis than they missed before.

It's All About Debt

What was the Financial Crisis about? It was about too much debt. People took out too much debt. We have even more debt now. Back then, the big problem was rising interest rates.  The Housing Crisis started the Financial Crisis.  I pointed this out for years. The problem was teaser rates.  People were buying homes that they really couldn't afford, but they could afford to make payments on the introductory teaser rates. The first couple of years,

January 8, 2017

Atlanta Fed's Q4 2017 GDP Estimate at Record Low

The Atlanta Fed did downwardly revise its estimate of Q4 GDP as a result of the numbers that were released on Friday.  The downward revision took their estimate from 3.2% down to 2.7%. 2.7% is the lowest the estimate has been since they began estimating 2017 Q4.  In fact, earlier on, in October or November the Atlanta Fed was up to 4.5% for their 2017 GDP. So as the U.S. stock market was rising to an all-time record high the Atlanta Fed was downwardly revising its forecast for Q4 of 2017 to its record low.

Déja Vu All Over Again

Let's assume that the Atlanta Fed is accurate at 2.7%, maybe they're still being too optimistic, but let's say they hit the nail on the head and we get 2.6%. Then the entire year of 2017 would see about 2.5% GDP growth.  Now, how does that compare to Obama?

Half of Obama's Second Term Beats Trump's Economic Numbers

Everybody is talking as if the economy is rip-roaring now; it's so much better not under Trump than it was under Obama's second term. I'd rather look at the second term because a) it's closer in time to where we are right now, and b) his first term includes the Great Recession that he inherited. So if you look at Obama's second term, GDP growth averaged 2.2% for the entire 4 years.  If that's the case, 2.5% is a little bit better, but if you take 2 of those years, 2014 and 2015, GDP grew by more than 2.5%.  I think we were at 2.56 and 2.9%. In other words, half of Obama's years as President beat the first year of Trump as far as GDP.

Economic Growth Hasn't Happened

So to me, 2017 just looks like another year of Obama's presidency. Nothing's really different.  2.5% fits in nicely with Obama's economic numbers.  Everybody is talking about all this great economic growth that's taking place - it hasn't happened!

Market Soaring in Spite of Lukewarm GDP

Granted, there are people saying, we haven't really had the tax cuts yet; the tax cuts don't take effect until next year. That hasn't stopped the stock market from soaring - obviously they are looking forward. Maybe the economy has looked forward. Maybe there has been an increase in investment in anticipation of these cuts. Maybe we've gotten a lot of the benefit and despite that we're still only at 2.5%.

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January 8, 2017

Atlanta Fed's Q4 2017 GDP Estimate at Record Low

The Atlanta Fed did downwardly revise its estimate of Q4 GDP as a result of the numbers that were released on Friday.  The downward revision took their estimate from 3.2% down to 2.7%. 2.7% is the lowest the estimate has been since they began estimating 2017 Q4.  In fact, earlier on, in October or November the Atlanta Fed was up to 4.5% for their 2017 GDP. So as the U.S. stock market was rising to an all-time record high the Atlanta Fed was downwardly revising its forecast for Q4 of 2017 to its record low.

Déja Vu All Over Again

Let's assume that the Atlanta Fed is accurate at 2.7%, maybe they're still being too optimistic, but let's say they hit the nail on the head and we get 2.6%. Then the entire year of 2017 would see about 2.5% GDP growth.  Now, how does that compare to Obama?

Half of Obama's Second Term Beats Trump's Economic Numbers

Everybody is talking as if the economy is rip-roaring now; it's so much better not under Trump than it was under Obama's second term. I'd rather look at the second term because a) it's closer in time to where we are right now, and b) his first term includes the Great Recession that he inherited. So if you look at Obama's second term, GDP growth averaged 2.2% for the entire 4 years.  If that's the case, 2.5% is a little bit better, but if you take 2 of those years, 2014 and 2015, GDP grew by more than 2.5%.  I think we were at 2.56 and 2.9%. In other words, half of Obama's years as President beat the first year of Trump as far as GDP.

Economic Growth Hasn't Happened

So to me, 2017 just looks like another year of Obama's presidency. Nothing's really different.  2.5% fits in nicely with Obama's economic numbers.  Everybody is talking about all this great economic growth that's taking place - it hasn't happened!

Market Soaring in Spite of Lukewarm GDP

Granted, there are people saying, we haven't really had the tax cuts yet; the tax cuts don't take effect until next year. That hasn't stopped the stock market from soaring - obviously they are looking forward. Maybe the economy has looked forward. Maybe there has been an increase in investment in anticipation of these cuts. Maybe we've gotten a lot of the benefit and despite that we're still only at 2.5%.

Schiffreport: January 5, 2018

Trump: We Will Win on Trade

Earlier this morning the government released the December Nonfarm payrolls report, AKA the Jobs Number.  But rather than start with that, I want to talk about another number that was released at the exact same time. It unfortunately gets very little attention in the media, in fact nobody has really paid attention to this number since the late 1980's - early 1990's.  Of course, I am talking about the trade deficit.  In fact when Donald Trump ran for office, he actually made the trade deficit an issue in his campaign, which was quite rare.  In fact, Donald Trump said that we were losing on trade and he was correct.  He promised that if he was elected, we would be winning on trade.

Biggest Trade Deficit in almost Six Years

Well we just got the number for November, and it was the biggest trade deficit in almost 6 years.  $50.5 billion. What's more important than that number, look beneath the surface of the number that's bad and it gets a lot worse.  If you take out oil, and America is still a net importer of oil - but if you just focus on the rest of the trade deficit, it was an all time high.

Oil Headed Higher

The biggest monthly trade deficit ever.  We finally broke the record that I believe was set when Bush was President. But think about this: oil prices were pretty low in 2017.  We just started to rise, in fact we closed the year above $60/barrel for the first time in 4 years. So imagine how much higher these trade deficits are going to be if the price of oil returns to $80-$100, which it was earlier in the year when it dropped below $60/barrel. In fact, I think that's exactly where it's headed.

All-Time Record Low against the Yuan

Also, look at what's happening with the dollar. The dollar fell last year for the first time in 5 years. It was he largest annual decline in 14 years, measured against the dollar index.  But look at the Chinese yuan.  the dollar fell by the most against the yuan in 9 years. In fact, I think we're going to hit an all-time record low for the dollar against that currency next year.

Upward Pressure on an Already Rising U.S. Trade Deficit

If you remember, when the year began, all of the strategists on Wall Street were universally bullish on the dollar and bearish on everything including the Renminbi. A lot of people were shorting the Chinese currency. In fact, they were as bullish on the dollar back then as they are on the U.S. stock market right now. Of course, the markets did the opposite of what they expected. If oil prices keep rising, and the dollar keeps falling, that is going to put even more upward pressure on an already rising U.S. Trade Deficit.

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Schiffreport: January 5, 2018

Trump: We Will Win on Trade

Earlier this morning the government released the December Nonfarm payrolls report, AKA the Jobs Number.  But rather than start with that, I want to talk about another number that was released at the exact same time. It unfortunately gets very little attention in the media, in fact nobody has really paid attention to this number since the late 1980's - early 1990's.  Of course, I am talking about the trade deficit.  In fact when Donald Trump ran for office, he actually made the trade deficit an issue in his campaign, which was quite rare.  In fact, Donald Trump said that we were losing on trade and he was correct.  He promised that if he was elected, we would be winning on trade.

Biggest Trade Deficit in almost Six Years

Well we just got the number for November, and it was the biggest trade deficit in almost 6 years.  $50.5 billion. What's more important than that number, look beneath the surface of the number that's bad and it gets a lot worse.  If you take out oil, and America is still a net importer of oil - but if you just focus on the rest of the trade deficit, it was an all time high.

Oil Headed Higher

The biggest monthly trade deficit ever.  We finally broke the record that I believe was set when Bush was President. But think about this: oil prices were pretty low in 2017.  We just started to rise, in fact we closed the year above $60/barrel for the first time in 4 years. So imagine how much higher these trade deficits are going to be if the price of oil returns to $80-$100, which it was earlier in the year when it dropped below $60/barrel. In fact, I think that's exactly where it's headed.

All-Time Record Low against the Yuan

Also, look at what's happening with the dollar. The dollar fell last year for the first time in 5 years. It was he largest annual decline in 14 years, measured against the dollar index.  But look at the Chinese yuan.  the dollar fell by the most against the yuan in 9 years. In fact, I think we're going to hit an all-time record low for the dollar against that currency next year.

Upward Pressure on an Already Rising U.S. Trade Deficit

If you remember, when the year began, all of the strategists on Wall Street were universally bullish on the dollar and bearish on everything including the Renminbi. A lot of people were shorting the Chinese currency. In fact, they were as bullish on the dollar back then as they are on the U.S. stock market right now. Of course, the markets did the opposite of what they expected. If oil prices keep rising, and the dollar keeps falling, that is going to put even more upward pressure on an already rising U.S. Trade Deficit.

Market Ignoring Economic Realities

All three of three of the U.S. stock market indexes are ringing in the New Year with new record highs.  The market was up on the first trading day of the year; up again today.  NASDAQ composite is the star, 7065 today up another .84% - a new record high. The same thing with the S&P and the Dow.  The Dow is now almost at 25,000; it closed at 24,922.  Of course, everybody is ignoring, though, the economic reality.

What Do Oil Price Increases Imply for the Economy?

Look at the price of oil, up again today - 61.77 is the close, up 1.40 - we were up yesterday. This is the highest oil has closed in over 2 years.  If we get above 62.75 that would be the highest close since December of 2014. It was all between July and December of 2014 that oil prices collapsed from above $100/barrel to below $40. I think this year we have clear sailing to $80 - $100 oil this year.  Nobody is talking about what this implies for the U.S economy. This is a gigantic tax hike for consumers. Doubling the price of oil over a 2-year period is going to have a major impact on the cost of everything.

Watch Commodities Prices

It's not just energy costs.  Commodities in general are strong. Gold was up $15 on the first trading day of the year; we were down about $4-5 today, getting back some of the gains, so gold is off to a good start. Some of the gold stocks were very strong yesterday.  Across the board, the resource sector is going up.  In fact the ironic thing is that we got the release of the FOMC minutes today and as soon as the minutes came out, gold actually sold off, and clawed its way back to down a little bit on the day.

Fed Expectations of Low Inflation

If you look at those minutes, the only concerns that the FOMC minutes expressed about inflation was that it was still too low.  They are worried that inflation expectations are still too low, that the public, or investors still don't expect enough inflation, which shows you how clueless the public is.  If they don't think there is going to be inflation, they're wrong.  Those expectations are totally wrong.

Hitting 2% Inflation Out of the Park

People are ignoring what is going on in the currency markets, the commodities markets, the bond markets.  All of these markets are flashing inflation, according to the way you measure it: Consumer prices producer prices, they're all going to be going up, and the Fed, is still worried that they are not going to be going up fast enough, that they're not going to hit their 2% goal. They are going to hit that out of the park.  They are going to be looking at 2% in the distant rear view mirror.

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Market Ignoring Economic Realities

All three of three of the U.S. stock market indexes are ringing in the New Year with new record highs.  The market was up on the first trading day of the year; up again today.  NASDAQ composite is the star, 7065 today up another .84% - a new record high. The same thing with the S&P and the Dow.  The Dow is now almost at 25,000; it closed at 24,922.  Of course, everybody is ignoring, though, the economic reality.

What Do Oil Price Increases Imply for the Economy?

Look at the price of oil, up again today - 61.77 is the close, up 1.40 - we were up yesterday. This is the highest oil has closed in over 2 years.  If we get above 62.75 that would be the highest close since December of 2014. It was all between July and December of 2014 that oil prices collapsed from above $100/barrel to below $40. I think this year we have clear sailing to $80 - $100 oil this year.  Nobody is talking about what this implies for the U.S economy. This is a gigantic tax hike for consumers. Doubling the price of oil over a 2-year period is going to have a major impact on the cost of everything.

Watch Commodities Prices

It's not just energy costs.  Commodities in general are strong. Gold was up $15 on the first trading day of the year; we were down about $4-5 today, getting back some of the gains, so gold is off to a good start. Some of the gold stocks were very strong yesterday.  Across the board, the resource sector is going up.  In fact the ironic thing is that we got the release of the FOMC minutes today and as soon as the minutes came out, gold actually sold off, and clawed its way back to down a little bit on the day.

Fed Expectations of Low Inflation

If you look at those minutes, the only concerns that the FOMC minutes expressed about inflation was that it was still too low.  They are worried that inflation expectations are still too low, that the public, or investors still don't expect enough inflation, which shows you how clueless the public is.  If they don't think there is going to be inflation, they're wrong.  Those expectations are totally wrong.

Hitting 2% Inflation Out of the Park

People are ignoring what is going on in the currency markets, the commodities markets, the bond markets.  All of these markets are flashing inflation, according to the way you measure it: Consumer prices producer prices, they're all going to be going up, and the Fed, is still worried that they are not going to be going up fast enough, that they're not going to hit their 2% goal. They are going to hit that out of the park.  They are going to be looking at 2% in the distant rear view mirror.

2017 Optimism

This is my final podcast for 2017.  I just watched the U.S. Stock Market ring the closing bell for the final time in 2017. Everybody is excited; everybody is optimistic.  I spent most of the day watching the financial coverage, mostly on CNBC to see the attitude and the types of coverage the market has received.

The Dow Gained 5,000 Points in a Single Year

Of course this is a record year in the stock market; an all-time record high in the Dow.  I think this is the first year that the Dow has ever gained 5,000 points in a single year, in fact the Dow was up every month of 2017 - that's never happened before in history.  I think we've gone 14 consecutive months without a decline.  Not only were we up every month, but 2017 represented the year ever of the lowest stock market volatility. So as the market was going up, it barely ever went down. So no one was nervous.

Unprecedented Rise Occurs at the End

To me, this type of unprecedented rise does not happen at the beginning of something. It happens at the end. Anybody who believes that 2018 is going to be more of the same is in for a rude awakening. I think the final minutes of the trading day set the tone for next year. Even though the markets were up every month of this year, they were not up in the final week. The Dow and the S&P were both down this week. The entire decline for the week happened today, actually in the last 10 or 15 minutes. The Dow was down about 30 going into the last 15 minutes and it ended up -118. The Dow was never really positive today, same with the S&P.

Last Year Optimism was all about the Dollar

The NASDAQ was the biggest gainer of the year with well over a 30% gain. The Dow up about 25%, the S&P up about 19%, so certainly a big year, but to me, this is the end of this big bull market. The action in the final minutes may be an indication of what is to come. I have not seen this much universal optimism on an asset since last year at this time with respect to the U.S. dollar. Everybody was bullish on the dollar. In fact, the big short was the Chinese Yuan.  All these big hedge funds were shorting the yuan - it's going to collapse. What was I saying a year ago?  I said these trades were going to blow up. anybody shorting the yuan was going to lose money.

Dollar Index Down Almost 10% this Year

What has happened to the dollar this year? The dollar index is down almost 10% for the year.  This is the first annual decline for the dollar since 2012, so it is the first drop in 5 years, but it is the biggest drop in 13 years. The last time the dollar was down more than this was 2003.  What happened in 2003? The dollar fell in 2003-4-5-6-7 and 2008. It didn't stop falling until August of 2008 and the only reason it stopped falling is because it was saved by the financial crisis.

 

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